What is Poland up to?

MrMusician18

It looks to me that their government do not want to remain as an EU member state and may also be heading for the door by engineering a crisis.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/polish-court-rules-that-eu-laws-incompatible-with-its-constitution

Would Poland leaving be worse for the bloc than Brexit?

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058212126/what-is-poland-up-to

The court isn't wrong. Note that Ireland needed a Constitutional Amendment for exactly the same purpose (Third), and then several more for related reasons (eg the 28th). If the Polish Constitution does not specifically accept the primacy of EU law in whatever is being litigated, the Polish constitution will win. That's as it should be.

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117990080#Comment_117990080

That would be a no. Go read the treaty agreements and the protocols relating to Ireland. The Irish construction does not trump EU law. The Irish constitution restricts the ability of the government and parliament in respect of treaty ratification and amendments that is all.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117990142#Comment_117990142

That's because the Irish Constitution was modified in the Third Amendment to specifically read "No provision of this Constitution invalidates laws enacted, acts done or measures adopted by the State necessitated by the obligations of membership of the Communities or prevents laws enacted, acts done or measures adopted by the Communities, or institutions thereof, from having the force of law in the State."

Or, after the Twenty-Eighth Amendment "6º No provision of this Constitution invalidates laws enacted, acts done or measures adopted by the State, before, on or after the entry into force of the Treaty of Lisbon, that are necessitated by the obligations of membership of the European Union referred to in subsection 5 of this section or of the European Atomic Energy Community, or prevents laws enacted, acts done or measures adopted by—

i. the said European Union or the European Atomic Energy Community, or by institutions thereof,

ii. the European Communities or European Union existing immediately before the entry into force of the Treaty of Lisbon, or by institutions thereof, or

iii. bodies competent under the treaties referred to in this section,"

The supremacy of the Constitution unless otherwise stated in that Constitution is exactly why the amendments were required.

ancapailldorcha

Soapboxing post and response deleted. Kermit.de.frog, do not post here again.

I would assume the likelihood now is they’ll be given a defined period of time to amend their constitution. Otherwise, they will be heading for, at best, associate membership.

What they have now isn’t really compatible with EU membership.

cnocbui

I think the Polish government wants the EU to drop them, rather than try and convince an 80% for, electorate, to voluntarily exit.

Unfortunately, that’s what will ultimately happen and it could have serious consequences for the many poles who’ve embraced freedom of movement and become very integrated into plenty of countries. Their conservative compatriots may leave them in very precarious positions.

I could see both Poland and Hungary just drifting out of the EU. Neither are in the Eurozone and both are basically not interested in serious membership, so I suppose it’s going to be a case of them ending up maybe in a scenario like Turkey, just in the customs union.

It could also cause a movement of FDI away from both of them. Poland in particular has been booming based on companies moving in and because of access to the EU market. If that goes, that will dry up very fast.

A lot of companies will also already be getting cold feet as they could do without exposing themselves to another Brexit mess.

Unlike the U.K. they’re both large net beneficiaries of EU funds too. So I mean from an EU point of view their departure would be a budget saving. They’d want to be a little careful about pulling the rope too far, it might not be attached at the far end at all.

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992330#Comment_117992330

I see things very similar.

The thing is, if Poland or Hungary don't value the EU and the legal framework of the EU they should leave, and rather leave quickly than starting an endless debate about it.

reubenreuben

What would happen to the 100k polish living in Ireland if they pull out?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118000720#Comment_118000720

It would be a reset of things back to how they were before May 2004 - visas and work permits etc etc. I’m sure we would be likely to ensure that anyone long term resident here would have a pathway to permanent residency and citizenship, but that’s really all we we could do.

If Poland left with an agreement, perhaps there might be some reciprocal arrangement like the one that exists for Norway and Iceland, but who knows.

The situation for U.K. citizens, other than in Ireland where they’ve residency rights due to the CTA and legacy arrangements, is pretty awkward. Most countries are granting residency to long term residents who’ve met criteria, but the days of grabbing a summer job in a bar in Greece or Spain or upping sticks and setting up a B&B in rural France are gone unless you’ve an EU member state citizenship.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992330#Comment_117992330

They are really trying to score an own goal. A lot of Polish people have happily returned to their home country now that is is prospering. But then if the big companies are forced to pull out the citizens will end up locked inside a conservative country of emptying industry without the options to once again easily work around Europe. The inward-looking government would prefer the citizens not to have a say in this matter. A future poorer conservative RC country is what the powers want to return to. Refill the churches from the empty offices, could have their strategy summed up.

Larbre34

The governing Party in Poland have backed the *WAY* wrong horse.

The Czechs have just ejected Mr Babis. I fully expect the Magyars to eject Mr Orban and Fidesz in favour of the unity coalition next year and that leaves poor little PiS in Poland, with no friends in the EU and major trouble at home.

