Night of the Big Wind

Orion402

"Judged by the reconstructed synoptic situation, the 1839 storm was not quite such an unusual event as folk memory would have us believe. Comparable winds almost certainly occurred in storms of more recent vintage. At its peak, it does seem to have been more severe than the storm of February 1988 — reports of damage done certainly indicate this but, on the other hand, the gales did not last as long. Two factors, however, would have added to the feeling of awe which the 1839 storm provoked, and ensured that its memory would endure: it occurred at night, and it came without warning. " Met Eireann

There is a housing estate in Drogheda called Ballsgrove which originates with a grove of trees owned by a man named Ball. Hundred of mature trees fell on that January night along with the estates of Oldbridge and Beaulieu and this is remarkable, not just because the storm came in from the West but it was January and there were no leaves on the trees. I wonder how many more areas in Ireland experienced the same damage and in case the authors of that Met Eireann piece didn't know- hurricanes came without warning for most of human history.

 

highdef

"hurricanes came without warning for most of human history"...... Was it a hurricane though?

Gaoth Laidir

It was a storm of hurricane-force winds, but not a hurricane. It certainly was a blowy night alright.

I know Ballsgrove well but never knew the history of it.

Oneiric 3

I have a book with accounts of this storm from all over the country, and no part was left untouched. This was not your average run of the mill winter storm as has been suggested.

An essential book for anyone who is interesting in getting to know this storm better:

The Night of the Big Wind by Carr, Peter: Very Good Paperback (1993) | WorldofBooks (abebooks.co.uk)

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117966813#Comment_117966813

By all accounts, it was a hurricane given the detailed accounts of those who went through it even if it didn't satisfy the conditions for a tropical hurricane. By this measure it is only playing with words, however, considering the experience was burned into the memory of the inhabitants of the island who probably knew all too well about Atlantic storms, storms of that nature are frightening rather than awe inducing as Met Eireann would have it.

To compare the event with a storm in February 1988 does not do justice to how that storm so affected Irish society going into the famine years. It may have something to do with how a massive storm in the 19th century would distract from present Atlantic storms now used to support 'climate change modelling'.

I believe people can do much better than the insipid Met Eireann account.

highdef

"By all accounts, it was a hurricane given the detailed accounts of those who went through it even if it didn't satisfy the conditions for a tropical hurricane. By this measure it is only playing with words"

It's not playing with words though and you contradicted yourself in one sentence by firstly stating that it was definitely a hurricane but ended the sentence stating that it may not have met the criteria to be classified as a hurricane.

"Hurricane" is a word used to describe a particular type of storm with very specific characteristics and which meets certain criteria. Whilst the storm in question 'may' have met some or all the criteria to allow it to have been deemed a hurricane in terms of wind speeds, unless it had the characteristics of a hurricane, it was not a hurricane. More likely an extremely strong Atlantic storm or possibly a post topical storm. I don't know the full details to this storm though.

There's no play on words though however you seem to have a play on definitions in order to try win your case.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117968537#Comment_117968537

Some say the origins of the word 'hurricane' is from the Carib Indian meaning 'Big Wind' so it is apt to describe the events of January 6th, 1839 as the Night of the Big Wind or the Night of the Hurricane rather than just another Atlantic storm and the Met Eireann synoptic charts reflecting that diminished treatment of the storm reported at that time as a hurricane is more a reflection on our unusual era rather than the amazing descriptions from theirs concerning the devastation caused

Having been caught in a 952 mb storm 300 miles West of Ireland and hurricane Bob which passed over the Eastern end of Long island, both are firmly in my memory, although some of the storms in the Southern ocean are certainly as severe as their Atlantic counterparts yet those two stand out.

There is no case to win or lose, there is just a conversation based on remarkable accounts from that era with the comparisons made with a storm in February 1988.

gipi

Very off-topic, but an interesting piece of info...the pensions act of1908 introduced an old age pension for people over 70.

As many Irish people had not been registered at birth, one method used to check their age was to ask what they remembered of the night of the big wind.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117968972#Comment_117968972

I don't think your comment is off-topic, after all, who remembers the storm of February 1988 as a comparison to other major life events?.

I am sure the people who experienced the storm/hurricane were well familiar with Atlantic storms to have one experience in particular causing so much death and carnage. I am also sure others can do better than the Met Eireann treatment with reports from that time gathered through the internet. I could say we owe it to the people who were just about to face into the famine times.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117968880#Comment_117968880

It was an extremely strong winter baroclinic storm, not a tropical cyclone. Distinctions like that are important in meteorology, as too many people still believe that Ireland has received hurricanes in the more recent past (Debbie (1961), Charley (1986), Ophelia, (2017), none of which met the criteria of a hurricane on reaching Ireland). Of course, to someone on the ground, wind is wind and it mattered not what the makeup of the storm was, not that anyone really knew the difference back then.

