Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078201#Comment_118078201

Weren't we supposed to get the biggest hurricane to ever hit us last August as regards cases according to Donnelly. Not saying these case numbers won't happen but I would take them with a very large pinch of salt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078277#Comment_118078277

Everyone in your family will catch SARS-CoV2 multiple times. By next autumn at the latest, no one will know if its SARS-CoV2, HCov-OC43, HAdV-C or whatever other virus is causing their cold and chesty cough

fits

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078289#Comment_118078289

That’s true but it’s about limiting risk and attending the important things too. Also at the family events mine are the only ones present that are unvaccinated.

fits

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078328#Comment_118078328

I know this. But I’d prefer if my kids were at least vaccinated first. ( if that’s what will be recommended for their age group).

Dr. Bre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078328#Comment_118078328

Exactly - no point people saying I hope I never catch it

shesty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078268#Comment_118078268

I absolutely get that Raind.The question is do our Government get that?I am not hugely worried about the actual virus or me catching it.I am worried about what lengths the decisions they take might go to in an effort to "control" it, when it's not really controllable.We can slow or pause the spread for a bit, but at what cost to how we live our lives?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078427#Comment_118078427

Of course the government get that, otherwise why did they lift more restrictions?

seamus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078201#Comment_118078201

That is the absolutely most pessimistic projection, none of which have been even close to coming true since January.

There's a not small chance that the current wave has already peaked, which would put that article out of date already.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118076035#Comment_118076035

The HPSC data contradicts you so I would warn people not to take this post above too seriously.

ShadowTech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078276#Comment_118078276

The models that get reported have been pretty pessimistic up to this point and I doubt that has changed with this range of predictions. It’s possible we’ll see the upper end of that range but neither of us is equipped to say with any certainty which end of the estimates is most likely. The reporting is always going to highlight the worst case scenario because it sells / gets clicks. The government has taken a hyper-conservative approach for the last year so I expect they’ll use the worst case scenario as their baseline. But really, just two weeks ago we were told that we had nearly suppressed the virus and a week later we were “on a knife edge”. I’d say that even the experts are not really sure about where we’ll end up.

Sweet.Science

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078443#Comment_118078443

You'd certainly think that based off hospital admissions.

You can take the HSE rhetoric with a pinch of salt. There's a lot of politics at play which has been going on every winter for the last decade.

SeaBreezes

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075866#Comment_118075866

The UK is a disaster. 1000 per week dying from Covid. Not to mention long covid. They have a new variant there too. AY23, also known as DeltaPlus, more infectious, more breakthrough infection. UK is Plague Island, a breeding ground for vaccine escapee variants.

I wouldnt be so quick to 'live' with a virus when we have NO idea of the long term effects of it. We still dont fully understand Long Covid. Tcells are definately aged with each natural infection. Vaccines help. But masks, limiting numbers, distancing and testing and tracking all help too.

UK has globally more infected per capita globally. They are the example of how NOT to do it. And have graced us with another variant because of this approach.

Apothic_Red

Well reading that HSE warning this morning hasn't improved my mood.

The elephant in the room is that the vacinnes weren't the silver bullet we all hoped for.

Has anyone got a better plan than Lockdown #4 cause at the minute it's looking inevitable.

shesty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078440#Comment_118078440

Well, we'll wait and see.

I cannot even begin to think about another lockdown - I can't even go there in my head.I'm not advocating it at all.But to quote themselves, I hope they can "hold firm" and see how it goes, without rushing to close everything in a panic.

Snooker Loopy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078443#Comment_118078443

We had 42 hospitalised by Covid on July 3rd. It's now 513.

We had 15 in ICU with Covid on July 9th, now it's 97.

Last winter the most pessimistic predictions were not nearly pessimistic enough.

As it is, 1,000 plus Covid hospitalisations by January seems very plausible at the current case rates, never mind an increase.

We've heard numerous times before about things "peaking", or theories about herd immunity.

They've always been wrong.

Why would they be right now?

seamus

@Snooker Loopy wrote:

We had 42 hospitalised by Covid on July 3rd. It's now 513.

We had 15 in ICU with Covid on July 9th, now it's 97.

