Out-of-control’ Chinese rocket falling to Earth

drunkmonkey

‘Out-of-control’ Chinese rocket falling to Earth could partially survive re-entry
Long March 5B is doing 27,600km/h in failing orbit, with eventual crash site unknown, after launching space station hub
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/may/04/out-of-control-chinese-rocket-tumbling-to-earth

You can track it here, https://orbit.ing-now.com/satellite/48275/2021-035b/cz-5b/

It’s expected to return to Earth on 10 May, plus or minus two days.

Odelay

“It’s potentially not good,” said Jonathan McDowell, Astrophysicist at the Astrophysics Center at Harvard University. Says it all..

Brief_Lives

Scientifically, this is incredibly fascinating, but unfortunately potentially devastating.

still the earth is 71% water, good reason to see it crash into the water.

Following this thread!

fryup

whats the chances of it falling on your head?

*but seriously whats the chances of it hitting people and killing them?

AMKC

Can the Chinese or Americans not just keep a rocket locked onto it incase they need to shoot it down or a few interceptor jets shoot it down either?

Pawwed Rig

“Last time they launched a Long March 5B rocket they ended up with big long rods of metal flying through the sky and damaging several buildings in the Ivory Coast,” he said.

“Most of it burned up, but there were these enormous pieces of metal that hit the ground. We are very lucky no one was hurt.”

That was kept quiet

Based on its current orbit the rocket is passing over Earth as far north as New York, Madrid and Beijing and as far south as southern Chile and Wellington, New Zealand, and could make its re-entry at any point within this area.

We are further north so should be ok.

FishOnABike

AMKC wrote: »

Can the Chinese or Americans not just keep a rocket locked onto it incase they need to shoot it down or a few interceptor jets shoot it down either?

At 27,600kmh it would be a little difficult to intercept.

shtpEdthePlum

Might want to wear a hat if you're going outside between Saturday and Wednesday.

PokeHerKing

Not the first time this kind of thing has happened. If it hits land it will only count if it hits a proper city. Most likely fish food or some poor village in the back end of Africa.

By the sounds of things this will be a regular feature of Chinese space ventures given the way those great bunch of lads are designing their rockets.

JustAThought

shtpEdthePlum wrote: »

Might want to wear a hat if you're going outside between Saturday and Wednesday.

Wasn’t the LONG MARCH a genocide march that killed tens of thousands - seriously bad precedent for a name :0

Must brush up on my exact history.

If the link would only speed up & open I’d be interested in following it - looks like the spaceship will have landed and wiped out a small African city & been in the news before that happens!

shtpEdthePlum

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Not the first time this kind of thing has happened. If it hits land it will only count if it hits a proper city. Most likely fish food or some poor village in the back end of Africa.

By the sounds of things this will be a regular feature of Chinese space ventures given the way those great bunch of lads are designing their rockets.

It may be the second time this particular disaster will have happened, but it's not like China have been involved in any other recent global events that would cause any upset.

drunkmonkey

FishOnABike wrote: »

At 27,600kmh it would be a little difficult to intercept.

You don't need to catch it just meet it head on.

FishOnABike

shtpEdthePlum wrote: »

Might want to wear a hat if you're going outside between Saturday and Wednesday.

I've got a full roll of tinfoil just in case.

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You don't need to catch it just meet it head on.

Like a game of space invaders?

shtpEdthePlum

FishOnABike wrote: »

I've got a full roll of tinfoil just in case.

If you use it all up, you can use the empty roll to bate it back to China!

Capt'n Midnight

JustAThought wrote: »

Wasn’t the LONG MARCH a genocide march that killed tens of thousands - seriously bad precedent for a name :0

Must brush up on my exact history.

If the link would only speed up & open I’d be interested in following it - looks like the spaceship will have landed and wiped out a small African city & been in the news before that happens!

The Long March was when Mao and the lads managed to evade the chase. Imagine if the lads in the GPO in 1916 had continued their escape from Moore Street all the way to Belfast and then won the war.

It's an auspicious name.


First segment of their space station is up, so about 10 more launches to go to assemble it.

Capt'n Midnight

Early warning hat

0lddog

https://www.ifalpa.org/media/3634/21sab10-long-march-re-entry.pdf

fryup

can i sue the chinese government if it lands in my vicinity ?

Capt'n Midnight

fryup wrote: »

can i sue the chinese government if it lands in my vicinity ?

More importantly will the Chinese govt. let you sell the bits on ebay ?

~Rebel~

0lddog wrote: »

https://www.ifalpa.org/media/3634/21sab10-long-march-re-entry.pdf

Such a mad sentence in there; "While the launch was successful, the booster stage of the launching Long March 5B rocket was designed for an “uncontrolled” re-entry, and therefore the exact time and location of its return is unknown."

It's like - We didn't make any mistakes, we just didn't give a shit.

