Australian Open 2021

walshb

What a damp squib...

Nole is not at or near his peak, but still these other younger players can’t break through..

I think Nole should be favorite in Paris.

Nadal second favorite..

I still think Nadal done now at 20!!!!

dominatinMC

walshb wrote: »

What a damp squib...

Nole is not at or near his peak, but still these other younger players can’t break through..

I think Nole should be favorite in Paris.

Nadal second favorite..

I still think Nadal done now at 20!!!!

One of the more ridiculous takes I've seen on Boards recently and that's saying something! We saw what happened at last years FO when an undercooked Nadal utterly destroyed Djokovic. Put aside the recency bias, Novak ain't winning the French again. Injury, followed by Thiem is a bigger threat to Nadal at that now.

Slashermcguirk

Djokovic hands down the greatest of all time for me. In full flow he is unstoppable, reasons for me he is the greatest:

Most weeks all time as world number one after next week
Only player in open era to win 4 slams in a row
Winning record against all his top rivals including Federer and Nadal
Only player to win golden masters (all masters series and he has done it twice)
3 Wimbledon final wins out of 3 against Federer (Feds favourite surface)
1 of only two players to beat Nadal at the French open
Most wins of any player vs Nadal on clay
Longest win streak of this generation (42 consecutive matches)
Most year end number ones (tied with Sampras)
Of his 18 slam wins he has had the toughest opponents in finals (of those 18 wins, 14 were against Federer, Nadal and Murray)
Best career win % on ATP tour along with Nadal
11-6 grand slam record vs Federer and is 9-1 since 2012!

I think he and Nadal will finish with the most slams but I think his share of slams is more even than Nadal which is so heavily towards the French open. It’s a close shout but I think Djokovic edges it

walshb

dominatinMC wrote: »

One of the more ridiculous takes I've seen on Boards recently and that's saying something! We saw what happened at last years FO when an undercooked Nadal utterly destroyed Djokovic. Put aside the recency bias, Novak ain't winning the French again. Injury, followed by Thiem is a bigger threat to Nadal at that now.

As Arnie would say: “I’ll be back.”

Roll on May-June!!!

Nole already has beaten Nadal in Paris..

Nadal is not winning RG this year!!!

dominatinMC

walshb wrote: »

As Arnie would say: “I’ll be back.”

Roll on May-June!!!

Nole already has beaten Nadal in Paris..

Nadal is not winning RG this year!!!

I dunno, this sounds more like wishful thinking than realistic prediction! Anyway, time will tell, but if I was a betting man, my money would be on Nadal getting 21 before Nole getting 19

walshb

dominatinMC wrote: »

I dunno, this sounds more like wishful thinking than realistic prediction! Anyway, time will tell, but if I was a betting man, my money would be on Nadal getting 21 before Nole getting 19

Nadal for me is looking ragged and jaded...

I’ll await your apology when it is not Nadal lifting the trophy..

josip

I can see Nadal winning another 4 or maybe 5 FOs. He won't win any other GS.
In a couple of years time, he'll probably not bother with too many of the other tournaments to preserve the joints and avoid injuries.
Djokovic will average the AO and one of the other GSs for a couple of years before being caught by the pack or injury takes him out.
His is a high intensity game and I can't see him keeping this going when he's 36.
So I think it will finish 24,22,20

walshb

walshb wrote: »

Nadal for me is looking ragged and jaded...

I’ll await your apology when it is not Nadal lifting the trophy..

Nadal has looked like a desiccated prune for a while now but he's still winning the French Open so far.

Augme

There's a huge amount of variables at pkay when it comes to how well Nadal and novak will do over the next year or two and a lot will come down to luck.

Aa good as novak looked this AO he has a great side of the draw and when he looked like he was struggling he came up against fairly poor quality players baring Zvererev, bit he's notoriously weak minded as well.

I think if Novak didn't or Nadal are taken to five sets before a final then that knock on effect on their performance will be significant. That's what the effects of age, it's doesn't have a huge impact on skill or talents levels but there's a massage drop off on the physical side of things.

There aren't many players who will take Nadal to 4 sets, let alone five, at roland garos. If he is drawn in the opposite of thiem and novak then it is very hard to see past him. Outside of those two players I wouldn't be confident of anyone else on tour taking a set off him on clay.