We had 2,020 people in hospital on 18th January, it's now 503

We had 221 in ICU on 24th January, now it's 97

We can cherrypick data all we like to "prove" that one number is worse than another. The only thing that's important is the trend. Hospital admissions have slowed drastically. They grew by 20% in the week to 18th October. And then by just 2% in the week to 25th October.

The numbers given by Donnelly are already out of date.

marno21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078559#Comment_118078559

I was in London in September. People living their lives as normal not locked into their houses in fear of a virus they’re vaccinated against. It was wonderful to spend 3 days in “Plague Island” away from “Social Restrictions Island”

The UK are examples of exactly how to do it. Not like the geniuses here waiting til winter to lift restrictions and causing another massive surge which will no doubt threaten the collapse the house of cards which is the HSE.

The new variant (AY.4.2), which hasn’t been given a proper name yet (Delta Plus sounds like a premium economy product on Delta Air Lines), was always going to appear in some shape or form at some stage. This is an endemic virus. It cannot be controlled anymore and restrictions such as those in Ireland are futile but for the depressing reality that restricting social activities has become a solution to prevent the collapse of a health system which has been neglected for many years and the avoidance of making hard decisions to reform the system instead of just throwing more cash at it is coming home to roost.

Russman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078595#Comment_118078595

I don't think there's a chance in he11 there'll be another lockdown tbh. I think what we have now is where we're going to be for the next 6 months or so. Then again who really knows with this. I thought De Gascun gave a good explanation at the briefing the other day about how a virus becomes endemic, and at the end basically said we still don't know yet how long it will take for this one to do that.

Jim_Hodge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078571#Comment_118078571

I don't thing a lockdown is inevitable at all. But, nobody claimed the vaccine was a silver bullet; many acted as though it was though.

shesty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078687#Comment_118078687

Which I can deal with far better than the approach of indefinitely closing everything, to be honest.Here's hoping.

Snooker Loopy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078650#Comment_118078650

I'm sorry but hospitalisations are continuing to go steadily up with no sign of a flattening out. There is no indication at all of a reversal.

A couple of weeks I was posting here saying that things were deteriorating steadily on the numbers front and you disputed this.

You were wrong.

These are not cherrypicked figures.

They are figures which are entirely representative of broad trends.

And given that since October 22nd we have opened up the country more, and we have winter ahead of us, there is no logical reason to believe these trends will reverse or even flatten out.

Sweet.Science

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078650#Comment_118078650

You may need to say this a few more times.

ICU and hospital numbers at the moment are due to the big spike that started weeks ago.

We are over that now. First hospital admissions drop, then the rest lag behind.

How do people not know this by now

Snooker Loopy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078720#Comment_118078720

All I see here is you saying "it's over", with no evidence at all.

When I pointed out two/three weeks ago that there was an increase in cases, hospitalisations, ICU numbers, I was told by other posters here there was no increase!

Now it's a "spike"?

That's not how it works.

Since July the pattern has been clear. The amount of people flowing into hospitals has been greater than the flow out. So the numbers keep building up over time.

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078559#Comment_118078559

We aren't and should never implement restrictions and stop living our lives over fear of 'long covid', the most common symptom seemingly being 'fatigue'. I'm fatigued from reading people post about it.

If you're doubled vaxxed this whole thing is just irrational fear at this point

Sweet.Science

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078793#Comment_118078793

Look up hospital admissions and come back to me

Also it will never be 'over'

Apothic_Red

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078720#Comment_118078720

But we've been running at 2000+ cases for the last fortnight, these have still to feed through to hospitalisations.

There's also another 2 weeks of waning immuinity, especially in the 60 year old cohort that were given AZ.

Throw in the increased social gatherings etc, winter, Delta Plus, thing is a tinder keg

Snooker Loopy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078807#Comment_118078807

I've been looking at the hospital admissions and ICU figures for weeks.

I base what I say on the figures and the long term trends.

The only thing that says hospital admissions and ICU figures were decline is blind optimism.

Snooker Loopy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078796#Comment_118078796

It isn't irrational fear. The vast majority of people who are double vaccinated have loved ones in the most at risk age groups.

