The Flat is here 2021

The Mig

It’s not all jumpers and bumpers here...

Flat season kicked off in Ireland on Sunday gone and kicks off in the UK at Doncaster on Saturday.

Link to a Aidan O’Brien stable tour with Kevin Blake on ATR
https://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/aidan-o'brien

FiftyP

Does anyone do a "Dummies Guide For Flat Racing?" In particular aimed at a dummy that likes horse racing but thinks it's stupid if they're not jumping over something.

TheMilkyPirate

I enjoy the jumps but I love the flat. The guineas the Derby the king George Royal Ascot the arc breeders cup all the big handicaps.. by god

High definition wins the Derby by 5+

RivetingRoger

I'm unashamedly a jumps man, but, I have a grá for thr flat too.
Not to the same level at all, but still a genuine grá all the same.

I love 5f sprints. Battaash is one of my favourite horses in either code. Adore him.
Magical, just retired was probably my overall favourite horse in training.

Mogul is another personal favourite. Pure class.
Love is a star
. I am looking very much forward to the Guineas. The Derby falls on my birthday this year!

tryfix

RivetingRoger wrote: »

I'm unashamedly a jumps man, but, I have a grá for thr flat too.
Not to the same level at all, but still a genuine grá all the same.

I love 5f sprints. Battaash is one of my favourite horses in either code. Adore him.
Magical, just retired was probably my overall favourite horse in training.

Mogul is another personal favourite. Pure class.
Love is a star
. I am looking very much forward to the Guineas. The Derby falls on my birthday this year!

Mogul is going in the Dubai Sheema Classic on Saturday. He's 3rd favourite.

On a line through the placed horses he's superior to the Arc Winner Sottsass. A Japanese horse is favourite with Gosden's classy Mishrif 2nd favourite.

It's a headscratcher. Can't see Mogul being ready so he's hard to back.

kksaints

Alright lads, who are we going in deep for in the Brocklesby on Saturday?

RivetingRoger

tryfix wrote: »

Mogul is going in the Dubai Sheema Classic on Saturday. He's 3rd favourite.

On a line through the placed horses he's superior to the Arc Winner Sottsass. A Japanese horse is favourite with Gosden's classy Mishrif 2nd favourite.

It's a headscratcher. Can't see Mogul being ready so he's hard to back.

I'd rarely back AOB horses this early in the season
Interested to see how the Dundalk horses do over the first few weeks on the turf
Slattery ran a few last weekend

hobie21

kksaints wrote: »

Alright lads, who are we going in deep for in the Brocklesby on Saturday?

Mogul

tryfix

Speaking of Mogul, his half disgraced full brother Japan is still in training with O'Brien as a 5yo. How are they going to resurrect his career? Surely his best career move would have been off to the Coolmore NH division where he could cover 200+ mares a year at about €7,000 a pop. I suppose they aren't short of NH Stallions.

RivetingRoger

tryfix wrote: »

Speaking of Mogul, his half disgraced full brother Japan is still in training with O'Brien as a 5yo. How are they going to resurrect his career? Surely his best career move would have been off to the Coolmore NH division where he could cover 200+ mares a year at about €7,000 a pop. I suppose they aren't short of NH Stallions.

Wasn't Japan supposed to be off to, Japan ???
What's happened there?
Undoubtedly talented horse.
The year AOB had Japan, Sir Dragonet and AVD in the derby and no one knew who would be the bigger superstar...............:rolleyes:

The Mig

Mekong 12:50 Meydan on Saturday.

Probably a big price because of his 2 runs this year but his form last year in the Middle East he shouldn’t be that big. He’s only 3lbs lower in the ratings than secret advisor who’s the 9/4 fav. Finished 2 lengths in 4th behind him last year in Meydan over 1m 6f giving him 6lbs.
He then went Saudi Arabia where he was second over 1m 7f to call the wind and had a host of decent horses in behind him that day. 2 Melbourne cup winners in cross counter and twilight payment as well as Prince of Aaran and True Self.
Was also only a length and a quarter behind Kew Gardens and Stradivarius in the Ascot Long Distance cup at the end of 2019.
2 dire runs this year but back over 2m on Saturday think he’s a cracking each way shout.
I’m on at 50s with corals which is still there but others are generally 33s and 40s

RivetingRoger

The Mig wrote: »

Mekong 12:50 Meydan on Saturday.

