Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041057#Comment_119041057

Maybe, but our governments and institutions say housing and cost of living are their greatest concern

Yet uber an inflation busting business model is blocked viguorsly and housing supply blocked also by the system

Rather strange

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119041171#Comment_119041171

I'm still not really sure what point you are trying to make here?

Uber's issues are worldwide, not limited to Ireland. I am unsure how Ireland's taxi regulation is related to our property market in any way.

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040390#Comment_119040390

This was discussed on the radio yesterday also (Newstalk I think), where it was mentioned Kennedy Wilson is also reporting high occupancy rates which is significant given Capital Dock is the oft quoted example of under-occupancy.

Also discussed how this was a feature early on in the pandemic as many single non-irish professionals returned home, but has reversed significantly now.

Ronan Lyons also confirmed as much in an Irish Times piece back in Feb

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/are-there-really-lots-of-vacant-high-end-apartments-in-dublin-1.4797711

Browney7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119042054#Comment_119042054

The indo has an article recently https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/revealed-ten-biggest-landlords-now-own-17000-homes-41339550.html

Would be interesting to see the other participants occupancy levels and the occupancy levels of developments finished at the end of 2021 and start of 2022 as more new developments come on stream. The likes or Orange Capital,Greystar, urbeo etc would have different disclosure requirements.

Amadan Dubh

The bailout before the crash - Dublin city council paying €500k+ for two bed apartments in Malahife for social housing! Criminal waste of money!

The buffoons will claim that this is the market price and individuals would not be able to afford them, in total ignorance to the fact that it is the State which is making this the unaffordable market price, not anything more fundamental than that.

I would be disgusted as a tax payer in a year or two, when the Budget doesn't deliver more assistance with the cost of living for tax paying, working families while the State is throwing money at the housing market to prop up the valuation of assets for the tiny minority.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/developer-to-sell-532-social-housing-units-to-dublin-councils-for-243m-1.4874883

mcsean2163

I wonder what would happen if international REITs suffer redemptions and have to liquidate.

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/hibernia-investor-exits-its-holding-ahead-of-reits-sale-to-brookfield-41524218.html

seems a funny time to buy ...

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119044313#Comment_119044313

And why would they have to do a redemption and liquidate. Most are pension funds or extra large investors.

In the case you quoted the seller may have intended to sell any. The buyer will have a small capita loss after the transaction and a dividend payment that it higher than that loss.

The offer is 1.6/ share and a 3.4% dividend/share or about another 5.4c/share. The buyer paid 1.612/share so they stand to make a 2.5% return on the purchase

mcsean2163

Why? Because if interest rates go up 2.5% it may not be attractive to get a 2.5% return on property and as markets crash investors may need margin or prefer to invest elsewhere.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119037093#Comment_119037093

The likes of these gobshites will be on joe duffy in a few years time, telling joe, their kid has to eat cereal three times a day. Wheh the crap hits the fan. That is exactly what happened last recession, a detective claimed that was what his family were doing to get by after all of the cuts...

JimmyVik

Every time the stock market takes a tumble people read all sorts into it.

Look back over the years. Any reasonably large tumble is wiped out within a year. A massive global shock will take a few years though. But every time there is any sort of decent fall people assume its a massive global shock that did it when it rarely is.

handymanwithavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119042731#Comment_119042731

This is obscene!

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119044657#Comment_119044657

Read the boy that cried wolf. It would be advisable to take note this time

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119045067#Comment_119045067

Most people use that to sayt "Stop crying wolf so much".

Never heard it used to say "The wolf must be coming this time because the boy has already been crying wolf.".

But I guess a story can be twisted to any situation :)

iColdFusion

In case anyone had any doubts about social housing being a gravy train for some, Cluid are hiring for two positions, COO and CIO, both have a salary range of €96,826 – €122,492, Cluid being a not for profit charity...

https://www.cluid.ie/career/

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119045454#Comment_119045454

This comes up all the time, that's a national organisation, large number of staff, you won't get anyone half decent from the private sector if you offer less. Extensive tax payers money is put into this, you want someone decent handling it.

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119045661#Comment_119045661

You need to read their 2020 financial report, wage bill nearly 12 million at 224 staff that's an average of 53k, 372k in vehicle leases and this is their high end pay structure, that is alot of senior management!

