Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118180266#Comment_118180266

I rest my case.

MacronvFrugals

ECB warns of ‘exuberance’ in housing, junk bonds and crypto assets

The ECB said there were growing signs of overvaluation” that left many European housing markets “prone to a correction” and warned of a “deterioration in lending standards

Increased “exuberance” in housing markets, junk bonds and crypto assets has created vulnerabilities that will be exposed if higher than expected inflation leads to a sharp rise in interest rates, the European Central Bank has warned.

“Concerns particularly relate to pockets of exuberance in credit, asset and housing markets as well as higher debt levels in the corporate and public sectors,” the ECB said.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ecb-warns-of-exuberance-in-housing-junk-bonds-and-crypto-assets-1.4731202?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fecb-warns-of-exuberance-in-housing-junk-bonds-and-crypto-assets-1.4731202

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118180666#Comment_118180666

The ECB report talks about differences in property prices per county and Ireland has not received a ESRB warning Or recommendation as we already have prudential rules in this place.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118180266#Comment_118180266

Social housing is statistically more likely to experience anti-social behaviour than privately owned housing. The stats dont lie, people's "attitude" to social housing didnt materialise out of thin air - social tenants are more likely to be anti-social. Its why property values drop next to social housing, its less desirable.

Unless you have another explanation that contradicts the facts

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118180993#Comment_118180993

So now we're the good boys of Europe?!

“Concerns particularly relate to pockets of exuberance in credit, asset and housing markets as well as higher debt levels in the corporate and public sectors,” the ECB said.

Sounds about right to me in an Irish context.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118180994#Comment_118180994

That's just lazy stereotyping. There is nothing to suggest that your next door neighbour being a social tenant makes them more likely to be anti social then if you have a private owner next door.

After 23 years of going to disputes between neighbours, I have found first more hassle in private houses then social houses.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118179249#Comment_118179249

Genuinely sickening that DCC entered into a lease with such an organisation, they have absolutely no morals or scruples. Which of course makes sense given their total abdication of responsibility for the housing crisis in Dublin.

Viscount Aggro

I once shared a house with a guy, who said... anywhere west of the Dart line is rubbish.

Flinty997

Snobbery <>  lazy stereotyping. So which is it?

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118181300#Comment_118181300

So your anecdotes invalidate years of data I guess, go figure

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118181687#Comment_118181687

Years of data? Where?

Show me a link to anything that says your next door neighbour who is a social tenant is more likely to engage in anti social behaviour then your next door neighbour who is not a social tenant?

javaboy

With some people it's snobbery for sure but how do you think it feels to pay for the whole of your house out of your after tax income with either no help or some HTB that's partially absorbed by price increases anyway and then to see someone else move in next door who is paying comparatively little and taking on no risk for maintenance etc.?

I recognise the need for social housing and subsidies. It's the level of subsidy that's galling imo. Some social housing recipients are being levelled up to the housing "power" for want of a better word of people on hefty 6 figure salaries. It's hard to argue that's a fair system or that it encourages or rewards hard work.

Everyone recognises that as an adult nowadays you need a phone... and in reality a smartphone. If the govt. provided subsidised or free phones, would it be fair for them to provide iPhone 13s out of taxpayer money or simply a fairly good Android or older iPhone?

You'll see snobbery if you want to, I guess and maybe the above looks snobbish but it's the way the subsidising is so high and then just drops off a cliff rather than scaling down as incomes rise.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118181812#Comment_118181812

I work and pay for everything I have myself. So, I know how it feels having no help from anyone.

It does not, nor should it, bother me what other people pay or don't pay for their homes.

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118173169#Comment_118173169

Aren't you overlooking the fact that local authorities are buying significant amounts of properties in the second hand market, and providing them to AHB's for social housing?

Significant amounts of properties are being bought in estates and apartment developments that many would consider to be 'mature'. It's not confined to new build developments.

If you live in an estate or apartment complex in an urban area and your neighbour puts their property up for sale, then there's a very good chance your local authority is making inquiries. They have deep pockets too.

LJ12345

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118183113#Comment_118183113

and it’s also understood that authorities have a list of housing estates which they wish to buy into in order to keep their pre defined ratio of social housing and prevent ‘saturation’. There’s method to the madness.

Amadan Dubh

€1.25m for a tiny terrace in Sandymount, purchased for €720k in 2017. It looks quite nice for its size and I appreciate it's Sandymount but €1.25m is surely totally unrealistic as it looks like a terribly poor value family home but would still be targeting a family demographic.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/smart-family-home-with-workspace-on-londonbridge-road-for-1-245m-1.4729297?mode=amp

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118183816#Comment_118183816

I actually have the list. They dont call it saturation when they have over 50% though, they call it "socially satisfied".

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118181300#Comment_118181300

Im going to call that out as bullsh!t anyway.

What do you work at that of private owners would be calling you out for a disputes with other private owners?

