Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118602773#Comment_118602773

Yes that is correct but the average maturity of the debt is 10/11 years.

Pussyhands

Just seeing that Ciaran guy from "crazy house prices" on prime time.

He's a fool.

He had a post up this week saying a house went X above the asking price. Turns out the "asking price" was a guide price and the house was sold at auction. What a clown.

wassie

Had a look at his site there and Instagram. He's got decent following now and is obviously trying to monetise it all. Complete spoofer.

wassie

[Deleted - duplicate post]

SmokyMo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118603098#Comment_118603098

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118603167#Comment_118603167

I think he is doing a great job. We have enough negative nancys who do f'ck all. At least he is bringing awareness to the issue. He a teacher so let him make few bob while he at it.

AdamD

He seems to have zero understanding of asking prices anyway, consistently seems mindblown when houses get sold for more than asking.

Economics101

From to-day's Indo. What an idiotic headline (I didn't read the text after that):

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/rents-soar-as-cuckoo-funds-massively-outbid-families-for-new-homes-41328342.html

The headline implies that "cuckoo funds" (great piece of name-calling) are effectively paying way over the odds for property. Are they that stupid?

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604259#Comment_118604259

It implies they are buying new, high end, and yes also outbidding would be owner-occupiers.

The article also spells out why - because of rental yields, the cuckoo funds' valuation of the property is higher than what a family would ever pay.

Based on annual rent received/property purchase price - they set their purchase price based on market rents as they target a certain level of return. If interest rates rose, this would be much less viable for them.

Villa05

Ironic Quote of the century

Tom Parlon 08 February 2022. The hard shoulder on Newstalk

There is little point in drawing demand when the supply chain is not sufficiently developed to satisfy that demand.

The irony from a man that has made a career out of lobbying for handouts to drive up the price of new build houses

Tom was speaking about the new Seai grants to retrofit housing. One suspects that this may pull demand away from new builds towards empty doer uppers. The construction industry federation have been rattled which is a good sign.

Kudos to the green party, you may have stolen Sinn Feins thunder

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604259#Comment_118604259

If that term is referring to REITs, then no, they are not stupid, because they don't pay any tax whatsoever - not on income or CGT on disposal. The idiots are the voters who aren't marching in the streets and writing to their TD's, asking why the government treats mostly foreign REITs so generously - the beneficiaries of which are mostly wealthy foreigners - while treating local Irish landlords so abominably and comparitively unfairly with policies deliberately intended to drive them out of the market - and why are they letting FTBs be completely screwed over by large corporations?

I'll be voting Sin Fein, that's for sure.

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604224#Comment_118604224

He's a spoofer in that he has transitioned to influencer type rubbish on social media trying to flog things that are freely available on the net as 'exclusive content'. His instagram site has click-bait style nonsense such as this

Heading:

How to get a mortgage exemption.

The details:

Lenders can give out a certain number of exemptions/exceptions

There are 2 types:

- more than 3.5x your income

- less than 10/20% deposit required

On the requirement to be sale-agreed before getting an exemption; your broker will have a very good idea if you'll get the exemption before you go sale-agreed. So it's not as risky as it sounds.

Did you manage to get an exemption? Let me know in the comments!

I got some of this info from Bonkers.ie and other bits from [Mortage Broker referral] who also has an excellent post all about mortgage exemptions.

Then comes the usual "join my patreon" and send me a few quid and I'll give you exclusive free stuff like a PDF.

What was once an interesting site is now all about site traffic, affiliate links and subscriptions.

And I think everyone who has an interest in the property market is fully aware of the issue.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118602825#Comment_118602825

and how much more debt will we have added in that time? What it suggests is that there will come a point in time in the next decade when 5Billion+ will be snapped up on our annual spend for interest and god knows what that rate will be if 2% is predicted in the next 3 - 5 years it could be double that meaning 10 billion out of our spend is gone on servicing the debt. If I was in government I would be looking at ways to stop borrowing and reducing the debt so when rollover time comes that 5 to 10 billion is a lot less. Other wise things welfare , ps pensions , OAP and capital expenditure will have take a hit.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118603098#Comment_118603098

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118603167#Comment_118603167

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604256#Comment_118604256

I have made reference to him more than once in this thread, an absolute chancer, using populism to peddle his wares. Basically a grab for freebies and some patreon subs, chancer of the highest order (like the majority on instagram to be fair)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118590177#Comment_118590177

Ballinrobe and other small towns are waiting for the Government to open the purse and grant more tax relief through a new Town Renewal Scheme.

