Irish Grand National 2021

JP Liz V1

Run Wild Fred, Coko Beach, Escaria Ten, Farclas, Sempo and Tiger Roll likely runners

Slattsy

Tiger Roll? Really?

piplip87

That Novice chase looks like a craker if Envoi, Energumene and Monkfish are all left in it. Highly doubtful i know but we can dream.

Coneygree

Run Wild Fred owes me one...

gazza1

Coneygree wrote: »

Run Wild Fred owes me one...

Yeah, owes me big time too

maximo31

Boyles have gone NRCB (CashBack) if you fancy anything now. Had a few quid on RWF myself.....

finbarrk

Money for Sempo seemingly. Joseph training. He needs a few to come out.

spuddiesal

Robin de carlow

JP Liz V1

Dorking Cock, a very long shot but the name made me laugh so worth an e/w bet

Limestone1

Time to move on as Tiger Roll pulled - hope to see him in Aintree

del roy

Irish Grand National Trends
02/04/2021/by Andy Newton
Staged at Fairyhouse racecourse the 2021 Irish Grand National is run over a trip of 3m5f with 24 fences to be jumped.

The gruelling contest is always staged on Easter Monday (5th April 2021), while several Irish Grand National winners have also won the Aintree Grand National, but none in the same season – Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde are recent examples of this.

For example, did you know? The 16 of the last 17 winners carried 10-13 or less in weight, while 14 of the last 17 successful horses were Irish-bred. We’ve also seen just three winning favourites in the last 17 renewals, while in 2019, trainer Willie Mullins landed his first Irish Grand National with the 6-year-old Burrows Saint.

Recent Irish Grand National Winners
2020 - No Race (Covid)
2019 – BURROWS SAINT (6/1 fav)
2018 - GENERAL PRINCIPLE (20/1)
2017 – OUR DUKE (9/2 fav)
2016 – ROGUE ANGEL (16/1)
2015 – THUNDER AND ROSES (20/1)
2014 – SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (8/1 fav)
2013 – LIBERTY COUNSEL (50/1)
2012 – LION NA BEARNAI (33/1)
2011 – ORGANISEDCONFUSION (12/1)
2010 – BLUESEA CRACKER (25/1)
2009 – NICHE MARKET (33/1)
2008 – HEAR THE ECHO (33/1)
2007 – BUTLER’S CABIN (14/1)
2006 – POINT BARROW (20/1)
2005 – NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (9/1)
2004 – GRANIT D’ESTRUVAL (33/1)
2003 – TIMBERA (11/1)

Irish Grand National Betting Trends
16/17 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
16/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
16/17 – Won over at least 3m previously
15/17 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less
14/17 – Irish bred
14/17 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
13/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
13/17 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
12/17 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously
11/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Finished fourth or better last time out
10/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
8/17 – Rated between 130-136
4/17 – Won by an English-based trainer
3/17 – Ran at Navan last time out
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 21/1
Trainer Willie Mullins is yet to win the race
Only two horses since 2000 to win with more than 11-0, Our Duke (2017) & Commanche Court (2000)



Let’s take a look at some of the key trends………………

Weight – You can start your weight cut-off point at 10st 13lbs or less as 16 of the last 17 winners ticked this trend, but you can also take this a bit further too. With 82% of the last 17 winners having 10st 8lbs or less, then you could whittle down the runners further with this stat, or if you’re feeling a bit braver, then it could pay to note 12 of the last 17 winners (71%) won with just 10st 6lbs or less on their backs.

Recent Run/Form – Having a recent run within the last eight weeks is another trend to have on your side – 16 of the last 17 winners supported this trend, plus 10 of the last 17 ran in the last 4 weeks. The same amount had also won a race over at least 3m in the past, while 10 of the last 17 winners came into the race off a top four finish last time out, but it’s worth pointing out only 3 of the last 17 won their last outing.

Track Form – The most recent winner of the race – Burrows Saint – was having his debut run at Fairyhouse, but in general previous experience of the course is certainly something to look for with 12 of the last 17 successful horses having raced at the track before.

Betting – In the last 17 runnings, the average winning SP has been 20/1 – this tells us to not be afraid to look a bit further down the market for the winner. Yes, the 2019 winner – Burrows Saint – was sent off at the 6/1 favourite, but he was only the third winning market leader since 2003 and we’ve seen 11 of the last 17 jollies finish unplaced. This is further backed up with 13 of the last 17 winners coming from outside the top three in the market and also returning a double-figure price.

