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Is the Lotto too hard to win ?

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  • 19-11-2021 5:32pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 413 ✭✭


    A TD who sits on both the Oireachtas Finance and Public Expenditure committees has called for the draw to be more winnable

    Is there something fishy going on ? Why was the person from KPMG who used to watch what was going on dropped ?

    Its been months since the big one was won, should there be an inquiry ?



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,404 ✭✭✭StevenToast


    A tax for idiots

    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." - Fletcher



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,122 ✭✭✭Staplor


    They sold it off, it's now run for profit.

    They added more numbers to create more big jackpots, because of fewer winners, and higher jackpot = higher ticket sales.

    All of which = more profit.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,510 ✭✭✭Wheety


    Jackpot last won at the start of June, been at €19m since September. I can see people turning away from it if it's only won a coupe of times a year. At least the Euromillions gives away the money to the next tier with winners after a certain time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 720 ✭✭✭ethical


    The real winners are The Toronto Teachers Pension Fund,who own the Lotto now!


    A much fairer way would be to give ,say,10 prizes of 1 million when the jackpot goes over 10 million.........much better from an economic point of view,more would be spent and Paschal would be happy with the extra tax/revenue generated in the economy.

    Imagine if they actually copped on and said that there will be 19 new millionaires next week as they were going to give 19 x €1million prizes!



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Exactly, the smart money goes on scratch-cards.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,769 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    The Irish public are very generous to these foreigners. In 2019 people who won €19 million, decided that the money would be better off going to the Toronto teachers. And since that company took over in 2014 they have gained about €90 million from people not bothering to cash in their winnings.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/lotto-ireland-unclaimed-prizes-2019-5119648-Jun2020/



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,832 ✭✭✭silliussoddius




  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 48,660 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    he's not just called for it to be more winnable, he wants an investigation, goddammit!




  • Registered Users Posts: 20,769 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Why has nobody ever called for an investigation into the Daily Millions? It was last won on 05 November, but with two draws seven days a week, that is probably more draws with no winners than the main Lotto. I wouldn't be surprised if there are far worse runs than that.

    Of course the explanation is simple, not enough tickets bought to have winners more often. But a conspiracy theorist like that TD would have a field day with the stats.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,381 ✭✭✭✭rainbowtrout


    Durkan doesn't understand mathematical probability.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,544 ✭✭✭Montage of Feck


    I've yet to win, so yes. But then again I haven't bought a ticket since it was privatized. Haven't won a bob on the prize bonds as well.

    🙈🙉🙊



  • Registered Users Posts: 81,702 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    It's like something out of Father Ted, hopefully global media outlets get hold of the story for a great laugh, lol.



  • Registered Users Posts: 167 ✭✭The Master.


    Im not playing anymore. It annoys me that the jackpot is capped where i think that with all the extra people having a go it should be going through the roof.

    It seems to me like they added the extra numbers to create more rollovers and bigger jackpots without having to put any extra in. Pure cream for the owners.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭BENDYBINN


    peopl should stop playing it until it’s won.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,703 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The Probability

    The Irish lotto now has 47 numbers. There are 10.7 million potential combinations of 6 numbers from that.

    Let's assume there are 500,000 lines played around the country per draw. That means in any given draw there is a 4.67% chance of someone picking the winning numbers. Or, to put it another way, there is a 95.33% chance that nobody does.

    In order to calculate the chances of nobody winning 2 draws in a row we square that probability which gives 90.87%.

    In order to calculate the chances of nobody winning 46 draws in a row we put it to the power of 46 which gives 11.07%

    I made the assumption of 500,000 lines per draw because I don't know how many actually play each draw. However if we change that we change the overall probability so let's try a few other values to show how the overall chances of no winner in 46 draws will change:



    So we can see that how likely or not this is depends entirely on how many are playing the lotto. In the extreme case of only 100,000 lines being played per draw it's actually more probable that nobody would win in 46 draws. When we go up to a million lines it becomes a roughly 1 in a 100 chance that this would happen - improbable but not impossible.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    If nobody plays then how on Earth is anyone going to win...?



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,769 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    That suggestion is up there with the one to only change clocks once a year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    The media is kicking up **** because he's not one of the chosen ones, but he is right.

    The lotto has been un-won for months. The lower prizes are not being lifted to any decent extent and there are too many numbers. It's not about you/my chances of winning the lotto. It about the chances of anybody to win the lotto.

    There also needs to be an investigation into how the lotto money is being spent. It was supposed to be to fund sports, arts , disabilities and community projects. Now if helps funds the health system and goes to dodgy lobby NGOs like Alcohol Action Ireland.

    There was a good bit of chat on here during the Olympics abouts sports funding. The UK went from 1 gold medal in Atlanta, introduced the lottery for sports funding and now they are a serious force in world sports again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,160 ✭✭✭Markus Antonius


    Why he wasn't dropped when two of the same numbers were drawn from the drum is beyond me



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,939 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    I haven’t bothered with it since they started hiking up the amount of numbers ... 6 out of 47 numbers are required to win it now..You have a 1 in 10,737,573 chance of scooping the jackpot... thats according to the lottery themselves....pretty remote odds....

    also the prizes for anything but a jackpot are fûcking measly considering the odds against winning... from Wednesday just gone..