Amadan Dubh

The ironic thing is that they are in the business of helping those who struggle to put a roof over their head but alleviating the crisis would also put them out of business. Ireland has a big problem with NGOs in that we have far too many and there are a lot of workers in these NGOs that are not bona fide for the cause they claim to be for, because they depend for their livelihood on there being a crisis, it is never in their interest to actually solve the crisis.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119045234#Comment_119045234

A bit of a contrarian

Seriously, the reason markets bounced back in the past is that the central banks ramped up the money printing. This has created a massive asset price bubble, stoked inflation. Its alot more complicated fix and the choices appear to be between

Stagflation, Runaway inflation or deep recession or periods of all 3

This won't be fixed easily and the fed has been asleep at the wheel so there's a thrust issue on top of everything else.

This could get very messy.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119046670#Comment_119046670

In your opinion you mean :)

I think things are a lot more complicated than that to be fair. When you over simplify something you think you understand it. But Inflation, recessions, property markets and world connected economies are complicated beasts. Its messy already and noone on boards is going to have the solution for sure :)

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119046670#Comment_119046670

there's a thrust issue on top of everything else.

This could get very messy.

Are you in the right thread?

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119045760#Comment_119045760

Thats an average employee cost of 53k, gross of ER PRSI and a few other items, so average pay around 47k, a CEO on under 140k and senior level hires at 96-120k, who exactly do you think they get for that when there are sales people in their 20s making more than that in some companies?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119045454#Comment_119045454

And yet you won't actually get a CIO for that money - you'll make that as a senior engineer. Double the base maybe.

Amadan Dubh

The Airbnb CEO tweeting on Monday. He could be a card carrying member of this thread with the hyperbole!

The big issue in the US is rising rates which are putting housing affordability to its all time limit.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119046404#Comment_119046404

might explain why to a the last man and woman , they tend to be open borders advocates

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119047856#Comment_119047856

Absolutely and utterly not an immigration thread, please read the mod note in the first post as the title instructs.

Sierra Oscar

Daft.ie rental report published tomorrow. Supply of rental properties has fallen to a record low and rental prices up 12% as a result is the gist of it.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119049300#Comment_119049300

I really cant get my head around why the housing Inflation data on the CPI website for Ireland for March is showing 7.2% for Actual rentals for housing & mortgage interest, yet rents are 12% ahead and house prices are 20% ahead. Leads me to believe that the ERSI Rental Equivalence model for calculating housing Inflation is flawed - https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/WP676.pdf have a read of it if you have time.

Main problem I see with it is that more people now than ever are entering the new rental market side as they are coming back to the city from WFH or abroad, so the weighted constant ratio for long term rental vs new rental used to validate this model to the original housing CPI is now totally off. It even says in the reports abstract - "Furthermore, we show there are considerable differences in the inflation rate if new relative to existing rents are used in the rental equivalence measures with measures based purely on existing rents biasing downwards both the rental equivalence measure and the overall consumer price index. This suggests that considerable care is required for policymakers in using rental equivalence methods in the presence of data gaps"

bluedex

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119049300#Comment_119049300

And the solution proposed by SF? Replace the 2% rent increase cap with a rent freeze, resulting in even less supply. Clueless.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119049559#Comment_119049559

While rents may be up 20% in places not everybody's rent is gone up. My daughter mo ed houses and her rent went down. My son will have to move before June and he may have to pay more.

I have increased the rent on a property I have and it's an extra 7.5% I am charging. LA tenants saw no rent increase I imagine.

The 7.2% is an average accross the whole rental market. It would mean some tenants saw substantial increases while other saw no increase on mortgage interest increases we have pointed out here regularly that the vast majority are on 3-5 year fixed rates. They will see no increase until that fixed rate term ends

Villa05

From an economic perspective its tennant new entrants that are getting hammered. This has serious implications for competitiveness and the housing sector could well be killing the golden goose its feeding from.

I would imagine that the increasing financialisation of the sector, little regard is given to this as its all about bleeding the asset, increasing its value and offloading it to the next fool before it all collapses.

One thing about SF policy is they were trying to lure long term investment funds who are attracted to stable markets that are less exposed to boom bust market policies