September 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for September, 2021. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.1 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during September.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during September (see 2 above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during September.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during September.

6. BONUS -- We will have a relatively short-range bonus question -- predict the total rainfall at Mullingar in the first six days of the month (rainfall ending with the observations on Monday 6th). If no rain falls by the time you enter, there will only be the late penalty for late forecasts, but if rain has fallen before your forecast is submitted (as part of a late forecast) then there may be a cap on your potential score. (just in case anyone interprets the bonus as six different forecasts, we just want the total by (and including) the sixth of the month. The normal value will be set as the GFS numerical prediction for the interval appearing on the first as part of the 00z run.

Deadline will be 0300h Wednesday 1st of September. Late penalties are one point per four hours late, to 1500h 2nd, after which it increases to one point per hour.

200motels

200motels----------- 13.3----- 21.2--- 2.2------- 82------- 98-------- 2.2mm

pauldry

pauldry----------- 13.1----- 24.2--- 0.2------- 120------- 98-------- 28.7mm

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ____ 13.3 _ 22.1_ 1.9_ 95 _ 95_ 4mm

sunflower3

sunflower3____ 13.5 _ 22.8_ 1.5_ 92 _ 85_ 3mm

dasa29

Dasa29____ 13.4 _ 22.0_ 1.0_ 95 _ 105_ 10mm

DOCARCH

DOCARCH_____12.9__23.6__0.8__96__110__4.2mm

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ______ 13.8 __ 22.2 __2.3 __123 __ 96 __ 8mm

John mac

john mac____ 13.4 __24.8__ 1.8__ 103 __ 90__ 8mm

waterways

waterways____ 13.4 _ 23.7_ -2.0_ 85 _ 101_ 11.1mm

mrskinner

Skinner___13.5___24.5___0.5___90___110___15mm

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall____12.9___21.8__1.8___93___88___5.2mm

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium _______________ 13.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 105 _ 095 _ 12.1 mm

NormaL ____________________13.1 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 0.5 mm*

The 12z GFS on Aug 31 was showing 17.5 mm but the 00z run shows just trace amounts. Anyway, that is what NormaL is going with, for better or for worse.

Most of the rainfall on the 12z run was Saturday into Sunday.

Joe Public

Joe Public____ 14.1 _ 23 _ 1.4 _ 70 _ 120_ 3.5mm

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___13.1 ___ 21.02 __ 1.01 ___ 105 ___ 95 ____ 5mm.

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Laidir----------- 13.1----- 19.5--- -1.8------- 110------- 80-------- 4.5 mm

appledrop

Appledrop__13.4__22.5__1.8__90__85__9mm

dacogawa

Dacogawa _________ 13.3 _ 22.7 _ -1.0 _ 110 _ 091 _ 2.4 mm

Gonzo

Gonzo _______________ 12.9 _ 22.3 _ -0.8 _ 117 _ 092 _ 4.1 mm

Artane2002

Artane2002 ____________________13.3 _23.2 _ -1.3 _ 95 _ 105 _ 3.8mm

Jpmarn

Jpmarn  ____________________13.8 _ 25.5 _ 0.5_ 120 _ 105 _ 18.5 mm

adam240610

Adam240610__13.1__23.0__0.1__135__88__19.2mm

Sorry for late entry!

Bsal

Bsal ____ 13.4 _ 25.0_ -0.5_ 105 _ 90_ 7mm

Danno

Danno ____ 13.8 _ 24.2_ 0.7_ 80 _ 115_ 13mm

M.T. Cranium

Table of Forecasts September 2021

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Prc Mul 1-6

Joe Public _________ 14.1 _ 23.0 _ 1.4 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 3.5

Jpmarn ___________ 13.8 _ 25.5 _ 0.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___18.5

Danno ______ (-4) __13.8 _ 24.2 _ 0.7 _ 080 _ 115 ___13.0

Tae laidir __________13.8 _ 22.2 _ 2.3 _ 123 _ 096 ___ 8.0

MrSkinner _________ 13.5 _ 24.5 _ 0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___15.0

