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Covid vaccines - thread banned users in First Post

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  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,149 ✭✭✭ hometruths


    it's more like influenza, mutates and evolves a lot, hence vaccine effectiveness has reduced in some respects, and we need boosters.

    The comparison with the flu is very valid in this context because it just another example of the evidence there is a narrative around covid vaccines.

    Pre Covid the performance of flu vaccines was routinely described as disappointing because of the volume of infections in vaccinated people - these were referred as breakthrough infections and cases of vaccine failure, in line with international agreed medical terminologies.

    It was recognised that having a poorly performing vaccine was better than nothing, but the consensus was that there was a need for a significantly more effective flu vaccine. The difficulties of flu mutating and evolving variants were seen as hurdles that needed to be overcome by better vaccine development rather than excuses for a poorly performing vaccine.

    Equally it was recognised that vaccination had some value in alleviating the symptoms in the breakthrough infections, this was better than nothing, but no more than that. It was certainly not hailed as the vaccines working as intended. Quite the opposite.

    By way of illustration consider the following two articles on flu vaccines and covid vaccines, written in the same publication by the same author on the essentially the same aspect of vaccines - the need for better protection from a more universal vaccine.

    The one on flu vaccine was written in 2017 and titled "Why flu vaccines so often fail" and like all good journalists, he sets the tone in opening paragraph with a well chosen quote (empahsis mine):

    The most commonly used flu shots protect no more than 60% of people who receive them; some years, effectiveness plunges to as low as 10%. Given that a bad flu season can kill 50,000 people in the United States alone, "10% to 60% protection is better than nothing," says Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis. "But it's a terribly inadequate vaccine for a serious public health threat." Now, researchers are striving to understand why it fails so often—and how to make a markedly better one.

    The one on covid vaccines was written in July 2022 and titled "Why efforts to make better, more universal coronavirus vaccines are struggling" - again the author sets the tone in the opening paragraph with a well chosen quote (emphasis mine):

    There’s a new call from the White House to develop vaccines that might protect against future SARS-CoV-2 mutants or even unknown coronaviruses. “The vaccines we have are terrific, but we can do better than terrific,” Ashish Jha, White House COVID-19 response coordinator, said at a vaccine summit yesterday that gathered researchers, companies, and government officials. 

    So can you explain why in 2017 vaccines that did poorly to prevent infections, but did alleviate the severity of those infections would be described as "terribly indequate" whereas in 2022 vaccines that do poorly to prevent infections, but do alleviate the severity infections are described as "terrific"?

    What's the difference?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,149 ✭✭✭ hometruths


    Yep, totally agree, that's what I mean when I say the contrast between the discussion of flu vaccines vs covid vaccines is just another example of the evidence there is a narrative around covid vaccines.



  • Posts: 2,079 ✭✭✭ Esme Enough Troop


    It's totally crazy - as someone who has had flu vaccines regularly, have my kids vaccinated against HPV, and have had all my COVID "primary course" and a booster, and only haven't had any more because I haven't had a run of 4 months where I haven't had COVID since, it is galling to come up against this religious fervour and how they are convinced they are the people "following the science". Even that phrase has strongly religious overtones. For a long while, catching COVID was seen as some sort of moral failure by many.

    Every medication has side effects - we need to be open about this if I am to have any trust in them, and not have them rammed down my neck by fanatics. If you are very likely to die without a medication, or not at all likely to even get sick, this should inform your decision to take it.

    I got the COVID vaccines because there is strong evidence they reduce greatly the risk of serious outcomes. Not because they reduce transmission or infection to any significant extent. I can live with the risk of some side effects.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,813 ✭✭✭✭ Dohnjoe


    Summer this year there was a death reported if I recall correctly

    Again, it's difficult to know if it was directly related to the vaccine. There are expert bodies who monitor all this stuff very closely.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,149 ✭✭✭ hometruths




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,901 ✭✭✭ seanin4711


    Washington post yesterday

    Covid is no longer mainly a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Here’s why. - The Washington Post

    "I hear you're a conspiracy theorist now, father!"