I must get that book. Oneiric's mentioned it several times in the past.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117967550#Comment_117967550

You are correct so the discussion is centred around the tendency to make the comparison of that 1839 storm/hurricane with the one in February 1988 and a kind of diminishing of society of that time that the frightening experiences they had would not register with people today whether the same level and range of winds came during the day or night-

"... Reports of damage done certainly indicate this, but, on the other hand, the gales did not last as long. Two factors, however, would have added to the feeling of awe which the 1839 storm provoked, and ensured that its memory would endure: it occurred at night, and it came without warning. " Met Eireann

What was a gale to Met Eireann was hurricane force winds to a demolished society contained in the reports.

M.T. Cranium

This was definitely a deeper Atlantic low than we have seen in recent years according to pressure records from land stations, as detailed in an earlier Met Eireann account of the storm linked here ...

https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2017/08/Jan1839_Storm.pdf

A wikipedia article gives a central pressure of 918 mbs which is consistent with these land obs (in the 920s to low 930s) although not backed up with a reference.

As most readers of these threads will know, another factor in the causation of strong winds is the rate of pressure fall. We could assume that this low was explosively developing off the northwest coast of Ireland around 6 to 9 p.m. on Jan 6, 1839. Having looked through a number of other accounts of the storm (one from Belfast mentioned catastrophic damage even in east Ulster by midnight), it is pretty clear that the damage was very widespread in northern and central counties of Ireland generally speaking. This was certainly a much stronger storm than any we have seen in recent years, the only faint comparison one might make would be to the Feb 1903 storm that did considerable damage in the south (its track was through Ireland rather than off the north coast). Also the storm could be compared in general terms to the "Defoe" storm of Nov (o.s.) 1703 which in today's calendar would be dated Dec 7-8 overnight. There were speculations that the Defoe storm could have been an extratropical remnant given that it arrived from the southwest. There is no way of knowing whether the 1839 storm had any history as a subtropical low perhaps forming between Bermuda and the Azores, but it is fairly well established that no tropical storms hit that late in the season on those two island groups, and in fact never did so in January in the pre-satellite era. Tropical storms or hurricanes are almost unknown in January in the North Atlantic, there have been perhaps four instances of them and one was an oddball southward moving hurricane in the tropical Atlantic.

Another storm to which this might be compared in synoptic terms would be the Columbus Day hurricane (remnants of mid-Pacific hurricane Freda, not a typhoon but a Hawaiian island family hurricane) -- although its central pressure was never below 950 mbs its rapid development near the coast led to a massive blowdown of large trees (Oct 12, 1962). The hilly terrain probably saved many human built structures from more severe damage as the hurricane force gusts were mainly on exposed coasts and on hilltops. Also the Great Lakes superstorm of Jan 25-26 1978 has some synoptic similarities as did the Nov 9 1913 "Great White Hurricane" as it was then called (although not a hurricane, an inland explosive development low) which caused 100 mph wind gusts to sweep across Lake Huron resulting in a large death toll among late season lakes shipping caught in this unpredicted storm. (the low responsible moved north from Georgia to near western Lake Ontario).

I should conclude by reminding readers that we had a thread about this storm, which is probably now buried several dozens of pages back in the archives, and there was no hint of any comparison of the storm to more recent ones here by Boards weather forum members.

Oneiric 3

Of note with this storm was that there was a widespread 'fall of snow' on the night before it arrived, and a sharp and notable temperature rise in the hours leading up to the main event, suggesting that this storm may have exploded rapidly relatively near to Ireland as the warm front and parent low encountered this preceding cold airmass.

While we have access to some barometric readings from that era, the amount of data is very limited, other than the accounts of damage and basic land based observations.

It would seem it was a pretty ferocious storm, but we probably will never know the exact technicalities of it as there just isn’t enough data.

Without modern instruments, capable of taking readings in the Atlantic, it’s all really in the realms of speculation.

What stands out about it is the human impact, which would tend to mean it was something out of the ordinary. They were well used to being hit with normal and regular Atlantic storms and certainly this one was different.

M.T. Cranium

The map shown in the linked article is probably about right but it should be remembered that the contours shown are almost 8 mb apart whereas the usual weather map we see has them 4 mb apart, so it looks twice as "weak" as it should look, with half the contours missing.

