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September 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 31-08-2021 4:14am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,204 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for September, 2021. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.1 deg C.


    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during September.


    3. Predict the MIN temperature during September (see 2 above for overview).


    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during September.


    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during September.


    6. BONUS -- We will have a relatively short-range bonus question -- predict the total rainfall at Mullingar in the first six days of the month (rainfall ending with the observations on Monday 6th). If no rain falls by the time you enter, there will only be the late penalty for late forecasts, but if rain has fallen before your forecast is submitted (as part of a late forecast) then there may be a cap on your potential score. (just in case anyone interprets the bonus as six different forecasts, we just want the total by (and including) the sixth of the month. The normal value will be set as the GFS numerical prediction for the interval appearing on the first as part of the 00z run.


    Deadline will be 0300h Wednesday 1st of September. Late penalties are one point per four hours late, to 1500h 2nd, after which it increases to one point per hour.



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels----------- 13.3----- 21.2--- 2.2------- 82------- 98-------- 2.2mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry----------- 13.1----- 24.2--- 0.2------- 120------- 98-------- 28.7mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,557 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____ 13.3 _ 22.1_ 1.9_ 95 _ 95_ 4mm

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    sunflower3____ 13.5 _ 22.8_ 1.5_ 92 _ 85_ 3mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29____ 13.4 _ 22.0_ 1.0_ 95 _ 105_ 10mm



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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,113 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH_____12.9__23.6__0.8__96__110__4.2mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ______ 13.8 __ 22.2 __2.3 __123 __ 96 __ 8mm

    Post edited by Tae laidir on


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,996 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac____ 13.4 __24.8__ 1.8__ 103 __ 90__ 8mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways____ 13.4 _ 23.7_ -2.0_ 85 _ 101_ 11.1mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner___13.5___24.5___0.5___90___110___15mm



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  • Registered Users Posts: 752 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall____12.9___21.8__1.8___93___88___5.2mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,204 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium _______________ 13.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 105 _ 095 _ 12.1 mm

    NormaL ____________________13.1 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 0.5 mm*

    The 12z GFS on Aug 31 was showing 17.5 mm but the 00z run shows just trace amounts. Anyway, that is what NormaL is going with, for better or for worse.

    Most of the rainfall on the 12z run was Saturday into Sunday.

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public____ 14.1 _ 23 _ 1.4 _ 70 _ 120_ 3.5mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___13.1 ___ 21.02 __ 1.01 ___ 105 ___ 95 ____ 5mm.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Gaoth Laidir----------- 13.1----- 19.5--- -1.8------- 110------- 80-------- 4.5 mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,619 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Appledrop__13.4__22.5__1.8__90__85__9mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _________ 13.3 _ 22.7 _ -1.0 _ 110 _ 091 _ 2.4 mm



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo _______________ 12.9 _ 22.3 _ -0.8 _ 117 _ 092 _ 4.1 mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 ____________________13.3 _23.2 _ -1.3 _ 95 _ 105 _ 3.8mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn  ____________________13.8 _ 25.5 _ 0.5_ 120 _ 105 _ 18.5 mm



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  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610



    Adam240610__13.1__23.0__0.1__135__88__19.2mm

    Sorry for late entry!



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ____ 13.4 _ 25.0_ -0.5_ 105 _ 90_ 7mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,409 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Danno ____ 13.8 _ 24.2_ 0.7_ 80 _ 115_ 13mm



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,204 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of Forecasts September 2021


    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Prc Mul 1-6

    Joe Public _________ 14.1 _ 23.0 _ 1.4 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 3.5

    Jpmarn ___________ 13.8 _ 25.5 _ 0.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___18.5

    Danno ______ (-4) __13.8 _ 24.2 _ 0.7 _ 080 _ 115 ___13.0

    Tae laidir __________13.8 _ 22.2 _ 2.3 _ 123 _ 096 ___ 8.0

    MrSkinner _________ 13.5 _ 24.5 _ 0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___15.0

    M.T. Cranium ______ 13.5 _ 24.0 _-1.5 _ 105 _ 095 ___12.1

    sunflower3 ________ 13.5 _ 22.8 _ 1.5 _ 092 _ 085 ___ 3.0

    Bsal _______ (-3) __ 13.4 _ 25.0 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 7.0

    john mac __________13.4 _ 24.8 _ 1.8 _ 103 _ 090 ___ 8.0

    waterways ________ 13.4 _ 23.7 _-2.0 _ 085 _ 101 ___11.1

    Appledrop _________ 13.4 _ 22.5 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 085 ___ 9.0

    Dasa29 ___________ 13.4 _ 22.0 _ 1,0 _ 095 _ 105 ___10.0


    ___ Con Sensus _____13.4 _ 23.0 _ 0.7 _ 096 _ 095 ___ 7.0


    Artane2002 ________ 13.3 _ 23.2 _-1.3 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 3.8

    Dacogawa _________ 13.3 _ 22.7 _-1.0 _ 110 _ 091 ___ 2.4

    200motels _________13.3 _ 21.2 _ 2.2 _ 082 _ 098 ___ 2.2

    sryanbruen ________ 13.3 _ 22.1 _ 1.9 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 4.0

    pauldry ___________ 13.1 _ 24.2 _ 0.2 _ 120 _ 098 ___28.7

    Adam240610 __(-1) _13.1 _ 23.0 _ 0.1 _ 135 _ 088 ___19.2

    Kindred Spirit ______ 13.1 _ 21.0 _ 1.0 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 5.0

    Gaoth Laidir _______ 13.1 _ 19.5 _-1.8 _ 110 _ 080 ___ 4.5


    ___ NormaL _______ 13.1 _ 25.0 _-1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 0.5


    DOCARCH _________ 12.9 _ 23.6 _ 0.8 _ 096 _ 110 ___ 4.2

    Gonzo ____________ 12.9 _ 22.3 _-0.8 _ 117 _ 092 ___ 4.1

    Mr stonewall _______ 12.9 _ 21.8 _ 1.8 _ 093 _ 088 ___ 5.2

    ________________________________________

    23 forecasts means that Con Sensus (median) is 12th ranked forecast in each category.



  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Most models forecasting little or no rain for Mullingar.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,204 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Looks like it all went further north but Newport had over 10 mm earlier. It all went up towards Ulster though.

    GFS 12z on Aug 31 not good, GFS 00z Sep 1 much closer. Will likely beat all of us.



  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Mullingar 0.2mm yesterday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,619 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    We should get our Max temperature today.



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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,113 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Probably, and probably a higher one tomorrow. 🙂



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