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,813 ✭✭✭✭ Dohnjoe


    Behind a paywall, but got it working. Pay attention to the "no longer" in the headline.

    The headline is based on it's content below:

    "Fifty-eight percent of coronavirus deaths in August were people who were vaccinated or boosted, according to an analysis conducted for The Health 202 by Cynthia Cox, vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation."


    On the surface it sounds like more vaccinated people are dying, but since around 75% of US adults are vaccinated, it still means proportionally more unvaccinated are dying. This is acknowledged.


    "Cox, like many experts, says she’s not surprised by the ratio shift. There are a few reasons:

    • At this point in the pandemic, a large majority of Americans have received at least their primary series of coronavirus vaccines, so it makes sense that vaccinated people are making up a greater share of fatalities.
    • Individuals at greatest risk of dying from a coronavirus infection, such as the elderly, are also more likely to have received the shots.
    • Vaccines lose potency against the virus over time and variants arise that are better able to resist the vaccines, so continued boosters are needed to continue to prevent illness and death."

    Ultimately, even if 100% of the population gets vaccinated, people will still die to Covid (vaccines don't offer 100% protection against death, they are up to around 90% depending on variant and other factors)


    It also states that vaccinated are at a lower risk from dying:

    "Boosters

    It’s still true that vaccinated groups are at a lower risk of dying from a covid-19 infection than the unvaccinated when the data is adjusted for age. An analysis released by the CDC last week underscores the protection that additional booster shots offer against severe illness and death as immunity wanes. 

    Let’s take a look at deaths in August, when the highly contagious BA.5 variant reached its peak:

    • That month, unvaccinated people aged 6 months and older died at about six times the rate of those who had received their primary series of shots.
    • People with one booster dose were even better protected. Unvaccinated people over the age of 5 had about 8 times the risk of dying from a coronavirus infection than those who received a booster shot.
    • Among individuals who were eligible to receive additional booster shots, the gap is even more striking. Unvaccinated people 50 and up had 12 times the risk of dying from covid-19 than adults the same age with two or more booster doses."


    (Bolded lines added by article, not me)



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,901 ✭✭✭ seanin4711


    more vaccinated than unvaccinated have died from covid,but dont forget your boosters.

    Strange statement imho



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,813 ✭✭✭✭ Dohnjoe


    It's proportional. More unvaccinated are dying proportionally. This is why the vaccines and boosters are important.

    Keep in mind, even if 100% of the population were vaccinated, people would still be dying from Covid. The vaccines offer protection (up to 90% depending on variant), but not full protection. It's the best we can do with the medical technology we currently have.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭ snowcat


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-11466325/More-20-000-excess-deaths-recorded-Western-Europe-summers-heatwaves.html#newcomment

    I nearly died myself from the heat over the summer. Unfortunately a lot of people did actually die. Way more than would be expected. All age groups too but a lot of over 50's. Strange thing is the trend seems to be continuing into the winter. Must be the extreme winter we are having.

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    Threadbanned user. Forum Banned for 1 week

    Post edited by Big Bag of Chips on


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,567 ✭✭✭ patnor1011


    A lot of talk and explaining of what vaccine negative efficiacy is and why omicron made vaccination pointless.

    Original article on Epoch cant be linked but accessible from here.




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,443 ✭✭✭ EyesClosed


    Any source that isn't far right pro Russia conspiracy waffle?



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,959 ✭✭✭✭ odyssey06


    ...

    A lot of talk? Yeah, a lot of vague waffle.

    Actual evidence of Omicron making vaccination pointless = ZERO.

    Study after study has shown that the vaccines provide protection against severe Covid, without previous infection, versus Omicron and variants for which they were not developed for.

    Therefore your statement is false and without foundation, and is disproven by multiple studies including this one.

    To make a statement of fact that the vaccine is therefore rendered useless, is simply medical misinformation.