Also there was probably some sort of hangback trough with a stronger gradient, that would account for the widespread destructive winds reported across the northern two-thirds of the island. It's too bad the map of pressures doesn't include at least one from the northwest quadrant of Ireland, that might illustrate my conjecture, but I am picturing something like a 920 mb low near 58N 10W with a 940 mb pressure not far off the Mayo coast, but very tight isobars from there south. This hangback probably relented somewhat approaching Scotland which is perhaps why the storm was not quite as destructive there, despite dragging the same general pressure contours across Scotland during the first half of the 7th.

If weather stations had been operational that we see now, I would guess we might see reports like this at peak ... Mace Head 80kt g 100, Newport 75kt g 95, Belmullet 70 kt g 90. The south coast obviously received only a "standard" and unremarkable wind peak, indicating that the gradient probably relaxed to the south of a Limerick to Wicklow line.

Gaoth Laidir

I would imagine we're dealing with a classic stingjet event, with all the holes in the cheese lining up just perfectly.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117969466#Comment_117969466

There are enough regional reports publicly available on the internet, albeit personal experiences, to form a better perspective of the event.

Many readers here would know the rare times when they hear a low moaning sound from on high with a storm, however, reports of the event tell of a roaring coming from the West before the serious winds hit and that sounds unusual enough to affirm that the storm may have exploded near Ireland. The noise of the wind is an intangible component and doesn't show up in any chart yet it is contained in almost all reports of the 1839 event, something that more recent Atlantic storms don't register.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117969564#Comment_117969564

The Limerick Chronicle on January 9th 1839 has a report from that city that seems every bit as dramatic as those further North and East-

" Not a public edifice or institution in the City escaped the ravages of the storm, all suffering material damage in the fierce encounter. The best built houses of the New Town, were sadly dismantled in the upper stories…house tops and flues fell prostrate.

The crash of window glass was general and incessant. Whole stacks of chimneys would occasionally tumble down, after struggling with the blast like a drunken man to hold his equilibrium. At Arthur’s Quay, the houses rocked like a cradle, and when the affrighted families hurried from their beds to the vaults below for protection they were repulsed by the rush of water from the inflowing tide, raised to an unusual height by the force of its kindred element." Limerick Chronicle

Even the damage here would surpass a vicious present day Atlantic storm.

DOCARCH

Also have to bear in mind that building standards in 1839 would not be comparable to the 20th or 21st century.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117969808#Comment_117969808

Do you seriously believe that people at that time didn't build houses to survive the regular Atlantic storms?.

pinkypinky

I'm amazed that the Met Eireann report is so dismissive.

42 ships were wrecked. About 300 people were killed.

The Big Wind is considered a contributory factor to the Famine. The economic destruction caused by the Big Wind was still having effects 6 years later.

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117969821#Comment_117969821

People did not intentionally build houses not to survive storms, but there were no building standards/control at the time, and understanding of the effects of wind on buildings and building materials would be as it is today. I am more referring to buildings in the towns/cites than say cottages on the west coast where people well understood how to build to protect themselves from the prevailing winds.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117969870#Comment_117969870

You are kidding me, right ?.

The same dismissive perspective of the people who lived at that time and who knew all too well how to build a home to survive the Atlantic storms, standards or no standards.

The issue is how the Met Eirean report compares it to storms recently while the reports at the time show a society who knew something really different just happened during and after the 1839 event. There are enough local reports available nowadays not to assign the damage to poor building codes or that those people didn't experience genuine fear instead of 'awe' out of night time ignorance.

The issue before and surrounding the event is marginally less interesting and dramatic than the storm itself.

DOCARCH

If the same storm/conditions happened today, there would be far less damage to buildings than in 1839. That's a fact.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117969904#Comment_117969904

Stop digging.

The Met Eireann report compares it to recent storms whereas the 1839 event shows no comparable traits to any within recent memory, both in its natural destruction and the effects on the communities across Ireland. It was so unique it was burned into the memory of people even with the approaching famine.

It is remarkable that Met Eirean would be so dismissive of a monster storm and comparing it to recents one while hyping every Atlantic storm presently as an affirmation of 'climate change modelling'. That being said, the meteorological forensics of the 1839 event are less clear so it is unfinished business.

The other contributors were doing quite well with distilling observations to demonstrate a less dismissive picture and long may it continue.

DOCARCH

Digging???

Just making the point, that in absence of meteorological data, the severity of the 1839 storm cannot be gauged by means of damage to buildings (in the context of modern buildings).

Orion402

If the Met Eireann report is so enthusiastic in comparing the 1839 event with recent storms, what happens when a similar monster shows up?. Will it be directed towards supporting 'climate change modelling' or will the meteorological forensics be used to explain how conditions emerged to create effects which surpass normal Atlantic storms?.

