Crimea - recent escalations

Jimbob1977

In the past two days, there has been some sabre rattling and posturing in the Crimean region.

The Ukrainian president has suggested that he is prepared to authorise a military campaign to re-take Crimea.

In response, Russia has increased troop activity on their southern border.

President Biden said that the United States stands with Ukraine, but it's hard to gauge the precise meaning.

Russia is a formidable foe, compared to Libya, Afghanistan or Iraq.

It's a tricky situation. The Crimea is recognised as part of Ukraine, but the overwhelming majority of the population are Russian.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56616778

wpd

is the Ukraine in Nato?? if not why are Nato alarmed

the rest of us are surviving on loaned money and battling a pandemic and these
want to start a war

let them look after themselves if they do

EmmetSpiceland

Nothing stimulates an economy, or at least distracts from a poor one, quite like a war.

Cannon to right of them, Cannon to left of them!

Thelonious Monk

Oh boohoo Crimea river. I can see clearly now Ukraine has gone.
Sorry.

banie01

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

Nothing stimulates an economy, or at least distracts from a poor one, quite like a war.

Cannon to right of them, Cannon to left of them!

Cannon in front of them, volleyed and thundered!

Kermit.de.frog

wpd wrote: »

is the Ukraine in Nato?? if not why are Nato alarmed

the rest of us are surviving on loaned money and battling a pandemic and these
want to start a war

let them look after themselves if they do

Ukraine is one of the most strategically important countries in the world. It's also a buffer between Russia and Europe. Very important.

igCorcaigh

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ukraine is one of the most strategically important countries in the world. It's also a buffer between Russia and Europe. Very important.

Geography is destiny they say.

That part of the world do seem to fight out questions of territory.
Depressing and dangerous.

banie01

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ukraine is one of the most strategically important countries in the world. It's also a buffer between Russia and Europe. Very important.

Agreed.
It's the new Poland!
The EU and NATO membership have shifted the traditional border between civilized Europe and the Russian bear further east, and into the traditionally Russian sphere of influence.

Silentcorner

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

Nothing stimulates an economy, or at least distracts from a poor one, quite like a war.

Cannon to right of them, Cannon to left of them!

Except for American wars in the Obama years right?

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1378441481829167112

biko

Biden won't do ****.

Your Face

Not a popular one, Joe.

Too hard to score virtue points with this.

Gregor Samsa

There's no way the US is being drawn into a war with Russia, certainly not over the Crimea, which Russia has had 6 years to solidify their possession of. So much time that they've joined it to Russia with a bloody bridge. Russia wouldn't give it up without a fight, Ukraine doesn't have the military to do it themselves, and the US don't have enough to gain by getting involved.

Plus, if the US were to pump the billions of dollars, military resources and years of time into it, China are currenlty buzzing bombers and fighters over Taiwan, and would only be only too happy to take advantage of the US being otherwise engaged to invade the island. The US would have to defend Taiwan, so suddenly they're fighting the 2nd and 3rd world military powers on two different fronts.

Is "liberating" the Crimean peninsula (not the people, because the ones that don't want to be part of Russia have already left) worth kicking off World War III for? Ukrainian fantasy aside, everyone knows it's not.

igCorcaigh

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

There's no way the US is being drawn into a war with Russia, certainly not over the Crimea, which Russia has had 6 years to solidify their possession of. So much time that they've joined it to Russia with a bloody bridge. Russia wouldn't give it up without a fight, Ukraine doesn't have the military to do it themselves, and the US don't have enough to gain by getting involved.

Plus, if the US were to pump the billions of dollars, military resources and years of time into it, China are currenlty buzzing bombers and fighters over Taiwan, and would only be only too happy to take advantage of the US being otherwise engaged to invade the island. The US would have to defend Taiwan, so suddenly they're fighting the 2nd and 3rd world military powers on two different fronts.

Is "liberating" the Crimean peninsula (not the people, because the ones that don't want to be part of Russia have already left) worth kicking off World War III for? Ukrainian fantasy aside, everyone knows it's not.

I hope you're right!

Fr Tod Umptious

biko wrote: »

Biden won't do ****.

Well seeing as Obama did nothing when this first off back in 2014 I agree that Biden will do nothing.

igCorcaigh

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Well seeing as Obama did nothing when this first off back in 2014 I agree that Biden will do nothing.

