Ninja Snow - February 17th-18th 2021 - Inland West/Midlands/High Ground

Danno

Just a heads up on a period of snow tomorrow night for a time:





FAX:



A double cold front pushes eastwards across Ireland introducing a brief cold spell ridging in from the west/northwest.

DOCARCH

Met Eireann mentioned this in their forecast and even Gerry said the word 'snow' in his 7.55am forecast this morning!

Danno

Wednesday night: Heavy rain will spread northeastwards over Ireland with a risk of flooding and some sleet or snow in places, mainly on high ground in the west. Some icy patches may form as lowest temperatures fall to between -1 to +3 degrees. Fresh to strong and gusty southerly winds in the southeast, elsewhere moderate to fresh and gusty cyclonic variable breezes. Winds will veer moderate to fresh westerly everywhere by morning.

FROM: http://archive.met.ie/forecasts/

Donegal Ken

Ecmwf and ICON has the risk further west up across Connacht into west Ulster now. Latest Gfs also trending westwards. Interesting watch.

Nqp15hhu

Hope it’s not another Letterkenny only event, which seems to happen a lot lately.

Tyrone212

Weather on tv just mentioned the North West.

Donegal Ken

Saturday was not a Letterkenny event it was rather widespread. Very marginal all the same tomorrow night. Could be a few surprised faces on Thursday morning.

Nqp15hhu

The marginal events have been Letterkenny only events. The NW we had before the easterly is an example.

Anyway I would wager this will be a 200 metre + event for wet snow here and the vast majority of NI, maybe even higher for eastern NI.

The two usual suspects on netweather might get a dusting though.

Donegal Ken

Areas like Ballybofey, Barnesmore & Lifford for example normally do well in these marginal events.

Tyrone212

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The marginal events have been Letterkenny only events. The NW we had before the easterly is an example.

It wasn't just letterkenny. Large parts of Donegal(especially Eastern)and West Tyrone. Parts of Derry. I'm sure other areas as well. Would be very weird if only letterkenny got snow and nowhere else.

Kermit.de.frog

Cold enough for a frontal situation. Decent enough chance of some snowfall in these locations overnight tomorrow. Won't amount to much but it would be nice to see falling.

Nqp15hhu

And further east later on of course.

pauldry

Kermits spoken. So it WILL snow.

Why does thread title say midlands inland SW

Donegal Ken

First of all the risk was in the east and south now models have started to bring it more westwards up over Connacht and west Ulster. Waiting for some of the models to verify.

Danno

pauldry wrote: »

Kermits spoken. So it WILL snow.

Why does thread title say midlands inland SW

Updated thread title to keep in tune with shifting model trends.

davidsr20

Athenry looks rite in the firing line

Donegal Ken

Most likely be a Rainfall warning issued with a mention of some sleet and snow for a time in places.

davidsr20

Donegal Ken wrote: »

Most likely be a Rainfall warning issued with a mention of some sleet and snow for a time in places.

Wow thanks lol

Villain

Th difference across models on this is very interesting!

pauldry

Ninja Sleet now forecast bar mountains

Kermit.de.frog

Sleet and snow risk has now transferred to the south Midlands. Temporary wet snow for a time. Wicklow getting some snowfall on high ground.

highdef

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sleet and snow risk has now transferred to the south Midlands. Temporary wet snow for a time. Wicklow getting some snowfall on high ground.

Is that according to one particular model or a blend of models?

pad199207

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Wexford, Wicklow and Waterford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Southerly winds tonight will reach mean speeds of 50 to 60km/h with gusts of 80 to 100km/h, highest in coastal areas. Where winds are onshore there is a risk of coastal flooding around high tide.

Valid: 23:00 Wednesday 17/02/2021 to 05:00 Thursday 18/02/2021

Issued: 09:00 Wednesday 17/02/2021

iagreebut

According to Looks like there is a lot of pasting on the way, well that's my synopsis of MT'S forecast

highdef

iagreebut wrote: »

According to Looks like there is a lot of pasting on the way, well that's my synopsis of MT'S forecast

I must be reading the wrong thing as the closest thing I can see to anywhere being mentioned as getting a pasting in todays forecast by MT is "sleet over higher parts of west Munster and Connacht" tonight and you would be very well pushed to describe that as a pasting

Nqp15hhu

The ECM and Arpege says snow for the Western half of the island but gfs doesn’t.

All depends on how far west the warm front heads and the intensity of precipitation.

pauldry

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The ECM and Arpege says snow for the Western half of the island but gfs doesn’t.

All depends on how far west the warm front heads and the intensity of precipitation.

ECM v GFS

Who wins?
Well see.