I am unable to post relevant links covering regional experiences of the event as those who live through the storm relate the sounds surrounding the ferocity of the winds, notwithstanding the countryside and wildlife took so long to recover after the storm passed.

It does call into question those who live off speculative conclusions for future weather events when contributors here are just beginning to piece together the components which went into the Night of the Big Wind.

jackboy

If that storm felled hundreds of mature leafless deciduous trees imagine what a similar storm could do to today’s conifer plantations.

Also, the modern house may be able to stand up to such a storm but the country is full of farm buildings that may be at risk. Could still add up to significant economic damage.

Large bottle small glass

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117969821#Comment_117969821

I think if you look at the sitting of your regular Irish cottage, certainly what I have seen, shelter was a very big consideration with lots effectively down in a hole.

My late father was born in 1926 and his father in 1884; he had local stories/folklore passed down to him in relation to The Night of the Big Wind. He was like a child at Christmas when the book you linked came out.

I was only reading it last week.

Thanks for opening the thread

Nabber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117969889#Comment_117969889

That's a presumption that all folks knew how to build a home to withstand Atlantic storms, it's a logical assumption however. The fact remains that there was no building regulations. People who live in modern day shanty towns for example know that rain leaks through the roof, that wind destroys, but they often lack the funding to prevent damage and there is nothing preventing them from building how they like. Safe or unsafe. In Ireland much of the population lived in a poverty like state, we also must remember that the building were not all built in the 1830s.

Knowing an issue and having the means to prep for those conditions are different things.

Compare this to modern Ireland where building codes across the country are some of the strictest globally.

Loss of life and damage to property are social indicators of the impact, the severity of a storm should not rely on property damage or loss of life regardless of the span of time between two events.

Events should be classified by meteorological measurements and also separately as damage to society.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117969724#Comment_117969724

This is interesting. The sound of the 'big wind' have been noted in chronicles and were by all accounts, terrifying. Similarly, of all the people I have talked to down throughout the years (including grandparents and parents, who were around 10 years of age at the time) about 'Debby' back in 1961, they all noted that the roar (or more like a 'scream') of Debby could be heard shortly before it arrived. My dad (RIP) was with his father attending there own market stall here in town and he told me all was calm before it hit but the roar could be heard coming up from behind the town hall and that prompted them to run for cover as something big was going down and the wind minutes later hit very suddenly. Similar accounts from my maternal grandparents who lived a few miles north of here. The sound of the approaching wind could be heard before it hit and again, it hit very suddenly. Needless to say, their year's work on their farm was completely destroyed and countless ancient trees.. entire woodlands in many cases, in the region were completely annihilated. Also noted was an eerie yellow glow in the sky before the storm hit.

We gen Xer's and millennials don't know we are born.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117970569#Comment_117970569

I'm pretty sure, as simple and primitive as the people, as is implied by some the comments on here, were back in 1839, I'm sure they would have built homes that they knew would have withstood the brute force of Atlantic winters.. to the best of their ability at least. These people were far closer to nature than we could ever hope to be.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117970774#Comment_117970774

Thank you for sharing that and hopefully the true nature of the storm will be revisited without comparing it with recent storms.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117970569#Comment_117970569

The tendency to diminish the society who lived through the experience so the Met Eirean report could downplay its significance and bundle it with recent storms is hardly a good reflection on our era and how it deals with the forensics of Atlantic storms of this magnitude. The reports at the time extend on to wildlife and events nobody here ever witnessed and there is no reason to believe these people were exaggerating. Try telling people about the electrical storm in the summer of 1985 and the incessant noise and that was something people remember from that era, not as fear or awe but something so unusual as to remain in the memory.

"Loss in wildlife and livestock was huge, such a common species of bird like the crow became ‘nearly extinct’ for years after. In Monaghan, ‘the ground was reportedly ‘black’ with the mangled bodies of crows, showing how devastating this storm was. One Clare sheep farmer ‘losing 170 sheep’ and records showing ‘roosting hens being blown a distance of half a mile’ in County Leitrim, just showing the force of the Big Wind." Armagh Observatory

http://www.climate.armagh.ac.uk/publications/mpatterson_big_wind_2010dec03.pdf

I included that website as it has a different take on the ferocity of the winds.

Nabber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117970820#Comment_117970820

My intention was not to down play their abilities or knowledge, but to show that implementing such is difficult during times of hardship

Nabber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117970928#Comment_117970928

Again not my intention to diminish any society. It’s more so comparing historical events with a modern lens.

