Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Marius34

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117645558#Comment_117645558

Would not be sure about the impact on interest rates. ECB would not be the first bank to increase rates. FED and in some other countries this has been done already few years ago, don't think institution investors slowed down.

Timing belt

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117645722#Comment_117645722

The FED has never had negative rates and even recently when the money market rates looked to be turning negative they intervened by paying 0.05% for Reverse Repos to provide a floor. The European funds (Pension funds etc) that are being charged negative rates by the banks are parking their cash in other assets as property to avoid paying negative rates where they can. If rates rose even a small bit and they were no longer charged negative rates by the banks then they could leave cash there which would take pressure of the property market.

PommieBast

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117645613#Comment_117645613

I'm hearing more and more about non-Irish who went home and worked remotely not wanting to come back. Typical story is being unenthusiastic about having to go back to Dublin's dysfunctional accomodation market, and then when they see the chaos such as Ireland's DCC rollout they decide returning is not worth the hassle.

Marius34

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117645817#Comment_117645817

But still they were very close to 0% before the rise in 2016/2017. I have not seen that in countries with higher interest rates Funds has much of it's assets holding into a Cash. Not sure why there is expectation that there will be any significant asset movement into the cash.

L1011

Revolution 1917 - do not post in this thread again. Ever.

Do not reply to this post.

flintash

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117644457#Comment_117644457

well well well, funny enough you mention white collar workers. i wont say which multinational here in Cork realized that these happy bee workers working from home for over a year now, can continue to work from home , as long as the home is in Poland.

so here we go, joys of working from home, those lads getting redundancy at the end of it. will see how long it takes other companys to realize that WFH means WorkingFromHungary or Poland. Dont forget the 15% corporation tax drum beaten loudly recently.. But myself, i dont see a crash coming anytime time soon.Good luck hunting for your forever home

yagan

If we can't talk about negative equity then what's the point discussing property?

L1011

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117648419#Comment_117648419

A specific user has been thread-banned after multiple final warnings for posting continually off-topic, rambling, incoherent content. It is not a general ban applying to anything else. But you absolutely should know better than to discuss moderation on thread.

Do not reply to this post. This applies to everyone. Do not discuss this post. Do not hint at this post. Remember the basic rules of the site you're on for once.

MacronvFrugals

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117642756#Comment_117642756

That's mostly landlords who are allergic to paying tax, HAP is the floor this is blindly obvious.

Amadan Dubh

The government is now delaying publishing their new housing plan until the autumn but assure us it is being worked on right through August. Another nail in the coffin of FF and FG, not treating the housing crisis as an emergency.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/delay-to-government-housing-plan-seen-as-setback-1.4627800

Amadan Dubh

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639308#Comment_117639308

Someone wrote in by way of reply to Des Gilroy, to argue against the points made in support of having small landlords in the market - probably fair enough points that less landlords does not necessarily mean less supply as those landlords either sell to other landlords or else to individual buyers. In addition, the points about it being easier to regulate a few bigger players than a lot of small fish. These letters are public I think so it should be okay to copy and paste them.

Sir, – I have no evidence beyond anecdotal to question the survey results reported by the Residential Tenancies Board and cited by Des Gilroy in these pages (Letters, July 20th). I do have reason, however, to question Mr Gilroy’s conclusions therefrom.

Mr Gilroy says it is a bad thing that small landlords are “being forced out” of the residential tenancy market, because this will lower the supply of residential properties, particularly those at affordable rents. This is an argument one often hears against State interventions in the rental market.

What matters is not the supply of landlords, but the supply of housing. When a small landlord “leaves the market”, they do not tear down the houses they thus far have rented out – they sell them, either to an owner-occupier or to another landlord. Thus, they are extremely well-compensated for “leaving” the rental market.

Likewise, it seems unlikely that a landlord with fewer than five properties is responsible for the construction of any new housing supply. More likely, these are investors competing with would-be owner occupiers for existing housing stock, or refusing to sell on property they have inherited or purchased for themselves in circumstances that no longer suit them to live in the property (the so-called “accidental landlord”). It is not clear that more people getting “in on the act” of extracting rents from our broken market increases housing supply. If anything, it probably makes it harder to regulate the rental market, because there is a larger constituency of actors to deal with.