    Previous infection alone, BNT162b2 vaccination alone, and hybrid immunity all showed strong effectiveness (>70%) against severe, critical, or fatal Covid-19 due to BA.2 infection.

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2203965?query=featured_home

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Subscribers Posts: 37,302 ✭✭✭✭ sydthebeat


    thats an opinion piece, by an unknown author, with no source for his "definitions" or conclusions.


    the fact he can write an article on 'negative effectiveness' but never once mentioning 'confidence interval' just screams that the author has absolutely no understanding of what they are discussing.

    not even worth responding to it as its has made all the same errors and misunderstandings that have been discussed in this thread already.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,567 ✭✭✭ patnor1011


    It would be interesting to see how we stand in excess mortality this year since data coming from Australia are pretty much very bad.

    Financial media outlet Benzinga reported that this came after the Asia-Pacific nation’s latest mortality data released in November showed that there had been 128,797 deaths from Jan. 1 to Aug. 31, which was 17 percent higher than the historical average.




  • Subscribers Posts: 37,302 ✭✭✭✭ sydthebeat


    hummm


    might it have been, like , you know, the PANDEMIC VIRUS ???

    The current wave of Covid-19 cases is still rising in Australia, with the latest data from New South Wales and Victoria showing a sharp jump in the number of deaths attributed to the pandemic virus.

    Victoria reported 85 deaths, compared with 54 the week before, and NSW saw 48 deaths, after 32 the week before. The total number of deaths is almost three times as many as were reported in the first week of November.


    There were 40,194 new cases reported in NSW and 27,790 in Victoria over the week, both more than the week before, though there has been a slight slowing in the rate of increase. Deaths are usually a lagging indicator behind case numbers.


    The latest weekly figures come as a comprehensive analysis of the impact of Covid-19 on mortality rates has found there were 15,400 “excess deaths” across Australia in the first eight months of 2022, or 13% more than predicted.


    The excess deaths measure captures not only confirmed Covid deaths but also those incorrectly diagnosed and reported, and those from other causes attributable to the crisis such as health systems being overwhelmed, resources being diverted or fewer people seeking treatment.




    Jeez this stuff is so easy ......



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,959 ✭✭✭✭ odyssey06


    It will be interesting to see how countries excess mortalities play out at year end when they are age adjusted, and obvious factors such as covid deaths and heatwave effects taken into account - although there are indications that historic 'official' heatwave deaths underestimated their effect on excess mortality.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,149 ✭✭✭ hometruths


    Indications? Any links where we can read more about these underestimates?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,149 ✭✭✭ hometruths


    Thanks. The American study certainly makes a strong argument that the CDC are more than capable of underestimating the number of deaths caused, and dramatically so.

    However, owing to the absence of standardized criteria for identifying and recording a death as attributable to heat and the difficulty of identifying cases where heat contributed to death from another cause (e.g., cardiovascular disease), analyses based on cause of death may substantially underestimate the total burden of heat-related mortality.

    The authors are assuming that heat is capable of aggravating and hastening death from another cause, (which seems a reasonable assumption), and thus built a model looking at death rates during times of increased temperatures to try and estimate the level of deaths caused by but not attributed to heat:

    In contrast, we used a regression-based method to statistically relate temperature estimates to mortality rates in a large number of communities, allowing for a more comprehensive assessment of the impact of heat on population health by estimating the number of excess deaths attributable to heat regardless of the assigned cause of death.

    All very plausible indeed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,567 ✭✭✭ patnor1011


    hummm (dunno why do you hummm when all you need is just to have a read little bit slower till you understand what you read)

    Article clearly state that one third of excess deaths were not associated with covid. Usual increase (if it is happening) is around 1-2% and we look at 13%.

    How much is one third of 13?


    Similarly baffling may be the fact that many countries with very low vaccination compared to Australian levels do not suffer from extraordinary high excess deaths. But I suppose probably there was no PANDEMIC VIRUS there...