Building materials of today are far superior to those of the past, typically lighter, stronger, flexible, flame retardant, insulated ect. Builders of the past were unquestionably skilled with the materials they had.

200 years from now I’m sure building materials and standards will be far superior today, they will most likely fair better against hurricanes, storms flooding ect.

This can be said without without diminishing any contributions. Builders of the past paved (pardon the pun) the way for modern builders.

Like I said, record both human impact and actual recordings

Meteorite58

Without a doubt it was a fierce storm . I read reports that a lot of people lost their paltry life savings that would have been hidden in the thatch and subsequently blown away during the storm. There was reports of many houses catching fire as fires would have been let burn all night especially during January. One must remember the poverty , overcrowding and appalling state of many of the living quarters of the time. Thatched mud huts were common, 1841 census shows that 40% of the population living in one room cabins in South Cork. These cabins would have been built with what ever was found locally like rocks turf, rushes, branches or wood dug out of the bogs .

I remember my, then very elderly, mother telling me how she was shown the remains of famine era huts back in the 1930's near Rathmore , built into the side of the bogs.

Of course there was wealth and a middle class but there was huge poverty since the 1820's with the collapse of the textile industry and reports of 10's if not 100's of thousands of laborer's taking to the roads to try and find some form of work with families in desperation before the potato harvest. Complex times and little support from Britain.

Much of the damage was in Connacht and Ulster and a lot of the inland damage was caused by storm surge apparently. There are reports that even newly built buildings were damaged and I remember reading of steeples of churches crashing down through the roofs. Reading through reports it would seem much of the country was left unscathed especially on higher ground.

How terrified the people must have been especially that it occurred on the night of the Epiphany which led many to fear that the end of the world was happening, people being very religious at the time . What brutal times for many and to get worse in the following years......

Must try and get that book that Oneric mentioned.

Pics of what huts might have looked like.

Taken from Skibbereen Heritage Centre :

Some great recollections from Duchas

INFORMANT

Lawrence Walsh

Gender

male

Age

70

Address

Dunmore, Co. Kilkenny

From Duchas

John Halpin

Age

over 70

John Halpin tells me that his father often spoke to him about the night of the Big Wind. John himself is well over seventy now, and his father, he says, was ten or twelve years old the night of the Big Wind. That night the roof of Halpin's house was blown off, but despite all the people of the house remained in it until the wind abated. When the Halpins left the house in the moring not one of the outoffices was standing, the horses and cows were crowded into a sheltered corner of a field scared and nervous, walls were knocked, trees and bushes uprooted and the whole place was strewn with debris.

The neighbouring village of Quin was strewn with the thatch of the houses, and roofs were blown off many of them. A peculiar thing happened two houses opposite each other. The roofs of both were blown off, but the roof of one in its flight lodged on the bare walls of the other. An old hag with fierce long grinning teeth was noticed to pass from one house to another with the wind.

M.T. Cranium

I think the Met E account probably under-rates the 1839 storm relative to more recent ones for this reason -- they compared the overall wind gradient from the northern tip of the country to the southern tip, but in my conjecture, there was likely quite a deep secondary just off the Mayo coast which cannot be detected from the data available, therefore the gradient as the storm hit the west coast was almost the same over that two thirds of the total distance, as Met E estimated for the whole country (and probably accurately but by then the strongest gradients had begun to fill in). So in fact if the storm compared to a modern storm with a pressure differential over 2/3 of the distance, then it would have been 3/2 as strong or 50% stronger. That might be a bit high, let's say 30 to 40 per cent more likely. But a significant difference nonetheless.

There would be no hope of proving this secondary deep low idea, unless any actual pressure readings could be found, but as the wind speeds were clearly quite a bit stronger than the 1988 storm, I think it's a safe bet that Belmullet's pressure may have dropped well below what the study might lead one to believe (which would be 950 mbs perhaps) -- it may have been closer to 935 mbs there. This deepening must have been quite explosive to get the incredibly fast forward motion of the wind speed maximum which looks like it went from around 9 p.m. in Westport to a little before midnight in Belfast (about 11 p.m. in Dublin). We normally see 4-6 hour progressions of wind max with the tamer storms of modern times.

I'm sure a satellite image of that 1839 storm would be a very dramatic reverse-C with bands hitting the west coast around a stark centre in Donegal Bay.

Had a look at the CET temperatures in this sequence; evidently the low occluded very rapidly over Britain because the mean reported on the 7th was only 4.2, equal to the previous day. There was no sustained warm advection, and the temperatures then fell off to subzero briefly before a milder system pushed temperatures up to around 8 C on the 11th.