Slashermcguirk

I disagree, Novak had a very tough draw when you look at all rounds other than his semi. His first round opponent Chardy is ranked just outside top 50 as was his second round Tiafoe, Fritz was a seed, Raonic is ranked just outside top 10, Zverev is ranked 6. Karatsev was of course a good draw but he had knocked out seeds left right and centre with ease. If you take out Karatsev, the worst ranking of any player Djokovic faced was 60.

Medvedev first two opponents were ranked 65 and 97. His 4th round opponent is ranked 197!

Nadals opponents were ranked 56, 177, 69, 16, 7

The easy draw for Novak is another myth. He had the highest rank opponents on a consistent basis other than the semi

Augme wrote: »

There's a huge amount of variables at pkay when it comes to how well Nadal and novak will do over the next year or two and a lot will come down to luck.

Aa good as novak looked this AO he has a great side of the draw and when he looked like he was struggling he came up against fairly poor quality players baring Zvererev, bit he's notoriously weak minded as well.

I think if Novak didn't or Nadal are taken to five sets before a final then that knock on effect on their performance will be significant. That's what the effects of age, it's doesn't have a huge impact on skill or talents levels but there's a massage drop off on the physical side of things.

There aren't many players who will take Nadal to 4 sets, let alone five, at roland garos. If he is drawn in the opposite of thiem and novak then it is very hard to see past him. Outside of those two players I wouldn't be confident of anyone else on tour taking a set off him on clay.

lostcat

It was clear to me that Nadal really didn't want to go past 3 sets, which fed into his anxiety during that third set tiebreak against Tsitsipas.
However after last years FO, its hard to bet against him in Paris. Djokovic didn't look like he thought he could beat him in the final, cant see that changing in a couple of months.


One of the main outcomes for me from the AO is that I can now type 'Tsitsipas' without double checking the spelling, thanks to this thread. So, hat tip to Boards for that useful life skill

Slashermcguirk

I agree Nadal is a big favourite to win the French. However that win vs Djokovic in the final last year was a one off result. If you look at their other meetings at Roland Garros, they tend to go to 4 or 5 sets and once Novak even beat him. It’s a bit like when Djokovic similarly destroyed Nadal in the final in Australia in 2019, losing just 8 games in total.

I would see Nadal beating Novak in Australia almost as unlikely as Novak beating Nadal at the French. Both are so dominant on those courts. I think it Nadal meets Djoko in French final this year, it would more likely go to 4 or 5 sets but I would still fancy Nadal to win.

I think Djoko will be favourite to win Wimbledon, people can quickly forget he has won it 5 times and if he wins this year he is soon catching up with Sampras and Federer, imagine that !! I don’t see it happening but if he wins this year and moves to 6, it’s all to play for.

I also expect Novak to nick maybe one more US open, maybe not this year but i think he might win one more

Slashermcguirk

Interesting read on the GOAT debate

https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/56146799

josip

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Interesting read on the GOAT debate

https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/56146799

Which is why I can't ever see Djokovic ever catching Nadal.
Nadal has maintained the gap since 2017.

Hector Savage

That 1st set at least in FO final last year on paper looked a lot worse, most of the games went to deuce...

But still, was not expecting 3-0 and can't see Nadal not winning in Paris - at least for the next 2 years.

And it won't be Djokovic beating him there when it happens either.

Having said all that I can imagine after yesterdays win Goran and team would have had a sit down and said "ALL OUT FOR THE FRENCH ... it will be prioritised like nothing else this year" ..

Slashermcguirk

Yes but you also have to factor in that outside of the French open, Nadals odds of winning the other 3 slams are less favourable. I would consider Djokovic a bigger threat at Australian Open, Wimbledon and US open. I know that Nadal has won 4 US open but Djokovic tends to appear in the final more frequently as is overall a better hard court player. I think US open is the most open of all the slams and most likely to produce new winners from next gen players.

I just think Novak has a slight edge because he is the favourite in both oz and Wimbledon vs Nadal at just the french.

