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Total Cost of Ownership - Diesel to EV.

  • 23-12-2021 9:58am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 171 ✭✭ gaming_needs90


    Hi all,

    Am moving to a new job in the year that will have me travel roughly 200k twice a week (200km one way, 200km back). I currently have a '10 Passat diesel that probably does 5.8+ l/100km on a good run and 9l/100km around town. I am wondering would it be beneficial to move to an EV in the future?

    From a rudimentary calculator online, I see that I could save in the order of 1300 a year or so. More with purely night rate charging, less with any street/fast charging. Obviously, we are comparing apples to oranges if I was to get a new EV (Was looking at the very competitively priced MG ZS EV) compared to an 11-year-old banger. The calculation that I am less sure about is the total cost of ownership here. Does anyone know of any calculator online that takes this into account? I suppose its the depreciation I am worried about.

    Thanks



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 7,553 ✭✭✭ tom1ie


    Do you have any monthly repayments on the Passat?

    If not and you own it outright you would have to factor in the monthly payments on the cost of paying back the EV which will probably wipe out any fuel savings etc.

    However if you are buying a new car/nearly new you’ll have repayments anyway?

    Unless you are buying in cash?



  • Registered Users Posts: 171 ✭✭ gaming_needs90


    Nope, bought it for cash a few years ago. It would cost me money overall alright but I suppose would the fuel savings make the difference small overall? I wouldn't mind that then, as diesel cars are only going to lose more and more value as the years go on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭ sh81722


    Is the a guaranteed charging opportunity at the end of the 200 km run and is it all motorway? This will dictate a lot how much you need to spend on an EV. I suspect that ZS EV is not the most efficient shape of a car for motorway runs, but on the other hand the price is good and 70 kWh battery of the LR is huge in its price range.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭ JimmyVik


    We have an EV. We worked out (using an energy monitor, because the car itself uses more Kwh to charge than it claims to use eg energy monitor says it put 20kwh into the car, but car said it only used 16kwh that day and car was charged to 100% both the night before and the night after) that charging on night rate electricity we save about 6c per Km over the diesel in fuel.

    So every 1000km saves us €60 in fuel cost.

    The EV costs €150 a year to service apart from this year we had to get 2 new barings and that cost a fortune, but you could have that in any car. Diesel costs €300 for service.

    Tax is €120 in the EV, €300 in the Diesel.

    So after that the cost difference will be the purchase price, which for an EV is very high. Especially since you have a car paid for already.

    Work out your cost per km on your own car and compare.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,553 ✭✭✭ tom1ie


    I suppose the question is how much will monthly repayments be?

    If you are buying a new car anyway then you will see savings from an EV.

    If you are buying a used ICE for cash, then you won’t have monthly repayments.

    it’s all about the net saving/spend monthly.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭ ec_pc


    We are moving from Diesel to Electric and I reckon we will easily save in the region of €2,200 to €2,500 a year on Diesel compared to Electric. That's based on much reduced covid mileage, current diesel price and a very competitive night rate from energia. Reduced tax, insurance and servicing on top of that. We also have solar panels so excess electricity generated at home will go to the car. Our tradein costs €100 to fill with diesel

    I would have moved to electric years ago but always thought they were very overpriced (taking Kona / Soul as examples). The higher cost of an CV essentially eliminated the potential savings. As I said in other posts, the big difference for us this time is huge equity in the trade in which we would not have got last year.

    So, for us it all adds up. Also I think it's madness to buy new diesel or petrol cars now, I firmly believe they market for these in a few years will be much different with much reduced values for ICE cars. Reminds me of a Skoda salesguy trying to sell me a petrol Kodiaq........

    Post edited by ec_pc on


  • Moderators Posts: 12,067 ✭✭✭✭ Black_Knight


    MG ZS EV will not get 400km on 100km or higher speed roads. Be skeptical of WLTP quoted ranges. My rule of thumb is to knock off 20% straight away. That's a more realistic daily driving range. Another 20% off for motorway driving.

    Some was covered already, but...