The rhetoric of extreme right-wing American individualism and libertarianism is no sound basis for how to proceed, it's the last thing you'd look to for how to proceed.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078832#Comment_118078832

You might want to take a few weeks away from looking at them as they seem to be telling you what you've already decided. Where exactly does this trajectory of yours lead? To you being right and others wrong? Or are you trying to steer people to your own heightened level of anxiety?

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078825#Comment_118078825

Good job there was a 3 months gap with AZ as it would of been far worse. Come to think of it extending the Pfizer to 3 months as well looks like a good idea now also when you think about it.

namloc1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078850#Comment_118078850

Are you hoping to keep these loved ones alive forever? And what is your end game? Endless restrictions with no end in sight and why do you think it is acceptable to tell other people how to live their lives?

Honestly at this point if you are that afraid of catching Covid people need to stay at home and get groceries delivered etc. Let the rest of us get on with our lives.

Snooker Loopy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078878#Comment_118078878

I base my arguments on the numbers.

I've already stated where I think the figures lead.

Where in your opinion do they lead? And why?

Why would it not be rational to have anxiety about what happens this winter?

You seem to be saying that anybody who does have anxiety about what happens this winter deserves ridicule? Is this so? Is that what you are saying?

petes

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078922#Comment_118078922

No, you base your arguments on how you perceive the numbers.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078922#Comment_118078922

If your going to cite the data you may need to actually look at the data

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

Admissions are falling. Discharges have not caught up yet.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078922#Comment_118078922

Oh, I'm on the optimistic end of things and like others tend to take a 2-3 week window view of it. On that basis it's at a high level but not necessarily growing at an alarming rate. I certainly don't see that where we were say 6 weeks ago gives us an indication of anything.

Snooker Loopy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078954#Comment_118078954

You've answered no questions and given no reasoning there.

Blind optimism.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118079016#Comment_118079016

Nowhere on Boards does it say anyone has to answer any questions!

2-3 week window, high but not alarming, 6 weeks irrelevant is an answer, maybe not one you like and we move on.

Snooker Loopy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078953#Comment_118078953

Our case numbers rose to their highest since last winter just four or five days ago.

Your hospitalisations figure on a particular day is a function of your case figure from six/seven days previous.

You cannot be serious in what you are saying. Since July, the trend has been that the flow of Covid patients into hospitals has exceeded those flowing out.

This is a long running trend.

Those who ignore it are wilfully egging us on as a society to repeat the same mistakes as before again.

We had 155 Covid deaths in September, by the way. September should be one of the least bad months for Covid deaths.

Arghus

I don't really see how it's credible to say that we've flattened out or whatever you want to say in relation to numbers in hospital.

We're still seeing relatively high case numbers which haven't fed into admissions yet, we've opened up yet further and Winter hasn't even started yet. Seems to me highly improbable that cases and resulting hospitalisations won't increase.

Maybe there will be short term fluctuations, but there's an element of clutching at straws going on here to my eyes and people refusing to accept what seems to be blindly obvious, at least to me. Much the same way that if you turn the clock back 3-4 weeks there was a lot of people here who thought a potential or partial delay to lifting of aspects of restrictions was laughable. It was always possible.

As always, could be wrong, and I'm not advocating for restrictions, but I think it's a bit naive to think that things can't disimprove or that further restrictions won't be reimposed depending on circumstances.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118079058#Comment_118079058

Hospiteal admissions have increased 10 fold since july?

Apothic_Red

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078909#Comment_118078909

Cold as it sounds I agree with this, cocoon if you have to.

It still doesn't adress the fact the hospitals will be overrun regardless.

seamus

@Snooker Loopy wrote:

I'm sorry but hospitalisations are continuing to go steadily up with no sign of a flattening out. There is no indication at all of a reversal.