I still think it’s very touch and go and impossible to call but I think Nadal and Novak might end up on about 22. Federer could win another slam especially at Wimbledon but I don’t see him winning two more

josip wrote: »

Which is why I can't ever see Djokovic ever catching Nadal.
Nadal has maintained the gap since 2017.

yerwanthere123

To me it's almost inevitable that Djokovic will overtake both Federer and Nadal, and I think perhaps a lot of Federer/Nadal fans are almost in denial about it all. I think Nadal will win a minimum of 3 more RG, and I think he'll possibily win at least one more elsewhere, probably at the US Open. Djokovic isn't really showing any signs of slowing down, and he'll be the favourite at three of the four grand slams for the forseeable future. Keeping in mind that Djokovic could've possibly already been on 20 had pandemic/default not happened, his body will likely hold up better than Nadal's, and the fact he's a year younger, I think it's inevitable he'll overtake Nadal eventually. Nadal will likely finish on 23 imo, Djokovic probably 24/25.

Hector Savage

yerwanthere123 wrote: »

To me it's almost inevitable that Djokovic will overtake both Federer and Nadal, and I think perhaps a lot of Federer/Nadal fans are almost in denial about it all. I think Nadal will win a minimum of 3 more RG, and I think he'll possibily win at least one more elsewhere, probably at the US Open. Djokovic isn't really showing any signs of slowing down, and he'll be the favourite at three of the four grand slams for the forseeable future. Keeping in mind that Djokovic could've possibly already been on 20 had pandemic/default not happened, his body will likely hold up better than Nadal's, and the fact he's a year younger, I think it's inevitable he'll overtake Nadal eventually. Nadal will likely finish on 23 imo, Djokovic probably 24/25.

Nah Nadal on 23.
Djokovic tied with Federer on 20.

yerwanthere123

Hector Savage wrote: »

Nah Nadal on 23.
Djokovic tied with Federer on 20.

How do you think Djokovic is only winning only two more grand slams though? On what grounds? Not trying to cause an argument but just curious. He's won six of the last ten grand slams, would probably have been seven without the default.

josip

yerwanthere123 wrote: »

How do you think Djokovic is only winning only two more grand slams though? On what grounds? Not trying to cause an argument but just curious. He's won six of the last ten grand slams, would probably have been seven without the default.

It's Hector's coping strategy
He believes that if he says one thing, the gods will deliver the other.
He really wants Djoko to end up on the 23/24 and Nadal to stay stuck on 20.
But he's worried that if he says that, he'll hex it.
Not making fun of Hector for this, a lot of people talk down their own teams' chances before games.

yerwanthere123

josip wrote: »

It's Hector's coping strategy
He believes that if he says one thing, the gods will deliver the other.
He really wants Djoko to end up on the 23/24 and Nadal to stay stuck on 20.
But he's worried that if he says that, he'll hex it.
Not making fun of Hector for this, a lot of people talk down their own teams' chances before games.

I figured, but took the chance and decided to take him seriously

josip

yerwanthere123 wrote: »

I figured, but took the chance and decided to take him seriously

Sorry for undermining your attempt.
Hector, I'd also be interested if you could explain your thinking behind 2 more for Djokovic.
I'd agree with your Nadal estimate.

Girly Gal

Djokovic is likely to finish with most grand slams, as he is favourite to win 3 of the 4 slams and probably 3rd favourite for the FO, Nadal is obviously strong favourite for the FO and among the top 2/3 challengers to Djokovic in the other slams. Federer only has an outside chance of winning another GS, so is likely to stay on 20. I think Nadal will win no more than 2 more FO and unlikely to win a GS outside of there, to leave him on 22. That leaves Djokovic probably getting to 23 to the end of season 2023. I think at that point they will no longer be able to hold back the next generation and are unlikely to win anymore slams. Of course all the above depends on them staying relatively fit and in reasonable form for the slams and of course that none of the younger guys emerges as a serious contender
at GS level in the next year or so.

lostcat

yerwanthere123 wrote: »

... I think Nadal will win a minimum of 3 more RG, and I think he'll possibily win at least one more elsewhere, probably at the US Open.....

was going to challenge this, but on reflection, really only Thiem from the rest of the field is a clay court specialist, the rest are hard-courters.
And Thiem, i'm afraid, looks to lack that killer instinct.
So either Djokovic manages to beat him somewhere along the line in Paris, or no one does..