    1. Have you charging at your mid way point, which I assume is your work? All the better if it's free, but if it's not, you'd only need maybe 20% to get you home - maybe 14kWh twice a week at ~30c/kWh (€450 a year)
    2. 400km twice a week (40kkm/year) you 100% should get a night rate. Electricity is going up a bit, but a good night rate would see you drive at 1c/km (€400). A regular day rate could see that at 3c/km (€1200). Those costs are just for that 400km round trip every week of the year. Given 5.8l/100km that 40kkm would take about 2400litres of diesel at ~ €1.60/l = €3800, so you'd be saving €3400 per year in fuel at the very least (assuming a good night rate).
    3. Any more driving outside of that 400km round trip is more savings, but with tax and servicing i'd say you'd easily save €4000 a year, likely something < €5000 a year in savings i'd imagine.
    4. If you're financing, take that from your yearly savings above
    5. If you're regularly public charging (possible, as I don't think you'll get an EV to do your 400km commute (do give more detail) without charging), take that from your yearly savings above.
    6. Obvious one, but depreciation is going to be far more per year on a new car, but if you're comparing a 2-3 year old ICE vs a brand new EV then the EV will depreciate more. Certainly one to consider if it's a short ownership.
    7. Doing 400km twice a week, don't waste your time considering a PHEV. They'll do 50km on full electric, and the premium paid for a PHEV vs a regular combustion engine car is not worth it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 772 ✭✭✭ JPup


    That’s not the only reason to change though I assume. They’ll be getting a much nicer driving experience with loads of new toys etc. I don’t get this impression this is being done purely with the bottom line in mind.



  • Registered Users Posts: 666 ✭✭✭ MightyMunster




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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,796 ✭✭✭ Grumpypants


    The current used market is a bit skewed and prices are a bit higher than normal, so no guarantee of future price. Because the MG is so new there is no long term data to use to predict devaluation, but the old MG has really held its value. In the UK, cars under a year old are being offered the full purchase price to trade it in to the new one.


    The new MG has been given a bump in the FMV that PCP give too. So that is generally a good sign that they expect the car to hold its value. EVs do hold a little better than petrol or diesel too. So you are better off getting into a new EV over a new petrol or diesel.


    I've just put a deposit on that new MG ZS you are looking at, for the spec on it and the price nothing comes close.

    It was €36.5k on the road (that is the car and all the dealer charges etc).

    The next cost is the charge point. MG will give you a free charge point box (but not installed). They have installers they recommend and you can claim back €600 in a grant so that installation shouldn't cost you anything extra.

    Tax is €120 for an EV. I think the Passat is 200 or 270? So a little extra saving there moving forward.

    Final cost is insurance. This should drop, moving from a 12 year old car to a new one with loads of safety features like automatically braking if a pedestrian steps in front of you and MG Pilot to keep you in lane and at the same speed of the car in front on motor ways, it even reads road signs and doesn't let you speed (if that setting is turned on) should net you a lower premium. When I moved from my 2009 A4 it dropped from €700 to the minimum premium of €280. So maybe there is another few hundred of a saving but that one is a bit more individual.


    So total initial outlay (cost of car, tax and insurance) is about €37k.


    Then the savings start recouping that.


    If the Passat does on average 25miles per gallon. And a gallon of diesel is €7.50 (4.5 litres X €1.65)


    The ZS does 3.5miles per KW. So it will use 7.15kw to do 25 miles. Even at the most expensive electricity rate of 25cent a KW. You are still looking at just under €1.80 to do the same 25 miles.


    If you get on a normal introduction discount rate that could drop to €1.20 or even 0.80 on night rates.


    Every 25miles you drive it's almost a fiver in your pocket. Or over your 400km round trip it's €50 saved. If you do that once a week then €50 a week for a year is €2600. And that is just on your one 400km round trip. If you take in all your other day to day driving then that could start heading toward the €3500-€4000 ball park.


    2010 Passat needs an annual NCT, New car won't. The passat is also in the age range where maintenance could be in the high hundreds to 1k a year.


    MG has a 7 year warranty. So you just need the service.


    So the saving on tax, insurance, diesel, maintenance could reasonably be around 5k each year.

    The above is simple enough back of the envelope figures but it would suggest that if you swap the car pretty much pays for itself over the next 7 years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,028 ✭✭✭ Lantus


    Like a lot of people you are seeing ev as the future. The next 3 to 4 years will be the tipping point towards en mass transition to ev. I have a 4 year old octavia but I am sure it will be my last ice. I am busy saving for an ev in 2 to 3 years time. With ice bans scheduled for 2030 few will be buying new just 5 years before this. Ice manufacturers are about to enter a valley of death in sales and they are well behind in switching over. Many large marques are hurtling towards bankruptcy in the believe they are too big to fail and governments will back down. But the market will prevail.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,815 ✭✭✭ LorenzoB




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,418 ✭✭✭ Wildly Boaring


    Then the savings start recouping that.




    If the Passat does on average 25miles per gallon. And a gallon of diesel is €7.50 (4.5 litres X €1.65)


    Bad start



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,796 ✭✭✭ Grumpypants


    Which bit?


