Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120075439#Comment_120075439

Which is why I guess the ECB have indicated rates will go up a good bit.

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120077005#Comment_120077005

If they don't, the EU project will collapse as populism will fester. This is why it is a slow motion car crash but ultimately a crash that is coming. Inflation kills economies, but a crash in bubble sectors? Pick your poison but we all know that individuals are the ones that vote, not companies and it is simply a case of having strength in numbers. I still think, a year later, we will see rates at 3.5% but the biggest catalyst for the shock will be QT; this will start smoking out the debt zombie corporations and drag investors out of property investment which has come to be seen as a relatively stable asset class, which is ludicrous given the massive volatility in the returns the last last twenty years.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068820#Comment_120068820

I'd be happy happy if they didn't prop it up and fecked off out of it for a while tbh.....propping up rents while everything else is going to **** ain't much use, let them collapse and **** off would be how I'd feel about them.

They've done nothing but make a balls of it for around 3 decades now

I see Citigroup have just signed a contract to locate their European headquarters in Docklands, €300m investment in the office property in total. Good news for the office sector. Also, office lettings up 35% year on year in 2022, but still down around the same amount on 2019 before the pandemic struck, obviously wfh is making a huge difference, but employees still need the homes/rentals to work in.

Not all doom and gloom.

https://www.irishtimes.com/property/commercial-property/2023/01/06/citigroup-signs-deal-for-new-european-hq-in-dublin-docklands/

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120080917#Comment_120080917

I'd say the smaller, older office buildings will be obliterated as smaller operations cut space and stop renewing leases when they come due for renewal. Thinking of all the old Georgian buildings around Dublin 2, that surely will end up being largely vacant soon if not already. These commercial leases are typically for a few years so the fallout hasn't happened fully yet.

The BREIT bailout by the university of California is a real shockwave and a lot of the investors in Irish commercial property are foreign domiciled so it's one to keep watching.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120081106#Comment_120081106

I agree in my job, they closed three floors due to most working from home. The lease is up for renewal in 2024 and they may go for a smaller office space. They would be stupid not to!

Villa05

Affordable homes can be built in Europe at up to half the cost of comparable developments in Ireland.

Development in Naas compared with similar developments in similar areas in eu

Labour costs were ruled out as significant factor in the cost differential. Article on Sunday business post and in depth discussion on newstalk off the record newspaper panel 22 minutes in

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/internal-report-lda-pays-more-to-build-affordable-homes-than-eu-neighbours/

cute geoge

people will have to get it into their head ireland is a high cost ecenomy.and then we have a green government adding on green taxes on top .The planning system is a nightmare and labour shortage to boot.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120081941#Comment_120081941

High con economy would be closer to the truth in my opinion. In above survey labour costs in Ireland were at the lower end of all surveyed as detailed in the article.

It's the white collar not blue that's the problem

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120081595#Comment_120081595

I can't access this article but McW seems to be making this point. I am not sure what the overhang of commercial property is here now (and I appreciate there is a difference between older legacy offices to the newer state of the art ones) but it appears ultimately there won't be enough uptake to fill all these offices.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/01/07/david-mcwilliams-who-is-going-to-rent-all-these-expensive-offices-now/

Some numbers (from Q322) on office vacancy rates in some US cities.

Commercial real estate advisory Savills today released the first batch of its Q3 quarterly office market reports on the major markets in the US, 12 markets in total. Houston tops the list in terms of the largest share of vacant office space on the market, with an availability rate of 30.7%. San Francisco is second with 28.9%, and shooting higher.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10/04/office-reits-massacred-as-the-future-that-office-markets-were-built-for-got-cancelled-by-working-from-home/

dashdoll

I'm at my wits end with living in Dublin. I totally understand that my situation isn't bad at all compared to others but just feel completely stuck between a rock and a hard place. 35, single buyer on 80k per year. Renting and saving a grand a month. 60k in the bank but sure I haven't a hope. Would need a three bed ideally as want to be able to rent a room for a few years. Max I can borrow is 320k and that is with the new x4 rules. So max max purchase price of 380k which gets me nothing. I need to be close to South dublin because of niche nature of my work. Could move down to Limerick city where I have family but won't work with the work I do and virtually no opportunities in that line of work down there. New builds that were 360k 18mths ago there now going for 430k. Not to be a whinger but single buyers are just being told to go f**k themselves it seems.

