If the DUP collapse Stormont...

Sunny Disposition

isn't it just a hop, skip and a jump to a United Ireland? It seems to me like a hugely risky thing for them to do, massively risky. Not only will they only have a tiny influence in the House of Commons, but there is potential for far greater alientation across all sides, destabilising NI potentially.

I think it's incredible to think they would do it, it has worked for SF to an extent in the past, but SF don't need NI to be functional. It's better for them if it's not, but if the State is failing how can one argue for the constitutional status quo to remain?

Could the British Government quickly use the opportunity to increase the Republic's role and off load its own obligations?

banie01

The DUP have painted themselves into a corner. They pursued a hard brexit in the referendum in the hope they would never have to implement it, that remain would win.

When Leave won, they learnt into it and the aftermath of 2017 GE, they had an immense of influence that the DUP parlayed into £1billion and then they pulled the rug from under May and collapsed the best deal available. Then the 2019 election left them adrift and Boris threw them under the bus. They are now without influence anywhere but Stormont and GBNews viewers.

The party is IMO on the verge of electoral collapse, its brand of unionism is again crystallizing around "NO!".

The Protocol is a reality that the UK and Unionism in particular need to come to terms with. NI has enormous opportunity for trade to the UK and EU, they have immediate access to the SM and a huge advantage over Great Britain.

The calmer heads in NI politics recognise this and are well placed to take advantage of. N.I needs calmer heads to prevail and the DUP efforts to collapse Stormont are a last effort to grasp relevance and to be seen as hard-line Unionists after their pocketing of Teresa's shilling.

If the DUP are dissatisfied with the NIP? They must be reminded at every opportunity, that it was their rug pull that brought it about.

Westminster has wanted rid for decades. Brexit was the perfect opportunity to start a meaningful divide and they took it.

The DUP could really do with realising that outside the six counties, they're an utter irrelevance, and even within the six counties, unionists are growing weary of them.

They had their moment in the sun when they propped up Theresa May and ultimately ended up with **** all.

DUP are caught in a time warp and other NI parties are taking advantage of it.

Capt'n Midnight

The NDNA allows for a 24 week gap to new elections if Stormont is collapsed, leaving ministers in a caretaker role. So pulling the plug would only change the date of the next election by a few weeks.

On the other hand if there's a return to direct rule a border poll would be a great way to distract the media from whatever the Tories are up to / failing at. And even though the Tories are a party of backstabbers they won't forget that DUP undermined Theresa May.

Plus dropping the subvention would mean an extra £11Bn a year for the NHS.

There'll be a fudge but there'll be a price to pay later.

Del2005

A united Ireland poll now would be a bigger farce than the Brexit vote. Unless people know what they are voting for we'll end up with a worse cluster f than Brexit. It's years if not decades for a united Ireland vote, we don't even know what type of Ireland we'll have afterwards or what our flag and national anthem will be.

The DUP are in their death throws. The Republic is best off staying out of it or else they will blame us. Let the DUP die and then we'll deal with whoever wins.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058208228/if-the-dup-collapse-stormont

I would argue that it should sound like a warning for anyone in the South wanting to vote for a UI.

Why on god's earth would we want to burden ourselves with the Orange and Green sectarianism that exists up there?

Junkyard Tom

The problem 'up there' is 'Orange' not green, and that 'up there' problem is an all-Ireland issue particularly when a border poll is triggered.

The anti-Republicans and partitionists are very much like Brexiters, they think if they get their way in a border poll that everything stays exactly as it is. Like Bexiters and Unionists (of the DUP sort) the partitonist's ability to 'game out' scenarios is utterly subordinated to their hatreds and prejudices.

This country has unification in its DNA and anyone that tries to prevent it will need to come up with a vision for a completely different country.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875329#Comment_117875329

I would view it as the opposite really. The UI fanatics, come what may, are exactly like the UKIP Brexiter's over in the UK. It's all about getting the win and to hell with the real consequences with Brexit or in the UI fanatics, a UI itself.

Politics in the north is not normal, it is an outlier in the western world where people vote for others based on their religious and sectarian background. So, why would we want to bring that on us? Honest question!!

The status quo is a fudge but its the best fudge we have that does not $hit the bed. Maybe in a few generations, politics becomes more normalised, more mainstream. Then we can talk turkey.

Junkyard Tom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875407#Comment_117875407

I don't consider partitonists as 'us', they're de facto allies of belligerent Unionism and its paramilitary proxies in the northeast.

Ireland was partitioned by threat of internal terrorism by Unionists and external war by the British. The problems in the north are a direct result of that very partition, this seems to interminably evade partitionist cognition.