    2010 Passat average mpg is 25 https://www.fuelly.com/car/volkswagen/passat/2010

    A gallon is 4.54 litres.

    Diesel costs €1.65



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,864 ✭✭✭✭ mickdw


    You might want to look again at that.

    Where it says GAS refers to petrol Passats.

    Diesel Passat will be certainly averaging over 45 mpg.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,796 ✭✭✭ Grumpypants


    Good catch. Thanks for actually taking the time to point that out.


    Still doesn't make a huge difference. I went very conservative on the electricity price at 26 cent. Anyone with an EV will be on the cheapest rate possible so the saving will still be easily 5k.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,418 ✭✭✭ Wildly Boaring


    There's very few, if any diesel cars do 25mpg.


    Had a passat myself about 10 years ago. High 40s mpg.


    I've nothing against EV and will own myself soon. But someone with a 2010 passat and no money owed be taking out a small fortune in fiance to buy an EV.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,418 ✭✭✭ Wildly Boaring


    800 km per week is appprox 40000 annually

    At 45mpg and a 7 euro gallon (why we using gallons). €3900 in fuel


    EV at 20kWh per 100 and 20 cent per kWh

    €1600

    Tax and insurance. Maybe save €200


    So save €2500 running costs.


    A new car depreciating at say 50% over 4 years (should really be 3)

    Approx 4 to 5k annually.

    So say 1500 to 2500 annual cost to change.

    But you've a new car.....



  • Registered Users Posts: 666 ✭✭✭ MightyMunster


    What EV is 50k more than a petrol/diesel equivalent?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,685 ✭✭✭ crisco10


    New to New, not many. But comparing a new EV to a close to fully depreciated diesel passat, its hard for the New EV to compare financially.


    I compared octavia to ioniq 5 (New to new), and they worked out similar total cost over 8 years or so. But that entire analysis had a baseline of spending 25 to 30k on at least an octavia. If running my old car into the ground was an option, it would have even the cheapest by far.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,864 ✭✭✭✭ mickdw


    Going with a 10 year useful vehicle life with zero value at end, a running cost saving of 2.5k per year means an ev could cost 25k more and still make sense.

    Question is - how much more expensive is an ev versus a diesel equivalent in each car class.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,553 ✭✭✭ tom1ie


    They’re not saving 5k a year when you add in monthly repayments on the car.

    They won’t be saving anything.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,553 ✭✭✭ tom1ie




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,796 ✭✭✭ Grumpypants


    You are saving 5k in the running costs.

    How the car is financed is a different story.


    But if you save 5k in running costs and use that to pay the finance then you have a new car for a net zero cost. And in 7 years when the Passat is 18 years old! You will still have a nice 7year old car worth 10k+ that is fully paid for that will continue to deliver that 3-4k in savings for years to come. (Reducing the 5k saving to account for maintenance)


    So the question is, does the OP want to keep shoveling thousands a year into an 11 year old passat that could kick the bucket at any point and they will have to upgrade anyway. Or move into a brand new car with all the latest comfort and safety features and a 7 year warranty at no additional cost to them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,166 ✭✭✭ Flinty997


    I'm not entirely sure why an 11yr old Passat could kick the bucket at any moment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,553 ✭✭✭ tom1ie


    Thousands into an 11 year old car? Why?

    If the car is debt free that means you have no monthly repayment on it.

    If you buy a new car (diesel or EV) that means you have a monthly repayment which has to be factored into the cost of running the car. How would it not be?

    With an EV to get decent range (if that’s what you need) you have to spend at least 30k which probably means a loan.

    With an ICE you can buy a second hand one for 15/16k which may mean only a small loan, ergo lower monthly repayments.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,796 ✭✭✭ Grumpypants


    Yip to buy the EV the OP mentioned it is €36,500.

    But based on the milage they mentioned the cost of electricity versus diesel will be between 2800-3300 cheaper.


    My point is instead of literally pumping that 3 grand worth of diesel into the car. Use it to pay for the new car.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,166 ✭✭✭ Flinty997


    I can't see the cost of the loan and depreciation on a new EV being less than the cost of running costs and fuel on the Passat.

    If cost is the only factor.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,796 ✭✭✭ Grumpypants


    That's easy enough to check.


    Today an 11 year old Passat is worth maybe 1-2k the MG ZS is 36k.


    Let's say you start with the Passat and spend 5k a year running it. And I start with the EV and I spend 5k a year running it and paying it off.


    In 7 years you have spent 35k and have a 18 year old Passat worth nothing. In 7 years I've spent 35k and I've a 7 year old car worth 10-15k.



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