Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

coolshannagh28

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119653113#Comment_119653113

Yes this was high on the agenda while the troika were here and the European model of rental with security of tenure and rent was proposed. However we instead went to the US and outsourced housing using fire sales and tax breaks .The net result is where we are now with a monopolised market and sky high prices and rents. The only possible upside is that risk has been offshored to these institutions; how that works out if there is a crash is anyones guess.

Villa05

Liz truss mini budget for the wealthy has sent sterling into freefall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119654816#Comment_119654816

They also raised rates by 50bps yesterday

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119654891#Comment_119654891

rates should stabilise the currency - the giveaway budget is likely to exacerbate inflation which is why people are dumping sterling now

it will rebound, but over time its going to weaken significantly

Rising rates over there should cause house prices to drop, but then these inflationary budget measures could do the opposite. Stamp duty exemption under 250k I think, and income tax cuts mean more money in circulation.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119655095#Comment_119655095

The weaker currency will really hurt them as the import so much…it will drive their inflation higher

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119654816#Comment_119654816

The IMF may be called in soon id say, another sterling crisis with clowns like that blowing borrowed money left right and center and interest rates going only one way. Anyway no loss, Ireland is not near as dependent on them as in the past. If the euro was anyway decent at the minute we would be having serious bargains up the north in ASDA. Load the trolley up with cheap gargle

Mr Hindley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119654816#Comment_119654816

Ah, feck. Most of my savings are still in the UK (I lived there for a long time), so that's another hole blown in my deposit :( I've gone sale agreed but it's now looking very dicey if I can still afford the house I've gone for. I hate the idea of being another of those people who pull out and leave the vendor high and dry because the finance didn't work out, but that's the direction I'm heading in. Gahhhh.

wassie

Did you not post earlier this year that your deposit had gone down as it was invested in funds that had taken a hit? If you had savings in Sterling that you needed for a deposit in Euros then you are always going to be exposed to a currency risk. This is the reason why banks insists on minimum deposits sitting in a savings account.

That being said, as an investor who has had their fair share of 'lessons' over the years I feel your pain and hope this turns out ok.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119655402#Comment_119655402

I suspect that budget will be a red rag to the revived bull of trade unionism

growleaves

Tech compensation declining apparently. Was the pandemic housing boom created - in part - by high MNC tech salaries?

https://andrenader.substack.com/p/tech-salary-crash

https://www.protocol.com/workplace/downturn-tech-pay

Will this affect the housing market here?

IWW2900

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119659187#Comment_119659187

Of course it will contribute, rising rates will effect everything.

Not to mention that some of these tech staff were paid in stock that only went up. Now the markets are crashing.

Villa05

The data filters out state activity. Should investment funds be restricted to new builds if the government is adament on increasing supply allowing them into the 2nd hand market only guarantees increasing price without doing anything for supply

Institutional investors and real estate firms snapped up one in ten second-hand homes in this country, amounting to more than 4,500 properties

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/investors-shelled-out-almost-e1bn-on-second-hand-irish-homes-in-2021/

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119659187#Comment_119659187

Not only tech. I’ve been in the job market recently and financial services positions in MNCs are generally being pitched at what would have been the salary of the next level down role.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119662617#Comment_119662617

The problem is that there is no increase in overall supply. If the proposal is investment funds are only allowed to purchase where they BTR and in doing so increase supply then maybe but it can’t be a free for all and pull resources away from other building projects in needs to be in addition to. Without overall supply increasing any gov intervention just moves the pain from one sector to another. If investment funds are banned outright where do the rental properties that are need come from.

houseyhouse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119659198#Comment_119659198

From a skim of the linked articles it seems to be the equity portion of the compensation that is decreasing not the salary. Also tech salaries in the US are much, much higher than in Ireland. Anecdotal experience is that several people I know working in tech are continually being head hunted, though not so much the engineers as other tech workers (UX researchers, tech writers etc).

combat14

Interesting reading in latest daft report:

the number of homes available to buy on September 1 stood at nearly 15,500, which is up 22% on the same date last year and the highest total nationally in almost two years.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/ireland-house-prices-salary-needed-28076430

IWW2900

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119666692#Comment_119666692

But, but, but..... theres no supply. 😂.

