FF leadership heaves

Bobtheman

There is disquiet in FF with its present showings in the opinion polls. It follows on from a diasterous election.
It has no alternative leader in waiting. . No star. Forget o callaghan. He might be right on the North but that's about it
What it needs to do is sort out the following
1)Covid
2) Housing
3) health
At the moment its not doing well on any of these.
Though obviously they are all linked together.
Changing leaders won't bring a new radicalism to the Government unless there is a Thatcher or Lemass we have overlooked in the ranks of the party. Then again nobody could predict how radical Thatcher would turn out.

Eric Cartman

MM needs to go, the guy was uninspiring at the best of times and now just looks like a bumbling idiot. the party needs him out if they're to fend off SF in the next election. With the impending tax hikes to pay for covid, the winner of the next election will be the party brave enough to stand for small business owners and the middle/professional classes. They need a mccreevy type business mind with a Bertie style flare for the people.

Floppybits

You know a political party is in trouble if Jack Chambers is considered leadership material.

Bobtheman

He came in at a bad time. Very few national leaders came out well with covid.
The electorate who as a whole are not that bright can be led up a garden path for awhile with a smooth talker - witness varadker and Gilmore but in the end even the bar flies know manure when they see it.
Martin can't even do the smooth talking.
Not a bad communicator as such but nothing that inspires confidence

EmmetSpiceland

Eric Cartman wrote: »

MM needs to go, the guy was uninspiring at the best of times and now just looks like a bumbling idiot. the party needs him out if they're to fend off SF in the next election. With the impending tax hikes to pay for covid, the winner of the next election will be the party brave enough to stand for small business owners and the middle/professional classes. They need a mccreevy type business mind with a Bertie style flare for the people.

Who have they got in line, though? I’m not a FF voter, along with SF I don’t give them a preference, but I give them a lot of credit for “confidence and supply”, how they didn’t use Covid as a political tactic and going into government with FG.

I would consider a preference now but if they oust Micheál Martin for one of their cartoon politicians like O’Cuív, O’Dea or Donnelly I’d write them off again. Chambers would be another black mark against them.

Eric Cartman

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

Who have they got in line, though? I’m not a FF voter, along with SF I don’t give them a preference, but I give them a lot of credit for “confidence and supply”, how they didn’t use Covid as a political tactic and going into government with FG.

I would consider a preference now but if they oust Micheál Martin for one of their cartoon politicians like O’Cuív, O’Dea or Donnelly I’d write them off again. Chambers would be another black mark against them.

Dara Calleary or John Mcguinness would be the two most likely, nothing inspiring in there but better than MM, nothing like what they need though.

Bobtheman

Mcguiness capable of rocking boats. I will give him that

Beechwoodspark

Bobtheman wrote: »

Mcguiness capable of rocking boats. I will give him that

McGuinness has no hope, zero, of being leader. He’s p1ssed off a huge amount of the party over the years.

He readily admits that himself

L1011

Calleary's baggage is too recent; it will pass - the quick resignation will have helped there - but not while COVID restrictions still exist.

freshpopcorn

I'd know of a few FF mad people and families.
They all say the same thing he's a lovely man to meet and talk to but he's not able to lead.

Bobtheman

I didn't say hed become leader just that he can rock the boat. He is 65. Too old and I don't think anybody inthe the party likes him

Bobtheman

Dara made a very stupid mistake but as a communicator he is not bad but I doubt his mistake will be overlooked
In the end FF has to make the government work.
Dump Martin in 2022 and hope they at least have a handle on housing and that the free credit is not cut off from the EU by next election.
SF rise is not inevitably upward. Its based more of a desperate lurch of an electorate who can't remember a functional housing market since the 1990s and still tramutised by the crash.

timeToLive

why would anyone vote for FF again after this display?

mzungu

A leadership heave at this point would be a very bad move for FF.

Aside from being a really dodgy idea in the middle of a pandemic, nobody really stands out at this point in time. Not to mention that it would probably finish off the party.

jmcc

Martin has to ask for Varadkar's resignation or he will be facing a leadership challenge much sooner than expected.

Regards...jmcc

KevRossi

timeToLive wrote: »

why would anyone vote for FF again after this display?

They were voted into power 9 years after being shown the door with a collapsed economy, mass emigration and mass unemployment.

Many people have short memories here.

MM has what he always wanted; he became Taoiseach and he didn't go down as the only FF leader in history not to be elected Taoiseach. He'll probably go over the summer, once we start reopening. The new Taoiseach wants to come in on a wave of good news.

Cluedo Monopoly

When Martin goes, it will be Jim O'Callaghan as leader. 100%

TheValeyard

Actually don't mind Michael Martin. He seems sincere but jesus he's had a tough personal life.

