Monday 23rd August

FiftyP

 Jumps today at Ballinrobe. Is this the first sign of a proper jumps season approaching? There’s a few horses I’ve seen from a quick browse over the first three races that had a bit of a break in their season, but seem to be pushing ahead as four year olds. They had a bit of a run in March and April, a bit of a rest since then, plus some schooling I’d imagine, and are looking to forge ahead with the proper jumps season coming up on us. I’m not sure we’ll see the first flickering of any stars today, but the first signs of some solid horse? Probably.

Ballinrobe

4.40 Grozni ew 11/2 3 places 0.2

The favourite is Kendancer. He’s definitely been there or thereabouts, but I feel like a lot of the betting is purely on experience, not improvement, and the idea he must win sometime. It’s a safe choice. Sweet Flight has Jordan Gainford booked, but an eight year old horse, albeit with a bumper win, a second and third (and a sixth) but hasn’t been raced in almost three years, I don’t see how you go with it unless you have some inside information. Fancy a Cosmo looks a nice horse, but completely variable, definitely improving, and his odds on other days (coming third from 33/1) show there’s a lot of confidence behind him at 10/3. I think Grozni is the smart bet here. 13/2, good chance of at least getting your stake back with e/w, an expereinced horse that’s won on the flat but hasn’t had the stamina to win out over the extra two furlongs on his races over 2m4f. Maybe the odds should be saying something, that he was favoured to do it, and doesn’t have the speed for 2m2f, still, he’s my selection.

Just as I write that Grozni has gone into 11/2, making the e/w bet a lot trickier. I think I have to stick with my opinion, still. Especially if I don’t want to spend the day tracking odds.

5.15 Born to Rule ew 9/1 3 places 0.25

A really fascinating race. The big tell in this is the bookies offering extra places. They think it’s going to be mayhem. All the top weights have marks against them, even if they’ve been asked for something in more difficult races. Na Caith Tobac and Flying Scotsman have done battle. Flying Scotsman has questions over his jumping, and Na Caith Tobac has a look of more improvement. At the very top weight Glorious Zoff seems to have lost his way. Nazine is another who seems to have lost their way. I watched them earlier this year and they looked very impressive, but their latest two runs have been poor. There’s no money really coming on for them either, which says a lot. At the bottom of the weights Baltinglass Hill, Red Ball of Fire, Barnacullia, to a degree, and Born to Rule all look well rated for this, and could pull something off. The market seems to agree. My big question about this race is the jumping. Apart from Na Caith Tobac, and from a quick glance at the notes, every horse has questions around their jumping. It might seem counter intuitive, but I’m going with Born to Rule here because he seems new-ish to hurdles, seems to have taken to them with a win in his first maiden, and might just be a horse who’s enjoying himself.

5.45 Belles Benefit ew 12/1 3 places 0.2

Not a real race for me. Erins Benefit less than 2/1 because of a string of 2nds and 3rds, but never actually ran something this distance before. Closest is a 2m5f she fell in. All that being said it might still be an easy race for her, there’s just not quality elsewhere. Closest in the betting is Sempre Presto, similar to Erins Benefit, but her results aren’t as good, and again doesn’t have the distance proven, nevermind results on the ground. Sweet Street is just outside 2/1, and with Paul Townend booked I think they’re looking to pick something up in the race. Again, it’s a case of never getting a result, albeit some results on heavier ground (I have to doubt Ballinrobe is actually “good” ground,) again makes it look like they’re just going to outclass the opposition rather than be actually suited to and have shown they’re ready for this (I suppose it is a Mares Maiden Hurdle.) Belles Benefit is the selection for me. Just over two weeks since their last race when they fell, but there’s some results and some exucses given in their other results. Possibly looking to chin the other horses, but I think it’s an “intellectual” ew call on her.

6.15 Daisy’s Hollow ew 20/1 4 places 0.25

A real crapshoot of a race. Top weight is claim 5lbs with Jordan Gainford, and his name is really, really starting to speak for him. The rest of the form for the other horses is all over the place, a real muddle of distances and ground. Picking through the mud Daisy’s Hollow is one of few with some examples of performance over a longer distance, and on good ground. She has to be the pick for me, especially with a familiar jockey claiming 7lbs.

6.45 Fleurys Fort ew 16/1 4 places 0.25

A much better division of this handicap. Some horses with ability at the distance and ground, even if never quite getting there, among the horses. Secret Cargo at top weight, and drifting in the market, has shown ability in chasing, and returns to hurdles where his form has been poor. A dice roll? Or a plan? Father Jed, a 10 year old, seems to like better-ish ground, I just wonder if the going is as stated in Ballinrobe. The distance and going, if correct, could suit him. The betting seems to show that as well. Let her flow has two good results this season, but was gash before then. Paul Townend booked, and I can’t tell if they’re looking to bash this race and move up, or whether they’re looking for one last day out. Stolen Moment looks good at the full 3 miles, but I don’t know about pace at two furlongs shorter. Fleurys Fort is an eleven year old, and may just come good in a busy race, with an ability on shorter, heavier ground, so maybe the 2m6f will be just right.

7.15 Visionman win 7/2

Only three horses in it according to the betting, Visioman, Exit Poll and Ballyoisin. Exit Poll I’m unsure has the pace for this, especially not if Ballyoisin can come back after almost two years off. I’m constantly surprised by old chasers coming back after long breaks, it’s a type of racing some horses just love, and the market/bookies is showing some love. Visioman I feel likes better ground, or somewhat softer ground over middle distances. He’s the only horse I can see pulling something out of this, if Ballyoisin fails. Equally he’s a horse I can see absolutely tanking, just not being right for the race, but at 7/2 it’s definitely worth FiftyP on.

7.45 Broomfields Kan ew 33/1 3 places 0.25

An interesting race given it’s a Beginners. I don’t think any horse here will be tearing it up in significant races, unless Ennemi Public really hammers them. The doubt there is whether he has the distance. Unproven in hurdles at longer length, the more considered chasing might suit, and it’s a real “try and find out” race here, especially given everything else seems to be suiting. The Dabbler has some very good runs behind him, for me it’s a question of does that ability make it to the end, carrying some weight, with other horses trying to out-tactic him. At 2/1 it’s not an easy bet. I, however, am going mad. Broomfields Kan has shown little ability in points, little ability at 3m hurdles, and little ability on 2m4f chases. I have some feeling the horse might just like this, however. And could just sneak a place (or be PU’ed if he doesn’t take to it.) My big gamble of the day. Broomfields Kan, that I really should wait for better odds on, but will let my BOG ride it out.

No Super Yankee for me today. Yesterday was too much of a ride. And being back at jumps I'm back on my bollocks of thinking anything can happen.