Go read the country's constitution and then try to figure out exactly who this 'us' is you're referring to. If you want permanent partition then come up with a vision for it with a new constitution, anthem, flag, and everything else that would go with it.

FullyComp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875432#Comment_117875432

All the people in Northern Ireland are entitled to Irish citizenship. The Irish state cannot ignore the wishes of a million of it's citizens?

For all the people saying they should just accept the NI Protocol, if the protocol negotiations had gone the other way and we had a hard border now. Would we just accept it? Of course not, so why would they?

Junkyard Tom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875447#Comment_117875447

Forgive me if I can't bring myself to care too much about the feelings of Unionists who opposed the GFA and viewed Brexit as an opportunity to unravel the stitching together of our country/nation.

sydthebeat

Donaldson inference of a threat of a return of unionist violence will not go down well with moderate unionists, so I think he may find himself cut adrift if another election is called up north.

They are slipping in all polls, behind UUP and TUV in the most recent one.

https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1431632836428189698?s=19

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875432#Comment_117875432

As I have mentioned before, partition was inevitable. People just need to accept that there was going to be no magical UI back in 1916 or 1921.

You say partition was the result of the threat of terrorism by Unionists, yet Ireland won its war of independence by the same means and wanted to subjugate northern unionists, to a country dominated by Nationalists and the Catholic church. Remember the term, Home Rule is Rome Rule? They weren't wrong.

I find a lot of this willy-waving about history very much hypocritical.

"The Unionists treated nationalists badly, so we wanted a UI so we can be in the majority and treat the Unionists badly instead"

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875711#Comment_117875711

Yeah I suppose the threat of civil war and terrorism by Unionists during the Home Rule crises before WW1 was nothing.

A bigoted privileged class would not accept democratic rule, so a pretend State was created to please them.

ghoulfinger

In a modernising NI the DUP are becoming increasingly irrelevant. The long game is what counts.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875829#Comment_117875829

It's the same debate.

You talk of democracy, but you wanted the whole of Ireland to be one country, including Northern Unionists who didn't.

By that letter, Ireland was a functioning democracy after the act of Union 1801.

Itssoeasy

This move by the DUP is clearly a move made out of panic because of the poor opinion polls which have shown their message of just saying “NO” isn't a viable political position. And didn’t Jeffrey Donaldson make this move under the assumption that all unionist ministers would fall in line ? If he did it shows an arrogance which the UUP have shown isn’t ubiquitous across unionism. Now, obviously there is some political motive behind the UUPs move but I think it will age much better.

Dyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875571#Comment_117875571

You mean like the Irish goverments inference of a threat that there would be trouble at the border? Sauce for the goose

You'd think it would be impossible NOT to be able to claim the moral high ground against Unionism but our clowns somehow managed it.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117876096#Comment_117876096

these two things are not the same

FF/FG do not have an uncomfortable recent historical connection to an armed nationalist militia , unlike the DUP and their cosy connections to the UVF and UDA

Dyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117876119#Comment_117876119

They very much are, FFFG spent decades saying that violence was completely unacceptable regardless of circumstances and then suddenly softened their cough once it suited their book. Either violence is unacceptable regardless of the situation or it ain't. you can't play both sides of the fence like the DUP do and then pretend to be outraged.

I see our boy in Brussels is now kite flying the softening of the EUs position on the border. Funny that Berlin has a bigger say in our future Border than Dublin but its a price we're happy to pay as good Europeans. 😂

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0911/1245952-brexit-northern-ireland-protocol/

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875984#Comment_117875984

A functioning democracy since 1801????

Sure Catholics couldnt even hold seats until 1829 and some racist bigoted resemblance of Penal laws imposed on us were still around by the 1840s. Hardly a functioning democracy when only a minority of the wealthy Protestant Acendency are the ones benefiting from it.

These same people would not accept equality, so they got their own mini racist State up North and now that people are refusing to accept that, they are acting like spoiled babies having tantrums. Next they'll want their own county or something. It's a disfunctional failed state born out of hatred and refusal to accept the wishes of the people of Ireland.

Even Edward Carson came to believe he had been hoodwinked by the Tories. And if the Unionist class had joined as one nation the Catholic Church would probably have never become the powerbase it did as a sort of glue to keep the nation together post civil war.

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875829#Comment_117875829

Mark, like all blueshirts can't accept the nationalist side, FG won't even acknowledge loyalist killings, these are the people who literally licked Donaldson from head to toe at their Ard Fheis

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117876170#Comment_117876170

Do you honestly think that tomorrow FF!/FG could instigate any violence in Northern Ireland through communications to a sectarian group? The DUP certainly can.

So again, these two things are not the same.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875829#Comment_117875829

The pretend state was also a deliberate ploy by the Brits to leave their former colony with in-fighting. And it worked!