You have owners of derelict property waiting. They will invest nothing. Once TRS is available then the owners who neglected their properties will put them on the market and if they sell enjoy a windfall as the tax benefit will be baked in to the asking price..

The Councils don't want to CPO the properties as the process is too difficult and expensive. They're not even maintaining the derelict site registers. I was in communication with a Co. Co. Environment Department Official last week and they weren't maintaining the list. They just don't want to know.

The effect of TRS last time around was that next to nothing got re-developed as the owners put the prices of their derelict property so high that nobody could afford to buy and improve the property. I saw only a handful of properties being brought back in to use as a result of TRS and the rest remained idle to this day and time hasn't been kind to those derelicts.

A real fear of losing the property is needed to regenerate villages in rural Ireland.

There are 199 derelict properties in Ballinrobe but practically nothing for sale or rent as all the property owners are awaiting their windfall of TRS. All the while the town crumbles in to ruins. Visit it in Google Streetview if you don't believe me.

I'm interested in a few derelict properties which need renovation in a village local to where I come from. They won't come on to the market.

Here in Germany property gets CPO'd and sold. You can see forced auction properties everywhere (Zwangsversteigerungen) in all the property websites and the result is that although the villages are hollowed out of retail activity due to out of town retail developments and Aldi/Lidl oligopoly the towns themselves are well maintained and habitable with very few derelicts to be seen.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604224#Comment_118604224

HE is not doing anything only preaching to the choir. He's also looking for donations, absolute chancer...when it's people who are sending him the content!

All it is is a circlejerk of people who can't buy with the same comments every time.

And really, it's not honest if he's calling a guide price for an auction as an asking price...just shows he hasn't got a clue what he's on about.

This coming from someone who is renting and is priced out of the market.

And by the way, who on instagram/twitter need to be made aware?

enricoh

The local paper headlines with there isn't a single property to rent in Drogheda last week. A local auctioneer had 5 tenancies ending that week and only 1 of the landlords wanted new tenants. Time for some more populist anti landlord legislation to get rid of the stubborn few!

https://mobile.twitter.com/droghedaleader/status/1491051262892441601?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604331#Comment_118604331

You should watch the housing debate that was on the other night. O'Broin (SF housing spokesperson) was not good. All fur coat and no knickers.

When pressed, his solution to stopping the institutional investors was he'd give the councils the money to outbid them. Just take a moment and think about that.

Was also pressed on the SF 40k houses a year target and was unable to offer any substance on how this would possibly be achieved.

It is abundantly clear that there is no easy solution here, and people who believe the fix is lurking behind the next election is in for a very rude awakening.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604731#Comment_118604731

He was incredibly unimpressive given it was a debate he would have had ample time to prepare for, the only silver lining for him is that the demographic he targets most likely wont have seen it.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604731#Comment_118604731

In fairness he was asked what to do with the existing stock of investment fund owned property in the pipeline

Not much we can do about the bull that has escaped. Its more about the direction of the future, not that that was probed in detail either.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604731#Comment_118604731

I don't give a toss whether Sin Fein fix things or not, I'm planning to emigrate. I'm just going to use my vote to stir the pot and stick it to the incumbents and the other mob - and that goes 100 times for the dipsh​it greens.

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604378#Comment_118604378

Jeez alot of hate for someone taking loads of time out of his life to raise the massive issue of housing affordability, you don't want to join his patreon or whatever fair enough but he's done more to highlight the issues people are having that any of the posters or threads on here ever will.

It's easy for people in the know to say "oh hes just pointing out the obvious" but a lot of people literally have no idea where to start with buying a house and no friends or family to help them out with advice.

