Scottish independence

Sunny Disposition · 10-05-2021 7:30pm #1

Is it just a matter of time? They had a referendum, but it still hasn’t gone away as an issue. For more than 20 years the drift away from the Union seems to have continued, despite the huge uncertainty that’d follow an independence vote.
What do those here who know a bit about Scotland think will happen? Could a second referendum pass? Can any government create more solidarity between Scotland and England/Wales?
Also, please don’t put up posts linking the Scottish situation to NI!

Overheal · 10-05-2021 7:32pm

Is someone lined up for the Sons of Scotland speech? Mel is canceled

[Deleted User] · 10-05-2021 7:40pm

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

They had a referendum, but it still hasn’t gone away as an issue.

As it shouldn't. I personally think they made the right decision (economically at least) not to vote for independence before.

However, with Brexit, I think independence now has more benefits than drawbacks.

[Deleted User] · 10-05-2021 7:45pm

If it's run again I think the independence movement will lose again.

EmmetSpiceland · 10-05-2021 7:53pm

Time to forum a Celtic United Kingdom?

Build that bridge from Northern Ireland to Scotland and leave Wales and England to their own “devices”, and chlorinated chicken.

Timberrrrrrrr · 10-05-2021 7:54pm

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

Time to forum a Celtic United Kingdom?

Build that bridge from Northern Ireland to Scotland and leave Wales and England to their own “devices”, and chlorinated chicken.

Who pays for that?

Also, Chlorinated chicken? :rolleyes:

jam_mac_jam · 10-05-2021 7:59pm

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

Time to forum a Celtic United Kingdom?

Build that bridge from Northern Ireland to Scotland and leave Wales and England to their own “devices”, and chlorinated chicken.

No thanks. We have had enough problems from Scotland already.

Let's leave them to their ****show.

EmmetSpiceland · 10-05-2021 7:59pm

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Who pays for that?

Scottish oil/gas money or the EU.

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Also, Chlorinated chicken? :rolleyes:

The Brexit of champions.

Timberrrrrrrr · 10-05-2021 8:04pm

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

Scottish oil/gas money or the EU.

The Brexit of champions.

The best of luck to you :pac:

EmmetSpiceland · 10-05-2021 8:08pm

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

The best of luck to you :pac:

Thank you

Joe Exotic · 10-05-2021 8:08pm

Peterteanh wrote: »

If it's run again I think the independence movement will lose again.

Its a strange one alright, the last time No won by 11% (from google search)

The "No" side won with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the January 1910

You would have to think that the yes(Leave) side hasnt lost any of the vote, so the question is:

Will the turnout be as high
Who will a change in turnout benifit
Can the No side maintain votes post brexit

I think that the yes side have a very good chance. The last vote was in 2014, by the time a new vote is run (assuming one is at all) the demographic changes alone will likley suit the Leave side. Younger voters entering the list and older voters leaving it. Typiclaly the younger voters are pro EU.

In addition unless the current situation changes the north of england an Scotland will suffer most from brexit and the Government may not be able to do much to stimulate those economies give the Covid bills are piling up

Penfailed · 10-05-2021 8:11pm

Joe Exotic wrote: »

Its a strange one alright, the last time No won by 11% (from google search)

Erm...it won by 5.3%.

mehico · 10-05-2021 8:17pm

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

Time to forum a Celtic United Kingdom?

Build that bridge from Northern Ireland to Scotland and leave Wales and England to their own “devices”, and chlorinated chicken.

No place for the Welsh Celts in the Celtic United Kingdom?

Joe Exotic · 10-05-2021 8:27pm

Penfailed wrote: »

Erm...it won by 5.3%.

I went with Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum#:~:text=The%20%22No%22%20side%20won%20with,the%20introduction%20of%20universal%20suffrage.

Maybe its wrong, have you a link to correct results ?

My point still stands i think

biko · 10-05-2021 8:29pm

Scotland had their chance and they blew it.

Dyr · 10-05-2021 8:29pm

Peterteanh wrote: »

If it's run again I think the independence movement will lose again.

Pretty much, the scots will vote for the SNP all day, but they won't vote for independence, havent the stomach for it.

Penfailed · 10-05-2021 8:37pm

Joe Exotic wrote: »

I went with Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum#:~:text=The%20%22No%22%20side%20won%20with,the%20introduction%20of%20universal%20suffrage.

Maybe its wrong, have you a link to correct results ?

My point still stands i think

I'm being a bit pedantic. The win/loss mark is 50%. The difference between the two was 11% but you can't say that they won by 11%.

Sadler Peak · 10-05-2021 8:38pm

Bambi wrote: »

Pretty much, the scots will vote for the SNP all day, but they won't vote for independence, havent the stomach for it.

Same thing will happen here with a border poll. There is no threat of violence with an independent Scotland there is with a united Ireland.

An independent Scotland would be a direct competitor for FDI so I hope they stay in the UK.

TheValeyard · 10-05-2021 8:41pm

Dyr · 10-05-2021 8:42pm

Sadler Peak wrote: »

Same thing will happen here with a border poll. There is no threat of violence with an independent Scotland there is with a united Ireland.

An independent Scotland would be a direct competitor for FDI so I hope they stay in the UK.

Scotland very, very different to NI.

Galwayguy35 · 10-05-2021 8:45pm

Sadler Peak wrote: »

Same thing will happen here with a border poll. There is no threat of violence with an independent Scotland there is with a united Ireland.

An independent Scotland would be a direct competitor for FDI so I hope they stay in the UK.

Loyalists are a spent force, too busy dealing drugs and don't have the weapons or manpower to do FA.