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118181300#Comment_118181300

The councils have effectively admitted it themselves, Part V requires 10% social housing in a new estate, developers used to give this as say 5 houses in a row at the end of a street but councils arnt accepting this anymore, they want single houses dispersed throughout the estate because social housing cant be put together without it turning into a ghetto.

Honestly a lot of it is attitude, people who get something for nothing have no respect for it and they are not invested in living in that area.

Villa05

The best place that I lived in is an area considered genuine working class as in median salary and below. The issue is that in our current government sponsored demand driven/supply choked system such areas are no longer developed.

Top dollar to own your own and for social housing hence the hammered young people in the middle renting and complete lack of the required social and affordable housing.

Plus those that own there own home are vastly overpaying

The whole system is designed to rip off our children

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118180666#Comment_118180666

"Growing signs of exuberance" - 2018 wants its analysis back! The activity in housing, crypto and junk bonds has been euphoric for almost 2 years, since the pandemic restrictions began in early 2020, not just in the EU of course but also in the UK and U.S. I thought the "growth" had run out of steam in 2019, arguably it had, but the pandemic threw gasoline on the fire.

What people are not copping is that the pandemic supercharged growth isn't far off two years now, which is almost leading to an expectation that this is a form of new normal - make no mistake, what has happened the last 2 years is not normal or sustainable, with big tech, crypto and housing is mightily exposed to a correction. You have to look at what the rich guys are doing and what it looks like is that they are unloading shares and companies are undertaking buybacks rather than investing; essentially starting to get out. Specifically, I am referring to the likes of Elon Musk and his brother dumping shares of Tesla; Michael Burry (infamous housing market shorter pre-2008) has already moved out of big tech stocks and into cash; Zuckerberg has sold billions worth of Facebook shares in the last 12 months; Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway; Google's founders have sold hundreds of millions worth of shares this year for the first time since 2017; and closer to home Glenveagh homebuilders recently announcing a share buyback rather than seeking to invest the cash in the company.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118184335#Comment_118184335

Think about it

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185012#Comment_118185012

This is valid warning. And it's really insane what's going on with Tech market. And yes the current growth is not sustainable, it's interesting and worrying to see what's going to happen in coming years. I think it's very likely there will be some significant corrections/falls in Techs in coming couple of years, but not much in Residential properties.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118184495#Comment_118184495

It's better for everybody to have mixed housing. Firstly it stops the discrimination towards social tenants. Mixed housing with tenants of various social backgrounds and incomes has been shown to be the best in other countries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185169#Comment_118185169

Professional assassin?

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118180666#Comment_118180666

Well if you lot hadn't pushed interest rates below zero, People who want or need yield might have more and safer choices. Somebody please buy them a mirror, it will make it a lot easier and quicker for them to find the causes of problems in the economy.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118184335#Comment_118184335

Those blue lights you see flashing in your rear view mirror, may soon provide the answer you seek.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118180993#Comment_118180993

This ignores the whale activity in the market and places too much emphasis on what the individual buyer is up to - a reason I feel the regulators dropped the ball and are already looking at the empty stable after the horse has bolted. The problem with our housing bubble is that it has been inflated by the rental market; the yields available for investors in the PRS has meant that the home buyer market has also been lifted. John and Jane Doe taking on a mortgage 3.5/4.5 times their combined earnings are not "overleveraged" as they would've been in the build up to 2008, but they make up a small part of the activity in the market.

I posted before that;

"there's only in the region of 30-40k mortgages drawn down each year in Ireland the past 6 years since the mortgage limits were introduced (this was the equivalent of the mortgages drawn down in 2003 and 2004 alone) so it is a drop in the ocean as far as the property market is concerned. A well insulated and protected ocean, but only a small proportion of the market where the LTI/LTV limits are actually relevant."

I mean, it's good to know that individual buyers aren't going to be as overleveraged as before but who knows exactly what the impact will be in the event of a correction in the bubble areas (i.e. rental market) - a good guess would be the State with its long-term leases at 85/90% of bubble rents.

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185185#Comment_118185185

That's not reality though, look at any Irish city, they all have the swanky parts where houses prices are at least twice that in the less nice parts, people who can are more than happy to pay over the odds to live surrounded by their peers but the government and councils have so spectacularly failed to provide social housing estates they are buying up €500k houses at the taxpayers expense and competing with private buyers.

iColdFusion

Anyone know why the old council scheme of providing affordable sites to people doesn't seem to be making a comeback?

Would have thought them buying up a field, re-zoning it, sticking in a road and utilities then selling sites at cost price to people able to get a mortgage to build would have been a key part of Housing for All and would be a great fudge come election time as they can say they have provided 2000 sites to people when they could have only built 200 houses themselves in that time. Also has some green merits as they could be encouraging people to build in small towns rather than out in the countryside, most towns have little scope to get planning as the development boundaries are so restricted and any zoned land is normally already owned by the local rich lad who is buddies with the local planner.