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Scottish independence

  • 10-05-2021 6:30pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,843 ✭✭✭ Sunny Disposition


    Is it just a matter of time? They had a referendum, but it still hasn’t gone away as an issue. For more than 20 years the drift away from the Union seems to have continued, despite the huge uncertainty that’d follow an independence vote.
    What do those here who know a bit about Scotland think will happen? Could a second referendum pass? Can any government create more solidarity between Scotland and England/Wales?
    Also, please don’t put up posts linking the Scottish situation to NI!


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 65,187 ✭✭✭✭ Overheal


    Is someone lined up for the Sons of Scotland speech? Mel is canceled


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,848 ✭✭✭ Aristotle


    They had a referendum, but it still hasn’t gone away as an issue.

    As it shouldn't. I personally think they made the right decision (economically at least) not to vote for independence before.

    However, with Brexit, I think independence now has more benefits than drawbacks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭ Peterteanh


    If it's run again I think the independence movement will lose again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,105 ✭✭✭ EmmetSpiceland


    Time to forum a Celtic United Kingdom?

    Build that bridge from Northern Ireland to Scotland and leave Wales and England to their own “devices”, and chlorinated chicken.

    He/him/his

    “When you're used to privilege, equality feels like oppression”.

    #bekind



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,660 ✭✭✭✭ Timberrrrrrrr


    Time to forum a Celtic United Kingdom?

    Build that bridge from Northern Ireland to Scotland and leave Wales and England to their own “devices”, and chlorinated chicken.

    Who pays for that?

    Also, Chlorinated chicken? :rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,673 ✭✭✭ jam_mac_jam


    Time to forum a Celtic United Kingdom?

    Build that bridge from Northern Ireland to Scotland and leave Wales and England to their own “devices”, and chlorinated chicken.

    No thanks. We have had enough problems from Scotland already.

    Let's leave them to their ****show.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,105 ✭✭✭ EmmetSpiceland


    Who pays for that?

    Scottish oil/gas money or the EU.
    Also, Chlorinated chicken? :rolleyes:

    The Brexit of champions.

    He/him/his

    “When you're used to privilege, equality feels like oppression”.

    #bekind



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,660 ✭✭✭✭ Timberrrrrrrr


    Scottish oil/gas money or the EU.



    The Brexit of champions.

    The best of luck to you :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,105 ✭✭✭ EmmetSpiceland


    The best of luck to you :pac:

    Thank you :D

    He/him/his

    “When you're used to privilege, equality feels like oppression”.

    #bekind



  • Registered Users Posts: 512 ✭✭✭ Joe Exotic


    Peterteanh wrote: »
    If it's run again I think the independence movement will lose again.

    Its a strange one alright, the last time No won by 11% (from google search)
    The "No" side won with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the January 1910

    You would have to think that the yes(Leave) side hasnt lost any of the vote, so the question is:
    1. Will the turnout be as high
    2. Who will a change in turnout benifit
    3. Can the No side maintain votes post brexit

    I think that the yes side have a very good chance. The last vote was in 2014, by the time a new vote is run (assuming one is at all) the demographic changes alone will likley suit the Leave side. Younger voters entering the list and older voters leaving it. Typiclaly the younger voters are pro EU.

    In addition unless the current situation changes the north of england an Scotland will suffer most from brexit and the Government may not be able to do much to stimulate those economies give the Covid bills are piling up


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,073 ✭✭✭ Penfailed


    Joe Exotic wrote: »
    Its a strange one alright, the last time No won by 11% (from google search)

    Erm...it won by 5.3%.

    Gigs '21 - Stendhal Festival (July), Stendhal Festival (August), [s]Liam Gallagher & Idles[/s], King Kong Company, Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs, The Undertones, And So I Watch You From Afar

    Gigs '22 - And So I Watch You From Afar, Teenage Fanclub, Mogwai, Stendhal Festival, The Fratellis, Clutch, Kurt Vile & The Violators, The Cure



  • Registered Users Posts: 159 ✭✭ mehico


    Time to forum a Celtic United Kingdom?

