February 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for Feb 2021, the 1981-2010 average is 5.3 C. The IMT is the average monthly temperature for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon.

2. Predict the MAX for Feb 2021 based on daily extremes at 25 regularly reporting locations on the met.ie website.

3. Predict the MIN for Feb 2021 based on daily extremes at 25 regularly reporting locations on the met.ie website.

4. Predict the PRC for Feb 2021 based on percentage of normal Feb precip at eleven locations, the five mentioned in part 1 above, plus Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Cork, Johnstown Castle and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN for Feb 2021 based on percentage of normal Feb sunshine at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia.

6. BONUS: Predict the lowest daily maximum temperature for the month, and the location (date not required).

Normal values __ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 3.0

M.T. Cranium ___ 4.2 _ 15.7 _ -9.2 _ 070 _ 110 ___ -1.0 Markree


Deadline for entries 0300h Monday 1st Feb then one point for every six hours or portion, to 1500h Tuesday 2nd, after which one point per hour would be deducted.

Good luck !

pauldry

Pauldry ___ 4.1 _ 15 _ -8.2 _ 079 _ 105___ -2 Ballyhaise

Bsal

Bsal __ 3.9 _ 14.0 _ -10.0 _ 110 _ 107 ___ -1.0 Mount Dillon

Danno

Danno ___ 1.7__ 11.9 _ -14.2 _ 085 _ 175___ -4.0 Ballyhaise

dasa29

Dasa29 ___ 4.5__ 11.5 _ -8.0 _ 105 _ 115___ -2.0 Mullingar

eon1208

5.0, 15.9, -6.2, 119, 96, 0.5 - Mullingar.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ___ 3.6__ 14.2 _ -7.2 _ 096 _ 110___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

John mac

john mac__ 5.0 _ 12.5 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 106 ___ 2.2 Markree castle

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 5.00 ___ 14.4 ___ -7.0 ___ 110 ___ 95 ___ 0.0 Markree Castle.

WesternStorm

WesternStorm ___ 4.8 ___ 14.5 ___ -6.0 ___ 105 ___ 98 ___ 0.0 Knock Airport

Gonzo

Gonzo ___ 2.9 _ 15.9 _ -12.8 _ 072 _ 112___ -2.4 Ballyhaise

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ___ 4.7 _ 15.1 _ -5.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 0.8 Knock

CirrusBusiness

CirrusBusiness___4.7__14.2__-9.3__80__105__-1.3 Ballyhaise

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall___4.4____14.4___-7.2____83____91___-0.8 Ballyhaise

Jpmarn

Jpmarn __ 4.8_ 14.8_ -7.8 _ 115 _ 110 ___ -0.8 Knock Airport

waterways

waterways __ 4.7_ 14.5 _ -9.5 _ 95 _ 107 ___ 0.6 Mount Dillon

appledrop

appledrop__4.3__14.0__-5.8__110__100__1.8 Knock

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ____ 4.9_ 14.3 _ -8.0 _ 84 _ 108 ___ 0.4 Ballyhaise

dacogawa

Dacogawa ___ 4.4 _ 14.1 _ -8.7 _ 105 _ 100__ -2.2 Ballyhaise

Joe Public

Joe Public ___ 4.0 _ 13.9 _ -8.1 _ 85 _ 121 ___ -2.1 Casement

Artane2002

Artane2002__ 4.3 _ 15.8 _ -7.0_ 085 _ 110 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

this is probably the most difficult one so far for me hence why I left it till the last minute!

appledrop

Artane2002 wrote: »

Artane2002__ 4.3 _ 15.8 _ -7.0_ 085 _ 110 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

this is probably the most difficult one so far for me hence why I left it till the last minute!