I posted it yesterday, you probably missed it.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118073884#Comment_118073884

I'll even update it to account for today's numbers;

A couple of weeks I was posting here saying that things were deteriorating steadily on the numbers front and you disputed this

Yes. And you can see by the graph above that I was quite right to dispute it. When you claimed that numbers would continue to rise "steadily", we were at 484 people in hospital. 9 days later, we have 503. 19 more. At this rate there'll be a whole 600 people in hospital by Xmas. That's not the "steadily" you had in mind. The reality is that at current levels, hospital numbers will stabilise around 500 +/- 10%, ICU will stabilise around 100 +/- 10%.

There's a possibility we'll start to see a decline, but that's just adding optimism to the figures.

It's pretty clear that you've paid no attention to the numbers at all except what you hear being called out on the radio.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118079073#Comment_118079073

People see what they want to see. You have figures of how this Delta wave has acted from the UK which was the highest vaxed country at the time with no waning problems

End of April - Cases of Delta found in bigger numbers

Mid May - All figures start rising gradually but not crazy from a very low starting point

Mid July - reaches a peak then falls for two weeks

August - Takes off again with all figures rising faster from a higher starting point

End of October - Here we are !

If night follows day as it did with Alpha most Euro countries are where UK was mid August, apart from the Scandanavians and the Med countries who had those record heatwaves this year and will probably start up again last.

seamus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078825#Comment_118078825

We've been running at higher case numbers since the start of October. The link between cases and hospitalisations is a little more complex now than it was before. There's no real linear relationship, and despite high cases number for the last ten days, daily hospitalisations have been dropping. Which doesn't make sense unless you take into account the age profile of the new infections.

I also have a hunch that over the next two weeks we're going to see a decent drop-off in testing numbers and positive swabs. Since the start of October there have been other flu-like illnesses circulating, driving high testing rates at covid centres. This appears to be easing off, which likewise will cause a drop-off in testing numbers. But that's a pure hunch, these have failed me often in the past :D

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118079331#Comment_118079331

Hospitals have been overrun every winter since year dot in this country, for nearly two years the HSE sat on their hands and spurned the opportunity (somehow) to expand capacity and relieve some of the pressure in lieu of the inevitable rise of admissions. Two summers have come and gone in this pandemic, not a tap done when things were relatively quieter. Instead, there is a now a deliberate campaign to demonise the public and divert attention away from glaring flaws of our malfunctioning health service. This state-sponsored finger wagging needs to stop, address the failings within and call off the attack dogs - Claire Byrne, Joe Duffy and other shameless government stooges.

Nyero

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118079549#Comment_118079549

Pity the pan covid front (NPHET / RTE / GOVT) didn't look a bit deeper at the daily rate of hospitalisations instead of kicking to touch with passports until February.

Another review in 3 weeks would have been more appropriate. Enforcement and compliance will fall apart after a couple of weeks anyway, same as always.

Another big fat advertising cheque on its way to RTE to promote the latest round of restrictions.

bloopy

Think we can expect the numbers to start rising fairly rapidly pretty soon.

I now know of at least four workplaces where outbreaks have been confirmed. All just in Waterford and Wexford.

Did not personally know of this many at one time during any of the previous waves.

seamus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118079822#Comment_118079822

I mentioned this the other day, but in defence of NPHET their latest letter noted that the ideal course of action would have been to hold off until early-mid November to see what happens next.

In the next sentence however they also recognised that a "hold off for 3 more weeks and then we'll review" message would not go down well and could be counter-productive in keeping the public onside. Hence the recommendation that we move ahead with caution; being the lesser of two evils.

NPHET have often been accused of being tone deaf and authoritarian, but if one actually reads the letters, NPHET are far more pragmatic and aware of the public mood than the reporting would give them credit for. Most of the recommendations they make are specifically tailored to what they believe is most likely to be acceptable to the general public.

foxsake

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118079849#Comment_118079849

Waterford eh?

Waterford city district has State’s highest rate of Covid-19 infections

County also has highest rate of vaccination take-up in the Republic

Thu, Oct 21, 2021, 21:30 Updated: Thu, Oct 21, 2021, 22:05 - Irish Times

Today Independent online

Revealed: Your local area’s Covid rate as Waterford City has three times national average

.oh...right so...

lawred2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118078337#Comment_118078337

Everyone to their own but children are evidentially not at risk from this. To the extent that the majority of them present as asymptomatic.