Advertisement
If you have a new account but can't post, please email Niamh on [email protected] for help to verify your email address. Thanks :)
New AMA with a US police officer (he's back!). You can ask your questions here

May 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-04-2021 10:00am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (11.0 is the average 1981-2010 value).

    2. Predict the MAX at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

    3. Predict the MIN at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

    4. Predict the PRC as percentage of normal at a grid of eleven stations.

    5. Predict the SUN as percentage of normal at a grid of six locations.

    6. BONUS _ As it appears the April maximum was 21.2 on the first (at Valentia) predict the first (or next) date with a higher temperature than that. If your MAX for May happens to be below 21.2, just give June 1st as your prediction (I don't expect many to choose this option). No location or value is required. Guaranteed point insurance on this, if a large number choose similar dates, then the point allocation will be top to bottom but cannot fall by more than one per day. (I'm setting up this potential juicy bonus points pool to offset the difficulty posed by this month). Normal for the bonus will be set at first day with a 552 dm thickness contour in Ireland on the 0600z May 1st GFS model run.

    That being the case I will hold off with NormaL predictions until around then, but mine are here:

    MTC __________ 10.8 _ 24.7 _ -1.5 _ 150 _ 083 __ 16th

    Note: any late entries quoting an already set MIN on 1st could be docked points in the MIN scoring as well as the late penalty that applies.

    The usual late penalties are in play after 0300h Saturday May 1st. (May day, may day)


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry__________ 9.8 _ 22.5 _ -2.3 _ 125 _ 090__ 22nd


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 10.3 _ 22.9 _ -1.1 _ 130 _ 075 __ 19th

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 153 ✭✭ CirrusBusiness


    CirrusBusiness______10.6_23.2_-1.8_135_085_26th


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public __________ 11.5 _ 25.5 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 099 __ 15th


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal __________ 10.7 _ 23.5 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 094 __ 18th


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 __________ 11.0 _ 24.5 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 110 __ 20th


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002__________ 10.8 _ 23.3 _ -1.8 _ 125 _ 085 __ 16th


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______ 11.6 _ 25.0 _ -1.5 _ 118 _ 95 __ 20th


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ______ 10.6 _ 22.3 _ -1.8 _ 095 _ 108 __ 12th


  • Registered Users Posts: 744 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall___10.9__23.2__-1.6__115__93__19th


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 4,606 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Appledrop 10.2___22.2___-3.0___120%___85%__23rd


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways __________ 10.6 _ 25.2 _ -3.2 _ 128 _ 092 __ 25th


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner____10.6____25.6____-2.3____90____95____22nd


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 ______ 10.2 _ 23.4 _ -2.2 _ 090 _ 95 __ 21st


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac __________ 11.2 _ 23.9 _ -1.6 _ 103 _ 102 __ 23rd


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,368 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Danno __________ 12.1 _ 23.6 _ -2.8 _ 120 _ 110 __ 30th


  • Registered Users Posts: 24 WesternStorm


    WesternStorm __________ 11.1 _ 24.0 _ 0.0 _ 121 _ 092 __ 10th


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ________ 10.8 _ 24.7 _ -1.8 _ 142 _ 087 __ 14th


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn __________ 10.9_ 25.7 _ -2.5 _ 70 _ 120 __ 13th


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 10.9 ___ 23.7 ___ -1.4 ___ 140 ___ 95 ___ 18th


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 4,606 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    May here we go!

    Looks like it got to -2 early this morning at DA and Dunsany. We will have to wait for official data tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610 10.1__ 23.7__-2.5__120 __ 095__ 20th


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    -2.1c at midnight in Dunsany so May min definitely below that


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo ___ 10.4 ___ 22.6 ___ -3.2 ___ 136% ___ 86% ___ 23rd


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    I won't add any extra penalties to those late guesses since none of them had enough precise information available to guarantee a result, and colder nights could follow. Will make up a table of forecasts tomorrow as I suspect one or two more could appear. That extra penalty would apply if one of those quoted a "revealed" value (and it held up, the extra penalty would be withdrawn if a colder value lowered the score anyway).


