Stratosphere watch 2021-22

sryanbruen · 2021-11-02 14:55:58

It is that time again to look ahead, begin a new season of observing the stratosphere and see what it has in store with regards to impacting the weather lower down in the troposphere. For those that are new, the earth's atmosphere is divided into different layers. The troposphere is where weather occurs and the…

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#32 24-02-2022 10:09PM

sryanbruen

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https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118687763#Comment_118687763

One important point I forgot to mention is that the long range/seasonal skill is poor for March in their February update on average with a multi-model correlation of -0.5 according to stats from the World Climate Service. Model skill is unusually better for months further ahead. Therefore, the likelihood of the modelling going wrong on the very +AO and mild March would be increased. Doesn't exactly surprise me because of the MJO that I referenced above and various other things.

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