Watch this number grow.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119653394#Comment_119653394

Anyone who did that was very badly advised anyone with any sense was fixing and for as long as they could.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119667792#Comment_119667792

Just because there are some more houses now, doesn’t mean there wasn’t the necessary supply to meet demand. There are now 1300 more houses for sale in Dublin (4k in total) compared to the beginning of the year, that in a city of population 1.25m.

The same daft report says there is a need for 42000 to 62000 new houses per year to meet demand in the next couple of decades.

But, but, but, hopefully you can understand there is still a significant supply issue, and would be even if that went up ten fold.

Timing belt

interesting article on supply

Galwayhurl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119668211#Comment_119668211

Just checked Daft.

There are 4627 properties for sale in Dublin right now, which is past that magic number of 4500 obviously.

Could be some truth to his theory. There is a definite cooling in Dublin 13 and Dublin 5.

fergus1001

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40959311.html

if IPAV are saying it now so it is definitely top of the market

(they have a vested interest in high prices)

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119668900#Comment_119668900

It think sales volume, 2 houses for 405k each is better than on for 450k

jimmybobbyschweiz

This is the time when something gives in the financial system, with the massive strain being exerted from an extremely strong dollar, resulting in panicked global central banks (who are likely to make policy errors and trigger something). Some type of cataclysmic event is possible in the current, hopefully temporary, but still extreme scenario. Buckle up and suck up those pennies from Pascal's magic money tree he is shaking down to let the serfs buy some bread for a few weeks!

Yet again, FG are borrowing to fuel spending to preserve the status quo rather than investing in a more sustainable economy which, ultimately, will be Ireland's downfall as there will come a time when the money won't be there and people will be wondering where all the money went when taxes are being introduced and raised. I mean; giving tens of thousands per month to SMEs just to cover energy bills without (apparently) any hurdle for them to justify their existence, with such SMEs potentially also having availed of COVID loans - meaning there are still going to be dozens or hundreds or thousands of zombie SMEs being artificially kept going from this valuable and short-term State borrowing. Further, large companies can get up to €2m each if they show solid business plans - who in the public sector can be a judge of a solid business plan!?

Long story short; precious State borrowings are predicated on an assumption that the money will always flow to Ireland and it is being squandered on keeping the economy on a ventilator rather than investing in areas where the economy might evolve and become insulated from the impending slowdown, which will ultimately result in a need to raise taxes sooner rather than later and the State will also have less cash to be such a whale in the property market.

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119668211#Comment_119668211

I think the naive view is one that thinks FG and FF have any interest in letting supply match or even overtake demand - housing for all targets falling woefully short would be shocking unless you realise that actually they are supposed to fall short in order to hopefully ensure prices don't collapse by too much supply. Unfortunately, therefore, sensible and educated commentary on the housing market from an economist is great for highlighting the blatant manipulation by the political parties but don't expect Lyons or McWilliams to be listened to on policy.

Tonesjones

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119668211#Comment_119668211

Interesting that an expert in the field and world of housing comes straight out and says inward migration is the cause and building at what looks to be double our current maximum output is the solution .

Jayesdiem

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119654086#Comment_119654086

I’m interested to know what you mean by “there is no fear of tracker mortgage holders”?

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119669582#Comment_119669582

no fear of tracker mortgage holders defaulting I presume. They have had some of the best rates imaginable for over a decade, you would have to be incredibly negligent to not build up a substantial amount of equity in that time.

Villa05

Today's budget would fund the building of 30k houses at 300k a pop and still have 1billion left over for electricity credits plus free school books

Think of the revenue that could generate and spending that could be offset for years to come

Populism has a high cost

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119669445#Comment_119669445

The solution is never to reduce immigration. Damien English doubled international visas this year in the middle of the housing crisis.

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/english-says-40000-non-eu-work-permits-are-in-offing-to-ease-labour-pressures/

I feel like a racist for bringing it up. I don't know the way to broach the subject without sounding like a racist. I can only say I have lots of friends who immigrated here and feel Ireland has benefited hugely from immigration. I don't think it is fair to discriminate based on nationality.

However, doubling international visas in a housing crisis and refugee doesn't sound like sustainable immigration to me. It sounds bonkers.