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,606 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Looks like it got down to -2.7 at Dunsany last night according to Met Eireann twitter, we will know for certain tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200 motels 10.4 _ 21 _ -1.3_ 111_ 79__ 20th


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    As mentioned, 06z GFS (from last night) is used to assess "normal" bonus answer from 552 dm thickness line which first impacts Ireland on 13th.

    Hence this is the NormaL entry:

    11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 13th


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Dunsany -2.7 confirmed.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 13,182 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for May 2021


    FORECASTER ___ (pen) ____ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Next 21.2+


    Danno __________________ 12.1 _ 23.6 _ -2.8 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 30th

    Tae laidir ________________11.6 _ 25.0 _ -1.5 _ 118 _ 095 ___ 20th

    Joe Public _______________ 11.5 _ 25.5 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 099 ___ 15th

    john mac ________________11.2 _ 23.9 _ -1.6 _ 103 _ 102 ___ 23rd

    WesternStorm ____________11.1 _ 24.0 __ 0.0 _ 121 _ 092 ___ 10th

    Dasa29 _________________ 11.0 _ 24.5 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 20th


    ___ NormaL ______________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13th


    Jpmarn _________________ 10.9 _ 25.7 _ -2.5 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 13th

    Kindred Spirit ____ (-1) ____ 10.9 _ 23.7 _ -1.4 _ 140 _ 095 ___ 18th

    Mr stonewall _____________ 10.9 _ 23.2 _ -1.6 _ 115 _ 093 ___ 19th

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 10.8 _ 24.7 _ -1.5 _ 150 _ 083 ___ 16th

    Dacogawa _______________10.8 _ 24.7 _ -1.8 _ 142 _ 087 ___ 14th

    Artane2002 ______________10.8 _ 23.3 _ -1.8 _ 125 _ 085 ___ 16th


    ___ Con Sensus __________ 10.8 _ 23.6 _ -1.8 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 20th


    Bsal ____________________10.7 _ 23.5 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 094 ___ 18th

    Mr Skinner ______________ 10.6 _ 25.6 _ -2.3 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 22nd

    waterways _______________10.6 _ 25.2 _ -3.2 _ 128 _ 092 ___ 25th

    CirrusBusiness ___________ 10.6 _ 23.2 _ -1.8 _ 135 _ 085 ___ 26th

    DOCARCH _______________10.6 _ 22.3 _ -1.8 _ 095 _ 108 ___ 12th

    Gonzo _________ (-5) _____10.4 _ 22.6 _ -3.2 _ 136 _ 086 ___ 23rd

    200 motels _____ (-5) _____10.4 _ 21.0 _ -1.3 _ 111 _ 079 ___ 20th

    sryanbruen ______________10.3 _ 22.9 _ -1.1 _ 130 _ 075 ___ 19th

    Sunflower3 ______________10.2 _ 23.4 _ -2.2 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 21st

    Appledrop _______________10.2 _ 22.2 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 085 ___ 23rd

    Adam240610 ____ (-4) ____10.1 _ 23.7 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 20th

    Pauldry _________________ 9.8 _ 22.5 _ -2.3 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 22nd

    __________________________________________

    Two points were added to late penalties if a value below -2.5 C was submitted for MIN

    ... this is to equalize scoring advantage from the discussion, a larger penalty would be unfair because anyone

    had the option of waiting to 0200h to make a reasonably informed forecast.

    ... anyone who did not appear to benefit from their late submission is not given an extra 2 points late penalty.

    ___________________________________________

    The dates selected for the next temp above 21.2 C ...

    10 12 13 14 15 16 16
    18 18 19 19 20 20 20 20
    21 22 22 23 23 23 25 26 30

    If the actual day falls in the middle range above then scores will be 10 minus error of days but with some increase for largest errors

    If the actual day is at either end of this range then we'll go with some system of groups of three.

    24 forecasts so far, would imagine that might be all this month, but if any really late ones appear, choose either the MIN we know (with this big a late penalty, will just cap the score at 16) or take some lower value if you think it could verify, within 0.4 subject to slight cap also.


Advertisement