Now I base this level of understanding on my own personal hatred for those idiots on youtube who make a video of them watching someone else's youtube video and commenting on it which boils my blood 😄

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604924#Comment_118604924

You're going to vote Sinn Fein and then leave the country? So just to piss everyone that has to live with them in government off, is it? Seems extremely unfair thing to do.

If you're leaving then don't vote, voting is for people to be represented by their TD in government.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605163#Comment_118605163

Considering all the various business interests milking it and lobbying to squeeze every last cent out of buyers and taxpayers, it does seem odd that this person is getting so much ire.

At least he pays tax

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605201#Comment_118605201

Didn't see many people complaining when there were planes full of people coming back solely to vote in the abortion ref.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605201#Comment_118605201

I've got an idea - you vote for whomever you want and I'll do likewise. I genuinely think it will be for the good of the country as the pot desperately needs stirring as the two main parties are so out of touch it's terrifying. Their attitude to REITS, social housing, public sector pay increases, carbon taxes and other eco stupidities, are genuinely terrifying.

The worst case scenario is a third political party will prove to be as attrocious as the other two, with at least that slight frisson of the unknown that they might actually surprise, and pull a rabbit out of the hat. The other two are a known quantity - the less said about them, the better.

To make an omelette, first you have to break a few eggs.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605227#Comment_118605227

That was a referendum. A matter of changing the constitution. Forever. People return home you know.

Anyway, pretty sure that was widely over stated.

A dail vote is a vote for who you wish to represent you in government. For the length of government.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605259#Comment_118605259

Or they might well be a hell of a lot worse.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605281#Comment_118605281

He has the right to vote for as long as he is still resident here - whether you will be around to live with the consequences is irrelevant.

Otherwise where do you draw the line? Should old people likely to die not be allowed vote? Should younger people's votes be weighed more highly than the elderly based on life expectancy? etc etc

Anyways its irrelevant to the property market at large - what is relevant is that SF may shake up the market somewhat, which is more than can be said for the past 10 years of FG/FF. The housing crisis was first identified what, 5 years ago? And in that time they have made things progressively worse. At least SF are an unknown

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605271#Comment_118605271

Sure the guy emigrating might return too? And TDs impact governments which impact long term.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605281#Comment_118605281

Ah, the old communists under the bed.

So what? The real government are the public sector, who will soon 'yes minister' them into line. As I said, the pot needs stirring for the long term good, even if that means short term pain, so be it.

Current national debt is €150,000 per income tax payer. The current clowns have announced €8 Billion in house rennovation grants and public sector pay increases and unbelievably stupid plans for grid scale solar energy generation - which is not commercially viable and can only exist on generous tax payer funded subsidies. All on the back of the Covid debt overhang.

I'ts like looking out to sea and seeing a 40m high tidal wave approaching, that spans the horizon. I only hope I can get to high ground in time, before it breaks.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605323#Comment_118605323

Yep, he is entitled to vote if he is entitled to vote.

It's the way he worded his post, that he will be voting and leaving. Like a **** you to everyone, if you like.

But yes, absolutely if he is entitled to vote, he is.

cnocbui

I am an Irish citizen, though I do have dual nationality. My mother was pretty much born in Jameson's distillery, in Smithfield.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605406#Comment_118605406

Just to make it clear, I was not suggesting that you are not eligible to vote.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605504#Comment_118605504

I know people like to take the piss out of these but I reckon there is actually a market for these tiny properties, although the price here is obviously very high it's mostly due to location.

This is one of those things where if that was left empty or derelict, people would be moaning about how it's a disgrace there's derelict property during a housing crisis. On the other hand, if someone does it up and tries to sell it, it's a disgrace that such properties are even available.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605163#Comment_118605163

I hate spoofers and he is a spoofer, if he wasnt trying to monetise it i wouldnt really care but its a cash grab so any semblance of altruism is gone out of it.

And what has he highlighted that everyone doesnt know already? oh look here is a house that says its in terenure but it isnt, state of the EA, its not like that stuff has not literally gone on for decades and anyone buying a house knows where it is themselves.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605563#Comment_118605563

a shoebox in clontarf is still a shoebox

in the context of the market you could look at it and go, "i can kind of see how they justify that price", but if you take a step back you realise the whole market is bonkers. Half a million euro for something not much bigger than a studio apartment.