M.T. Cranium ______ 13.5 _ 24.0 _-1.5 _ 105 _ 095 ___12.1

sunflower3 ________ 13.5 _ 22.8 _ 1.5 _ 092 _ 085 ___ 3.0

Bsal _______ (-3) __ 13.4 _ 25.0 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 7.0

john mac __________13.4 _ 24.8 _ 1.8 _ 103 _ 090 ___ 8.0

waterways ________ 13.4 _ 23.7 _-2.0 _ 085 _ 101 ___11.1

Appledrop _________ 13.4 _ 22.5 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 085 ___ 9.0

Dasa29 ___________ 13.4 _ 22.0 _ 1,0 _ 095 _ 105 ___10.0

___ Con Sensus _____13.4 _ 23.0 _ 0.7 _ 096 _ 095 ___ 7.0

Artane2002 ________ 13.3 _ 23.2 _-1.3 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 3.8

Dacogawa _________ 13.3 _ 22.7 _-1.0 _ 110 _ 091 ___ 2.4

200motels _________13.3 _ 21.2 _ 2.2 _ 082 _ 098 ___ 2.2

sryanbruen ________ 13.3 _ 22.1 _ 1.9 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 4.0

pauldry ___________ 13.1 _ 24.2 _ 0.2 _ 120 _ 098 ___28.7

Adam240610 __(-1) _13.1 _ 23.0 _ 0.1 _ 135 _ 088 ___19.2

Kindred Spirit ______ 13.1 _ 21.0 _ 1.0 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 5.0

Gaoth Laidir _______ 13.1 _ 19.5 _-1.8 _ 110 _ 080 ___ 4.5

___ NormaL _______ 13.1 _ 25.0 _-1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 0.5

DOCARCH _________ 12.9 _ 23.6 _ 0.8 _ 096 _ 110 ___ 4.2

Gonzo ____________ 12.9 _ 22.3 _-0.8 _ 117 _ 092 ___ 4.1

Mr stonewall _______ 12.9 _ 21.8 _ 1.8 _ 093 _ 088 ___ 5.2

________________________________________

23 forecasts means that Con Sensus (median) is 12th ranked forecast in each category.

Tae laidir

Most models forecasting little or no rain for Mullingar.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840731#Comment_117840731

Looks like it all went further north but Newport had over 10 mm earlier. It all went up towards Ulster though.

GFS 12z on Aug 31 not good, GFS 00z Sep 1 much closer. Will likely beat all of us.

Tae laidir

Mullingar 0.2mm yesterday.

appledrop

We should get our Max temperature today.

M.T. Cranium

Our lowest forecast for the bonus was 2.2 mm (200motels) and I assume the final total will be well under that. (NormaL was posted as 0.5).

That being the case, scores would be as follows ... somewhat irregular but I tried to give similar forecasts the same score as well as going in pairs as the basic concept (NormaL and Con Sensus don't count as forecasters):

10 _ NormaL (0.5), 200motels (2.2), dacogawa (2.4)

9 _ sunflower3 (3.0), Joe Public (3.5)

8 _ Artane2002 (3.8), sryanbruen (4.0), Gonzo (4.1), DOCARCH (4.2)

7 _ Gaoth Laidir (4.5)

6 _ Kindred Spirit (5.0), Mr Stonewall (5.2)

5 _ Con Sensus (7.0), Bsal (7.0), Tae laidir (8.0), johnmac (8.0)

4 _ Appledrop (9.0)

3 _ dasa29 (10.0), waterways (11.1)

2 _ MTC (12.1), danno (13.0)

1 _ MrSkinner (15.0), JPmarn (18.5), Adam240610 (19.2)

0 _ Pauldry (28.7)

______________________________

there had to be one group of three to get pairs to work (11 scoring levels), but once I listed them that way, some large gaps appeared in the same scoring level on several occasions so I reshuffled the deck to get closer groupings. Thus Adam240610 escaped the zero level, and various other problems were resolved.

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117852559#Comment_117852559

Probably, and probably a higher one tomorrow. 🙂

Bsal

I saw a 25c at Kerry airport today

METAR EIKY 061600Z 14003KT 070V230 CAVOK 25/17 Q1021=

Is that part of our grid for the contest?

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117855630#Comment_117855630

No for whatever reason Kerry airport and Donegal airport do not report on the met.ie website under hourly data.

We could include them but it would have to happen between contest years. I know where to get their daily extremes.