    Build that bridge from Northern Ireland to Scotland and leave Wales and England to their own “devices”, and chlorinated chicken.

    No place for the Welsh Celts in the Celtic United Kingdom?


  • Registered Users Posts: 512 ✭✭✭ Joe Exotic


    Penfailed wrote: »
    Erm...it won by 5.3%.

    I went with Wikipedia
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum#:~:text=The%20%22No%22%20side%20won%20with,the%20introduction%20of%20universal%20suffrage.

    Maybe its wrong, have you a link to correct results ?

    My point still stands i think


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Regional North Mods, Regional West Moderators Posts: 81,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ biko


    Scotland had their chance and they blew it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 22,323 ✭✭✭✭ Dyr


    Peterteanh wrote: »
    If it's run again I think the independence movement will lose again.

    Pretty much, the scots will vote for the SNP all day, but they won't vote for independence, havent the stomach for it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,073 ✭✭✭ Penfailed


    Joe Exotic wrote: »

    I'm being a bit pedantic. The win/loss mark is 50%. The difference between the two was 11% but you can't say that they won by 11%.

    Gigs '21 - Stendhal Festival (July), Stendhal Festival (August), [s]Liam Gallagher & Idles[/s], King Kong Company, Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs, The Undertones, And So I Watch You From Afar

    Gigs '22 - And So I Watch You From Afar, Teenage Fanclub, Mogwai, Stendhal Festival, The Fratellis, Clutch, Kurt Vile & The Violators, The Cure



  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭ Sadler Peak


    Bambi wrote: »
    Pretty much, the scots will vote for the SNP all day, but they won't vote for independence, havent the stomach for it.

    Same thing will happen here with a border poll. There is no threat of violence with an independent Scotland there is with a united Ireland.

    An independent Scotland would be a direct competitor for FDI so I hope they stay in the UK.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,243 ✭✭✭✭ TheValeyard


    tenor.gif

    Fcuk Putin. Glory to Ukraine!



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,323 ✭✭✭✭ Dyr


    Same thing will happen here with a border poll. There is no threat of violence with an independent Scotland there is with a united Ireland.

    An independent Scotland would be a direct competitor for FDI so I hope they stay in the UK.

    Scotland very, very different to NI.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,474 ✭✭✭✭ Galwayguy35


    Same thing will happen here with a border poll. There is no threat of violence with an independent Scotland there is with a united Ireland.

    An independent Scotland would be a direct competitor for FDI so I hope they stay in the UK.

    Loyalists are a spent force, too busy dealing drugs and don't have the weapons or manpower to do FA.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,474 ✭✭✭✭ Galwayguy35


    I think although the Scots like the idea of independance and have no love for the English they also know its money from London that keeps the show running.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,105 ✭✭✭ EmmetSpiceland


    mehico wrote: »
    No place for the Welsh Celts in the Celtic United Kingdom?

    No, they voted with England to leave the EU. They’ve hitched their “wagon” to the English for a long time now.

    Maybe Michael Sheen can rouse them and get them going like Connery in Scotland but the “appetite” for breaking away from England has never really been a “thing” for the Welsh.

    He/him/his

    “When you're used to privilege, equality feels like oppression”.

    #bekind



  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ dd973


    They were lied to in 2014 about continued EU Membership being a reason to continue the Union, and cognitively and culturally the independence movement isn't going anywhere, there is also a gradualism movement within supporters who see Scottish Independence as a process not something to be forgotten and discarded based on one off votes.

    Totally different situation to 1979 when there was an Independence Referendum and barely any interest shown, back in those days the British/U.K identity was rooted in the post war social contract which has been whittled away since Thatcher, the Scots haven't forgotten getting shafted by Thatcher policies like rolling out the Poll Tax up there first.

    As much as we see them as 'Brits' the Scots are a nation, they have their own legal and educational system, under Scots law the people are sovereign not the monarch.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,107 ✭✭✭✭ Junkyard Tom


    The Scotch are good eggs but, alas, I think too many are stricken with that most terrible affliction of the colonised mind.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,412 ✭✭✭ skimpydoo


    dd973 wrote: »
    They were lied to in 2014 about continued EU Membership being a reason to continue the Union, and cognitively and culturally the independence movement isn't going anywhere, there is also a gradualism movement within supporters who see Scottish Independence as a process not something to be forgotten and discarded based on one off votes.

