Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119177013#Comment_119177013

The developer does seem very keen to acquire the site a potential solution would be to grant permission on condition the property remains in the ownership of the developer, so should any flooding occur, they have the resources to turn it around quickly.

You'd make your money back in the next 3 years alone and it's forever a cash generating asset after that.

If we were demolishing all the stock at medium risk of flooding, there would be alot of houses knocked

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119177171#Comment_119177171

That house has a D1 rating with an oil fired hearing system and a solid fuel stove. If you a heat exchanger and got rid of the oil, put in PV solar you would be well into a B rating I imagine.

The house is overlooking Carragh lake in Kerry and is an architect design by the look of it.

It looks a superb piece of property not the worse value around

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119177171#Comment_119177171

Whether this is overpriced or not, the comparisons to other countries have always been stupid.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119177455#Comment_119177455

You would not go from D to B rating simply by changing heating system and whacking on some solar panels

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119177505#Comment_119177505

Oil fired hearing especially if it's an older type burner has a massive impact on Ber changing from oil would have a serious impact on BER rating

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119177328#Comment_119177328

Already HAP is increasing so there is no implying its actually happening. It has been unsustainable for years and when we were borrowing 20/30Billion a year to pay our debts not so long ago it was still being paid so cant see it stopping now that our deficit has been bridged.

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/housing-planning/2022/06/03/hap-to-be-increased-by-up-to-35-to-tackle-rising-rents/

Anyone thinking that our left leaning government will be taking supports away from those who are supposedly in need are delusional it will be the last thing touched , more taxes coming, if anything Sinn Fein will go even further left expect a lot more being paid out to those deemed less fortunate.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40891376.html

I love how this is headline news as if it is somehow shocking. 4% rent increases amounted to that the last few years. If households with mortgages struggle with an extra 80€ pm that would be fairly damning for their ability to actually keep living intm the house.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119177690#Comment_119177690

But D to B still seems like a huge leap...

Then again having seen someone do a BER examination on my then-apartment back in 2019 the whole BER system seems to have been designed by accountants rather than engineers.

FrancoBegbie77

Just wondering what people's thoughts are and what would they would do in my situation.

Currently have 17 months left on a 5 year fixed mortgage with BOI on a rate of 2.9% and will get €3000 at the end of that if I stay with them.

I am thinking of breaking it with them as I am worried about rising interest rates between now and when the 5 years is up.

Haven are offering 2.0% fixed for 4 years with €2000 cash back which would cover solicitor fees. This rate would bring my monthly repayments down by about €100 from what they are now. BOI have informed me I wouldn't have to pay any breakage fee with them as it stands to leave my mortgage with them.

Any advice opinions would be appreciated. Cheers

MoneyPrinterGoBuurrrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119173361#Comment_119173361

If you believe these "refugees" are going home after 3 years you aren't paying attention.

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119177955#Comment_119177955

I agree they won’t remove support but saying it will increase forever doesn’t seem realistic either.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178280#Comment_119178280

Reality does not go hand in hand with political power. People get elected on promising the sun moon and stars and there is absolutely no come back when promises are broken. Sure you only have to look at when the IMF came in to this country last time we had 2 politicians literally an hour before the government met with the IMF spouting that there was no truth to the supposed rumor that the IMF were coming in. The can kicking that has been going on for nearly 2 decades and will continue indefinitely or until such a time as an external body (IMF again) tell us to get our sh1t in order and we are in such a poor situation politically now as the current government will not kick off any of initiatives that could sort the housing crisis as Sinn Fein will be in power next and any seeds they sow now the government of the day will get the credit. Supports will be the last thing removed imagine the whinging on liveline it would be unbearable and the government of the day would be labeled as being anti-poor.

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178325#Comment_119178325

But there is a breaking point. As you say, it is all about political power. When the majority voting population won’t be able to buy a home, they (politicians) will have to make changes and it will be painful for a lot of people.

We are now in a situation where the government encourages international companies to buy the majority of new apartments via a tax benefit which distorts the rental market and pushed small landlords to quit. We even pay for the pleasure via HAP. The government is basically using our taxes to pay international companies that won’t pay tax on it (if they give most of the profits to shareholders).