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 23.6 max yesterday

M.T. Cranium

Confirming that 0.2 mm is the final rainfall total for Mullingar 1st-6th, which verifies the scoring table posted earlier.

Looks like at least 27 C today (Athenry).

Tae laidir

Shannon and Valentia 27.9 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 16.1 which was 2.0 above normal.

MAX 27.9 MIN not tracked yet.

PRC 13% of normal with several stations yet to record any.

SUN 74.7% of normal (448/600).

BONUS 0.2 mm already scored.

________________________________

MAX can now also be scored as it will already need a massive infusion of help from "Minumum Progression" (the forecasters' friend).

This will go from 19 to 0 with four extras by ties at 15, 10, and 6 (three closest scoring levels).

Our highest three forecasts were from JPmarn (25.5), Bsal (25.0, with NormaL) and Johnmac 24.8. Those three get 19, 18 and 17 points.

16 points for Mr Skinner at 14.5 and 15 for Danno and Pauldry at 24.2.

14 points for M.T. Cranium at 24.0, 13 for waterways at 23.7 and 12 for DOCARCH at 23.6 ...

11 points for Artane2002 at 23.2 then 10 for Adam240610 and Joe Public (also Con Sensus) each at 23.0.

9 points for sunflower3 (22.8), 8 for dacogawa (22.7), 7 for appledrop (22.5) and 6 for Gonzo (22.3), also tae laidir (22.2).

5 points for sryanbruen (22.1), 4 for dasa29 (22.0), 3 for MrStonewall (21.8), 2 for 200motels (21.2),

1 point for Kindred Spirit (21.0) and 0 for Gaoth Laidir (19.5).

Combined with bonus it tends to even out as most of the high scores for MAX were below the median for the bonus. NormaL has a total of 29/30 however.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT still on 16.1, the second week also 16.1, 2.5 above normal.

MAX 27.9 (and scored above). MIN not tracked yet.

PRC up to 59% with the second week just over the normal value at 105%.

SUN 55.6% of normal, the second week even duller than the first at 36.5% (219/600).

BONUS question 0.2 mm already scored.

The current guidance looks fairly similar to these trends, with the promise of a few colder nights so we might have a MIN to track eventually. Would say a good landing spot from the current 12z GFS is around 14.8 to 15.2 C, 70% PRC and 70% SUN with almost any MIN still in the hunt.

Our highest forecast (14.1) and lowest PRC (70%) belong to Joe Public -- the lowest SUN forecast was 80% from Gaoth Laidir. These are essentially score-protected on the lower side (and higher for IMT) since if they don't verify then minimum progression may be needed, although this pattern could conceivably move the numbers a little past all three (would not think it likely that all three would get passed at this stage, late September sunshine is usually rather low anyway and while there's a couple of decent rainfalls, the monthly average is quite high for later September and we have this very dry start with a blocking pattern indicated to develop late in the month -- something that is not in our forecast, the main element of this later stage of the month could be widespread dense fog).

Tae laidir

Mount Dillon dropped to 3.6 yesterday.

May or may be not significant.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT on 15.4 with third week average 14.0 (0.9 above normal).

MAX 27.9 and MIN 3.6

PRC up to 61% with the third week at 68%.

SUN 63% of normal, the third week slightly brighter at 77% (461/600).

BONUS question 0.2 mm already scored.

M.T. Cranium

IMT still up at 15.4 after 27 days, can't see it falling below 15.0 and our highest forecast was 14.1 ... so you can expect the appearance of minimum progression there. Faint hopes of a lower MIN than 3.6 next two nights.

I checked the data while getting ready to launch the October contest. That should be up very soon.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 15.3 with the fourth week average 14.7 (2.3 above normal).

MAX 27.9 (scoring already shown earlier)

MIN 3.6

PRC now 67% with the fourth week average 84% of normal.

SUN now up to 75% with the fourth week average 111.3% (668/600).

BONUS was 0.2 mm and already scored.

Not sure where September 2021 stands in Irish long-term data but in the CET records only 2006 (16.8) and 1729 (16.6) ended up warmer than the CET appears likely to end up (16.3), with two other years (1865, 1949) about tied with 2021, usually there is a slight reduction in the eventual number so I'm expecting this month to end up fifth warmest out of 353 years in that record. In that series 2016 tied 1795 at 16.0 for current t-5.