Probably a big price because of his 2 runs this year but his form last year in the Middle East he shouldn’t be that big. He’s only 3lbs lower in the ratings than secret advisor who’s the 9/4 fav. Finished 2 lengths in 4th behind him last year in Meydan over 1m 6f giving him 6lbs.
He then went Saudi Arabia where he was second over 1m 7f to call the wind and had a host of decent horses in behind him that day. 2 Melbourne cup winners in cross counter and twilight payment as well as Prince of Aaran and True Self.
Was also only a length and a quarter behind Kew Gardens and Stradivarius in the Ascot Long Distance cup at the end of 2019.
2 dire runs this year but back over 2m on Saturday think he’s a cracking each way shout.
I’m on at 50s with corals which is still there but others are generally 33s and 40s

Breeding alone suggests this should be a very decent horse
Might follow you in there
Good to see so many really classy horses out this early

Slattsy

The Godolphin horses are all drugged up to their eyeballs so very hard to beat them out there.

RivetingRoger

Slattsy wrote: »

The Godolphin horses are all drugged up to their eyeballs so very hard to beat them out there.

Their Plane to Dubai was so hot it was like a Happy Monday's gig back in the day!
Horses coming off that plane chewing the mouth off themselves thinking they are Shaun William Ryder

Rugbymad2020

Slattsy wrote: »

The Godolphin horses are all drugged up to their eyeballs so very hard to beat them out there.

And the horse here aren’t???jockeys aswell

tryfix

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Wasn't Japan supposed to be off to, Japan ???
What's happened there?
Undoubtedly talented horse.
The year AOB had Japan, Sir Dragonet and AVD in the derby and no one knew who would be the bigger superstar...............:rolleyes:

Indeed, forgot that some Japanese fella bought half of Japan and bought into Broome as well. It was a great move by Coolmore ( haha ) but they're both still listed as being in training with AOB.

abarkie

Rugbymad2020 wrote: »

And the horse here aren’t???jockeys aswell

Out in a high class country like Dubai?

Are you sure?

RivetingRoger

AOB's mare in the first yesterday was superb
Really impressive
One to watch out for

Good to see Broome back to some kind of form
Strange to see a Tabor horse in those colours

tryfix

Where do ye stand on the Santa Barbara hype? Has there ever been such a maiden winner jumping into such a short price favourite for the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket without taking a second race to confirm the promise.

The positives would be the stable comments that she's grown and is easily beating her workmates. Shades of Nashwan catching pigeons.

The negatives, any value evaporated a long time ago, the form of her win is moderate. If she has grown so much over the winter she will need to strengthen up into her frame. Aidan is full of hype about his horses so this weeks hype can be taken with more than a grain of salt.

Her breeding isn't a great help in understanding whether she's going to be ready to fulfil her promise. She's a half sister to 2 G1 winning milers, one a G1 winning Juvenile who wasn't ready to go better than 8th at Newmarket and bloomed again later in her 3yo career. The other a G1 winning miler who wasn't too ready early in his 3yo career.

Is a Camelot filly going to be ready to take a 1,000 Guineas on her 2nd or maybe 3rd career start? The last walk on water type hype filly to compare Santa Barbara to would be another beautifully bred O'Brien trained Camelot filly ( also a sibling to 2 G1 winners ) and hot Guineas favourite Goddess who was practically declared to be home and hosed in the 1,000 Guineas after one impressive 10L maiden win.

O'Brien gave Goddess the hype treatment and so did everyone else. The filly went backward in the betting after she failed to set the world on fire in subsequent starts. Also Goddess had a 10-12f pedigree, that's what you tend to get from Camelot.