Age – Unlike the Aintree Grand National, where horses aged 7 or younger have struggled in recent times, the Irish version has been okay for the younger runners. The most recent winner – Burrows Saint was a 6 year-old when he won in 2019, while 50% of the last six winners have been aged 7 – did you know, the last 7 year-old to land the Aintree Grand National was in 1940! We saw a couple of 10 year-olds win the Irish National in 2012 and 2013, but since 1998 (22 runnings) we’ve had 19 runners aged 9 or younger.



================================================

Limestone1

del roy wrote: »

Irish Grand National Trends
02/04/2021/by Andy Newton
Staged at Fairyhouse racecourse the 2021 Irish Grand National is run over a trip of 3m5f with 24 fences to be jumped.

The gruelling contest is always staged on Easter Monday (5th April 2021), while several Irish Grand National winners have also won the Aintree Grand National, but none in the same season – Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde are recent examples of this.

For example, did you know? The 16 of the last 17 winners carried 10-13 or less in weight, while 14 of the last 17 successful horses were Irish-bred. We’ve also seen just three winning favourites in the last 17 renewals, while in 2019, trainer Willie Mullins landed his first Irish Grand National with the 6-year-old Burrows Saint.

Recent Irish Grand National Winners
2020 - No Race (Covid)
2019 – BURROWS SAINT (6/1 fav)
2018 - GENERAL PRINCIPLE (20/1)
2017 – OUR DUKE (9/2 fav)
2016 – ROGUE ANGEL (16/1)
2015 – THUNDER AND ROSES (20/1)
2014 – SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (8/1 fav)
2013 – LIBERTY COUNSEL (50/1)
2012 – LION NA BEARNAI (33/1)
2011 – ORGANISEDCONFUSION (12/1)
2010 – BLUESEA CRACKER (25/1)
2009 – NICHE MARKET (33/1)
2008 – HEAR THE ECHO (33/1)
2007 – BUTLER’S CABIN (14/1)
2006 – POINT BARROW (20/1)
2005 – NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (9/1)
2004 – GRANIT D’ESTRUVAL (33/1)
2003 – TIMBERA (11/1)

Irish Grand National Betting Trends
16/17 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
16/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
16/17 – Won over at least 3m previously
15/17 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less
14/17 – Irish bred
14/17 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
13/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
13/17 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
12/17 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously
11/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Finished fourth or better last time out
10/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
8/17 – Rated between 130-136
4/17 – Won by an English-based trainer
3/17 – Ran at Navan last time out
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 21/1
Trainer Willie Mullins is yet to win the race
Only two horses since 2000 to win with more than 11-0, Our Duke (2017) & Commanche Court (2000)



Let’s take a look at some of the key trends………………

Weight – You can start your weight cut-off point at 10st 13lbs or less as 16 of the last 17 winners ticked this trend, but you can also take this a bit further too. With 82% of the last 17 winners having 10st 8lbs or less, then you could whittle down the runners further with this stat, or if you’re feeling a bit braver, then it could pay to note 12 of the last 17 winners (71%) won with just 10st 6lbs or less on their backs.

Recent Run/Form – Having a recent run within the last eight weeks is another trend to have on your side – 16 of the last 17 winners supported this trend, plus 10 of the last 17 ran in the last 4 weeks. The same amount had also won a race over at least 3m in the past, while 10 of the last 17 winners came into the race off a top four finish last time out, but it’s worth pointing out only 3 of the last 17 won their last outing.

Track Form – The most recent winner of the race – Burrows Saint – was having his debut run at Fairyhouse, but in general previous experience of the course is certainly something to look for with 12 of the last 17 successful horses having raced at the track before.

Betting – In the last 17 runnings, the average winning SP has been 20/1 – this tells us to not be afraid to look a bit further down the market for the winner. Yes, the 2019 winner – Burrows Saint – was sent off at the 6/1 favourite, but he was only the third winning market leader since 2003 and we’ve seen 11 of the last 17 jollies finish unplaced. This is further backed up with 13 of the last 17 winners coming from outside the top three in the market and also returning a double-figure price.

Age – Unlike the Aintree Grand National, where horses aged 7 or younger have struggled in recent times, the Irish version has been okay for the younger runners. The most recent winner – Burrows Saint was a 6 year-old when he won in 2019, while 50% of the last six winners have been aged 7 – did you know, the last 7 year-old to land the Aintree Grand National was in 1940! We saw a couple of 10 year-olds win the Irish National in 2012 and 2013, but since 1998 (22 runnings) we’ve had 19 runners aged 9 or younger.