    Jackpot : 19,060,8000

    5+ bonus :384,261

    5 : 1601

    4+ bonus : 170

    4 : 51

    3+ bonus : 28


    5 numbers and you probably get a holiday out of it, just. 6 you can go on a holiday every month for the rest of your life and some...

    jackpot should be capped at 10 million... and the rest spread amongst the 5+, 5, 4+, and 4.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,244 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Problem is too many combinations. This means that it's too hard to win. 10 million plus combinations means on average even if a large percentage of adults played you would still have it won once every 4-5 draws on average

    What happens is a large amount of people decide it's not worth playing until the jackpot is 3-4 million, this means less plays. This feeds players to then push this number out to 5, then 6, then 10 then 15 million etc.

    When you lose the habit of playing you stop playing. I do not even look to see what the jackpot is worth any longer. I never see people filling out a slip any longer. It's too expensive as well with Is it six euro now for two line with lotto plus.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,348 ✭✭✭✭Rikand




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,299 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    I'm sure you could buy enough lines to pretty much guarantee a win and still be in profit, I know every combination is as likely as any other combination, but the chances of 6 consecutive numbers is basically zero, or 6 consecutive odd numbers, or consecutive multiples of three, or any repeating gaps, etc, etc, and then you eliminate combinations with 5 consecutive numbers, etc, ...

    the odds of winning are 1 in 10,737,573. jackpot is €19,060,800 which would buy 9,530,400 tickets, you only have to eliminate 1,207,173 improbable combinations, or like 1 in 9 of all possible combinations....


    maybe it's not so easy after all...



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 48,660 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    the chances of 6 consecutive numbers is basically zero, or 6 consecutive odd numbers, or consecutive multiples of three, or any repeating gaps, etc, etc, and then you eliminate combinations with 5 consecutive numbers, etc, ...

    the chances of six consecutive numbers being picked is precisely the same as any seemingly random set of specific numbers being picked. you just don't see it happen because there are about 40 sets of consecutive numbers you could pick, out of a total of approx 11 million possible combinations, so the chances of it happening are incredibly rare - but just as rare as your own numbers being picked.

    you see this with people who think they're being clever by picking 1 to 6, safe in the knowledge that that's just as likely as 5,12,23,31,34,41, for example. what they haven't factored in is that multiple other people have had the same idea so if their numbers do come up, they're going to be sharing the most widely shared lotto jackpot there has been. IIRC, an average of between 200 and 300 people pick 1 to 6 in the UK lotto draw.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,769 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    If there were fewer numbers, it would encourage millionaires to "buy" the Lotto.

    With 47 numbers, that can't happen, but 47 is not going to make the Lotto "unwinnable" by random luck either. Every draw stands on its own, with no influence from what happened in previous draws. The same odds apply in the next draw whether it was won every week for 10 weeks, or not won any week for 50 weeks. The only variable is the number of tickets bought.

    The UK is 6 numbers out of 59, and that seems to be around the sweet spot for the number of tickets in their draws. Plenty of rollovers, but plenty of jackpot winners every year. And that is what has been the case in Ireland for years as well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,397 ✭✭✭RocketRaccoon


    Someone will win it tonight, its a guarantee after this being made so public.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,769 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    You are right. Nobody knew about it until now, and millions of extra tickets will be bought chasing the big money.



  • Posts: 1,263 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Must be 25 years ago now, but I knew a fella lost all his money betting on the same lotto number coming up in the bookies. I think it was 4/1 at the time and you just picked a single number.

    Anyway, every draw, he increased his stake to compensate for the previous losses. I remember he had a huge chart the size of a kitchen table where he had calculated out what his winnings would be when the number eventually came up. Thirty something weeks went by and he ran out of funds. The number came up 3 weeks later. Gut wrenching, slow motion train wreck stuff as he was not a wealthy man by any means to begin with and he was desitute by the end of his great scheme :(



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 48,660 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    you could guarantee a win if you bought approx 11 million lines, at a cost of 22 million; in that sense it starts to make financial sense in a way to play the lotto if the jackpot is above €22m; but this has to be set against the chance of sharing the jackpot with another winner.


    i was at school with a chap whose parents were one of the first winners of a lotto jackpot (vague memory that it was somewhere around IRL£600k); it ended their marriage, which i think had been in trouble anyway. i guess tossing a win like that into a troubled marriage is like throwing a hand grenade into a crowded room.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,244 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The lotto with the odds of winning now battles against a few other things. Firstly because it is constantly rolled over a lot of people have no interest in winning 5 million plus as it is too life changing. As well when people win massive jackpots they are more liable to not allow the win to be publicised. Even a consortium of 3-6 people winning a jackpot of 6 million are more liable to keep private the win for as long as they can

    Slava Ukrainii



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