Is the consensus that Dublin will remain super expensive for the foreseeable and to just get out or what do people think? I know we have no magic 8 balls but good to hear other perspectives. I dont know who on my salary or the many people on salaries lower can have a shot at home ownership. Depressing post I know but just very fed up!

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120083524#Comment_120083524

Sorry for butting here but why do you think you should buy a 3 bedroom house as a single buyer?

Perhaps it is the way you are looking at property, I am sure you can buy something for 380k. Maybe not a new built but what about a second hand? What about looking further to Wicklow /Arklow?

I think you need to look deeper and may find something.

There are people out there who gets buy on lower wage than you, with a kid too.

dashdoll

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120083577#Comment_120083577

Thanks for reply. I know there are people on salaries below mine with kids etc and in worse off position and I accept that.

I'd like to rent a room to help with mortgage for a few years particularly given that I will be paying it solely and who knows what's around the corner..I think that's a clever thing to do if I could. Definitely know a I'm not the worst off but studying gor many years, working long hours, sacrificing trips and social life to save and getting nowhere has made me a little bitter and not afraid to admit that 😅

Rothmans

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120083524#Comment_120083524

I'm not trying to be harsh here, but at the end of the day, you're a single buyer, with a single person's needs and budget.

There are plenty of pretty nice 2 bed apartments within your budget. A 3 bed would be lovely, and we'd all like a nice 3 bed house in Dublin City. But, realistically you'll need a double income for that to happen.

And I say all this as a single person myself. Just because we might want a 3 bed house in Dublin doesn't mean we are entitled to it. Buy what your budget can afford and what suits your circumstances.

dashdoll

Thanks for the feedback, absolutely take some of your points on board. Tbh I'd be reluctant to start looking in random areas like Arklow etc as I suppose having a network and people I know close by is important to me as a sole buyer. That's why I'm more interested on people's thoughts on limerick v waiting it out in Dublin. Not to be rude but I know it does sound rude but I don't really care if people think a single person 'deserves' a 3 bed or not.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120083646#Comment_120083646

Am I missing something , why do you need a 3 bed to rent a room out ?

SwimClub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120083524#Comment_120083524

Owning a place isn't the be all and end all, the main thing is being healthy and you have a good job and plenty of savings.

If you're feeling life is all about saving for a place you can't get, it might be good to take a break from saving for a while and spend some money on things you enjoy, maybe go on a holiday.

No-one knows what will happen with prices but my feeling is we won't have anything like the last drop after '09, because they introduced much tighter regulations on mortgage lending and we have massive supply issues. I think property prices in the future here might now be more likely to behave like other European countries France, Germany etc. where the price drops were much smaller post 2009. But I wouldn't be too shocked if I was wrong either, Ireland is a very small country and the economic situation can change very quickly.

GoldFour4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120083646#Comment_120083646

South Dublin is a broad area. What particular areas are you looking for? You could afford a place in a lot of areas already.

You could also rent out a room in a 2 bed apartment.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120083524#Comment_120083524

Man this post is hilarious. Why can't I buy a big enough house near my job so I can rent a room to some poor schmuck to help pay my mortgage!

Its just a cruel cruel world doll 🤣

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068247#Comment_120068247

Ive had mine ready to go on the market since November. No point putting it on the market over Christmas so we've decided. Middle of February is the best time. I think the next few months will see an increase on properties going on the market. Anyone who wnats to take up being a landlord because its such easy money should be able to pick up an investment property or two then :)

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120069759#Comment_120069759

I have a theory that he is a special thread assassination ninja.