Incidentally enormous thunder just a while ago in Sligo

iagreebut

highdef wrote: »

I must be reading the wrong thing as the closest thing I can see to anywhere being mentioned as getting a pasting in todays forecast by MT is "sleet over higher parts of west Munster and Connacht" tonight and you would be very well pushed to describe that as a pasting

lol sorry,I'm in West Munster myself, should be in line for a pasting.

I should have mentioned my location,and I'm up high too .

Danno

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sleet and snow risk has now transferred to the south Midlands. Temporary wet snow for a time. Wicklow getting some snowfall on high ground.

Nqp15hhu

iagreebut wrote: »

lol sorry,I'm in West Munster myself, should be in line for a pasting.

I should have mentioned my location,and I'm up high too .

Nobody is getting a pasting. It will just be wet snow.

Oneiric 3

I have zero interest in this from a snow perspective, but will be keeping an eye on the small potential for a sharp squall line feature to develop south of that shallow low that is expected to move up through the country later this evening: (blue circle indicates area where it would be more likely to develop if it were to)



At the small chance that it does, then east Munster, Leinster and later east Ulster would be most at risk.

Danno

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I have zero interest in this from a snow perspective, but will be keeping an eye on the small potential for a sharp squall line feature to develop south of that shallow low that is expected to move up through the country later this evening: (blue circle indicates area where it would be more likely to develop if it were to)



At the small chance that it does, then east Munster, Leinster and later east Ulster would be most at risk.

Looks good O3, there is certainly a good temperature contrast of between 7c and 9c at surface level that I've seen on the models over a very short distance, so it will be interesting to see if hammering rain turns to hammering wet snow happens quickly. Might stay up for it!

Donegal Ken

Latest UKV model run


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ULV2.png

UKV 1.png

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Kermit.de.frog

If this is going to turn it will start on high ground in the southwest. No sign as of yet.



Arpege and AROME going for some sleet and wet snow in the greater Dublin area later in the night and of course a few cms over the Wicklow mountains

Kermit.de.frog

You can see it starting to turn there on high ground now in the southwest on radar above as snow level is lowering on the western side of the front (and also Connemara).

Gaoth Laidir

Sleet at Kerry Airport

METAR EIKY 172100Z AUTO 33007KT 290V360 9999 -RASN FEW008/// BKN025/// OVC031/// 03/02 Q0990 RERASN=

Both Met Éireann and UKMO aviation charts for midnight give widespread rain, with snow only on mountains.

Oscar Bravo

Shannon airport 8 degrees at 8.30pm. 5 degrees at 9pm.

Nqp15hhu

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Sleet at Kerry Airport

METAR EIKY 172100Z AUTO 33007KT 290V360 9999 -RASN FEW008/// BKN025/// OVC031/// 03/02 Q0990 RERASN=

Both Met Éireann and UKMO aviation charts for midnight give widespread rain, with snow only on mountains.

The air might be ripe for evaporative cooling though. Today, where I am we had a rapid drop of 4c in the space of 25 minutes in a shower. So I wouldn't be surprised to see a relatively low rain-snow line.

You just need to ensure the warm front doesn't diverge too far west.

Its snowing in North kerry. 176m asl

Nqp15hhu

Rain-Snow line is forecasted to be 200 metres in the early morning hours. This could come down depending on the intensity of the precipitation and its duration.

giveitholly

Temperature dropping like a stone here Was 10.1c half an hour ago,down to 6.8c already

redsteveireland

Icey rain falling in Galway, you wouldn't notice really, only on the windscreen.

I'm only at about 50m ASL

kmoneill

Snowing away here for the last hour or more, East Kerry..

Kermit.de.frog

The DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Kerry) doing ok all things considered.

The ninja is strong in this one.

Nqp15hhu

I see a few stations down there are at 0c which is colder than predicted

Danno

Bit of a squall line from Omagh to Cork, I presume the triple point is the large clump from Ballyconnell to Ballybofey, warm front from Bofey across to Ballycastle.

kerrycork13

Beginning to stick here now in east kerry

Danno

kerrycork13 wrote: »

Beginning to stick here now in east kerry

Photos please, it could be the last lying snow of Winter 2020-21! :eek:

pauldry

kerrycork13 wrote: »

Beginning to stick here now in east kerry

Great stuff

Temps gone from 6 to 3.8c in Sligo.

cnocbui

kerrycork13 wrote: »

Beginning to stick here now in east kerry

Amazing. It's currently pouring rain in East Clare and 6° C in Nenagh.

Neddyusa

pauldry wrote: »

Great stuff

Temps gone from 6 to 3.8c in Sligo.

Dropped from 8 to 4C here in 15 mins