Capt'n Midnight

It's the length of three buses and weighs 21 tonnes and only going 27,600km/h

It's not going more than 41.5º, either side of the equator

current position https://orbit.ing-now.com/satellite/48275/2021-035b/cz-5b/

~Rebel~

~Rebel~ wrote: »

Such a mad sentence in there; "While the launch was successful, the booster stage of the launching Long March 5B rocket was designed for an “uncontrolled” re-entry, and therefore the exact time and location of its return is unknown."

It's like - We didn't make any mistakes, we just didn't give a shit.

Karma if it falls on China I guess.

Brief_Lives

Deleted User wrote: »

Karma if it falls on China I guess.

China doesn´t give a siht...

K.Flyer

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Karma if it falls on China I guess.

Brief_Lives wrote: »

China doesn´t give a siht...

Even if it landed on Jinping's head and flattened half the Forbidden City they'd probably deny any knowledge of it...

drunkmonkey

Quantum Erasure

Due to cross the US in the next few orbits/ hours after projected reentry, if the projection is off...

https://twitter.com/AerospaceCorp/status/1390416330269020160

Our legend:
Yellow Icon – location of object @ predicted reentry time

Orange Line – area of visibility @ predicted reentry time for ground observer

Blue Line – ground track uncertainty prior to predicted reentry time (ticks @ 5-minute intervals)

Yellow Line – ground track uncertainty after predicted reentry (ticks @ 5-minute intervals)

White Line – day/night divider @ predicted reentry (White Icon = sun location)

Pink Icon – vicinity of eyewitness sighting

Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along blue/yellow tracks

nazmoalex

Woke up far too early and couldn't get back to sleep so I decided to watch the live feed on YouTube there. Saw 3 complete rotations or cycles, altitude peeked at around 255 km and it's lowest point was 156 km. Seems to drop big time around Africa, any particular reason why?

Capt'n Midnight

an elliptical orbit means more air drag at the lowq points so it will return sooner, first manned missions did this to guarantee re-entry before life support ran out

circular orbit would keep it up longer more un-predictable as to when and where


note : it's the same mass as the payload, it'a a downside of 1.5 stages to orbit. The big advantage is you can fire up all the engines before lift off so no engine starts on the way

Quantum Erasure

Predicted reentry has moved forward about 35 mins, and uncertainty narrowed from plus/minus 16 hours to 8 hours... current reentry predicted north of New Zealand. If that moves forward another 23 to 33 mins roughly, it's over North America/ USA, forward 45 mins to 1 hour it's over Africa

https://aerospace.org/reentries/cz-5b-rocket-body-id-48275

fritzelly

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Predicted reentry has moved forward about 35 mins, and uncertainty narrowed from plus/minus 16 hours to 8 hours... current reentry predicted north of New Zealand. If that moves forward another 23 to 33 mins roughly, it's over North America/ USA, forward 45 mins to 1 hour it's over Africa

https://aerospace.org/reentries/cz-5b-rocket-body-id-48275

So pretty much be prepared to put your head between your legs and kiss goodbye to your arse if you're in those areas

Total lack of concern by the CCP (no surprise) throwing stuff in to orbit and waiting to see where it crashes

eric hoone

Reminds me of donnie darko

shtpEdthePlum

shtpEdthePlum wrote: »

Can we talk about the Chinese space programme for a minute.

Like, they're not thick.

They could have figured out where it would be coming back in and when just as easily as the aerospace crew above. Easier then these sites, as they had exact figures.

Are they sick?

Perhaps they want people to be required to crack their Acme umbrellas for the first weekend of the summer after a pandemic that their gross animal abuses (or biochemical weapons research) triggered. Keep us on our toes. (not Ireland, but humanity generally?)

I think they're probably just pricks.

I've heard it reported that there are so many people in China that there is much less value placed on individual human lives. However if it happens to kill a feen, I just don't know how the individuals responsible will live with themselves knowing they've dropped a bus out of space on top of someone.

Definitely taking the mick.

Incredible. Something related to a space program falls to Earth like has happened countless times before, and you somehow make that a commentary on how much they value human lives.

Since American-made satellites and rockets have crashed to Earth far more, do they care about life even less?

shtpEdthePlum

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Incredible. Something related to a space program falls to Earth like has happened countless times before, and you somehow make that a commentary on how much they value human lives.

Since American-made satellites and rockets have crashed to Earth far more, do they care about life even less?

American ones fell by accident afaik.

Chinese plan on doing this 9 more times.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Since American-made satellites and rockets have crashed to Earth far more, do they care about life even less?

Also, not "even less" but "equally little" for the yanks probably.

I mean if the pandemic has shown anything it's that human life is utterly worthless to certain governments.

shtpEdthePlum

shtpEdthePlum wrote: »

American ones fell by accident afaik.

Chinese plan on doing this 9 more times.

And they're doing this because they have such a large population, they care less about individual life?