Varadkar will be the new leader.

The integration of Fianna Gael is already complete.

KevRossi

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

When Martin goes, it will be Jim O'Callaghan as leader. 100%

RTE and broadsheets will back him so he does actually have a good chance. Not sure about the ordinary members.

touts

I suspect Martin will finish his two year stint as Taoiseach and then step aside saying he won't contest the next election.

It'll be a sh1tshow of a leadership election as there is no clear successor mainly due to non of them being up to the job. Chambers, McGrath, O'Callaghan, McGuinness, O'Cuiv, Donnelly, Callery, Cowen will all have that little voice in their mind telling them destiny is calling. Even Norma Foley will probably throw her hat in the ring. Whoever wins will lead the party into an election that could finish them even before they get started.

jmcc

Deleted User wrote: »

Varadkar will be the new leader.

The integration of Fianna Gael is already complete.

Thought that they had agreed on being the Fail Party?

Regards...jmcc

Bobtheman

touts wrote: »

I suspect Martin will finish his two year stint as Taoiseach and then step aside saying he won't contest the next election.

It'll be a sh1tshow of a leadership election as there is no clear successor mainly due to non of them being up to the job. Chambers, McGrath, O'Callaghan, McGuinness, O'Cuiv, Donnelly, Callery, Cowen will all have that little voice in their mind telling them destiny is calling. Even Norma Foley will probably throw her hat in the ring. Whoever wins will lead the party into an election that could finish them even before they get started.

I think the last two elections proved that the Irish electorate have finally moved beyond two party politics.
They are not bought off by a bit of economic growth. After the **** of the crash they wanted a better society Housing, health care and perhaps childcare.
They realise there is no point having a decent wage if you have no roof or heakthcare.
However I'm not sure SF can provide any of these things. It's policies somehow promise to provide better services but less tax?
However I agree with you that I can't see Martin being removed before his term is out.2022. If he got the poll figures to stabilise he should go out on a high. We are a long way from an election and FF would be better to focus on policy than personality.
Can anybody pick a party that did better by dumping its leader mid stream last 20 years??

Renault 5

IMO both FF & FG are in serious trouble and I would have voted FG historically.

I have 0 interest in SF but all they need to do is Nothing ( keep there mouths shut) and the next election could be theirs if we end up having a snap election.

I have a feeling ( no reason really ) that the next election will have one of the lowest vote count in decades with people refusing to vote for FG or FF but can’t bring themselves to vote for SF

Eric Cartman

touts wrote: »

I suspect Martin will finish his two year stint as Taoiseach and then step aside saying he won't contest the next election.

It'll be a sh1tshow of a leadership election as there is no clear successor mainly due to non of them being up to the job. Chambers, McGrath, O'Callaghan, McGuinness, O'Cuiv, Donnelly, Callery, Cowen will all have that little voice in their mind telling them destiny is calling. Even Norma Foley will probably throw her hat in the ring. Whoever wins will lead the party into an election that could finish them even before they get started.

Chambers will get a run at it eventually , but not for another decade, for now therell be issues as the strongest chances on the ground and in the media are pretty much all men , but in a party desperately trying to pretend it holds modern progressive views, I wouldnt be shocked if they just threw any female candidate they had into the ring , railroaded through against the wishes of the members and then sent to lose an election with no internal support and a media that can see this.

EmmetSpiceland

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Chambers will get a run at it eventually , but not for another decade, for now therell be issues as the strongest chances on the ground and in the media are pretty much all men , but in a party desperately trying to pretend it holds modern progressive views.

Chambers would do better running with Renua or Aontú.

Eric Cartman

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

Chambers would do better running with Renua or Aontú.

Theres a lot of pro life people in FF, its not the poison pill for the core voters that many outsiders see it as, he’s also not as militant on the issue as lucinda was or aontu are, writing him off based on one view is quite naive as most of the country dont consider it a voting deal breaker

shesty

timeToLive wrote: »

why would anyone vote for FF again after this display?

I asked myself that repeatedly the last few years - after what they did allowed to happen during the 00s, why would anyone put them back in power again? Apparently they have enough of a voter base, but I suspect that voter base is dwindling in numbers. They won't ever have my vote, regardless of who is in charge. I heard murmurings of Norma Foley as a potential leader....:eek::eek:...I am a woman, and I hope to God they do not install her as a leader just to gain brownie points on gender equality.



Much like one of the other posters, I expect the next election to be very, very mixed, but FF to do badly out of it.

McGrath would probably be my first choice for leader of FF. He appears smart, assertive, and quite likeable which is a rarity of FF members. MM is no leader, he’s a dishcloth. But I would be much more worried about the rise of SF. I am conservative but I understand why people are fed up. I’m fed up, I just couldn’t bring myself to vote that far left. I think a lot of FF members are considering working with SF if it means their survival.

