Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120388805#Comment_120388805

There's a construction section on boards - I've seen some people quoted 5k sq metre on it. Not sure if the 4" solids are gold plated or not!

If there's eejits that'll pay it there should always be a builder to milk them dry!

Viscount Aggro

Im talking 40 SqM extensions.

manniot2

I was quoted 2k per SM this week. Dublin. It was based on a 25sm extension.

BoxcarWilliam99

Reported by RTE 30 mins ago

"House prices and rents to continue to rise - Esri"

House prices and rents will continue to rise "certainly over the next 12 months", the ESRI has warned, with the increases probably continuing for "two to three years".

Dr Kieran McQuinn, Research Professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute, said that population growth is likely to be revised upwards later this year.

He told the Committee on Budgetary Oversight that this will drive "structural demand" for housing, with demand exceeding supply "over the medium term".

herbalplants

Bad news for Waterford

https://www.rte.ie/news/munster/2023/0322/1365695-waterford-jobs/

combat14

Google ‘forcing’ compulsory redundancies in Dublin rather than offering voluntary schemes, union claims

The Financial Services Union claims that Google has rejected voluntary redundancy options and will now force compulsory layoffs on 240 of its 5,000 staff.

https://m.independent.ie/business/technology/google-forcing-compulsory-redundancies-in-dublin-rather-than-offering-voluntary-schemes-union-claims-42400020.html

uncertain times for many tech workers in ireland

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120389020#Comment_120389020

Even the average square footage only gives a very rough idea, you need to know the complexity of the quoted work to put real meat to the figures.

Bass Reeves

40sqm is 430sq ft.

200k is as extraordinary price unless you are doing a complete revamp to the rest of the house.

At that kind of price I be subcontracting it. Lay out your ground dig it out and get the foundations in. You will often find subbies that will do roof and block work as a task and maybe plastering as well. Windows are an easy sort. Electrical and plumbing are relatively easy to contract. Get a good QS to prices the job @DownByTheGarden he will have contacts for the project as well. You will probably come in at less than half the price

The builder doing that job will have 100k+ for himself out of it.

With house prices continuing to rise and interest rates showing no sign of stopping inflating, it truly is a horrific time to be trying to buy a house. I didn't think I'd ever emigrate but it looks more and more likely now.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120387817#Comment_120387817

All the more reason to prioritise the elimination of the causes of dysfunction. At least 30 years and counting now, when will we learn?

As this progresses, the more people get priced out. Shared ownership and changes to lending rules attempt to counteract this, however in effect these schemes/policies maximise the risk in what increasingly appears to be a certain incoming recession.

This is no different to 100% mortgages in 05/06 juat a different transmission mechanism

In other news in the USA, in 2023 Commercial property loans totalling 1.35 trillion reset from the low rates of the last decade to the current rates of 5% plus margin. Many of these loans are held by the mid size banks that are currently experiencing difficulties with their "safest" assets

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120390725#Comment_120390725

The global financial system is fecked, in all honestly. The money printing over the last few years probably bought some times, but ultimately, the infinite growth model can't go on forever.

What really worries me is not so much the fallout from the next major financial disaster but rather what the powers that be may do to try to save the system. One needs only to look to something like the WEF to see the kind of utter lunatics and madmen who are at work in the world.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120390725#Comment_120390725

I can see there being a real issue here over the next 12 months as rates increase, mortgage affordability is going to be an issue for a lot of people and this country does not do house repossessions in any meaningful way if this had come at any other time we may of seen a blip but when you add in the cost of living pressures, energy crisis and homeless crisis this is going to be a real test for the lads in government. What do they do? You only have to look at the eviction ban to see that no matter what decision they make its going to cause a knock on effect. I would hazard a guess most on here knows someone living in a house they have just stopped paying the mortgage and with our legal system it enables them to stay put ad infinitum, leaving the banks on the hook for a mortgage that is not getting paid and an asset they cannot repossess. This before even looking into the abyss that is the commercial property sector.

We wll also see a lot more properties coming on stream to buy (maybe rent) from the governments enforcement of planning permission on AirBnBs 12k is the number being discussed

mike_cork

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120390983#Comment_120390983

The AirBnB thing is delayed until the end of the year now -

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/plans-to-free-up-12000-properties-for-long-term-rental-in-disarray-as-new-airbnb-register-delayed-by-eu-42400326.html

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120391079#Comment_120391079

Yeah but those who own the properties are not going to wait till the end of the year and have this decision forced on them and I can see a lot heading for the exit door over the next 6 months. I also believe its fanciful the gov think that the majority of those who own the properties will just rent then after the way the game has been stacked against landlords over the last couple of years I cant see that happening.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120391094#Comment_120391094

It will similar to the rush to the door when they brought in the renters tax credits last year. There will be many non-tax-compliant ones who will want to get out before they are caught!