M.T. Cranium

Provisional scoring for September 2021

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___BONUS

Joe Public _________ 23*_ 10 _ 13 _ 15 _ 02 ___ 9 _____ 72

sunflower3 _________18*_ 09 _ 13 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 9 _____ 66

john mac __________ 15*_ 17 _ 16 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 5 _____ 65

Danno ______ (-4) __ 21*_ 15 _ 10 _ 12 _ 03 ___ 2 _63-4=59

Appledrop __________15*_ 07 _ 16 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 4 _____ 59

Tae laidir __________ 21*_ 06 _ 19 _ 00 _ 07 ___ 5 _____ 58

200motels _________ 10*_ 02 _ 18 _ 11 _ 06 __ 10 _____ 57

MrSkinner _________ 18*_ 16 _ 09 _ 08 _ 04 ___ 1 _____ 56

Jpmarn ___________ 21*_ 19 _ 09 _ 00 _ 05 ___ 1 _____ 55

sryanbruen ________ 10*_ 05 _ 17 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 8 _____ 54

___ Con Sensus _____15*_ 10 _ 10 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 5 _____ 53

Bsal _______ (-3) ___ 15*_ 18 _ 05 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 5 _54-3=51

waterways _________ 15*_ 13 _ 02 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 3 _____ 49

___ NormaL ________ 06*_ 18 _ 04 _ 05 _ 06 __ 10 _____ 49

M.T. Cranium _______ 18*_ 14 _ 03 _ 03 _ 07 ___ 2 _____ 47

Dasa29 ____________15*_ 04 _ 12 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 3 _____ 46

Artane2002 ________ 10*_ 11 _ 03 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 8 _____ 44

DOCARCH _________ 03*_ 12 _ 10 _ 06 _ 04 ___ 8 _____ 43

Mr stonewall _______ 03*_ 03 _ 16 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 6 _____ 43

Dacogawa _________ 10*_ 08 _ 04 _ 02 _ 08 __ 10 _____ 42

pauldry ____________06*_ 15 _ 08 _ 02 _ 06 ___ 0 _____ 37

Kindred Spirit ______ 06*_ 01 _ 12 _ 03 _ 07 ___ 6 _____ 35

Adam240610 __(-1) _ 06*_ 10 _ 07 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 1 _32-1=31

Gonzo ____________ 03*_ 06 _ 04 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 8 _____ 29

Gaoth Laidir _______ 06*_ 00 _ 02 _ 02 _ 10 ___ 7 _____ 27

____________________________________________________

Scoring notes:

• _ IMT lower scores will be very close to raw scores (bottom three would be raw scores for 15.1 IMT).

MAX scores already set by minimum progression. Scores are not marked with *

MIN currently scored as minimum progression from 3.6, could change slightly if lower than 3.0 outcome.

PRC scored from 70% which is our lowest forecast. No minimum progression was required.

SUN scored from 75% which is one scoring level lower than our lowest forecast, one point added to all scores.

BONUS was scored early in the contest.

These scores will be reviewed on 1-2 Oct when final data and MS are available.

=======================================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Prc Mul 1-6

Joe Public _________ 14.1 _ 23.0 _ 1.4 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 3.5

Jpmarn ___________ 13.8 _ 25.5 _ 0.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___18.5

Danno ______ (-4) __13.8 _ 24.2 _ 0.7 _ 080 _ 115 ___13.0

Tae laidir __________13.8 _ 22.2 _ 2.3 _ 123 _ 096 ___ 8.0

MrSkinner _________ 13.5 _ 24.5 _ 0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___15.0

M.T. Cranium ______ 13.5 _ 24.0 _-1.5 _ 105 _ 095 ___12.1

sunflower3 ________ 13.5 _ 22.8 _ 1.5 _ 092 _ 085 ___ 3.0

Bsal _______ (-3) __ 13.4 _ 25.0 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 7.0

john mac __________13.4 _ 24.8 _ 1.8 _ 103 _ 090 ___ 8.0

waterways ________ 13.4 _ 23.7 _-2.0 _ 085 _ 101 ___11.1

Appledrop _________ 13.4 _ 22.5 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 085 ___ 9.0