So in summary I would say the maps in the paper by Met E are probably fairly accurate but six hours earlier than the first map, a more complex structure with a secondary near the Mayo coast would perhaps have been the actual cause of the extreme winds.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117971656#Comment_117971656

I quite understand that, however, the conclusion of Met Eireann downplays the significance of the ferocity of the storm in an era when they now are pushing the ferocity of present storms that barely register among the population in damage to wildlife and forestry. The Met Eireann report attaches unnecessary commentaries on the experiences of people who back then realised this was something no living person had encountered before and perhaps since.

What happens when the next 'big wind' occurs for it surely will when conditions are right?. It is why a more practical forensic treatment of the 1839 storm is necessary before they send it in the direction of 'climate change modelling'.

Gaoth Laidir

One thing that stands out is that the people years ago would put us all to shame with the high standard of their handwriting. I can't remember the last time I wrote something like that by hand. A declining skill.

Nabber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117972318#Comment_117972318

If it were to happen again it would be 'unprecedented' a once every 500year storm. There is a reason historical weather events are down played.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117972150#Comment_117972150

I recall that many of the big events in the 90s more often than not were rapidly followed by potent secondaries that were poorly forecast, and which had the effect of prolonging the storms with barely a lull in-between.

Re-reading some of the accounts of the 1839 storm, lightning and aurora were seen during the height of the storm, which not only would have added to the ominous nature of the event, but also suggests that the strongest winds occurred in a post cold/newly formed occluded frontal air mass.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117972640#Comment_117972640

This is unfortunate as ultimately formatting the conditions for a historical storm makes for a far more interesting discussion than homogenising the 1839 monstrous event with recent and relatively placid events. I was on a 54 metre trawler 300 miles West of Ireland heading into a low pressure system of 952 mbs on our way from Iceland to the Canary Islands. There were moments of genuine fear for someone who thought I saw everything as the waves striking the bow were almost instantly striking the wheelhouse windows and most of the crew were Icelandic familiar with these things hardly seen that ugly green the sea takes on during those events just as the roaring onshore brings its own assault on the senses.

I suspect people are missing a trick here as I doubt Akrasia in the other thread will venture into this one and offer his thoughts on the conditions surrounding the development of the storm.

M.T. Cranium

Back in those days no doubt the 500 mb heights were a bit lower than we see nowadays in winter storm situations, that low might have been stacked under something like a 484 dm low at 500 mb and since subtropical heights were probably within 1 dm of today, the gradient wind would have been quite fierce. The winter of 1838-39 was not particularly cold for those decades, but the previous winter had some record cold weather in January (1838).

If this happened nowadays, I would imagine there would be serious damage to infrastructure on a scale not seen in modern times. As to how modern houses might fare, possibly a bit better, but there would be numerous roof removals even if not quite the scale of total collapse, and so many trees down causing havoc. It's clear that a storm surge came up the Shannon estuary from the Limerick reports, and the extent of the storm surge around Galway must have been far beyond what we've seen recently.

There was a very deep low also in Dec 1886 that is not that well publicized but probably ranks in the top three or four storms to hit Ireland in recent centuries. A pressure of 927 mbs was taken in east Ulster, and the main damage zone was north Leinster and across into Lancashire. That storm is more accurately depicted on historical weather maps, the 1839 storm in the NASA archives (wetterzentrale) is pathetically underdone for no obvious reason since there were reliable pressures in the 920s in northern Scotland.

M.T. Cranium

Probably the only reason this kind of storm would be unlikely in modern times is that component of the upper level flow attaining such deep polar vortex characteristics; in eastern Canada where those parameters have not changed very much, they still get peak wind gusts of the same intensity as back in the 19th century. This is somewhat at odds with orthodox climate change theory which implies an ongoing trend towards more intense storms, actually I believe the reverse is true. A lot of the most powerful windstorms I can find in most climate records are well back in the past. And that makes sense because winter season windstorms have an almost linear relationship to the depth of the 500 mb lows that are guiding them. If those heights relax with the warmer oceans and northward shift in the jet stream it stands to reason that the storms will be less intense (at the latitude of Ireland anyway). But you can't rule out some freak "perfect storm" scenario where the heights do fall to sub-480 dm over top of a bombing cyclone, then you'd have this all over again.