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120390725#Comment_120390725

Don't see how the dysfunction can be fixed without a huge clear-out of vested interests. And there is no political will on the horizon for the latter.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120391121#Comment_120391121

Even the healy raes were split on the eviction ban, I don't think politics can get away with it for too much longer.

Politicians of a particular colour are amongst the biggest vested interest. They still think higher house prices get more votes, that dynamic is changing as everything else is sacrificed to maintain them

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120391176#Comment_120391176

Probably now at the stage of only being 1 or 2 elections away from a scorched-earth hard left government.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120391176#Comment_120391176

Michael Healy Rae is crafty. He realised that an extension of the ban would give leverage for possible other concessions

o1s1n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120391104#Comment_120391104

Do we actually know if there was a rush to the door when the renters tax credit was brought in or is that an assumption? It's a logical assumption, but an assumption nonetheless. I don't remember reading anything about it anywhere but I may have missed something.

Anecdotally, folks I know who are in dubious cash only rental situations are all still in said dubious cash only rental situations, nobody was turfed out and nothing was sold up.

MacronvFrugals

Accenture to axe 19,000 jobs worldwide

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2023/03/23/accenture-to-axe-19000-jobs-worldwide/

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120391094#Comment_120391094

I disagree, I expect it to be enforced like speeding, some unlucky ones will get caught, the vast majority will not. You are currently required to have planning for short lets, and yet there have been virtually no applications. Also, as long as there is a shortage of hotel rooms, local councils will know that short lets will be essential for tourism/local businesses.

This is all just playing a tune for the audience.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120392028#Comment_120392028

Are the gov not bringing in plans to fine those who are now found to be in breach of the short term let planning breach? Sure we will see if we see a huge number of properties hitting the market in the next few months then we will know the airbnb landlords are running for the hills

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120392059#Comment_120392059

There is more to it than that. There as an article a few months ago where a Dublin CoCo supervisor outlined what would be involved in getting a prosecution, I’m sure the article is linked earlier in this thread. Council staff, two, have to observe short let tenants actually in the property, they must also confirm that it is the property owner who is short letting without planning rather than a tenant. The new legislation places a responsibility on sites like Airbnb to ensure planning is in place, but it is easy to find shortlets on other platforms not as compliant as Airbnb.

The existing legislation on short-lets make absolutely no difference, neither will the new legislation. The fines are equivalent to a couple of weeks rental.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120391358#Comment_120391358

Any assumption that LL's are less compliant than any other sections of business/ society is waffle. There is no indication that the renter's tax credit increase numbers exiting. These was 40+k left since 2016 so it was a case of trying to shut the door when the horse had bolted

Beigepaint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120392442#Comment_120392442

Wow it’s incredible how the legal system has us tied up in knots where a simple check cannot be practically done.

Here is how I would conduct these checks:

1. Do you pay LPT?

If so, please furnish your declaration of earnings from revenue that you have not received any funds from Airbnb.

If you have received funds from Airbnb, please find attached:

• Antisocial usage of property charge.

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120392776#Comment_120392776

They are not really interested in getting rid of Airbnb. Like anything in politics theses days its a populist show.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120392776#Comment_120392776

Airbnb automatically forward all income gained from the site by each Host to Revenue, so they already have that information.

Airbnb is only one platform, others sites such as Facebook, Bookings.com and the myriad of other sites you can book shortlets on, do not have that agreement with Revenue as the guest has the option of paying directly/in cash rather than through the site.

LPT is paid by the property owner, a tenant who uses Airbnb for income would not be required to make such a declaration.

Up until we see the new Legislation, advertising alone is not proof that the Host actually had short let guests anymore than having a fast car is proof that you broke the speed limit. So at present, the LA have to actually catch the Host in the act of hosting guests for a short duration.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120393041#Comment_120393041

The LAs are gonna be mighty busy snooping on AirBnB landlords and processing house sale offers to private landlords for eviction threatened tenants, it would seem.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120393063#Comment_120393063

The Dublin CoCo guy, said new staff would have to be hired and trained, plus given transport etc, so my money is on this being like the speed campaigns (sorry for using the same analogy again), there will be a few prosecutions occasionally, then they will accept that short let’s bring much needed visitors/money to areas where there are no available hotel rooms.

I know people working in the CoCo in my area, they are hugely understaffed, I’m not sure where the personnel are going to come from if other departments are already crying out for staff.