Dasa29 ___________ 13.4 _ 22.0 _ 1,0 _ 095 _ 105 ___10.0

___ Con Sensus _____13.4 _ 23.0 _ 0.7 _ 096 _ 095 ___ 7.0

Artane2002 ________ 13.3 _ 23.2 _-1.3 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 3.8

Dacogawa _________ 13.3 _ 22.7 _-1.0 _ 110 _ 091 ___ 2.4

200motels _________13.3 _ 21.2 _ 2.2 _ 082 _ 098 ___ 2.2

sryanbruen ________ 13.3 _ 22.1 _ 1.9 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 4.0

pauldry ___________ 13.1 _ 24.2 _ 0.2 _ 120 _ 098 ___28.7

Adam240610 __(-1) _13.1 _ 23.0 _ 0.1 _ 135 _ 088 ___19.2

Kindred Spirit ______ 13.1 _ 21.0 _ 1.0 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 5.0

Gaoth Laidir _______ 13.1 _ 19.5 _-1.8 _ 110 _ 080 ___ 4.5

___ NormaL _______ 13.1 _ 25.0 _-1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 0.5

DOCARCH _________ 12.9 _ 23.6 _ 0.8 _ 096 _ 110 ___ 4.2

Gonzo ____________ 12.9 _ 22.3 _-0.8 _ 117 _ 092 ___ 4.1

Mr stonewall _______ 12.9 _ 21.8 _ 1.8 _ 093 _ 088 ___ 5.2

________________________________________

Tae laidir

Athenry 3.1 yesterday

M.T. Cranium

IMT has finished on 15.0, and PRC appears to be in the mid-70 range but I will take the exact percentages in the MS and work that out. SUN probably dropped back a bit from the fourth week average. Most of the provisional scoring is probably okay but I will tinker with it tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium

Oops, my mind seems to be slowly decaying from over-use, there won't be a Monthly Summary until Monday (or Tuesday if Monday is a bank holiday there). We're just going to have to wait until then to finish up this scoring, my apologies.

M.T. Cranium

Okay, here are the final values:

IMT 15.0

MAX 27.9

MIN 3.1

PRC 83%

SUN avg 89.5 hrs normal avg 122.5 hrs _ 73%

Bonus 0.2 mm

____________________________________________

The PRC came in a bit higher than expected, I think because heavy rains hit the grid on the 29th and or 30th so those scores will need adjusting. All other elements came in as expected, so the rest of the provisional scoring table is okay. The effect of the higher PRC will be to give most a higher score by about four points but one or two low predictions will drop by some part of four points. I am also going to adjust IMT up by one point for all forecasts. Here's the slightly revised table then:

Final scoring for September 2021

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___BONUS

sunflower3 _________19*_ 09 _ 13 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 9 _____ 71

john mac __________16*_ 17 _ 16 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 5 _____ 70

Joe Public _________ 24*_ 10 _ 13 _ 11 _ 02 ___ 9 _____ 69

Appledrop _________ 16*_ 07 _ 16 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 4 _____ 65

Danno ______ (-4) __22*_ 15 _ 10 _ 14 _ 03 ___ 2 _66-4=62

200motels _________11*_ 02 _ 18 _ 15 _ 06 __ 10 _____ 62

MrSkinner _________ 19*_ 16 _ 09 _ 13 _ 04 ___ 1 _____ 62

Tae laidir __________22*_ 06 _ 19 _ 02 _ 07 ___ 5 _____ 61

Jpmarn ___________ 22*_ 19 _ 09 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 1 _____ 59

sryanbruen ________ 11*_ 05 _ 17 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 8 _____ 59

___ Con Sensus _____16*_ 10 _ 10 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 5 _____ 59

Bsal _______ (-3) ___ 16*_ 18 _ 05 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 5 _60-3=57

waterways _________ 16*_ 13 _ 02 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 3 _____ 54

___ NormaL ________ 06*_ 18 _ 04 _ 09 _ 06 __ 10 _____ 53

M.T. Cranium _______ 19*_ 14 _ 03 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 2 _____ 53