I'm the same Artane, I'm looking at everyone else min monthly score compared to mine and wondering if they know something I don't!

mrskinner

Skinner____4.9____13.9____-7.9____79____109____0.9 Markree

adam240610

adam240610 ____4.6__14.8__-6.9__101__122__0.1__Ballyhaise

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7___ 1.3__ 14.3 _ -13.7 _ 080 _ 170___ -4.7 Ballyhaise

SleetAndSnow

SleetAndSnow ___ 3.4 _ 14.6 _ -11.2 _ 87 _ 103___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

Tazio

Tazio ___ 3.0 _ 12.0 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 125___ -5.5 Cork Airport

200motels

200motels 4.5 _ 15.3 _ -7.3 _ 091 _ 102 ___ 0.7 Knock

sunflower3

Sunflower3___ 3.2_ 13.5_ -6.8 _ 80 _ 95___ -2.4 Ballyhaise

Funsterdelux

Funsterdelux___ 3.7_ 15_ -8.5 _ 90 _ 96.4___ -1.7 Mullingar

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts -- February 2021


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max, loc'n


___ NormaL __________ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ +3.0 (loc'n by climat)


Eon1208 _____________ 5.0 _ 15.9 _ -6.2 _ 119 _ 096 ___ +0.5 Mullingar

Kindred Spirit _________ 5.0 _ 14.4 _ -7.0 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 0.0 Markree

john mac _____________5.0 _ 12.5 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 106 ___ +2.2 Markree

Tae laidir _____________4.9 _ 14.3 _ -8.0 _ 084 _ 108 ___ +0.4 Ballyhaise

MrSkinner ____________ 4.9 _ 13.9 _ -7.9 _ 079 _ 109 ___ +0.9 Markree

WesternStorm _________4.8 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 105 _ 098 ____ 0.0 Knock

Jpmarn ______________ 4.8 _ 14.8 _ -7.8 _ 115 _ 110 ___ -0.8 Knock

sryanbruen ___________ 4.7 _ 15.1 _ -5.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ +0.8 Knock

waterways ____________4.7 _ 14.5 _ -9.5 _ 095 _ 107 ___ +0.6 Mount Dillon

CirrusBusiness ________ 4.7 _ 14.2 _ -9.3 _ 080 _ 105 ___ -1.3 Ballyhaise

adam240610 __________4.6 _ 14.8 _ -6.9 _ 101 _ 122 ___ +0.1 Ballyhaise

200motels _____ (-3) ___4.5 _ 15.3 _ -7.3 _ 091 _ 102 ___ +0.7 Knock

Dasa29 ______________ 4.5 _ 11.5 _ -8.0 _ 105 _ 115 ___ -2.0 Mullingar

Mr stonewall __________ 4.4 _ 14.4 _ -7.2 _ 083 _ 091 ___ -0.8 Ballyhaise

Dacogawa ____________ 4.4 _ 14.1 _ -8.7 _ 105 _ 100 ___ -2.2 Ballyhaise


___ Con Sensus _______ 4.4 _ 14.4 _ -7.5 _ 090 _ 106 ___ -1.0


Artane2002 ___________ 4.3 _ 15.8 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

appledrop ____________ 4.3 _ 14.0 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ +1.8 Knock

M.T. Cranium __________4.2 _ 15.7 _ -9.2 _ 070 _ 110 ___ -1.0 Markree

Pauldry ______________ 4.1 _ 15.0 _ -8.2 _ 079 _ 105 ___ -2.0 Ballyhaise

Joe Public ____________ 4.0 _ 13.9 _ -8.1 _ 085 _ 121 ___ -2.1 Casement

Bsal _________________3.9 _ 14.0 _-10.0_ 110 _ 107 ___ -1.0 Mount Dillon

Funsterdelux ___ (-4) ___3.7 _ 15.0 _ -8.5 _ 090 _ 096 ___ -1.7 Mullingar

DOCARCH ____________ 3.6 _ 14.2 _ -7.2 _ 096 _ 110 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

SleetAndSnow __(-2)____3.4 _ 14.6 _-11.2_ 087 _ 103 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

Sunflower3 ____ (-3) ___ 3.2 _ 13.5 _ -6.8 _ 080 _ 095 ___ -2.4 Ballyhaise

Tazio _________ (-2) ___3.0 _ 12.0 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 125 ___ -5.5 Cork Airport

Gonzo _______________ 2.9 _ 15.9 _-12.8_ 072 _ 112 ___ -2.4 Ballyhaise

Danno _______________ 1.7 _ 11.9 _-14.2_ 085 _ 175 ___ -4.0 Ballyhaise

BLIZZARD7 ___________ 1.3 _ 14.3 _-13.7_ 080 _ 170 ___ -4.7 Ballyhaise

________________________________________________________

29 forecasts to this point, all are below the February average IMT ... shades of Dec 2010.