Feisar

Do parties not scout for potential leaders from early on in people's political careers? A parties popularity seems to be linked strongly to the leader, especially with our homogeneous main stream parties. You'd think FF would have a cohort of five or six charismatic people groomed for the top job. Or is it a case of whoever is senior when the role crops up?

Cluedo Monopoly

KevRossi wrote: »

RTE and broadsheets will back him so he does actually have a good chance. Not sure about the ordinary members.

Jim has huge support amongst the ordinary members. You wont hear too much about it but he ran a very strong campaign last March-June to prevent the FFG coalition.

Loafing Oaf

touts wrote: »

I suspect Martin will finish his two year stint as Taoiseach and then step aside saying he won't contest the next election.

I think you're right, except (pedant alert) it's two and a half years. No history of defenestrating sitting taoisigh in FF or FG.
Martin currently saying he will lead the party into the next election but he has to do that or he becomes a lame duck.

Even Norma Foley will probably throw her hat in the ring

Her necklace, to be precise. Although taking it off may have the Lady Melisandre effect...

flazio

timeToLive wrote: »

why would anyone vote for FF again after this display?

I suspect it's less voting FOR Fianna Fáil and more voting AGAINST Sinn Féin.

Loafing Oaf

flazio wrote: »

I suspect it's less voting FOR Fianna Fáil and more voting AGAINST Sinn Féin.

But if you're strongly anti-SF why would you give FF any preference, given many FF TDs have said they are prepared to go into government with SF?

EmmetSpiceland

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Theres a lot of pro life people in FF, its not the poison pill for the core voters that many outsiders see it as, he’s also not as militant on the issue as lucinda was or aontu are, writing him off based on one view is quite naive as most of the country dont consider it a voting deal breaker

I’m not “writing him off” but if it’s party leadership he’s after, and doesn’t want to wait 10 years, then he should throw his hat in with either of those parties.

Bannasidhe

Deleted User wrote: »

McGrath would probably be my first choice for leader of FF. He appears smart, assertive, and quite likeable which is a rarity of FF members. MM is no leader, he’s a dishcloth.

I agree of the current crop McGrath is probably the best. He tends to steer clear of controversy, his dept isn't in the news linked to cock-up, he is popular in his constituency (even non-FF voters acknowledge he is a good representative/advocate for his constituents) but will FF accept two leaders from Cork in a row?
We have already seen how the "there's no minister from *insert region here* caused ructions when this govt was formed so I would be surprised if the 'geographical' implications didn't play a part in leadership selection. Not that MM has been good for Cork, far from it.

osarusan

I think the idea that FF will somehow come to an end after the next election is fairly fanciful.

If the financial crisis and bailout didn't kill them, what will?

They have a massive nationwide infrastructure and will continue to have that even if they take a hiding at the next GE.

And will they take such a hiding? They're in govt with FG, so there won't be a massive shift in votes there, and even if SF did take power, I think they'd f**k it up so monumentally that they'd be the ones taking a hiding in the GE after that.

Mad_maxx

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

Who have they got in line, though? I’m not a FF voter, along with SF I don’t give them a preference, but I give them a lot of credit for “confidence and supply”, how they didn’t use Covid as a political tactic and going into government with FG.

I would consider a preference now but if they oust Micheál Martin for one of their cartoon politicians like O’Cuív, O’Dea or Donnelly I’d write them off again. Chambers would be another black mark against them.

i will gauge how good a choice they make for leader based on how much contempt people like you hold for that choice

the biggest mistake MM made was pitching towards progressive liberals and ignoring rural conservatives , no self respecting WOKE progressive would ever vote FF or at least give then a number one

Mad_maxx

L1011 wrote: »

Calleary's baggage is too recent; it will pass - the quick resignation will have helped there - but not while COVID restrictions still exist.

Calleary looks like a cabbage patch doll and does not have a good voice either , he is not suitable , he can be the brain of whoever becomes leader but he is not leadership material at all

Mad_maxx

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

When Martin goes, it will be Jim O'Callaghan as leader. 100%

far too south dublin , FF dont like or trust posh guys and more to the point people who are too intellectual in how they communicate

Bobtheman

Deleted User wrote: »

McGrath would probably be my first choice for leader of FF. He appears smart, assertive, and quite likeable which is a rarity of FF members. MM is no leader, he’s a dishcloth. But I would be much more worried about the rise of SF. I am conservative but I understand why people are fed up. I’m fed up, I just couldn’t bring myself to vote that far left. I think a lot of FF members are considering working with SF if it means their survival.