As for whether a small landlord is more likely to accept a lower return on their investment than a corporate landlord, this might be true – or the economies of scale and distribution of risk associated with large rental portfolios might militate the other way. If there is evidence that smaller landlords systematically charge lower rents (controlling for factors like size, quality and location of the property), that would be very welcome, and Mr Gilroy should present it.

But the mere fact that 72 per cent of rental properties are currently owned by landlords with fewer than five properties does not mean that if those landlords did not exist, neither would the houses. Given the extraordinary demand for housing, it is more likely they would be owner-occupied, or owned by a larger landlord.

It is by no means obvious that in such circumstances they would be less expensive to rent. There might be other reasons to dislike large landlords (related to the concentration of power and wealth in society), but these are not relied on by Mr Gilroy.

Mr Gilroy is correct that the country faces a supply problem (although given the number of vacant housing units, this might be overstated). But that is a shortage of housing, not of landlords. If the small landlords whose interests he champions are going to build more housing and charge lower rents, then by all means we should encourage them to do so. But more “suppliers” does not necessarily equal more “supply” unless those small landlords are going to build, or finance the building of, housing that would not otherwise exist.

There might be more effective ways for the State to secure more supply at lower rents, like rent control and large-scale public housing development. These interventions may well make it less attractive to be a small (and indeed large) landlord – but much better to be a tenant. – Yours, etc,

ALAN EUSTACE,

Marino.

Flinty997

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117648610#Comment_117648610

On the one hand the claim is HAP is a cash cow for landlords. The other claim is Landlords don't want the cash cow because not paying tax is better, when HAP has much higher tax reliefs. You'll have to make your mind up is HAP golden egg or a poisoned chalice.

The only downside for small landlords leaving the market and being replaced by large landlords and companies. Is the latter have tended to avoid the affordable end of the market and focus where the profits are higher. So further shrinking the supply of "affordable" housing.

The issue is not HAP. It's a symptom. The issue is supply and demand. It's also supply and demand in social and affordable housing. If the supply is mostly at the top end, that hurts supply at the lower end.

At the same time we are still growing our population.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/376895/population-growth-in-ireland/

Flinty997

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117649081#Comment_117649081

The rental market has pretty much got everything is has asked for the last couple of decades. Including institutional landlords replacing smaller landlords. There's no going back now. Be interesting to see how it all works out.

Flinty997

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117648750#Comment_117648750

Well there's the source of the problem.

JimmyVik

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117649405#Comment_117649405

I wonder how the REITS will get supplying houses in rural areas.

I think they probably arent interested in anything other than apartments and housing estates in large towns.

So anyoone wanting to rent in a rural area might be out of luck once legislation finally finishes off its job and forces out the last of the small landlords.

Amadan Dubh

Stunning, literally the dream home. Though I wonder about coastal erosion.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-pebble-beach-upper-curragh-ardmore-co-waterford/3416308?utm_source=TheJournal&utm_medium=Property&utm_campaign=Property%21-%21Magazine%21-%21Jul%204

Separately, Apartment 56, The Hibernian, Gasworks, Dublin 4. PPR price in 2013 of €245000, asking price now of €485000. Some mark-up for a tiny, pokey 2-bed.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/apartment-apartment-56-the-hibernian-the-gasworks-dublin-4/3462730?utm_source=TheJournal&utm_medium=Property&utm_campaign=Property%21-%21Magazine%21-%21Jul%204

Flinty997

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117650444#Comment_117650444

Well I don't think all small landlords will leave.

Rural areas are generally much cheaper, so less of an issue I would hope.

timmyntc

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117651099#Comment_117651099

From experience, most rural areas are really struggling with lack of rental properties.

Most have sold up to owner-occupiers, or for use as holiday homes/airbnbs. Nothing has been built in the last 10 years in most of "rural Ireland" - so aside from few areas with no amenities or shops (actually rural), populations are mostly stagnant or growing, yet no new properties have come available

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117650731#Comment_117650731

So you are comparing the prices of a property sold at the low point of the last recession, and today, I doubt many are surprised that there is a significant differences in prices.

growleaves

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117643447#Comment_117643447

Can you expand on this a little?