Slattsy

I'm on the Guineas/Oaks double at 20/1 and i can categorically state with utmost confidence I am the only person on boards that has done this exact double.

ballyhagan

Was it The Mig that put it up? I got on at 25/1.

The Mig

On at 28s. Think Johno put us onto it

tryfix

Fair play to ye for getting on in time. Hope ye collect.

It's the Camelot part that makes me doubt the hype.

Remember Pink Dogwood, another reported superstar Camelot filly at home who couldn't live up to the hype on the track and she too was a full sibling to the G1 winner Latrobe who had won the previous year's Irish Derby winner.

After winning her maiden by 7L on her 3rd start, she started at 3/1 or much less in 4 straight G1s without winning any of them. In fairness she got to within a neck of winning the Epsom Oaks.

tryfix

Where are ye at with the colts?

I'll keep it simple. I liked the way that St Mark's Basilica Won the Dewhurst and he seems to have enough speed to get the job done in the 2,000 at a reasonable price.

Wembley for the Derby purely because he's another one of those AVD, Masar types who ran in top G1s at 2 with pedigrees that will get 12f in a race that lately doesn't take a huge amount of winning. Will also have a bet on Jim Bolger's Mac Swiney if it looks like he's heading there.

The Mig

Like Thunder Moon myself. Hopefully better ground in the guineas than what it was in the dewhurst should suit him a lot more

Slattsy

The Mig wrote: »

Like Thunder Moon myself. Hopefully better ground in the guineas than what it was in the dewhurst should suit him a lot more

Same

TheMilkyPirate

I like thunder moon also for the guineas. High definition for the Derby really looking forward to seeing him over a trip. Aidan says he skips the guineas so the derrinstown possibly

tryfix

The Mig wrote: »

Like Thunder Moon myself. Hopefully better ground in the guineas than what it was in the dewhurst should suit him a lot more

Love Joseph as a trainer, there's very little of the is he out for a trot carry on that characterises training in Ballydoyle.

deeks

tryfix wrote: »

Where are ye at with the colts?

I'll keep it simple. I liked the way that St Mark's Basilica Won the Dewhurst and he seems to have enough speed to get the job done in the 2,000 at a reasonable price.

.

I hope you're right. I'm on St Marks Basilica at 33/1 since the day before the Dewhurst last year. Always thought he had loads of ability if he could put it all together from his first career start and backed him for the Guineas in the hopes it would work out well in the Dewhurst which it did.

tryfix

Can't say that any of the Classic Trial winners at Leopardstown jumped out as potential Classic winners. Bolshoi Ballet looked well in control at the end, but he has a long way to go to improve to even place in a Classic.

The Derby picture re High Definition wasn't cleared up either. Overall his Beresford form didn't look any better by the end of racing today.

Bolger's Poetic Flare looks like he would be even better over further.

Donnacha O'Brien's string have been in poor form which helps explain the finishing order in the 1,000 Guineas Trial. How Shale started favourite with a weight penalty and her trainer out of form is a mystery.

So much for pedigrees, Joan Of Arc torched her own reputation today.

Morgans

tryfix wrote: »

Can't say that any of the Classic Trial winners at Leopardstown jumped out as potential Classic winners. Bolshoi Ballet looked well in control at the end, but he has a long way to go to improve to even place in a Classic.

The Derby picture re High Definition wasn't cleared up either. Overall his Beresford form didn't look any better by the end of racing today.

Bolger's Poetic Flare looks like he would be even better over further.

Donnacha O'Brien's string have been in poor form which helps explain the finishing order in the 1,000 Guineas Trial. How Shale started favourite with a weight penalty and her trainer out of form is a mystery.

So much for pedigrees, Joan Of Arc torched her own reputation today.

Thought Sir Lamorak was the best prospect on show there yesterday. Most years, those trials don't look up to much at the time but end up with a few good campaigners.

I liked the run of merchants quay in the 2000g trial. More of an eyecatcher that might have been missed.

