The wondrous adventures of Sinn Fein (part 3) Mod Notes and Threadbanned List in OP

rolling boh

A border poll anytime soon would result in a clear no to unity no chance it would pass .Sf had a good election but nowhere near good enough to get a united Ireland still more Unionists up there . If there was a poll that would be it for a long time not be the same as down south i e have a poll then have another one until the result is what the government wanted in the first place .

touts

If you take a look at the breakdown for a United Ireland based on the party support

Pro United Ireland

SF 29.0%

SDLP: 9.1%

AÚ: 1.5%

That's 39.6%. and I suspect some of the SDLP vote is soft on a United Ireland if the economic conditions are not 100% right.

Against United Ireland

DUP: 21.3%

UUP: 11.2%

TUV: 7.6%

That's 40.1% and nothing soft about it.

So on paper all to play for. But when you look at the other votes things become clearer

That leaves

ALL: 13.5% Traditionally more unionist than nationalist. Maybe 2/1 split

GP: 1.9%. Cross community issue and cross community support especially among the young. Say 50/50 split. 1% each in effect

PBP: 1.1% probably more nationalist than unionist. Let's say that all goes to the Pro United Ireland.

So we now have

Pro United Ireland a soft 39.6+4.5+1.1+1 = 46.2

Against United Ireland. A fairly hard-line 40.1+9+1 = 50.1

Even if all the vote for independents etc broke for pro United Ireland (which it won't) a border poll still gets beaten. Probably by something around 47 to 53 on the day.

Sinn Fein should be very careful what they wish for in calling for a border poll ASAP. The DUP just might give it to them now to have the issue taken off the table for a couple of decades.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119028311#Comment_119028311

Not everyone who votes SF,SDLP and obviously a good chunk of Alliance voters would vote yes to a UI

There are those who vote with their pockets

Taxes are higher in Dublin

Not just income tax

If you get shares in the company you work for in Dublin,you pay 33% tax on them after a pithy 1200 euro allowance (2400 if married)

Up north,the allowance is a whopping £12300 stg or about €15000 euros-€30,000 if married

The rate is a much more palatable 20%

On property its 28%

Its 33% down here

Rates/property tax annually is 2 to 5% of valuation so a minus but far from cancelling things out

notsocutehoor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027591#Comment_119027591

Sinn Fein would be batsh1t crazy to push for a border poll now (and SF are not batsh1t crazy) when they would be guaranteed to lose it, they will keep it on the back burner until they have a good chance of winning it, Scotland will have voted again before NI does and if Scotland go for independence and it works out then the time may be opportune for a NI poll. My (wild) guess would be 10 years from now.

touts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119028660#Comment_119028660

Indeed. That's the problem Sinn Fein have. They are boxing themselves into a corner calling for a border poll which even if every SF and SDLP and PBP voter supported it they would still lose. And when those voters have to put their money where their mouth is it is likely they will go soft in the privacy of the ballot box without the local Sinn Fein enforcers watching.

It's the DUP who should be calling for a poll to finish the reunification question for a generation.

It wouldn't finish it for a generation

15yr olds today would be in their 30s

But Economically, Dublin has to compete with British rule

Tax cannot go high

Charrychar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119028755#Comment_119028755

Nonsense, support for Scottish independence was at no more than 30 percent according to all the polls before a referendum was called and it almost passed.

Opinions change drastically once we actually get down to the debate.

notsocutehoor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119029681#Comment_119029681

I just don't understand why you would label my post nonsense and then go on to post this VERIFIABLE NONSENSE 'support for Scottish independence was at no more than 30 percent according to all the polls before a referendum was called'.