But if Russia invades Donbass?

Nothing substantial will happen here, America is retreating more and more from world affairs.

Kermit.de.frog

igCorcaigh wrote: »

But if Russia invades Donbass?

Putin needs a distraction for the populace from Navalny whom he fears.

igCorcaigh

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Putin needs a distraction for the populace from Navalny whom he fears.

Is Navalny a big talking point in Russia?
I have no idea.

ILoveYourVibes

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Putin needs a distraction for the populace from Navalny whom he fears.

This is all this is.

But the truth is most most Russians don't actually support the annexation of crimea or more military action they are tired of Russian wars. Plus all the men there have to do military service. So they are REALLY sick of it.

igCorcaigh

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

This is all this is.

But the truth is most most Russians don't actually support the annexation of crimea or more military action they are tired of Russian wars. Plus all the men there have to do military service. So they are REALLY sick of it.

I would imagine that this is the case.
Like most countries, people just want to get on with their lives and earn a living.

Those crazy nationalist military dreams mean little to most people.

Also it looks like they are shoring up their Western border to provide a buffer between their Western border and the NATO aligned West. Russia is a dying nati
on, they are losing between 500,000 and a million people a year due to demographic decline, this is only going to get worse as the years go on. Their nuclear and energy capacity means they still remain relevant but this really looks like a low intensity long term argument between them and the Americans, who I don't think ultimately really care.

Pa ElGrande

Crimea is running out of water and it is also a drain on Russian finances.
It is however strategic to the Russian military to maintain access to the Black sea and a gateway to the Mediterranean.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aqq8clIceys

Lots of flexing going on at the moment from both sides.


Tanks being moved in Ukraine early March timeframe.

https://twitter.com/MilitaryBlog/status/1370315978102427650


And there is a constitutional crisis in Ukraine

The Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU) recently plunged the country into one of its deepest crises in its 30-year history. Specifically, on October 27, 2020, the Court declared that the main elements of Ukraine’s anti-corruption legislation, adopted between 2014 and 2020, were unconstitutional. In response, President Zelensky introduced legislation calling for the early termination of all Constitutional Court judges. Later, in December, he suspended the chairman of the Court for two months.

The result was widespread chaos in Ukraine’s political system. Zelensky’s actions were of questionable legality and provoked harsh criticism from all political sides. The ramifications of the Court’s decision include the cancellation of over 100 pending corruption investigations, a development that potentially could endanger future EU-Ukraine trade and economic cooperation Ukraine under the 2014 Association Agreement.

source

And of course negotiating IMF loans.

Since then, everything has rapidly fallen apart and now Ukraine is facing the prospect of a debilitating currency and debt crisis in the second half of next year, as it doesn't have the resources to deal with $11bn of debt that matures in the third quarter of 2021, Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist with the Institute of International Finance (IIF) and Evghenia Sleptsova, senior economist for Russia and the CIS of Oxford Economics told bne IntelliNews in a recent podcast (listen here, watch here).

“It's a typical Ukraine story: two steps forward, one step backwards,” says Sleptsova.

source

This is not a wealthy country and the loss of it's industrial region in the Est (Donbass) does not make things easier.

As of January this year, 8.3 million people in Ukraine received the state pension with a minimum monthly payment of 1,769 hryvnia (64 dollars) and at an average of 3,507 hryvnia (126 dollars). Enditem

source

From the comments section of a Turcopolier article.

If the US is not careful it is going to give the Russians another opportunity to show to the World their military prowess, the flexibility of their Military District system allowing multi front operation and their unfailing support for an ally. As well as potentially letting the Russians show to Europe that they have nothing to fear, if they stop at 30 miles or so and basically go back home. All whilst the US demonstrates the opposite, but then reinforcing DC may trump the World.

We will know in the next few weeks.

source

And English man recently visited the region and filmed some videos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bNzjBJF_G0

Gopniks would probably be the Russian versions of Skanger or Chav culture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XbX3eZu7-I

Piollaire

Deleted User wrote: »

Their nuclear and energy capacity means they still remain relevant

Europe buying up Russian gas via the Nord Stream pipeline helps keep Putin's coffers topped up.

Piollaire

Deleted User wrote: »

Russia is a dying nation, they are losing between 500,000 and a million people a year due to demographic decline, this is only going to get worse as the years go on.