Wanderer78

fritzelly wrote:

Total lack of concern by the CCP (no surprise) throwing stuff in to orbit and waiting to see where it crashes

More or less what all other nations have been doing all along, we re hardly littering space as well as the planet, are we?

We were supposed to have flying cars by now and be post-money and have conquered disease. Instead here we are, still apes, throwing stuff wildly up into the sky and wondering where it will land.

Quantum Erasure

Deleted User wrote: »

Incredible. Something related to a space program falls to Earth like has happened countless times before, and you somehow make that a commentary on how much they value human lives.

Since American-made satellites and rockets have crashed to Earth far more, do they care about life even less?

Smaller pieces of space debris burn up in the atmosphere before they reach the earth, larger pieces like this are usually given a controlled reentry, so they fall in the ocean

shtpEdthePlum

[Deleted User] wrote: »

And they're doing this because they have such a large population, they care less about individual life?

Presumably.

Look at their human rights record (and America's and the UK's and loads of other places whose populations are absurdly, unnecessarily and unsustainably large).

I get that their own population is seemingly expendable (sealing people into internment camps during covid with no treatment etc) but like you can't go dropping busses on random countries... that should, and might well be regarded as some kind of act of war. It won't fly in feckin Canada if that's where it lands (pun intended).

Surely controlled reentry can't be that much more difficult to plan. Its pathetic.

Far fewer of their population died because of Covid-19. The West are the ones who treated their populations as expendable.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote:

Far fewer of their population died because of Covid-19. The West are the ones who treated their populations as expendable.

All humans are expendable in the modern world, look at the way we treat each other, all nations are as bad as each other

shtpEdthePlum

If this is a feature of other space programmes I 100% withdraw my statement specific to China being irresponsible, but I've never heard of another country letting this happen.

Anyway best of luck to NA, NZ and Africa from 8pm tonight.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We were supposed to have flying cars by now and be post-money and have conquered disease. Instead here we are, still apes, throwing stuff wildly up into the sky and wondering where it will land.

Elon Musk has a flying car. Up there, somewhere.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

All humans are expendable in the modern world, look at the way we treat each other, all nations are as bad as each other

Humans treat each other better than at any time in human history. And no, not all nations treat their people equally badly.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote:

Humans treat each other better than at any time in human history. And no, not all nations treat their people equally badly.

Very questionable, humanity has moved into a very covert form of abuse to one another, this takes many different forms from debt peonage, selling goods and services to one another that aren't actually safe for human consumption, and beyond, we actually haven't truly advanced in many ways

shtpEdthePlum

shtpEdthePlum wrote: »

If this is a feature of other space programmes I 100% withdraw my statement specific to China being irresponsible, but I've never heard of another country letting this happen.

Anyway best of luck to NA, NZ and Africa from 8pm tonight.

https://www-space-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.space.com/amp/13049-6-biggest-spacecraft-falls-space.html?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQHKAFQArABIA%3D%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16204527838584&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.space.com%2F13049-6-biggest-spacecraft-falls-space.html

Satellites and rockets falling back to Earth is just an inevitability. It's why satellites have to boost themselves to keep in orbit.

In the coming decades, loads of non-Chinese stuff will crash to Earth, and you won't care.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Very questionable, humanity has moved into a very covert form of abuse to one another, this takes many different forms from debt peonage, selling goods and services to one another that aren't actually safe for human consumption, and beyond, we actually haven't truly advanced in many ways

Far too pessimistic in my opinion. Earth gets better every single day.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote:

Far too pessimistic in my opinion. Earth gets better every single day.

Partially disagree, elements are improving, but critical elements are rapidly disimproving, this is very evident socially, politically, economically and environmentally, this is what's called being realistic and honest with ourselves

shtpEdthePlum

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://www-space-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.space.com/amp/13049-6-biggest-spacecraft-falls-space.html?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQHKAFQArABIA%3D%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16204527838584&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.space.com%2F13049-6-biggest-spacecraft-falls-space.html

Satellites and rockets falling back to Earth is just an inevitability. It's why satellites have to boost themselves to keep in orbit.

In the coming decades, loads of non-Chinese stuff will crash to Earth, and you won't care.

How do you know I won't care?

If somebody points out to that a piece of tech has been launched by a particular country which will fall to earth, we reserve the right to be mildly irritated by that country's actions because of the wider implications of their recklessness.

(ie killing people /destroying somewhere /littering)

shtpEdthePlum

shtpEdthePlum wrote: »

How do you know I won't care?

If somebody points out to that a piece of tech has been launched by a particular country which will fall to earth, we reserve the right to be mildly irritated by that country's actions because of the wider implications of their recklessness.

(ie killing people /destroying somewhere /littering)

I know you won't care because you're in here saying they did this because they don't care about individual lives. You're talking about camps and Covid-19 for some reason.

Stuff like this is just a way for people to be anti-Chinese in a socially acceptable manner.