Dasa29 ____________16*_ 04 _ 12 _ 11 _ 05 ___ 3 _____ 51

Artane2002 ________ 11*_ 11 _ 03 _ 11 _ 05 ___ 8 _____ 49

DOCARCH _________ 04*_ 12 _ 10 _ 11 _ 04 ___ 8 _____ 49

Mr stonewall _______ 04*_ 03 _ 16 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 6 _____ 49

Dacogawa _________ 11*_ 08 _ 04 _ 06 _ 08 __ 10 _____ 47

Kindred Spirit ______ 07*_ 01 _ 12 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 6 _____ 41

pauldry ____________07*_ 15 _ 08 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 0 _____ 39

Gonzo ____________ 04*_ 06 _ 04 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 8 _____ 34

Adam240610 __(-1) _ 07*_ 10 _ 07 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 1 _33-1=32

Gaoth Laidir _______ 07*_ 00 _ 02 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 7 _____ 32

____________________________________________________

Scoring notes:

IMT scores from minimum progression, but lowest are equal to raw scores (04 for 12.9 vs 15.0).

MAX scores set by minimum progression. Scores are not marked with *

MIN scored as minimum progression as all forecasts below 3.1.

PRC rescored from 83% which is above our lowest forecast of 70%. No minimum progression was required.

SUN scored from 80% although the actual value was 73% so one point added to all scores.

BONUS was scored early in the contest.

__ Congrats to sunflower3, john mac and Joe Public for leading this contest.

Next up will be the annual scoring update.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update January to September 2021

The ranks before the forecaster's name refer to total (all nine months where applicable) scores and the second entry in brackets is the previous month's rank for that. ... The rank after "best 7/9" is for that category and the second entry in brackets there is also last month's rank for best 7/8. This category is only ranked for those who have now played at least seven of nine. The "best of" scoring has now switched to the final format dropping two low scores, so it may not be quite as continuous from last month as you might expect, as anyone who had missed two contests then will be moving up somewhat in the rankings (possibly). If you have played all nine contests, your best 7/9 will be equal to your previous best 7/8 adding the surplus of points scored in September over the second lowest month. If September is your second lowest month, your score will be identical to last month. If it's your lowest month, it will also be identical. Months dropped from the total score to derive best 7/9 are shown in italic type. There may be another month equal to one of those but to avoid confusion I only highlighted the first of them. The italic type is sometimes a bit hard to distinguish.

rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ____Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep__TOTAL_best 7/9_rank (prev)

_01_(01) __sunflower3 ________76 _37 _72 _66 _67 _66 _74 _78 _71 __ 607 ____ 504 ___ 01 (01)

_02_(t04) __ john mac ________62 _68 _68 _34 _52 _73 _57 _73 _70 __ 557 ____ 471 ___ 02 (02)

(02)_(02)_____Con Sensus ____ 65 _59 _81 _67 _64 _49 _59 _76 _59 __ 579 ____ 471 ___(t02) ((02))

_07_(08) __ tae laidir _________67 _64 _74 _39 _35 _49 _64 _82 _61 __ 535 ____ 461 ___ 03 (06)

_03_(02) __ MrSkinner ________58 _63 _75 _70 _47 _53 _58 _69 _62 __ 555 ____ 455 ___t04 (04)

t 05_(07)__sryanbruen ________ 75 _76 _47 _69 _60 _57 _38 _59 _59 __ 540 ____ 455 ___t04 (05)

_04_(t04)__ Appledrop ________ 56 _75 _75 _52 _74 _53 _51 _51 _65 __ 552 ____ 450 ___ 06 (t07)

t 05_(03)__ Artane2002 _______ 67 _48 _87 _61 _63 _43 _57 _65 _49 __ 540 ____ 449 ___ 07 (03)

_09_(10)__ JPmarn ___________63 _76 _69 _64 _39 _40 _49 _66 _59 __ 525 ____ 446 ___ 08 (11)

(09)_(08) __ __ NormaL _______59 _76 _58 _48 _35 _73 _56 _71 _53 __ 529 ____ 446 __ (t08) ((05))

_14_(09)__ Adam240610 ______58 _68 _54 _65 _72 _31 _49 _70 _32 __ 499 ____ 436 ___t09 (t07)