What is impractical about the apartments in Grand Canal Dock? By sterile do you mean the design?

What is an example of a good new apartment build in Dublin city in your estimation?

Sorry to quiz you. I'd appreciate you (and others) giving your opinions if you want to.

MacronvFrugals

My friend has to leave his rented apartment in The Cubes Beacon South Quarter Sandyford, the landlord wants to sell up because he's "afraid of a crash"

Amadan Dubh

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117651175#Comment_117651175

Sure, I was actually casually looking at apartments for rent in Dublin this morning, just to see what is out there and what prices they are asking.

https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-fitzwilliam-quay-apartments-ringsend-dublin-4/3473136

https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-windmill-lane-apartments-dublin-2/3472369

https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-the-clayton-the-gasworks-dublin-4/3465240

There's 3 to make my point, around €1.9-2.3k pm each with the sterile, pokey features being the following;

Literally the shape of a shoe box; little natural light; cramped kitchen with little free counter space; (likely) no storage room; living room/dining table space impractical for a small family let alone even hosting a dinner for family/friends.

The new builds that I would be talking about are of course "new" so built to an exceptionally high standard with modern fixtures fitting, plumbing, insulation, storage and even apartment block amenities. My two points are (1) I would completely disagree that they are "sterile" objectively and (2) relative to the older apartments around the Docks (which is probably one of the most densely packed collection of apartment blocks in the City) which I feel are just very poor apartments generally (unless you were maybe mid-20s, just starting a job and sharing with a friend).

https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-2-bedroom-apartment-mount-argus-apartments-mount-argus-road-harolds-cross-dublin-6w/2534220

https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-2-bed-knockrabo-mount-anville-road-goatstown-dublin-14/2621606

Amadan Dubh

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117651155#Comment_117651155

Is there a good reason for the massive price increase? The argument I would make to explain the sensational increase in price is the significant increase in immigration since then, government measures to inflate the rental market, muted supply and covid-restrictions-induced frenzied/desperation buying. The ad makes no mention of renovation being made to the apartment and I can't see a significant enough increase in mortgage lending limits or salaries to pay the higher price.

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117651436#Comment_117651436

Yes there is, in 2013 property was at its lowest, the recession was at its nadir in 2012, few people were buying, there was an excess of properties for sale. Today there is a dearth of properties for sale, more people wanting to buy etc. This apartment is close to the city centre, close to MNs which are big employers which weren't there in 2013, certainly not in their current form. So I am wondering, why is the price increase on a property between 2013 and 2021 a surprise to you.

spalpeen

Any thoughts on prospects of portmarnock as an area to buy in?

mcsean2163

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117651959#Comment_117651959

Friend lives there, it's amazing. The southside without the snobbery.

Just a couple of things.

Last population estimate was in April 2020

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2020/

Last census was 2016.

There seems to be an abundance of apartments for rent. This thread and Sunday business post have highlighted the many empty apartments complexes around Dublin with significant supply being released soon e.g. Chapelizod.

https://planning.agileapplications.ie/dublincity/application-details/136906

71 apartments just down the road from empty Clancy quay.

I would question that there is a housing shortage at all in Dublin but rather a shortage of houses where southsiders want them. Case in point, crazyhouseprice guy. Why doesn't he shut up and just buy a house in ballyfermot? One of the last times I was in the playground there, I was talking to a nuclear physicist who was staying with her daughter. Lots of nice people.

The problem is that southsiders expect to live in blackrock beside mammy and daddy and are upset when they can't afford it.

Finally, the idea that you only make a loss on a house when you sell is daft unless you are a cash buyer and even then... Our neighbour paid nearly twice what we paid for our house. In fairness, they were on a tracker versus the horrid variable rate we pay but still they are likely paying significantly higher mortgage payments every month which affects what they can do in life.