  • Subscribers Posts: 37,302 ✭✭✭✭ sydthebeat


    the "hummm" was in response to the thinly veiled "VACCINES ARE KILLING PEOPLE" post that youre known for.

    what do you suggest the 1/3 of 13% of excess deaths are applicable to?

    are you one of these "Do Yer OWn reSeaRCh" types ???



    how about this for an answer?


    Long COVID and interactions with other serious health conditions

    A previous COVID infection can cause later illness or death. We know COVID is associated with higher risk of death from heart disease, cancer and other causes.

    But a doctor tasked with completing a death certificate may not identify a link between the death and a COVID infection months earlier. Therefore, it seems likely some deaths were due to late COVID effects.


    Delayed deaths from other causes

    Deaths from respiratory disease in 2020 and 2021 were lower than expected. This is presumably due to public health measures like mask wearing. While those measures were in place, people caught fewer respiratory diseases. Some people may have died earlier had their systems been stressed by respiratory disease during this time. So, some of the reported non-COVID excess deaths may be due to the catch-up effect of those people succumbing to underlying illnesses.


    Delays in emergency care

    Around Australia, our health systems are under pressure, with staff absences due to COVID, ambulance ramping, and bed blocks in our acute hospitals.

    Unfortunately, there have been cases of people dying while waiting for an ambulance. It could be that people with conditions such as heart disease, cancer or diabetes may not be getting lifesaving emergency care due to these factors.


    Delays in routine care

    Over the pandemic period we have seen delays in people seeking routine health care or attending screening tests for breast and cervical cancer.

    There have also been delays in elective surgery. And people may have been avoiding health-care settings due to fear of catching COVID. These delays in routine care may have led to deaths that would have been prevented in previous years.


    Pandemic lifestyle changes

    There is evidence in Australia and the United Kingdom a higher proportion of people made less healthy lifestyle choices during lockdowns, such as drinking more alcohol and exercising less. Higher risks for childhood obesity were also noted. We could be starting to see the impact of these changes.


    Undiagnosed COVID

    It is almost certain some of the excess deaths are from unidentified COVID. Unfortunately in Australia, we have no firm data on the percentage of undiagnosed COVID cases, and even less on how that percentage might have changed over time.

    So, the good news is the ABS excess death estimate of 17% more deaths in the first eight months of this year is likely an over-estimate, with the true rate closer to 13%. Of this 13%, some 7% are deaths from COVID, 2% are deaths with COVID, and much of the remaining 4% is likely to still be COVID-related in some way.

    Last week, there were 219 COVID-related deaths reported. If the actuaries’ analysis is accurate, then the true number of COVID-related deaths last week was closer to 250 – a sobering thought as we approach the festive season.


    or maybe you think its the covid vaccine thats killed these people because of some paranoid ghoulish mental capacity you employ?


    so again.... you make it SO EASY to debunk any of your fantasy conspiracy thoughts




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,959 ✭✭✭✭ odyssey06


    And there are countries with high vaccination rates not experiencing high excess deaths.

    Correlation isn't necessarily causation and this isn't even correlation.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Subscribers Posts: 37,302 ✭✭✭✭ sydthebeat


    Correlation isn't causation and this isn't even correlation

    you're holding CTer capacity to understand this at a much higher level that i do.

    in my opinion they simply do not understand what that sentence means, let alone grasp the concept.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,149 ✭✭✭ hometruths


    Your American study cited as evidence that there are indicators death tolls from heatwaves have been previously underestimated is surely just showing correlation without proving causation?

    What do you see in that study that suggests causation?



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,959 ✭✭✭✭ odyssey06


    I don't know what you see in the study to ask that question.

    These are its findings:

    "In summary, our results suggest that the number of heat-related deaths that occur each year in the United States is substantially larger than has been previously reported."

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,149 ✭✭✭ hometruths


    I ask the question because their results suggest deaths have been underreported because of a correlation. Nowhere do they prove causation.

    I am wondering how you see it differently. You clearly believe there is causation in this instance and I am wondering why. Are you able to quote the part where they prove causation?



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