_11_(11) ___Kindred Spirit ____ 58 _82 _67 _27 _55 _48 _51 _75 _41 __ 504 ____ 436 ___t09 (t07)

_08_(06) __ DOCARCH ________54 _50 _70 _54 _54 _80 _56 _66 _49 __ 533 ____ 434 ___ 11 (10)

_13_(16) __ waterways _______ 55 _62 _29 _41 _62 _68 _71 _59 _54 __ 501 ____ 431 ___ 12 (13)

_10_(t12) __ Mr stonewall ______65 _59 _41 _68 _60 _38 _60 _68 _49 __ 508 ____ 429 ___ 13 (12)

_12_(14)__ M.T. Cranium ______ 47 _37 _65 _79 _47 _65 _42 _68 _53 __ 503 ____ 424 ___ 14 (15)

_16_(17) __ Bsal _____________41 _50 _73 _48 _62 _70 _36 _60 _57 __ 497 ____ 420 ___t15 (17)

_18_(t18) __ 200motels ________38 _65 _47 _75 _33 _63 _57 _51 _62 __ 491 ____ 420 ___t15 (18)

_15_(t12)__ Pauldry ___________58 _47 _72 _64 _79 _43 _43 _53 _39 __ 498 ____ 416 ___ 17 (14)

_17_(15)__dacogawa _________ 79 _60 _67 _61 _50 _40 _47 _44 _47 __ 495 ____ 411 ___ 18 (16)

_19_(t18) __ dasa29 __________ 48 _43 _65 _42 _54 _56 _40 _81 _51 __ 480 ____ 398 ___ 19 (t20)

_20_(20) __Gonzo ____________81 _20 _83 _40 _74 _39 _19 _46 _34 __ 436 ____ 397 ___ 20 (t20)

_22_(21)__ Western Storm _____45 _81 _74 _33 _40 _44 _ -- _72 _ -- __ 389 ____ 389 ___ 21 (19)

_21_(23) __ Joe Public _________41 _42 _45 _58 _30 _48 _10 _64 _69 __ 407 ____ 367 ___ 22 (23)

_23_(22)__ Cirrus Business _____35 _53 _73 _67 _72 _42 _ -- _ -- _ -- __ 342 ____ -- -- ___ --- (22)

_24_(26) __ Danno ___________ 38 _10 _25 _65 _66 _-- _74 _ -- _ 62 __ 340 ____ 340 ___ 23 (25)

_25_(24) __ SleetandSnow _____ 30 _41 _77 _ -- _ -- _50 _70 _48 _ -- __ 316 ____ -- -- ___ --- (24)

_26_(25) __ eon1208 _________ 53 _76 _62 _58 _ -- _46 _ -- _ -- _ -- __ 295

_27_(27) __ Esposito __________-- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _57 _57 _54 _ -- __ 168

_28_(28) __ funsterdelux ______ 59 _40 _62 _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- __ 161

_29_(29) __ sdanseo __________51 _ -- _52 _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- __ 103

_30_(31) __ Gaoth Laidir ______ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _58 _32 ___ 90

_31_(30) __ BLIZZARD7 ______ 10 _21 _34 _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- ___ 65

_32_(32) __ Bazlers __________34 _ --_ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- ___ 34

_33_(33) __ Tazio ____________-- _26 _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- ___ 26

===========================================================

Not sure if the problem was at my end or at Boards, but I had a hard time editing and posting this; anyway congrats to sunflower3 who continues to lead, and John mac who has moved into a virtual tie with Con Sensus into second place. The move to two dropped scores has resulted in a bit of chop and change in the order, will be checking the work later but hoping all is good (the connection kept freezing up and I spent 90% of two hours just waiting for the program to respond). Seems to be a lot faster right now in edit than in posting mode. Weird.

M.T. Cranium

Updated category scoring summaries:

Note: these appear in the order of total score, whereas the table above is ranked by best 7/9.