Whenever a thread is getting too interesting he is sent in to destroy it and get it closed :)

jj880

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120083524#Comment_120083524

Posters on here telling you to just suck it up is a sad state of affairs. Implying the property market is grand (they know it isn't) and you are some kind of whinger (they know you aren't). Unfortunately you will get little sympathy from certain people in this thread who are already property owners. It suits them for you to mortgage yourself to the max on a shoebox to keep prices rising. You are 100% entitled to be angry and fed up.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120084468#Comment_120084468

I don’t see any posters doing what you say, just questioning why the poster needs a 3 bed house and pointing out that a smaller property would be within the posters budget. It’s a valid query.

SwimClub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120084419#Comment_120084419

Interesting theory, spam the thread to hide anything that bot central doesn't want out there, whoever bot central might be....

Wonder do people get paid to do this full time, looking at the number of posts from certain profiles you'd hope they are getting paid for their sake.

manniot2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120083524#Comment_120083524

Get into a trouple like Una Healy - 3 of ye can contribute to the mortgage.

SwimClub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120084468#Comment_120084468

I think that people in this country have an unhealthy obsession around the link between happiness and home ownership. Whether you own your home or not we are all renting from the grim reaper, nothing in life is guaranteed for anyone and your happiness doesn't depend on whether you have the deeds to the property you live in or not. Having to move from time to time can happen to anyone, of course it's an issue if you have nowhere to go and the rental market is a mess but there are only 11000 homeless in a population of 5 million, so the probability of that impacting anyone, especially in a good job, so negatively is still a very low probability not worth being miserable worrying about if you aren't in that situation.

No one person is just entitled to a 3 bed house in Dublin, not even in social housing. Sure why not expect a 4 or 5 bed? It isn't about what anyone deserves, it's about what you can afford because you are competing with couples, families, single people with higher salaries or wealthy family helping them etc. Most of them are working hard and the majority are doing third level education, that doesn't entitle you to a house these days (versus e.g. an apartment). There are a certain number of houses available and there is huge competition for those. There are cities all over the world where things are the same or worse, young people leave them to work or got to college and don't come back. I left Dublin myself, partly because of the cost of houses and then moved back when I could afford it.

jimmybobbyschweiz

There is also the issue of people buying houses with only a few years of a horizon for holding the house. The so called "property ladder" is something that should be climbed in order to get onto the boat of lifetime financial security.

In my part of the world, Germanic speaking, properties are bought by individuals predominantly to live in for the long haul, which drastically alters the housing market. The concept of taking a starter property with the aim of upgrading in a few years is not that common. The problem with this concept being a widespread concept is that the market then depends on prices continuing to rise in order for that starter property to be cashed in and this dependency has resulted in the State needing to prop up the market as it is not sustainable for housing costs to significantly outpace the rate of inflation. Now we are passed the inflection point and waiting for the drop, once again. Lessons not really learned unfortunately.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120084625#Comment_120084625

Most house built or bought in rural Ireland are bought for the long haul. Its really only in Irsh cities where u see this up grading/moving up the snakes and ladders.

SwimClub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120084625#Comment_120084625

That is definitely an interesting aspect, I was going to advise OP not to buy an apartment, if long term set on a house, because in a drop apartments drop more relative to houses. I don't know whether new build apartments are now more suitable as long term homes than they used to be. The ladder attitude certainly used to result in apartments that aren't designed as long term homes with insufficient storage etc. and probably leading to people not wanting to rent or live in them longer term. All of that is leading to them dropping more too when things get tough. Building more apartments that are livable long term homes would help change attitudes, it's hard though from here as any new regulations will drive up costs.

FedoraTheAura

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120084468#Comment_120084468

Yet to see anyone implying the property market is ‘grand’.

People are understandably wondering why one person is looking for a 3 bedroom house. It wouldn’t be realistic or gain much sympathy if a couple with a few kids (the group 3 bedroom houses are aimed towards) had the capacity, but refused, to buy one and were ‘angry and fed up’ they couldn’t buy a mansion in south Dublin.