Galwayguy35 · 10-05-2021 8:47pm

I think although the Scots like the idea of independance and have no love for the English they also know its money from London that keeps the show running.

EmmetSpiceland · 10-05-2021 9:01pm

mehico wrote: »

No place for the Welsh Celts in the Celtic United Kingdom?

No, they voted with England to leave the EU. They’ve hitched their “wagon” to the English for a long time now.

Maybe Michael Sheen can rouse them and get them going like Connery in Scotland but the “appetite” for breaking away from England has never really been a “thing” for the Welsh.

dd973 · 11-05-2021 12:40am

They were lied to in 2014 about continued EU Membership being a reason to continue the Union, and cognitively and culturally the independence movement isn't going anywhere, there is also a gradualism movement within supporters who see Scottish Independence as a process not something to be forgotten and discarded based on one off votes.

Totally different situation to 1979 when there was an Independence Referendum and barely any interest shown, back in those days the British/U.K identity was rooted in the post war social contract which has been whittled away since Thatcher, the Scots haven't forgotten getting shafted by Thatcher policies like rolling out the Poll Tax up there first.

As much as we see them as 'Brits' the Scots are a nation, they have their own legal and educational system, under Scots law the people are sovereign not the monarch.

Junkyard Tom · 11-05-2021 12:57am

The Scotch are good eggs but, alas, I think too many are stricken with that most terrible affliction of the colonised mind.

skimpydoo · 11-05-2021 1:38am

dd973 wrote: »

They were lied to in 2014 about continued EU Membership being a reason to continue the Union, and cognitively and culturally the independence movement isn't going anywhere, there is also a gradualism movement within supporters who see Scottish Independence as a process not something to be forgotten and discarded based on one off votes.

Totally different situation to 1979 when there was an Independence Referendum and barely any interest shown, back in those days the British/U.K identity was rooted in the post war social contract which has been whittled away since Thatcher, the Scots haven't forgotten getting shafted by Thatcher policies like rolling out the Poll Tax up there first.

As much as we see them as 'Brits' the Scots are a nation, they have their own legal and educational system, under Scots law the people are sovereign not the monarch.

When I was 18, I was in school in Scotland and I had to pay Poll Tax. When it was introduced in England & Wales the following year, anyone who was still at school and aged 18 or above did not have to pay.

When there is another independence vote, Scotland will vote to leave. They were lied to last and won't trust another Westminster government.

Hamsterchops · 11-05-2021 6:41am

Peterteanh wrote: »

If it's run again I think the independence movement will lose again.

Yes, but it could quite easily win!

I get the impression that the SNP is driving home their independence message very successfully, so much so that I wouldn't be at all surprised if a 2nd independence referendum favours total separation from England, Northern Ireland & Wales < sounds crackers when you look at it this way.

With new internal borders within these islands, but it looks like that what they want, they want to get back into the European Union lock stock & barrel and that's their choice.

So they swap London for Brussels, reject the UK and embrace the EU. (But how quickly will the EU embrace Scotland?) < This in light of the fact that if Scotland breaks away from the UK, won't that give the green light for other regions within other countries to break away, take Catalonia for example ....

Spain won't like it, for a start.

Fr Tod Umptious · 11-05-2021 6:51am

dd973 wrote: »

They were lied to in 2014 about continued EU Membership being a reason to continue the Union, and cognitively and culturally the independence movement isn't going anywhere, there is also a gradualism movement within supporters who see Scottish Independence as a process not something to be forgotten and discarded based on one off votes.

Totally different situation to 1979 when there was an Independence Referendum and barely any interest shown, back in those days the British/U.K identity was rooted in the post war social contract which has been whittled away since Thatcher, the Scots haven't forgotten getting shafted by Thatcher policies like rolling out the Poll Tax up there first.

As much as we see them as 'Brits' the Scots are a nation, they have their own legal and educational system, under Scots law the people are sovereign not the monarch.

They were not lied to.

In 2014 they were told that staying in the union was the only way EU membership was assured, which was totally true.

If they left the union then they would have been out of the EU, simple as that.

This was almost 2 years before any Brexit referendum, and almost a year before the 2015 GE, and a Brexit referendum was always contingent on the Conservatives winning the 2015 GE.

So at the time it was 100% true, and no one had a crystal ball predicting Brexit at the time.

Brexit seems to be the driver behind the support for Indyref2, and I totally get that, but again there are no guarantees that an independent Scotland will get an easy route back to the EU.

And that's were I think it will fail, undoing a 400 years partnership just to have a chance to become a smaller player in a bigger partnership will not appeal to enough people to make Indyref2 pass.

Terrontress · 11-05-2021 8:55am

I think an interesting question is not about those who voted at the previous election, but those who are now of age to vote, who wouldn’t previously have been, and those who have since passed away.

If there is a second referendum, it will be to a different electorate.

Does anyone have any insight into how older Scots voted the last time and younger ones are likely to vote in future?

Joe Exotic · 11-05-2021 11:52am

Terrontress wrote: »

I think an interesting question is not about those who voted at the previous election, but those who are now of age to vote, who wouldn’t previously have been, and those who have since passed away.

If there is a second referendum, it will be to a different electorate.

Does anyone have any insight into how older Scots voted the last time and younger ones are likely to vote in future?

BBC has one
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-34283948

It appears i was wrong in assuming earlier that the younger voters would vote to leave the UK, according to the above the age bracket 25-50 voted to leave and all other age cats to stay.

[Deleted User] · 11-05-2021 12:06pm

It would be a close vote.
Bob Geldof is the key.
If he campaigns for remain it should swing it for the leave camp.

Scottish independence

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