The only thing I would say is I don't think Nadal will play for 3 more years.

yerwanthere123

I think Nadal and Djokovic will both likely play on until they're near 40. Why not? Federer is, Serena and Venus are (yes different tours/circumstances I know), the sport is continuing to get older. People have been writing Nadal off for the bones of ten years or so, his game is too taxing on the body, his knees will give in etc. Maybe the older they get the more they'll struggle, but with finely tuned schedules catered towards their strengths/best events and sheer will to end with the most grand slams, they'll drive on as long as they can. As long as Djokovic is winning in Melbourne, Nadal in Paris and both are still going deep in the other slams then they're not retiring imo.

walshb

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Interesting read on the GOAT debate

https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/56146799

Great read...

So much to consider... no clear GOAT

So, for me it comes down to tennis beauty/genius/effortlessness and skills with a tennis racquet. Bit like Ronnie in snooker, it’s Roger in tennis. Nobody ever did it better...

Of the criteria in the article, the one that kind of stood out for me was Nole being the only man to win ALL masters 1000 titles.....

john9876

The French open is going to be huge. Nadal has to win it to have any chance of staying in the race with Novak.
Imagine a final between the two of them.
Nadal and Federer had a 4 & 5 year start before Novak won his first slam. I'm sure he's thinking he'll have 4/5 years without them at the end of his career.
Fortunately for him there doesn't seem to be another obvious challenger on the horizon.

dominatinMC

john9876 wrote: »

The French open is going to be huge. Nadal has to win it to have any chance of staying in the race with Novak.
Imagine a final between the two of them.
Nadal and Federer had a 4 & 5 year start before Novak won his first slam. I'm sure he's thinking he'll have 4/5 years without them at the end of his career.
Fortunately for him there doesn't seem to be another obvious challenger on the horizon.

It's always the same after Djokovic wins the AO, everybody talks up his chances of winning the FO - which he has won a grand total of once. The final last year was a beat down, as it has been any time Nadal has played Djokovic on clay in the last few years. Thiem and/or injury is not the biggest threat to Nadal at the FO but, realistically, he's more of a favourite now at that competition than he was 10 years ago.

whiterebel

How can there be an article like that without considering Laver, Emerson and Rosewall? If Laver was at his peak when he was banned from the Slams, how many of those 20 would he have won to add to his 11? Also had 8 doubles slams. Emerson had 16 doubles slams to add to the 12 singles. McEnroe had 9 doubles to go with his 7 singles slams, but limited to US and Wimbledon, couldn't win FO. Won his last slam at 25. Borg had 11 between FO and Wimbledon, couldn't win the US in 4 attempts and didn't bother with Australia like Mac. Retired at 26.
Fed was chasing Connor's record of 109 singles titles, yet Laver has closer to 200.
There seems to be a concerted effort in the media to ignore anything before the Open era. Davis Cup seemed a lot more important in the 70s and 80s, and there were quite a few banned for playing in different tours. It seems to be one of the most difficult sports to judge, because of the various upheavals down through the years.

Augme

yerwanthere123 wrote: »

I think Nadal and Djokovic will both likely play on until they're near 40. Why not? Federer is, Serena and Venus are (yes different tours/circumstances I know), the sport is continuing to get older. People have been writing Nadal off for the bones of ten years or so, his game is too taxing on the body, his knees will give in etc. Maybe the older they get the more they'll struggle, but with finely tuned schedules catered towards their strengths/best events and sheer will to end with the most grand slams, they'll drive on as long as they can. As long as Djokovic is winning in Melbourne, Nadal in Paris and both are still going deep in the other slams then they're not retiring imo.

Fed and Serena are only there to chase records. I get the sense venus is only there to help her sister chase the records. If Serena has broken courts record two years ago I don't think there rid any chance she would still be in tour.

If fed was sitting 5 behind in the GS race I don't think he'd be on the tour either. He's prbnaly desperately hoping to win one more and praying that will be enough to at least share the accolade when Nadal and novak hang it up too.