The Unionist family has just over 40% of the vote in the North right now. 99.999% of those would almost certainly oppose a United Ireland. There would almost certainly be well in excess of 10% of the voters in the other parties who would also oppose it, there may even be some Sinn Fein voters who would vote against (on economic grounds) it in the privacy of the ballot box. There will be one shot at this (probably for a generation), that needs to be a realistic chance of it being carried, anything else would be foolhardy and irresponsible. I would love to see a United Ireland in my lifetime, I am hoping to hang around for another 10/20 years. In the meantime, a discussion on what a 'United Ireland' might look like is the best we can hope for. JMHO.

jm08

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119029630#Comment_119029630

From what I've heard being said (by MLMD) is that they want a border referendum in the next 5-10 years, but the Irish Gov. needs to start preparing for it with for example a Citizen's Assembly now so as not to end up with the Brexit poll resulted in.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119029630#Comment_119029630

Sinn Féin have problems?

Good Christ is that where we are at for Partitionism, that Sinn Féin can't win a vote tomorrow thus, they're failures.

Catch on.

TheRepentent

There is something about Sinn Fein that I don't like. Not sure what but FF , FG , Labour , PBP etc. don't trigger me 😂

bricksNDmortar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030589#Comment_119030589

It’s called bitterness don’t worry it will subside.

TheRepentent

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030614#Comment_119030614

nah it's not bitterness....there's something off about them. They are a bit scrotty (is that even a word?) and seem locked into being in opposition and scoring points without any basis in governing.

malk518

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030631#Comment_119030631

Ffg seem locked in to power without any governance. Law onto themselves. SF long overdue a chance.

Brendan Bendar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030734#Comment_119030734

I would t like any Govt backed up by thugs in white shirts and black ties.

mikethecop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031443#Comment_119031443

using the current Russians tactic of screaming racist at anyone who opposites their total power eh , nice move .

you know being disgusted by the quasi terrorist organized crime group that is sfira isnt the same as supporting any other government party.but it is just used to deflect and derail threads here as per the auld sfira party playbook

Snickers Man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031443#Comment_119031443

Ah yes. The Blueshirts, which became a constituent part of Fine Gael.

But what was so terrible about the Blueshirts? What did they do that was so bad?

Well. They had straight arm salutes, and military style uniforms and they were piously conservative and catholic, and some of them went to fight for Franco in the Spanish Civil War but when the really BIG war with Fascism came, it was the leader of Fine Gael (Blueshirt! Blueshirt! Blueshirt!) who wanted Ireland to join the war AGAINST Hitler whereas it was the IRA who cosied up to the Nazis and provided them with analysis, promises of support if they only provided the weapons and also gave them valuable intelligence and propaganda support (Francis Stuart and the sainted Frank Ryan).

So take the log out of your provo eye before you cast aspersions on what other people were doing 90 years ago.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032311#Comment_119032311

Their heroic leader,oduffy,was recruiting to help the nazis on eastern front in 1942....theres a reason,coverage/discussion of em isnt allowed in media here nowadays

Snickers Man

I am a democrat and a believer in honouring the electoral process and the constitutional arrangements under which it operates. So I have to accept that the gruesome element in Irish nationalism is in the ascendant in Northern Ireland. And may well be so in the south before too long. But just because they have become the largest single party doesn't mean we have to like the bastards.

On the contrary, we have to be ever more vigorous about holding them to account not just for what they say and do but what they actually mean. Reading between the lines and demanding answers to questions that, in the words of one of yesteryear's men "haven't gone away you know"

So let's have a look through some of the anomalies. At first sight, Sinn Fein seems to be a reincarnation of the Women's Coalition. A female overall leader, a female in charge of the party in the "Northern Entity" and 15 out of the 27 elected MLAs are women. Is this a fair representation of where the power lies in the party?

First question: how many women are on the Army Council of the IRA?

And already I can feel the eyebrows rising and the teeth tutting. "Oh God, I bet he's a QANON fan" But the difference between QANON and the Army Council is that the latter exists. Doesn't it?

Would any newly elected MLA care to give a categorical assurance that the AC is no longer in existence and has no influence over the party? Or will they fob us off with "Completely different organisation. We have no contact with it any more. Put that question to military men, not me."

Will they assure us that the notion that the "army" as an independent body, entirely autonomous and not bound to any sort of political control whatsoever has been discontinued and continue to provide reassurance when events come to mind that suggest that it really hasn't, as time moves on? Because to do so would be a departure from long held principle and risk a split in the wider movement where a large element has always insisted on "the independence of the army". I suspect that tendency, which is extremely powerful, is dominated by men. And hard ones too.