In parallel, they increase construction standards which increase cost and they even compete with their own people by bidding on these houses.

To finally top it off, they launch schemes (FTB, etc) that just further increase the cost of homes as developers increase their price overnight when it is launched).

When you think about it, it is mental.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178238#Comment_119178238

The inflow has reduced substantially and outflow has already begun

If you believe we don't need some of them, I'm not the only one not paying attention

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178197#Comment_119178197

BOI mortgage will cost 1700 more until end of term. They are going to give you 3k of an interest rebate then. In the short term you are better off with BOI, however it really depends on what way interest rates are in 17 months time and in four years time. If it was for 5+ years I say go for it for four years it's probably borderline

FrancoBegbie77

Ya I am borderline at the moment too. Although I did request a rate change with Bank of Ireland yesterday which has me kinda worried that rates are going to start going up from now on. The best they are offering is 3.0% for a fixed 4 or 5 year mortgage, which is a higher rate than I am currently on and I would lose out on the €3000 cash back as well.

And this is all before the ECB start the first of their interest rate hikes in July.

Amadan Dubh

Inflation at its highest since 1984 and yet some of the Irish media trying to put up the Ray Cole death story as if it is somehow if similar importance. Obviously FF and FG advisors getting on to their media department contacts to try to deflect from the inflation story.

keoclassic

I think it's as plain as the nose on one's face that a big shock is coming. I think it's already started but they are hoping for something to slow down the inevitable. It's reported by every news outlet that some countries are in for recession either the end of this year or in the next year. We are not an entity that's ancillary to this. Let's face it, highest inflation in 40 years for crying out loud, it just cannot sustain itself.

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178744#Comment_119178744

To be fair it's not exactly breaking news that everything costs more these days.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178197#Comment_119178197

Your a bit late to the party 0.25% increase just announced with murmurings of a higher increase in September,

Speed may be of the essence, consider a 5 or 10 fixed with your own bank. Will be processed much quicker than changing bank

keoclassic

We all expect things to cost more as time goes by, but the rate of the rises currently is outrageous. That's the problem!

MoneyPrinterGoBuurrrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178835#Comment_119178835

Agreed and with the way things are going we will be back at double digit mortgage rates by 2026/2027 no doubt about it.

FrancoBegbie77

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178863#Comment_119178863

Would that be the majority think on here? That mortgage rates could go to double digits by '26/'27?

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178874#Comment_119178874

Considering 30 year Irish bond yields are at 2.3%…I would suggest it most definitely is not a majority view…

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178874#Comment_119178874

No. I think he's in a party of 1 with that assertion.

Rates will get nowhere near double digits.

MoneyPrinterGoBuurrrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178874#Comment_119178874

It could easily occur, in a four month timespan, mortgage rates have jumped 4% in the United States since the FED increased rates. A couple more hikes and they will hit double digits, bare in my mind the ECB hasn't even started yet so it may lag behind the United States.

One would be extremely reckless and naive to not consider at least 5-6 % rates by 2025 and that's being conservative. Double digits rates are guaranteed by 2030 but you will find many in the finance space predicting a five year horizon.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178930#Comment_119178930

The lack of financial literacy in this post is remarkable. Hard to know if trolling/fear mongering or genuine naivety.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178945#Comment_119178945

I also don't think rates have gone up 4% in the US. More like 2-2.5%.

Avg in 2021 was about 3%, current rates are about 5%.

I have my doubts we'll even hit 5% rates here.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178840#Comment_119178840

Many items have been getting cheaper as a result of globalisation, expect a reversal in this. The situation with cars was just the start

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178971#Comment_119178971

Yeah, but beyond that, it’s this idea that banks sit their twiddling their thumbs waiting for the next Fed Rate hike then jack up their mortgage rates every time that occurs.

Actual hikes are irrelevant, expectations of hikes are all that matter. Mortgage rates in the states fell after the last hike because expectations of future hikes softened. The picture painted as if it’s certain mortgage cost will rise further as the fed further raises rates is pure nonsense.

I know you know this. But actually worrying how much of the general public don’t!