NaiveMelodies

Any thoughts on whether or not Lucky Vega will stay in the 2000?
Screams as overpriced based on his extremely unlucky running behind Wembley, Thunder Moon, Masters of the Sea, and St Marks Basilica.

deeks

deeks wrote: »

I hope you're right. I'm on St Marks Basilica at 33/1 since the day before the Dewhurst last year. Always thought he had loads of ability if he could put it all together from his first career start and backed him for the Guineas in the hopes it would work out well in the Dewhurst which it did.

My fancy ante post docket just went up in smoke - St Marks Basilica not declared

The Mig

Going to France for their guineas is the rumour

tryfix

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Any thoughts on whether or not Lucky Vega will stay in the 2000?
Screams as overpriced based on his extremely unlucky running behind Wembley, Thunder Moon, Masters of the Sea, and St Marks Basilica.

He has some serious 2yo form, but he's been knocking around with 6f sprinters as a 2yo for a reason. He went back in trip from the 7f of the National Stakes to the 6f of the Middle Park. Middle Park horses don't tend to win 2,000 Guineas.


There's a few ways of looking at his pedigree. He is one of 5 siblings who have run for their dam. 4 of those including Lucky Vega have earned their best ratings at 6f. One of those siblings was best at 1m 3f, he was by Dawn Approach and had a DI of 1.00. Lucky Vega has a DI of 1.59 which puts him in the sprinter-miler category.

On balance it's not likely that he would be best over a stiff mile.

NaiveMelodies

tryfix wrote: »

He has some serious 2yo form, but he's been knocking around with 6f sprinters as a 2yo for a reason. He went back in trip from the 7f of the National Stakes to the 6f of the Middle Park. Middle Park horses don't tend to win 2,000 Guineas.


There's a few ways of looking at his pedigree. He is one of 5 siblings who have run for their dam. 4 of those including Lucky Vega have earned their best ratings at 6f. One of those siblings was best at 1m 3f, he was by Dawn Approach and had a DI of 1.00. Lucky Vega has a DI of 1.59 which puts him in the sprinter-miler category.

On balance it's not likely that he would be best over a stiff mile.

I was hoping you'd answer this one :pac: Thanks!

tryfix

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

I was hoping you'd answer this one :pac: Thanks!

At least he has the speed to get involved :pac: There's no knowing until he runs, Jessica wouldn't fill ya with confidence about him staying.

kksaints

Kentucky Derby on later tonight. Essential Quality is the favourite and he's unbeaten in five races

scooby77

kksaints wrote: »

Kentucky Derby on later tonight. Essential Quality is the favourite and he's unbeaten in five races

Churchill Downs not coming up on my Paddy Power....anyone know why?

TheMilkyPirate

scooby77 wrote: »

Churchill Downs not coming up on my Paddy Power....anyone know why?

Them/Betfair don't have it. Boyles had it

deeks

deeks wrote: »

My fancy ante post docket just went up in smoke - St Marks Basilica not declared

All the more gutted now that he missed Newmarket. Thought that was very impressive considering he met quite a bit of barging early.

Slattsy

deeks wrote: »

All the more gutted now that he missed Newmarket. Thought that was very impressive considering he met quite a bit of barging early.

You'd wonder why they missed Newmarket with him the way Wembley ran.

Peintre Celebre

Slattsy wrote: »

You'd wonder why they missed Newmarket with him the way Wembley ran.

Either not ready or want him to stand in France I'd say

Slattsy

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Either not ready or want him to stand in France I'd say

Or, and maybe the most obvious answer; Wembley ran well below expectations.

tryfix

Slattsy wrote: »

Or, and maybe the most obvious answer; Wembley ran well below expectations.

The 2,000 Guineas was a messed up race won by horses drawn 4, 2, 3.

The winner Poetic Flare was beaten in France. Until there's more proof it would be wise to not take the 2,000 form too seriously.

EDIT: Poetic Flare gets his chance to prove his French form wrong in the Irish 2,000 and there's every chance that Bolger's bold move will be rewarded.

The Mig

Any fancies for the Irish Guineas. Forecast looks bad coming up to the weekend. Might chance Macswiney who is proven on soft/heavy