On the subject of the auroral display, the sunspot cycle that peaked in 1837-38 was a notably strong one and Caswell in his Providence weather journal has frequent reports of bright aurorae, one on the evening of Jan 10, 1839. The weather situation for Providence RI was indicative of storm development around the 4th-5th to the southeast, after some clear high pressure over the region 3rd-4th. There was no indication of a strong low but about three inches of snow fell in a northeast wind on the 5th, and it was cloudy for several days. Temperatures were generally about 5 deg below normal values.

beachhead

My truppence worth -- today's snowflakes need something to whinge about,including Met Eirinn.No reason to allow events of the 1830's to diminish their paranoia.We can only wonder how people survived weather events in the 1400-1800's or prior.Written accounts are scarce.Snowflakes avn't a clue

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117972794#Comment_117972794

I remember the so-called Halloween storm ('perfect storm') well as I was living on the Eastern end of Long Island at the time and it happened a few months after hurricane Bob while doing more damage to the communities than the hurricane did. Like the storm that wiped out the Fastnet yacht race or the Sydney-Hobart a few decades ago, certain conditions came together to create anomalous weather events and may I include the freeze 10 years ago which encompassed this island only for the sake of expanding the issue beyond individual storms.

In this respect, the 1839 event was anomalous among all the other Atlantic storms that moved across or close to the island and that will always interest people as opposed to predicting future temperatures in order to project future trends in weather thereby robbing the interesting sequence of meteorological conditions that set up monster storms. It is not so much that the 'big wind' will happen again under the same conditions but rather the ferocity of winds will result from another set of parameters just as interesting as the ones that cause the Halloween storm and the massive 1839 event. The nuances may be lost to serve 'climate change modelling' and the imperatives dumped on society who have no control over the conditions for stormy, cold weather or heatwaves.

Thanks for your take on the reasons why the 1839 storm was weaponised using a secondary low pressure system creating something that devastated an island community that had little and were facing into the famine years. I am sure that forensic modelling of this nature is now far better than when the original Met Eireann report came out and certainly should be revisited. I have read the meteorological reports for the yacht races and they include secondary lows or merging storms like the 'perfect storm'-

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/15/5/1520-0434_2000_015_0543_tabdso_2_0_co_2.xml

Oneiric 3

Some accounts of the weather (UK specific) in the year leading up to 1839 and 1839 itself. An obviously cold period in weather history, which once again demonstrates that Ireland and the UK are subject more extreme events when the climate profile is in a cooler state:

1838 (February) THE 'BUDE BREAKWATER' GALE

1. On the evening of the 24th February, 1838, a southerly gale developed (" more violent than for years "), this veering west-southwesterly through the night and coincided with a high tide in the early hours of the 25th. The inside slope of the Bude Breakwater (built to protect the harbour/canal entrance between 1820 and 1822) gave way (?scouring / over-topping?), with three-quarters of the structure giving way. [ Apparently the mortar had been weakened by a severe frost in the winter; however, the structure was also deemed to have had too steep a slope, and the replacement breakwater was of much better construction, and has survived many a gale to this day/2003.] damage also occurred to sea structures all along the south coast of England, including the Plymouth breakwater. 12 1838 (late Summer / Autumn) Following a severe winter/early spring of 1838 over Scotland [ see above ], the crops were already delayed, and were then damaged in the ground by frost in August, with the cold, frosty weather continuing through September & October. A large proportion of the crop was lost, with much hardship for rural tenants. x 1838 Cold year: fog on 11 days in September (London/South). Snow showers on the 13th October (?London/South?). 

8 January 1839 "The Night of the 'Big Wind'": this is the most notorious of all storms to affect Ireland (also affected other parts of the British Isles - see later). An unusually deep depression (one of the deepest ever recorded so close to the British Isles) travelling in a north-east direction to the north of Ireland was responsible for gusts widely 75-90 knots, and in excess of 100 knots in a few places; Lamb says there is 'evidence of whirlwind / tornado activity'. At least 90 people were killed across Ireland & surrounding waters, though the death toll was surprisingly low, allowing for the lack of warning. There was considerable damage to buildings, shipping and crops right across the island. Around 20-25% of houses in Dublin experienced some form of damage, though some was minor (broken windows). Several tens of thousands of trees were uprooted. The aforementioned storm also affected other parts of the British Isles, particularly western & northern parts of Britain. The newly-built Menai Bridge was severely damaged. In Liverpool & in the adjacent waters of the Irish Sea, much damage ensued - building damage ashore, and loss of vessels & lives afloat. Deaths in the Liverpool area, both on land & at sea is stated to be around 115, with many-a-breach of local sea walls, and the death total across the entire British Isles may have been in excess of 400. (Remember that coastal shipping was of great importance in these days before the railway network reached all corners of the Kingdom - also Ireland was then an integral part of the United Kingdom). 6, 23 1839 May Showers of snow, sleet and hail on the 14th & 15th May. 

1839 (Summer, Autumn & early Winter) A wet summer (148% of LTA 1916-1950) across England & Wales. Specifically, July 1839 was in the 'top-10' of wettest such-named months in the EWP series.