Those EU favorability figures in Poland are valid at 80+%, on top of the massive upset at PiS stuffing the Court to generate a constitutional crisis. If it comes to a choice for the Polish people between PiS and isolation on one hand and the EU and opportunity on the other, they'll chose the latter in spades.

The thing for the EU to do with them now, is nothing at all. No money, no engagement, nothing. Let them know that Poland signed up in 2004 with their eyes open, that they have now generated this crisis and that resolving it is solely an internal Polish issue.

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118000873#Comment_118000873

But, isn't this the irony? My (very poor) understanding of the current political setup in Poland, is that the people voted for the government, not for their conservative views on social issues, like abortion, etc, but for economic ones, jobs, etc.

pixelburp

I have a tonne of polish colleagues in my remote job, and they'd all be very pro EU - which doesn't seem an outlier going by polls either. Plus the apparently booking economy from being inside the bloc so .. what on earth is the government trying for? With something this transparently unpopular and disastrous to the economy: what's the in here? Are they deep with Russian connections on the sly?

At least brexit made hey from touching that resting British jingoistic zeal and sense of Exceptionalism. The public bought into the idea; here the public seem definitively against it, and (seemingly) can see the insanity of it all

threeball

Its time for the EU to really draw a line in the sand and say you're either in or your out. Too many eastern bloc countries cherrypicking the bits that favour them and ignoring the rest of their obligations as was seen when the Poles sent those Belarussian refugees packing. The EU also do themselves no favours in courting the likes of Turkey who are completely incompatible with the values of the EU and the expectations of its established members. The brits were at it for years and look at the mess that became of that.

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001817#Comment_118001817

Yes, I agree, but is there a case for each nation within the EU to allow to be in control of its own internal affairs, without being pressured by the EU, with what some might see as an ideology?

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118001831#Comment_118001831

There is a case for it. And if thats what the Country wants, they have the absolute right not to join, just look at Norway, they've eschewed it more than once.

However, when Poland joined in '04, the EU was already a mature phenomenon, with much of its current Treaty structures already in place. The Polish came in with their eyes wide open.

If they don't like it now, the option is to leave, not to try to have their cake and eat it too. Britain tried this tack and all they got was a few minor academic concessions and then they left and now they are suffering the consequences of hubris.

The Polish people now have a choice, back the populists in Government, or get behind Donald Tusk and fight for their place in the EU, openly and democratically.

enfant terrible

What are the issues exactly, is it because the current government is anti abortion and LBGT they are getting in trouble?

ZX7R

Irish man living in Poland.

My understanding of it as it stands this is domestic politics spilled over into the euro arena.

This was a solo endeavor by Mateuze Morawiecki

The judgment as it stands holds no power legally in in Poland as it would have to be inacted.

First a draft law would need to be drawn up and would need to pass majority in the lower house than the higher house.

The pis coalition has lost its majority in the lower house and just about has majority in the higher house 50 50 at best.

Then it would have to go before president Duda who already has stated that he was not in favour of court ruling in the first place.

A desperate act by the polish prime minister to steady a sinking ship his coalition.

Even this has backed fired as prominent members of pis and there largest coalition partner even more far right than pis are coming out in local press saying they won't support it.

Larbre34

Only partly. Its mainly about immigration and political marginalisation of opposition elements by stuffing Courts and other such things.

ZX7R

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118002197#Comment_118002197

You're way out with immigration, Poland are actively encouraging immigration from neighbouring eu members to fill the void of mass emigration from Poland over the last 20 years.

Don't get me wrong everything is not ideal about some of there ideology but I am amused when people from other countries dismiss another country's ideology as incorrect wrong because it doesn't fit there ideology.

Larbre34

I must have imagined the barbed wire and dogs and machine gun skirmishes on their border with Belarus.

And we aren't talking about any irrelevant personal dislike for their policies, we're talking about stuff thats contra to EU policy and agreements made.

ZX7R

Funny not much eu condemnation about the activities at the Belarus border to be fair

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118000720#Comment_118000720

Consider that the Irish civil service took a month shy of 2 years to process my son's foreign births citizenship application. The mind boggles.

zom

SNIP. Serious posts only please.

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118003519#Comment_118003519

That's disgraceful, especially if the child concerned has no other access to a travel document from another citizenship.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118079188#Comment_118079188

Yes, and I think that's putting it mildly. He has a current British passport, hence the desire for an Irish one. He had an Australian passport, but against my advice let that lapse many years ago.

Larbre34

It shouldn't need explaining that there are tens of thousands more than your son seeking a citizenship of convenience.

The fact you (or he) avail of this privilege, to make your life easier, and then complain about the manner in which its administered, shows a breathtaking arrogance and zero sense of self awareness.

I'd cancel it for the sheer ingratitude alone.

Citizen by birth to an Irish Citizen is not a privilege.

don't know what this has got to do with Poland.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083207#Comment_118083207

True. But it is a lottery luxury of life.