McGrath is smart and a survivor. To return two FF in 2011 in one constituency was some achievements. The other was Martin. But his media personality is terrible. He just bores the pants off people. Coveney has the same issue in FG. Unfortunately in this media age you can't be a leader and a poor performer. They almost dumped Enda Kenny over the same thing. Thus only if they are desperate would they turn to him.
Jim o callaghan has never even held a junior ministry.
He turned down one because it was beneath him and he earns more money in the law. I suppose you can't rule him out but I'd see dara callery or darragh o brien getting in before him. He has not done a huge amount for the party. Jim. Too busy making big bucks

Loafing Oaf

osarusan wrote: »

They're in govt with FG, so there won't be a massive shift in votes there,

I agree there's a limit to how big the swing from FF to FG will be, given the two parties are running on (largely) the same record, but I still believe there will almost certainly be a sizeable swing in that direction, given FG will be positioning itself as the ant-SF going ninto the election, while FF will be caught in no-man's land between the two (emerging) 'big parties'.

Renault 5

Question -

Is there a minimum % of voter turnout required to confirm an election?

Muahahaha

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

When Martin goes, it will be Jim O'Callaghan as leader. 100%

KevRossi wrote: »

RTE and broadsheets will back him so he does actually have a good chance. Not sure about the ordinary members.

Would agree O'Callaghan is the favourite and theres no doubt he wants it badly.
I would say O'Callaghan is spending his time on the backbenches gathering support for his bid but he also has to win over the party grass roots. A Dublin 6 barrister he doesnt strike me as the type to win them over on a chicken and chips tour of Fianna Fail cumanns.

I think the quite man here is Michael McGrath. He is liked by rural members of Fianna Fail and would be palatable to the Dublin set too.

Loafing Oaf

Muahahaha wrote: »

Would agree O'Callaghan is the favourite and theres no doubt he wants it badly.
I would say O'Callaghan is spending his time on the backbenches gathering support for his bid but he also has to win over the party grass roots.

I think many of those same grass roots, while they might not warm to JOC personally, have enough political smarts to recognise that he is their best bet for winning over floating voters.

Muahahaha

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I think many of those same grass roots, while they might not warm to JOC personally, have enough political smarts to recognise that he is their best bet for winning over floating voters.

yeah would agree there is an element of real politik about it and JOC would likely make the better leader. But also think he has a lot of work to do with the grassroots to get there as he comes across as quite aloof and doesnt strike me as a person who understands much outside his Dublin bubble. He needs to get his wellies on and get down the the Ploughing Championships to press the flesh.

Either way FF are choosing from the least worst option as there is no stand out candidate. Both OCallaghan and McGrath are charisma free zones and neither are particularly inspiring.

EmmetSpiceland

Mad_maxx wrote: »

i will gauge how good a choice they make for leader based on how much contempt people like you hold for that choice

the biggest mistake MM made was pitching towards progressive liberals and ignoring rural conservatives , no self respecting WOKE progressive would ever vote FF or at least give then a number one

I hold contempt for FF as a party, regardless of their leader. I do, however, give Micheál Martin a lot of “credit” for putting the country first. My issue with them stems from the crash and tribunal related matters.

Are you an FF voter, M? You don’t “strike” me as one, at all. Would have had you down as a National Party, Direct Democracy or some angry independent with a lot of gripes type voter.

If you have a vote for party leadership, yourself, who would you be “backing”? Éamon Ó’Cuív?

flazio

Renault 5 wrote: »

Question -

Is there a minimum % of voter turnout required to confirm an election?

Not that I'm aware of.
And to answer above why people would have voted FF as an anti SF vote when some in the party were considering SF as partners, it's simple. The amount of time Mary Lou McDonagh went after Martin instead of Varadkar in the election campaign meant there wasn't a chance the two parties would form an alliance.

Loafing Oaf

Mad_maxx wrote: »

i will gauge how good a choice they make for leader based on how much contempt people like you hold for that choice

the biggest mistake MM made was pitching towards progressive liberals and ignoring rural conservatives , no self respecting WOKE progressive would ever vote FF or at least give then a number one

Where did those rural conservatives who would otherwise have voted FF move their vote in the last election, and where are they likely to at next one?

Eric Cartman

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Where did those rural conservatives who would otherwise have voted FF move their vote in the last election, and where are they likely to at next one?

FG because they were promised tax cuts, now theyve been burned twice by that lie If theres anyone showing a bit of backbone in their constituencies it could go that way, probably to an independent as theres no party that represents the working man right now

Loafing Oaf

Eric Cartman wrote: »

FG because they were promised tax cuts, now theyve been burned twice by that lie

You think there was a significant move from FF to FG at the last election? Even though FG lost 14 seats?