Its not a value bet its not a money making, rather a losing scheme. Accums are bookies wet dream
How do you know it's not a value bet?
A 1/10 shot that should be 1/12 is value.
OP never mentioned multis, just short prices.
OP, in the long run, it's not a money maker
It is if the 1/10 shot is actually a 1/12 shot.
Its all realtive to what the true value it, whats the closing line etc. Bookies have their margin worked into what the believe the odds should be when they initially release them. They get it wrong at times, particularly on non-main stream events (say Euro basketball, lower tier soccer). The odds they offer on main stream events, which attracts the most money, typically gets adjusted from their original line based on punters staking, eg B365 release asian card markets for certain leagues, lads who work out what they believe value is then place an amount (based on how off the bookie price is) on the lines and the lines will change quick if numerous people see this (im in 2 groups of 300+ people that require getting the price within 10 seconds of the tip coming out, odds move very quickly and adjust to what the "true" value is. Now what the true value is, is hard to say but when lads do their model across 1000's of bets and are in prifit then it suggests their model is better than the bookies model. theres value
Im by no means an expert in this and am only punting properly about 13/14 months now but ive learned a lot from finding the right people (and ditching others!) im nicely up, am floating at about 10/11% ROI. I started out placing such accums from time to time mixed in with bets from people id found but i quickly realised those accum punts where a disaster.
Irrelevant to be fair. OP is asking about backing short prices, not prices that are out of line
But if he's backing short prices that arent value the loss of value is multiplied each time he takes a low odds line, making it worse and worse Its a recipe to a zero bank
It will work for a while. Maybe a week. Then you'll lose it on something like a tennis match. 1/10 is by no means free money.
It's not irrelevant.
If you're backing short prices that are out of line in your favour, you will make money.
And the opposite is also true.
If he's backing short prices that are value, the value multiplies each time he takes a low odds line.
If you're betting 100% of your bank at any price, it's a recipe to a zero bank.
"It will work for a while. Maybe a week. Then you'll lose it on something like a tennis match. 1/10 is by no means free money."
Agreed. There is no such thing as free money. In theory a 1/100 shot will lose once every 101 times.
However, if you're backing 1/10 shots that should be shorter (applies to any price), you will make money.
If you're backing any price that's out of line in your favour you'll make money if your sample size is large enough.
But that's not what the op is referring to
From my reading of this what the OP is talking about is backing 10 short price favorites in single bets. If all 10 come in he will win €10 for the €100 staked. I have seen people do that before and at shorter prices. The issue here is you need all of them to win to turn a profit if one of the singles lets you down you will get back including your stake €99 for the €100 risked. To me the risk is not worth the reward