Bass Reeves

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117641415#Comment_117641415

In other words you overpaid . Very few houses are still below crash prices most are 10-30% above it

tobsey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117651436#Comment_117651436

The 2013 price was unnatural. It was below the cost price, never mind the reasonably market price in stable conditions. Once demand caught up on supply it was always likely it would be worth far more.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117654692#Comment_117654692

I can't agree with that for the reason being that house price increases are not correlated to a rebound in earnings or an increase in mortgage lending. These price levels (and perhaps those slightly higher, achieved in 2015 - for me 2015 rents and prices are a good balance when measured against salaries) were a correction from the artificial prices of the 00s, with the increases since then again being inflated due to nothing which we can claim is solid or sustainable (i.e. QE, constant net immigration at levels which services and infrastructure cannot keep up with, government acting as a whale in the market).

What I mean by not sustainable is that we are seeing a dramatic shift in the younger generations (under 35s in particular) seeking out alternatives to the mainstream political parties (i.e. SF and People Before Profit ("Let's ban all corporates from owning property") as they feel they are not being sufficiently catered for in the current system which is directly linked to the housing crisis. But for the actions of the State and QE, house prices should not be much higher than what they were in 2013-2015, which are more "natural".

An IT article this morning from their business correspondent related to the government decision to delay publishing their political life saving Housing For All strategy, which we know is going to be backed by billions upon billions of borrowing. The article sets out what is often lacking in the reports on how to fix the housing crisis; mixed with increased supply, house prices must fall.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cliff-taylor-has-government-just-got-the-jitters-about-its-big-housing-plan-1.4628647

The Government...has one shot at this one.

Just throwing money at the problem, in other words, won’t fix it.

It suggests that reducing private sector investment on non-housing construction projects is one way to free capacity. This could happen naturally if office demand slumps post Covid-19 – but the document even suggests that tax measures could be needed to discourage commercial building and direct resources to housebulding. The State trying to engineer a slump in commercial building would be some change after years of incentives to development.

If the older generation of policymakers is going to pioneer a new way of living for younger people, then there is a lot of explaining – and more importantly listening – to be done. We haven’t even started this discussion yet. After all, this is those living in the suburbs with gardens and mortgages paid trying to explain to younger people that they can only aspire to something smaller.

And the younger generation can legitimately ask whether those of us who own properties are happy to see prices fall to make them more affordable for them. Because, in the long term, if any housing plan is to work, homes will have to cost less.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117654797#Comment_117654797

You mention increase in wages/mortgage lending, but neglected to consider another important driver in the property market, cash/savings. A significant proportion of sales in the last five yrs were completed without the need for finance and we’re not contingent on income. And I am not talking about investment funds, more about Irish property buyers with cash on deposit.

So let’s recap on the the reasons why a property may have risen in price since 2013, the list is not exhaustive.

• In 2013 the country was less than a yr after the low point of the last recession, property prices were at the bottom of a downward cycle that began in 2008.

• There was unemployment, banks were not lending, confidence in jobs/economy/property market was low. There was a surplus of houses, but people did not want to buy, so they saved.

• Skip forward to 2020, full employment, large savings on deposit, CB rules mean credit is curtailed to ensure responsible lending, but buyers are sitting on large cash deposits.

• Investors have entered the market buying huge swathes of developments, there is now a dearth of properties to buy, record low levels of listings on daft, but with rents so high, people see buying as a better alternative.

• Add in the pandemic, those most affected employment wise are the low paid who would not necessarily be the buyers interested in that apartment. Employees on MNCs etc are now looking for a place to live/work from, close to the action in Dublin, possibly renting a room out for a tidy sum.

• Building has been stifled by bureaucracy, lack of investment, cost of building, pandemic etc, so it will be yrs before supply catches up to demand. In a typical market, production ramps up to meet demand as producers strive to earn profits, but that does not happen in the property market here, so there is a funnelling effect, lots of buyers condensed into bidding on a few properties.

You say the prices are not sustainable, high prices rarely are, hence why history has shown that has always been cycles of highs and lows in the property market.

All these factors contribute to a price increase from the lows of 2013 to the highs of 2021, you have been around long enough, God knows you link enough long articles/ad listings, to surely have a grasp on why prices rose to the level they are at today.