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117876096#Comment_117876096

The Irish government did not make a threat as is frequently claimed by some.

They simply explained that if there was a hard economic border then this would would require customs posts wvich need to be protected by police and probably the military. Having a physical police and military infrastructure would attract violence from those opposed to it.

These are realities based on history and not threats. The allegation if it being threatening was only there to suit a pro-border agenda.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875234#Comment_117875234

A rock of sense. The end of the DUP does not mean the end of unionism. In fact, unionism may come back into its own. Beattie is being very clever in how he is positioning the UUP as a modern voice within unionism.

FullyComp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875469#Comment_117875469

Sorry in a UI they're as much citizens as anyone else. We can't swap one sectarian government for another

Junkyard Tom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117877389#Comment_117877389

Absolutely, I've not suggested otherwise. In fact I'd view a UI as a great opportunity to further secularise Ireland, introduce universal healthcare and so on.

Partition was effectively conservative counter-revolutionaries seizing power in the north and south. The south has largely moved on but the rump end of the Protestant Ascendancy remains stubbornly regressive in the north. Unification would be the death-knell of belligerent unionism as its reason for existence will be gone.

batman75

It looks to me like the DUP are dying a long slow death since Peter Robinson left. Under he and Paisley they were a force to be reckoned with. Now they are increasingly out of touch. DUP supported Brexit so they lost any right to cry about it's consequences. Ironically I see Brexit as the first step on the road to a United Ireland. Boris doesn't give a toss about the six counties. The Queen is entering her final year/s. Once she dies the monarchy in Britain won't have the same popular support again.

The hardline Unionists are now loyal to a country that doesn't want them and a monarchy system which is going to fade in terms of spotlight and popularity. They know that the central pillars of their beliefs are collapsing around them and understandably they are scared to death. The threat of street violence is one last desperate throw of the dice to affect some kind of influence regarding the fallout from Brexit.

An interesting long term question is, can a united Ireland have a place for those who pledge allegiance to Britain and the Queen. Can a united Ireland be a nation in which they can feel welcome?

10000maniacs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875407#Comment_117875407

Sinn Fein's best advice is not to force a united Ireland, it will happen sooner rather than later anyway.

In the words of Leon Hayward

Don't push it, don't force it

Let it happen naturally

It will surely happen

As it was meant to be.

markodaly

Do people not forget that for a very very brief period of time, Ireland was united? Stormont then voted the day after the Free State was established to opt-out, and 'rejoin' the UK.

I find the whole argument about partition hypocritical.

If Irish people wanted to run their own affairs from their own parliament in Dublin, fine. But then Unionists (who don't identify as Irish) in the North should have also been afforded the right to decide their own future. Essentially there are those who argue about partition but what they are really saying is that to hell or high water, regardless of what they wanted, Northern Unionists should have joined the Free State regardless of their opinions on the matter.

Sounds like the same thing to me, as what Britain did in 1801 with the act of Union.

Shield

If the DUP collapses Stormont, they will get to see just how many supporters they have lost to either the UUP or the TUV.

Everyone sees Donaldson using signalling language, like being ‘fearful of further unrest’. Don’t be surprised if you see more petrol bombs being thrown by (sometimes, but not always) 14yo youths while (some of) their parents are just innocently sitting on a wall giving the orders.

Sunny Disposition

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117877131#Comment_117877131

Beattie seems to be one of the first unionist leaders with a bit of cop on. The TUV kind of version can't succeed in the medium term anyway, the Beattie type of approach is the only one that can possibly be successful with demographics as they are.

briany

Fair bit of a leap to say it would be a precursor to a United Ireland, imo. Over the last decade, Stormont being a functional legislature has nearly been an exception rather than the rule, so it's not even an unknown quantity. If enough people in NI become convinced that their lot would be better in a UI (and that means in a very real economic sense in terms of work, education and social support), then we may see a United Ireland. Until then, a collapsed Stormont is just another indicator of the unending tribalism which underpins NI society. The leading parties in NI can barely work together at the best of times. What's new?

deirdremf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875984#Comment_117875984

Indeed, a functioning democracy for the very few (wealthy) people who could vote. And don't forget the Rotten Buroughs!

Junkyard Tom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117886491#Comment_117886491

What tribe are you part of Brainy?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117886736#Comment_117886736

Have you anything to say on the actual topic, or do you just label and rubbish anyone who disagrees with you?

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117887835#Comment_117887835

What some Irish Nationalists are saying is that because we live on an Island, the majority rules! Which of course is ridiclious.

There is only a non-nationalist majority east of the Bann. And defo not in South Armagh.