================================================

Nice ....unfortunately Latest Exhibition doesn't fit the bill for any of that! lets break a few trends

del roy

Limestone1 wrote: »

Nice ....unfortunately Latest Exhibition doesn't fit the bill for any of that! lets break a few trends

Can't please everyone.

Happyilylost

Couple of horses I fancied for Cheltenham reappear. Gabynako 3.50 Fairyhouse was well fancied when brought down early in Cheltenham. Once again the money is down. Apologies I should of put this up last night as the price is not very appealing especially when the favourites form is equally backed up.

Skyace for Shark is another for a lot of money. Horse the owners thought they would be paying 15,000 grand they got for pennies. And they've got some great days out. Heavy money down today and it wouldn't surprise me if it's involved. Price again is poor now but it may be bigger on opening showing as I've a feeling this could be bookies being wary rather than a volume of money.

gazza1

Happyilylost wrote: »

Couple of horses I fancied for Cheltenham reappear. Gabynako 3.50 Fairyhouse was well fancied when brought down early in Cheltenham. Once again the money is down. Apologies I should of put this up last night as the price is not very appealing especially when the favourites form is equally backed up.

Skyace for Shark is another for a lot of money. Horse the owners thought they would be paying 15,000 grand they got for pennies. And they've got some great days out. Heavy money down today and it wouldn't surprise me if it's involved. Price again is poor now but it may be bigger on opening showing as I've a feeling this could be bookies being wary rather than a volume of money.

Paddy's have Skyace 9/2 as a special. Soon as I seen that It put me off her.

Happyilylost

gazza1 wrote:

Paddy's have Skyace 9/2 as a special. Soon as I seen that It put me off her.

I would agree. Due too trainer it's easy for a bookie to shorten its price and watch the punter pile in.

howareyakid

Happyilylost wrote: »

I would agree. Due too trainer it's easy for a bookie to shorten its price and watch the punter pile in.

She was a good winner! Some bargain of a horse - bought for €600!

Limestone1

Happyilylost wrote: »

Couple of horses I fancied for Cheltenham reappear. Gabynako 3.50 Fairyhouse was well fancied when brought down early in Cheltenham. Once again the money is down. Apologies I should of put this up last night as the price is not very appealing especially when the favourites form is equally backed up.

Skyace for Shark is another for a lot of money. Horse the owners thought they would be paying 15,000 grand they got for pennies. And they've got some great days out. Heavy money down today and it wouldn't surprise me if it's involved. Price again is poor now but it may be bigger on opening showing as I've a feeling this could be bookies being wary rather than a volume of money.

Well done - great story too. I'd say the syndicate had a fair few bob on after the trainer told them "she won't be bet" !

del roy

anyone fancy this one

THE BIG DOG (P Fahey) is interesting with Jamie Codd retained in the saddle as he and Fahey don’t team up all that much but when they have they’ve returned favourable figures...130P13234121 (4/12, 4p). I also like Fahey last time out winners that return within 60 days are aged 5yo+ and start at 14/1 or less...36/104 | 35% S/R | +£97.88 BFLSP – W&P 59/104 | 57% S/R - 56% above exp...an angle that The Big Dog fits here.

gazza1

del roy wrote: »

anyone fancy this one

THE BIG DOG (P Fahey) is interesting with Jamie Codd retained in the saddle as he and Fahey don’t team up all that much but when they have they’ve returned favourable figures...130P13234121 (4/12, 4p). I also like Fahey last time out winners that return within 60 days are aged 5yo+ and start at 14/1 or less...36/104 | 35% S/R | +£97.88 BFLSP – W&P 59/104 | 57% S/R - 56% above exp...an angle that The Big Dog fits here.

Done all his winning on soft puts me off and also by Saddlers Hall who is 0-10 in the race.

I've backed 3 in the race just small ew bets to have an interest.

Run Wild Fred (owes me)

Robin de Carlow, big risk being off for so long but has some serious form over shorter trips and by Presenting who has sired 3 previous winners.