And its not a belfast sink!

Economics101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604306#Comment_118604306

It may be, as you say that Investment funds place a higher value on a property than a FTB would ever be able to pay. But the amount they would be willing to pay should be just enough to out-compete the FTBs. The value to the funds is higher because of tax breaks, etc, but that is an upper limit on what they would be willing to pay: if they actually pay that much then they are transferring economic rents to the sellers (builders?).

jj880

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605504#Comment_118605504

The hack of her smiling and shimmying between the mirror and the end of that double bed 😂😂.

https://youtu.be/MHXYpCc_YFw

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605477#Comment_118605477

"if he is entitled to vote" was inferring what, then? I'm not in the least bit upset, to set the record straight.

Economics101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118604331#Comment_118604331

Foreign investment in Irish property has a beneficial aspect. The post 2008 crash showed how risky and ruinous property investment can be. Off-loading some of that risk onto "wealthy foreigners" sounds OK in some respects. Don't blame the foreigners, who have after all financed a lot of construction. Maybe you can blame politicians who seem fatally attracted to over-generous tax-breaks as a policy instrument.

As for Sinn Fein, if they turn out to be a classical left-wing high-tax party, then they will have to introduce the mother of all tax breaks if investment in Ireland is not to be scared off. Be careful what you wish for.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605504#Comment_118605504

I know it's supposedly 'location location', but that's more than the sale agreed and REA valuation of the holliday home I am trying to sell in Connemara, which is in such another league it's not even funny.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605713#Comment_118605713

Same as anyone, if they are entitled to vote they are entitled to vote.

I also never said anything about you being upset.

GoldFour4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605163#Comment_118605163

He seems to be a one trick pony in terms of solutions. He's constantly posting about a vacant property levy as if that would be the main solution to the property crisis.

His "highlighting" is honestly imo, the equivalent of other twitter pages like "State of LinkedIn". His most frequent content is highlighting estate agents being a cheeky in terms of locations of properties - i.e. looking for cheap likes. His "handy guides" are just information which is very available online. I feel very sorry for people who actually think he's great for pulling all this together. They would get far more detailed and tailored to their case information if they went to a broker or met with an advisor in a bank.

He also had the suggestion that home owners should choose first time buyers with smaller affordability vs 2nd time buyers and investors - as if anybody should care about anything else rather than getting the most they can for their home when selling. I am sure there are tons of poor sellers who have been inundated with begging letters asking for them to accept a much smaller price because of this nonsense.

J_1980

https://offr.io/property/65-albert-road-lower-glenageary-dublin-ireland/2864

nice house currently bid up 30% above ask

Just shows that “asking prices” don’t mean much

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118606406#Comment_118606406

very nice house and expensively done, location is great but i genuinely wouldnt want to be on albert road, very busy road, That price is MENTAL.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118606533#Comment_118606533

There was a much finer prospect on the road (I think discussed on this thread) that sold for c.€1m back in early 2020 (asking €795k). Much bigger site (number 65 have sold off their back garden as a mews), west facing instead of east facing, semi D instead of mid terrace, set further back off the road with more parking space and privacy...it probably needed about €600k of work but would likely clear €2.5m now based off that one. Wish we'd pulled the trigger!

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118606637#Comment_118606637

yes i remember, 65 does have access to the rear via a lane beside the house next to them which negates some of the downside of mid terrace but east facing garden is a bit of a deal breaker especially at 2m! Was the back garden sold off prior to this sellers purchase in 2017 do you know?

DataDude

Doesn’t look like it. Some profit for whoever bought that!

https://m.independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/shedload-of-possibilities-at-site-of-the-civil-war-battle-34668873.html

Villa05

The Dail is hilarious

You can't accuse a person of being a liar, please substitute with wilfully mis leading the house

And they wonder why the public think one rule for them, while different rules apply to all others

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118605565#Comment_118605565

Its a cash grab and his customer are primarily FTBs who are desparate to get buy a house in a completely dysfunctional market and are looking a 'solution' .....ah but sure he's just a mere 'teacher'.....