NI was setup as the minimum viable statelet with a Unionist majority. But it hasn't been viable for a long time. The subvention is one third of the rest of the economy. The civil service and public sectors are relatively large. IIRC most working women are employed by the govt rather than in the private sector.

If the DUP pull the rug the Tories might do a bit of imposing laws over their heads like they did during the last time Stornmont was on standby. The Tories are getting hammered over NI. ie. the National Insurance increase of $12Bn which is conveniently close to the subvention.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117887886#Comment_117887886

Why should any Irish Nationalist be allowed to make any Unionist a second-class citizen in their own country?

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117887876#Comment_117887876

Essentially what you saying is that Ulster Unionists should all just 'go home' and let Ireland to the Irish. You don't even see the slightest issue with this?

Unionists didn't intervene in the War of Independence, they didn't really care too much if Cork or Dublin had their own state. But they did care if Belfast was to be subsumed into the new Free State, hence their resistance for the sake of Ulster.

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117887902#Comment_117887902

You do know Prior to 1921 Ireland was one of the nations of the UK.... not the ROI and NI. The majority of the nation wanted independence but because some in the north of the nation didn't they created a gerrymandered part of Ireland to stay within the UK. This has obviously caused a lot of contention by splitting the nation.

Under your crusty logic should counties in the North that have a majority in favour of uniting with the South leave? With about a Town? Or a street in a Town? At what boundary is it fair to split people by majority? Should the UK have been split with brexit? Scotland stays in the EU and England leaves?

They were originally going to have 9 counties in the North but then they changed it to 6. It is a made up place.

BTW in the early 20th century nearly everyone in the North referred to themselves as Irish including prodesents. This we are not Irish because we are unionists was born in the apartheid over the 20th century..... another proof that it is a failure.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117887898#Comment_117887898

They shouldn't, everyone in Ireland should have equal citizenship.

twinytwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117887898#Comment_117887898

They didn't, the unionists made sure they stayed on top by whatever means required. Now they throw their toys out of the pram at the thought of parity.

Not to worry though, demographics will have a UI in the next few decades.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888020#Comment_117888020

Once they are all ruled from Dublin?

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117887978#Comment_117887978

Well, Ireland was never unified politically either if you want to go back further. The only time Ireland was United was under British rule.

As I said, just because we are one Island geographically does not automatically mean that there should only be one government.

The island of Britain is made up of England, Scotland, and Wales, yet Irish Nationalists and Scottish Nationalists will make the case that Scotland should be independent, yet Northern Ireland should be subsumed into the Republic, because the majority in the whole Island wills it, regardless of what NI actually want.

At the end of the day, if you accepted the GFA then you will cede that it is up to the people of NI themselves whether or not to join the Republic of Ireland as one country. In other words, the people of NI including the Unionists can democratically vote for it. That is the key now, and that was the key in 1921 and 1922. No amount of gnashing of teeth over historical grudges will change this fact.

McMurphy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888167#Comment_117888167

What would the problem be with that? No-one would be expecting them to renounce their Britishness, a new United Ireland will also have unionist political representation.

I don't see the issue myself, the days of a nation treating certain factions of its own people are hopefully gone now, unionists have nothing to fear in a united Ireland.

The true belligerent unionists will never be happy in anything other than a partitioned state where they can lord it over their inferiors anyway, and those types should be offered assisted passage to Britain, if they aren't happy with any new setup, if they refuse to adapt and change.

Podge_irl

Of course Unionists have something to "fear" in a United Ireland. They are against the entire concept and view it no differently from how Nationalists view the partition itself in the first place.

I struggle to see how any argument you can make for the lack of impact of unification on Unionists could not be turned around to make the exact same argument for maintaining partition.

Ultimately we all agreed that NI would self-determine what would happen - that includes the Unionists in NI.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888167#Comment_117888167

They will not ruled from anywhere, they will be citizens in a democratic nation.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888503#Comment_117888503

They are citizens in a democratic nation now, so there is nothing to gain from a united Ireland.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888887#Comment_117888887

They are in the remants of a sectarian colonial project to subject a neighbouring nation. Not the same thing at all, as you well know.

I ask you the same question that i asked Mark Daly, which of course he did not answer. If a load of Afghans come to your street and demand that it be ruled from Kabul and that women wear burkas do you support this?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888954#Comment_117888954

What are you talking about Afghans for? They have nothing to do with the conversation.

Like it or not, Ulster Unionists have established a distinct and separate identity on this island from the Irish identity. They are not the remnants of a sectarian colonial project to subject a neighbouring nation.

The failure to recognise that we can no longer have "Ireland for the Irish" is the biggest flaw in Irish nationalism. We should never again talk about uniting territory but about uniting people.