Brace Yourself only 2lbs higher than when 2nd over C&D and been put away since with this in mind.

oldfella

Went with Eurobot @40/1 and jerrysback @33/1

JP Liz V1

Boyle Sports paying 7 places

Any thoughts on Off You Go?

howareyakid

It looks to be an excellent Grand National field. Latest Exhibition is a fascinating runner, and it will be really interesting to see how he goes. Cases can be made for many of the horses at the top end of the weights, I feel, despite the trends that these horses often struggle in this race. MOYHENNA has an up-and-down record, but I think this was always the aim with her: I remember her owner being interviewed after she won a race in Punchestown in 2019, and he alluded to aiming for the Grand National the following year (which didn't take place, of course). She finished a half-a-length behind Agusta Gold in a mares' chase at Fairyhouse in January before going on to finish seven lengths behind The Big Dog at Punchestown and running creditably in the Mares' Chase at Cheltenham. Hugh Morgan claims five pounds off her also, and on what's going to be her last race before she's retired for breeding, I'm hoping she can have a last big run in her and hopefully hit the frame at 28/1.

Happyilylost

del roy wrote:

THE BIG DOG (P Fahey) is interesting with Jamie Codd retained in the saddle as he and Fahey don’t team up all that much but when they have they’ve returned favourable figures...130P13234121 (4/12, 4p). I also like Fahey last time out winners that return within 60 days are aged 5yo+ and start at 14/1 or less...36/104 | 35% S/R | +£97.88 BFLSP – W&P 59/104 | 57% S/R - 56% above exp...an angle that The Big Dog fits here.

Have it backed. Seems value but the favourite needs to under perform.

French Light in the first tomorrow. Been interested in the trainer since moving over from the states. Baltimore Bucko falling at the last when coming to win last time out hurt a lot so hopefully this one can get its head in front as the trainer is heading back to the states next Saturday so no chance to recoup.

(Find it weird a trainer with horses needing good (or even firm ground) decides now to head home when good ground is on the horizon)

Gavin "shels"

Fancying Brace Yourself 18/1 & Augusta Gold 9/1... Foster/Elliot have a few serious plays here mind you.

GoneHome

Discordantly 25/1

charlesanto

GoneHome wrote: »

Discordantly 25/1

Agreed
Plus Jerrysback

d00mk1n

Big Dog NR?

Motivator

The last genuine grade 1 horse we saw in an Irish National was our duke and he won on the bridle, latest exhibition could do the same today. I’m not saying he will but he’s classy enough. Coko Beach will probably be a bet at the price.

sidcon

d00mk1n wrote: »

Big Dog NR?

Yep ground not soft enough, I had him Antipost which is a pain

Milanative

have come around to the idea latest exhibition is way above these and will have a saver on escaria ten in case something happens him

dobman88

Bryan and Jack reverse forecast for the National. Up the kingdom.

Stewie Griffin

Anyone hear anything negative about Home By The Lee? Gone from 12s to 28s.

del roy

charlesanto wrote: »

Agreed
Plus Jerrysback

In Richard Johnston's blog a while back he suggested Hobbs had big plans for Jerrysback.

Hopefully this is the start of that road.

FiftyP

Took Scoir Mear at 50/1. I think Simon Torrens riding should help a fair bit. I saw the stats about horses older than 9yo but even a place would be grand here.

Doing Fitzhenry e.w. @ 28/1

Peintre Celebre

Moyhenna my dart who stayed on like a train over too short in the mares chase at Cheltenham and caught the eye behind the Big Dog when third in a trial

BorneTobyWilde

I like

Atlantic shore at 40-1 ew
Enjoy D'allen 33-1 ew
Scoir Mear 50-1 ew


My 3 for the Grand National

positivenote

are there any grey horses running in the national today chaps

sydthebeat

Augusta gold e/w @10s for me

maximo31

positivenote wrote: »

are there any grey horses running in the national today chaps

4,5,10,15.

OwlsZat

Rachel's ride looks a typical Mullins sleeper!

Itziger

FiftyP wrote: »

Took Scoir Mear at 50/1. I think Simon Torrens riding should help a fair bit. I saw the stats about horses older than 9yo but even a place would be grand here.

I put a few bob on this at 33s. it's now at 66s, FFS.

Lucy8080

Court Maid looks good to me e.w. for 6 places.

Latest exhibition is hard to get away from for the win.

Best of luck.

Fitz*

Gone with Robin De Carlow

JP Liz V1

Which horse is Rachel Blackmore on?

Fitz*

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Which horse is Rachel Blackmore on?

Robin De Carlow. Was pulled up

ShaneU

F*cking hell my favourite Bob Dylan album just won at 150/1

No I didn't back it wish I did

Lucy8080

Sweet sufferin' you know who! Good luck to anyone who backed that!

Milanative

utter ****e that

Lucy8080

Every mammy in the country with a sprog called Dylan was on that!