Forecaster ___IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BNS Tot Act (Pen)

Max Possible __ 225 180 180 135 090 090+_ 900 900 -- -- _Max Possible

Sunflower3 ___ 155 111 128 086 067 063 __610 607 003 _Sunflower3

__Con sensus _ 151 120 099 089 065 055 __579 579 000 _Con Sensus

john mac _____156 107 090 077 070 057 __557 557 000 _john mac

MrSkinner ____ 171 087 105 077 062 053 __555 555 000 _Mr Skinner

Appledrop ____ 148 105 094 088 055 062 __552 552 000 _Appledrop

Artane2002 ___ 141 124 092 071 056 056 __540 540 000 _Artane2002

sryanbruen ___ 150 099 091 080 058 062 __540 540 000 _sryanbruen

Tae laidir _____ 165 092 082 076 065 055 __535 535 000 _Tae laidir

DOCARCH ____ 125 131 080 081 068 048 __533 533 000 _DOCARCH

__ NormaL ____142 104 070 084 068 061 __529 529 000 __NormaL

Jpmarn ______ 178 083 105 057 057 047 __527 525 002 _ Jpmarn

MrStonewall ___134 096 094 086 055 043 __508 508 000 _MrStonewall

waterways ____165 054 079 074 063 070 __505 501 004 _waterways

Kindred Spirit __148 084 080 100 054 042 __508 504 004 _Kindred Spirit

M.T. Cranium __153 104 070 065 059 042 __503 503 000 _M.T. Cranium

Adam240610 __146 101 103 070 045 046 __511 499 012 _Adam240610

Bsal _________ 138 093 069 092 067 041 __500 497 003 _Bsal

200motels ____ 135 085 072 082 062 065 __501 491 010 _200motels

Dacogawa ____ 142 095 086 065 062 045 __495 495 000 _Dacogawa

Dasa29 _______139 039 094 096 061 051 __480 480 000 _Dasa29

Joe Public _____121 057 100 076 045 042 __441 407 034 _Joe Public

pauldry ______ 131 119 061 057 061 057 __486 486 000 _pauldry

Gonzo _______ 125 081 079 059 056 053 __453 436 017 _Gonzo

Western Storm_ 106 052 060 075 053 043 __389 389 000 _WesternStorm (7/9)

CirrusBusiness_ 110 057 041 064 034 036 __342 342 000 _CirrusBusiness (6/9)

Danno _______ 080 071 061 075 025 027 __339 340 -001_Danno (7/9)

SleetAndSnow _ 085 057 044 044 049 042 __321 316 005 _SleetAndSnow (6/9)

Eon1208 ______079 045 056 047 040 030 __297 295 002 _Eon1208 (5/9)

Funsterdelux __ 037 029 038 022 026 016 __168 161 007 _Funsterdelux (3/9)

Esposito ______ 057 034 029 023 015 010 __168 168 000 _Esposito (3/9)

sdanseo ______ 037 016 010 020 013 012 __108 103 005 _sdanseo (2/9)

Gaoth Laidir ___ 027 010 002 015 019 017 __090 090 000 _Gaoth Laidir (2/9)

BLIZZARD7 ____016 017 000 021 006 004 __064 065 -001_BLIZZARD7 (3/8)

Bazlers _______ 019 000 000 005 010 000 __034 034 000 _Bazlers (1/9)

Tazio _________001 000 012 008 005 002 __028 026 002 _Tazio (1/9)

_________________________________________

_______________________________________

Note: A negative penalty is a score adjustment upwards from the category totals, for a minimum score (which is 10).

Contest rank is based on "Act" (actual), "Tot" is category total score before penalty or adjustment.

Three highest totals in each category:

IMT __ JPmarn 178 (79.1%) ___ MrSkinner 171 (76.0%) _ waterways, tae laidir 165 (73.3%)

MAX __ DOCARCH 131 (72.8%) _Artane2002 124 (68.9%) _pauldry 119 (66.1%)

MIN __ Sunflower3 128 (71.1%)_ JPmarn, MrSkinner tied 2nd 105 (58.3%)

PRC __ Kindred Spirit 100 (74.7%)_ dasa29 96 (71.1%) __ bsal 92 (68.1%)

SUN __ John mac 70 (77.8%) __DOCARCH 68 (75.6%) _ bsal, sunflower3 67 (74.4%)

BONUS _ waterways 70 (77.8%), 200motels 65 (72.2%) sunflower3 63 (70.0%)

_________________________________________________________-

Con Sensus would rank third for MAX (120) (its only top three score)

NormaL would rank tied second for SUN (68) (its only top three score)