Stats show that Russia's population has been pretty steady but is forecasted to decline.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/RUS/russia/population

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/russia-population/

Piollaire

Piollaire wrote: »

Stats show that Russia's population has been pretty steady but is forecasted to decline.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/RUS/russia/population

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/russia-population/

Those websites aren't accurate, their population declined by over half a million people last year, partly due to the pandemic but also due to a very low fertility rate. This will continue to get worse from now on even with the mitigating factor of some inward migration from Russian speaking areas of neighbouring countries.

grassylawn

Deleted User wrote: »

Those websites aren't accurate, their population declined by over half a million people last year, partly due to the pandemic but also due to a very low fertility rate. This will continue to get worse from now on even with the mitigating factor of some inward migration from Russian speaking areas of neighbouring countries.

They have more credibility than Unknown Forum Poster.

grassylawn

grassylawn wrote: »

They have more credibility than Unknown Forum Poster.

Haha, relax chief, the stats are freely available...

Natural population loss of 688,000

https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/TwbjciZH/edn12-2020.html

TheValeyard

Things must be bad on the home front so Putin needs to distract the people with another war. Dont think it will work this time though.

Pa ElGrande

TheValeyard wrote: »

Things must be bad on the home front so Putin needs to distract the people with another war. Dont think it will work this time though.

He is busy "weaponising" Charlie Sheen.

With the US/UK press in full Russia hysteria mode, right now, it's time for a thread on things the Anglo-American media has accused Moscow of "weaponising."

We shall start with Charlie Sheen.

Yes. Really. Not a joke.

source

Though not the only thing the Russians are "weaponising" and their military buildup EVERYWHERE.



Realistically the Ukrainian government will have to cede Crimea and do a deal on the water and electricity in exchange for securing their eastern borders and keeping the gas flowing during Winter while they work through the sovereign debt default. The Russian government can bide it's time and pick the moment where it can extract maximum concessions to create a vassal state. IMHO - The most workable option for all concerned is Finlandisation.

McGinniesta

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

In the past two days, there has been some sabre rattling and posturing in the Crimean region.

The Ukrainian president has suggested that he is prepared to authorise a military campaign to re-take Crimea.

In response, Russia has increased troop activity on their southern border.

President Biden said that the United States stands with Ukraine, but it's hard to gauge the precise meaning.

Russia is a formidable foe, compared to Libya, Afghanistan or Iraq.

It's a tricky situation. The Crimea is recognised as part of Ukraine, but the overwhelming majority of the population are Russian.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56616778

The president should learn how to stand on a staircase.

grassylawn

Well he's expressing support without committing to anything.

Nordstream 1 was a bad idea and Reagan said as much at the time. The umbilical cord to Mother Russia that is Nordstream 2 should be binned.

BanditLuke

It's still amazing how manipulated people are by the "it's da big bad Russians" narrative.

PokeHerKing

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I recommend you spend some time there once things reopen, great country and people, but are stuck in an oligarchic dystopian nightmare

Don’t conflate Russia with Putin and his mafia, karma will catchup to him eventually and history won’t be kind.

Id say Putin has nightmares about the karma Chameleon.

wes

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

It's a tricky situation. The Crimea is recognised as part of Ukraine, but the overwhelming majority of the population are Russian.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56616778

Its majority Russian as the Tartars were ethnically cleansed by the Soviet Union, another of the vile communist regimes crimes that many don't know about:

https://www.sciencespo.fr/mass-violence-war-massacre-resistance/fr/document/suerguen-crimean-tatars-deportation-and-exile.html

I don't think we should reward communist ethnic cleansing. The smart thing is to cut off Russia economically imo.

zom

BanditLuke wrote: »

It's still amazing how manipulated people are by the "it's da big bad Russians" narrative.

With current catastrophic demographic trend "da big Russia" soon will be smaller than Turkey or even Ukraine. And if some miracle happen and Putin will be gone plus Russian nuclear power dismantled this country will implode with Chinese taking Siberia and USA taking everything else while EU taking all migrants who manage to escape falling Russia. There will not be good solutions for current situation and I only hope for as small disaster as possible.:(

Nermal

grassylawn wrote: »

Nordstream 1 was a bad idea and Reagan said as much at the time. The umbilical cord to Mother Russia that is Nordstream 2 should be binned.