    Totally different situation to 1979 when there was an Independence Referendum and barely any interest shown, back in those days the British/U.K identity was rooted in the post war social contract which has been whittled away since Thatcher, the Scots haven't forgotten getting shafted by Thatcher policies like rolling out the Poll Tax up there first.

    As much as we see them as 'Brits' the Scots are a nation, they have their own legal and educational system, under Scots law the people are sovereign not the monarch.

    When I was 18, I was in school in Scotland and I had to pay Poll Tax. When it was introduced in England & Wales the following year, anyone who was still at school and aged 18 or above did not have to pay.

    When there is another independence vote, Scotland will vote to leave. They were lied to last and won't trust another Westminster government.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,895 ✭✭✭ Hamsterchops


    Peterteanh wrote: »
    If it's run again I think the independence movement will lose again.

    Yes, but it could quite easily win!

    I get the impression that the SNP is driving home their independence message very successfully, so much so that I wouldn't be at all surprised if a 2nd independence referendum favours total separation from England, Northern Ireland & Wales < sounds crackers when you look at it this way.

    With new internal borders within these islands, but it looks like that what they want, they want to get back into the European Union lock stock & barrel and that's their choice.

    So they swap London for Brussels, reject the UK and embrace the EU. (But how quickly will the EU embrace Scotland?) < This in light of the fact that if Scotland breaks away from the UK, won't that give the green light for other regions within other countries to break away, take Catalonia for example ....

    Spain won't like it, for a start.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,870 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    dd973 wrote: »
    They were lied to in 2014 about continued EU Membership being a reason to continue the Union, and cognitively and culturally the independence movement isn't going anywhere, there is also a gradualism movement within supporters who see Scottish Independence as a process not something to be forgotten and discarded based on one off votes.

    Totally different situation to 1979 when there was an Independence Referendum and barely any interest shown, back in those days the British/U.K identity was rooted in the post war social contract which has been whittled away since Thatcher, the Scots haven't forgotten getting shafted by Thatcher policies like rolling out the Poll Tax up there first.

    As much as we see them as 'Brits' the Scots are a nation, they have their own legal and educational system, under Scots law the people are sovereign not the monarch.
    They were not lied to.

    In 2014 they were told that staying in the union was the only way EU membership was assured, which was totally true.

    If they left the union then they would have been out of the EU, simple as that.

    This was almost 2 years before any Brexit referendum, and almost a year before the 2015 GE, and a Brexit referendum was always contingent on the Conservatives winning the 2015 GE.

    So at the time it was 100% true, and no one had a crystal ball predicting Brexit at the time.

    Brexit seems to be the driver behind the support for Indyref2, and I totally get that, but again there are no guarantees that an independent Scotland will get an easy route back to the EU.

    And that's were I think it will fail, undoing a 400 years partnership just to have a chance to become a smaller player in a bigger partnership will not appeal to enough people to make Indyref2 pass.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,827 ✭✭✭ Terrontress


    I think an interesting question is not about those who voted at the previous election, but those who are now of age to vote, who wouldn’t previously have been, and those who have since passed away.

    If there is a second referendum, it will be to a different electorate.

    Does anyone have any insight into how older Scots voted the last time and younger ones are likely to vote in future?


  • Registered Users Posts: 512 ✭✭✭ Joe Exotic


    I think an interesting question is not about those who voted at the previous election, but those who are now of age to vote, who wouldn’t previously have been, and those who have since passed away.

    If there is a second referendum, it will be to a different electorate.

    Does anyone have any insight into how older Scots voted the last time and younger ones are likely to vote in future?

    BBC has one
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-34283948

    It appears i was wrong in assuming earlier that the younger voters would vote to leave the UK, according to the above the age bracket 25-50 voted to leave and all other age cats to stay.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭ TimeLadsPlease


    It would be a close vote.
    Bob Geldof is the key.
    If he campaigns for remain it should swing it for the leave camp.


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