Don't get me wrong. I have no problem with able women rising to positions of authority in whatever field they operate, including politics. But this surfeit of ladies in the supposed corridors of power is an illusion or even a delusion. They're trying to pull the wool over our eyes with their "Look at us! We're all wile nice housewives and hairdressers and special needs assistants. None of us even knows what a balaclava is. You can trust us!"

Not buying it.

Next question: do we really need a Border Poll? Personally, I think it could be disastrous and were it to result in a reaffirmation of partition (likely) it might present the hardline Unionists, not to mention the TOries, with a golden opportunity to put in place what they clearly really want (although they talk out the sides of their mouths on the issue) which is a "hard border on the island". This would get the unionists off the hook of the Protocol, which they do despise, and give succour to the ultranationalist Hard Brexit tendency which would relish the opportunity of "Standing up to Brussels".

The simple fact is, even with Sinn Fein's surge (which as the figures show was not that particularly strong anyway) and the implosion of the DUP, there are still more affirmed Unionist that Nationalist MLAs in Stormont. Look at the figures: 35 from avowedly nationalist parties (27 SF and 8 SDLP) as against 34 from avowedly Unionist parties (25 DUP and 9 UUP). The Non-aligned Alliance party has 17 MLAs but who are the remaining four?

Well, one is a lefty "neither orange nor green" from People before Profit but the other three are all some shade of Unionist from pastel pink to deepest orange. Claire Sugden (independent Unionist) might be a main stream liberal on social matters, in sharp contrast to the "Political Wing of the Old TEstament" that is the DUP but she is nothing but staunch on the basic Unionist position. So too is Alex Easton another independent and the remaining seat is our old friend Jim Allister and his Traditional Unionist Voice, which basically is only capable of saying "Not an Inch!" and "No Surrender!".

Those three Unionists, allied with DUP and UUP make a slightly larger Unionist than Nationalist bloc. And there are plenty of non aligned alliance voters who would likewise be reluctant to vote for a border poll.

I suspect that the contradictions at the heart of SF will become apparent fairly soon. Hopefully before they do too much damage.

mikethecop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032360#Comment_119032360

o even with out raising russian or kinihan issues we can be a lot more recent in the suspect activities of sfira ,(given that this is a sf thread) post GFA even

Colombia grants amnesty to alleged IRA bomb-making trio | Colombia | The Guardian

notsocutehoor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032497#Comment_119032497

Ornithologists, unless I'm mistaken

notsocutehoor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032311#Comment_119032311

I'm not sure where you're getting the 'provo eye' from, I presume anybody who challenges the stupid waffle posted here must be a 'provo', yea? My father and grandfather were blueshirts, don't think they wore the shirt, did the funny walk or gave the straight armed salute or any of that funny stuff but they were true blueshirts all their lives.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032360#Comment_119032360

What coverage do you really hope to see of someone who was a has-been by 1934 when people can barely remember pre-2000?

notsocutehoor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032311#Comment_119032311

Oliver J - in 1943 urging the government to emulate the Nazis and "rout the Jews out of this country.. where the bees are there is honey, and where the Jews are there is money"

notsocutehoor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031628#Comment_119031628

You're a funny guy Mike, 'screaming racist' is that what you're suggesting my post was, I suspect you are not in the detective unit Mike.

mikethecop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032786#Comment_119032786

Ornithologists hunting perhaps ......

notsocutehoor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032797#Comment_119032797

That might be more like it, although if you're gathering of evidence as displayed above is anything to go by they are likely to have long since flown the nest before you have deciphered the 'evidence'.

mikethecop

lol sure will they not be on government junkets now instead of bird watch trips as they help to bomb other country's into the fold weather they like it or not

notsocutehoor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032450#Comment_119032450

Answer to question 1: 9

Were there more questions

Brendan Bendar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031443#Comment_119031443

Haven’t see them on the streets,my friend.

Will revert to you when I see them.