The more energy Europe has access to, the better. I can't heat my home with principles.

grassylawn

Nermal wrote: »

The more energy Europe has access to, the better. I can't heat my home with principles.

Our gas comes from Norway, not Russia. Same as the UK. In terms of expansion, renewables is obviously the way to go when climate change is a priority. It's just practical, nothing to do with principles.

Gatling

grassylawn wrote: »

Our gas comes from Norway, not Russia. Same as the UK. In terms of expansion, renewables is obviously the way to go when climate change is a priority. It's just practical, nothing to do with principles.

But many EU states are dependent on Russian gas and oil to a degree including Germany

grassylawn

Gatling wrote: »

But many EU states are dependent on Russian gas and oil to a degree including Germany

Yes that was silly. Building nordstrom II is also silly. Aggressive expansionist country can literally turn off the gas to countries it supplies, and is financed by the gas they do consume.

Nermal

grassylawn wrote: »

Our gas comes from Norway, not Russia. Same as the UK. In terms of expansion, renewables is obviously the way to go when climate change is a priority. It's just practical, nothing to do with principles.

The more options buyers have, the cheaper supply gets. Climate change can be your priority; it's not mine.

Gatling

grassylawn wrote: »

Yes that was silly. Building nordstrom II is also silly. Aggressive expansionist country can literally turn off the gas to countries it supplies, and is financed by the gas they do consume.

Totally agree ,

Yet Ukraine has still got little or no military support from the EU or nato for fear of upsetting oul Vlad in the Kremlin ,

If they had any sense they would relocate ,a few squadrons of AH64s and A10 aircraft and designate any military vehicles trying to cross from Russia into Ukraine a legitimate military target ,

Putin likes his battles one sided , having a proper strong military presence in Ukraine is the only way to deter him ,
His allies and supporters are calling him to use small tactical nukes to prevent Ukraine from getting any outside help

kravmaga

UKRAINE need to join NATO asap to stop any further Russian incursions into the east of Ukraine.

Why is Putin sending large divisions of troops and heavy weapon systems from central Russia to the border with Ukraine?

Another annex of more Ukrainian territory possibly.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/6/ukraine-says-nato-membership-only-means-to-end-war-in-donbass

biko

Ukraine was once the breadbasket of the Soviet Union.

The communist Stalin caused the largest man-made famine ever there, killing 10 million Ukrainians.
In 1939, Hitler said, “I need Ukraine so they can’t starve us out out like in the last war.”
It was, and I think still can play, quite a critical component in any empire.

Gatling

biko wrote: »

Ukraine was once the breadbasket of the Soviet Union.

The communist Stalin caused the largest man-made famine ever there, killing 10 million Ukrainians.
In 1939, Hitler said, “I need Ukraine so they can’t starve us out out like in the last war.”
It was, and I think still can play, quite a critical component in any empire.

Holodomor - to this day mostly denied it actually happened according to russia they take dim views against any state that mentions it too ,

Some believe up to 12 million died but others mainly pro Kremlin says it was less than 3 million , while at the same time increasing russian losses at the hands of Germans higher every few years

Gatling

Just looking at the size of the russian forces arriving on a daily basis suggest this is no training excercise , definitely preparing for something big

Gatling

Seems now russian forces based in a breakaway region of Moldova are now moving towards the Ukrainian border , something that is very unusual , russian building up in East Ukraine , Crimea and now russian forces moving to the Western border with Moldova ,

Putin planning on taking the whole of Ukraine ???

TheValeyard

Gatling wrote: »

Seems now russian forces based in a breakaway region of Moldova are now moving towards the Ukrainian border , something that is very unusual , russian building up in East Ukraine , Crimea and now russian forces moving to the Western border with Moldova ,

Putin planning on taking the whole of Ukraine ???

If he does. It will become his Vietnam.

Edit: Afghanistan. Twas late and watching war movies.

grassylawn

TheValeyard wrote: »

If he does. It will become his Vietnam.

Vietnam was Russia's Vietnam, and they won it.

riffmongous

His Afghanistan

Hande hoche!

grassylawn wrote: »

Vietnam was Russia's Vietnam, and they won it.

Enjoyed the line in the Ken Burn's documentary on the Vietnam war. That the Vietnamese intervention in Cambodia was Vietnam's Vietnam.