Over the longer period from June to November 1839, using the EWP series, the RAINFALL %age was around 150% averaged over the England & Wales domain, and probably close to twice-average across southern England. 1, EWP 1839 (Annual) A wet year and a wet summer (in London).

A cold year for Scotland. Specifically for agricultural areas of NE Scotland (though not exclusively so - just that this is the area I have data), the following are noted:

> March: a severe snowstorm, with much drifting - loss of life.

> May: about the middle of that month, there was a heavy fall of snow with much drifting.

> September: Severe flooding after heavy rainfall. Damage / destruction of bridges in the area.

Over England & Wales, the period June 1839 to January 1840 was notably wet (including the wet summer - see above); the cumulative anomaly for this period was 140%.

In December, FOG 1st to 7th December (London/South).

Sourced from here: Weather in History 1800 to 1849 AD (weatherweb.net)

M.T. Cranium

You could add to that a very cold January in 1838 which saw the coldest daily mean temperature of any day in the series (daily means begin in 1772), a reading below -10 C. The monthly average was -1.6 C. The spring of 1837 was one of the coldest on record, especially April. But the period had high variability, May 1833 still outdoes any other May for warmth by over 1.0 deg (almost as isolated as Dec 2015) and June 1846 was also warmest on record. The winter of 1833-34 is one of the mildest, but March 1845 was second coldest and has the coldest daily mean for any March. This high variability climate seemed to give way to a more consistent rather cool regime later in the 19th century, without as many extremes in either direction. This is probably because in North America high variability peaked after 1870 and while the jet stream was probably further south than nowadays, all the cold air pouring out of North America at frequent intervals probably fired up a generally zonal flow across the Atlantic, albeit not quite the sort of mild conveyor belt situation of the early 21st century or the 1970s.

It's interesting that these three great storms -- 1703, 1839, and 1903 all happened just after or in the dying stages of long solar minima, the Maunder, the Dalton and whatever we call the late 19th century into the first decade of the 20th century which was considerably quieter than the mid-19th century. So ... we've been in a bit of a solar downturn recently. Maybe Darwin is all we're going to get, which was probably more than enough for most people affected by it.

beachhead

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117977268#Comment_117977268

I was under the impression that the current ice age began in the late 1400's and will progress for up to 15,000 years leaving an area north of Galway/Dublin line under ice.The northern hemisphere will see the ice cap covering a lot of Northern Europe.I don't plan on being around that long.

M.T. Cranium

Hard to say what the next glacial maximum will be like, the last two were apparently quite similar to each other, but this past one had probably two or three relative maxima separated by slightly less widespread ice cover, although far more than nowadays.

We used to speak of the glacial maxima as "ice ages" but the modern convention is to say glacial maximum because until the earth is fully deglaciated we are technically in an ice age. Opinions vary as to whether we are near the height of the inter-glacial now, or were during a slightly warmer climate that occurred before the Neolithic around six to eight thousand years ago. Our human modification of the climate may be distorting the actual signal, making it appear as though we are still emerging from the worst of the previous glacial instead of slowly descending into the next one.

The good news is that unlike the rather brief inter-glacial between the last two major glacial periods, this inter-glacial has a very long extinction period caused by slower variations in the three primary "milankovitch" factors, which include our axial tilt, the date of perihelion relative to northern winter, and eccentricity of earth's orbit. What's perfect for a northern hemisphere glacial max is larger tilt, perihelion in northern summer, and a more eccentric orbit. All of these factors tend to reach a sort of pause over ten to thirty thousand years, which supposedly means that (in the absence of human modification) the next glacial era would set in very gradually over that period of time.

It could be that our modification will have a longer delaying effect although by the year 3,000 (not very far into that longer interval) you would think we might have entirely weaned ourselves from fossil fuels and the greenhouse gas surplus would have settled out. Then there's the question of how a more advanced human civilization might be able (or willing) to control the weather. Perhaps there will not be another glacial maximum for those reasons.

The "Little Ice Age" (which really only ended in the early 20th century) shows that our climate can shift into a state that, while not cold enough to encourage continental glaciation, is severe enough to reverse smaller aspects of the ongoing glacial minimum that has been around ever since the more modern form of human history began. The fact is though, the modern homo sapiens and the Neanderthals were both around during the last portions of the recent glacial maximum, and possibly even as far back as the inter-glacial between the last two big glacial periods. There was speculation that when the Lake Toba volcano erupted and turned some portion of the recent glacial max into a super-chilled century without much sunlight, the human population dwindled to almost extinction rates and only a remnant survived that stress.