Con Sensus is the median value, 15th ranked ... will change slightly if any further entries are
received.

For low max location, the count of stations suggested is

Ballyhaise _____ 13 ___ Con Sensus scores 3 if correct

Knock _________ 5 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

Markree ________4 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

Mullingar _______ 3 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

Mount Dillon ____ 2 ___ Con Sensus scores 1 if correct

Cork, Casement _ 1 each Con Sensus scores 1 if correct

all others _______ -- ___ Con Sensus scores 0 if correct

(Normal scores 3 for any of the above that got 2+ votes, 2 or 1 by climatology otherwise)

Your score will be based on the order (1st, 2nd, 3rd) of the low max at the location you selected.

Any qualifiers that occur at other stations will be disregarded in that part of the scoring, but counted for

the 7/10 portion related to the temperature value. Superbonus of 1 or 2 available on this one.

Tae laidir

Yesterday's Min Max 3.0 at Knock.
Should be broken today!

M.T. Cranium

Yes, the intention will be to maintain a log of 1-2-3 cold max values from today on, people are welcome to take this on but I will be checking the numbers and upgrading any reports that appear if they don't show the updated 1-2-3 (if they are up to the contest standard then I will just thank the post and move on). If a station produces a second or third value that ranks 1-2-3, ignore it as the objective is to determine the first, second and third ranking locations, not the first, second and third ranking values (e.g., Knock could hold all three after three days colder than anywhere else, but we still need to know what location got to the second coldest extreme and third coldest for scoring).

Meanwhile, here's a summary of first week stats ... as always courtesy of a little outfit known as Met E.

IMT was 5.8 which was about 0.7 above normal (Casement did not appear in the ag summary for some reason, but is available in monthly data, their anomaly estimated).

MAX has been at least 11.4 (I looked back at a few likely locations once I realized the cold spells might prevent the early weak candidates from being overtaken, if 11.4 holds then we'll be needing minimum progression for scoring).

MIN has not been tracked with the colder spell looming, until today I don't think there have been any sub-zero mins.

PRC has been approx 140% (it was apparently missing rainfall data that kept Casement out of the ag summary as their monthly reads n/a). I checked daily values and compared with Dublin, all the values are there so I'm not sure what issue kept Casement from getting a total or a spot in the ag summary. The total was a little lower (mostly on the wettest day, the 2nd) so I estimated Casement at 200% compared to 235 for Dublin.

SUN has been around 44% of normal (est Casement 30% based on all daily values and comparison to Dublin again). Only Cork managed to reach normal, everywhere else was even cloudier than the average (Johnstown Castle which we don't use was 63%).

The low max will be tracked starting today.

M.T. Cranium

Monday 8th (low max)

1. Knock 1.7

2. Cork 2.3

3. Casement 2.5

(low min now -1.6 Gurteen)

appledrop

Tuesday 9th Low Max:

1.Knock 1.5

Then we have Dublin, Cork, Dunsany and Mullingar all tied on 1.9 in 2nd place!

New Min -2.2 Knock on 9th although I'd say last night will be colder when stats come in.

appledrop

New min of -4.2 at Mt Dillion on 10th.

No change to Low Max but its a cold one out there today so it could change again by tomorrow!

appledrop

Low Max Scores:

1. Knock 1.4, 11th

2. Casement 1.8 11th

3.Dublin, Cork, Dunsany, Mullingar 1.9- 9th & Athenry Ballyhaise 1.9 on 11th!

M.T don't know how your going to score 3rd if it stays like this!

Thanks for a brilliant bonus question M.T I've enjoyed tracking it all week.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks, I agree with your list, scoring for all those tied third (if they hold up) would be one out of three points to anyone who chose any of them as their location, Con scores two and Normal scores three for Knock.

The four closest to 1.4 score seven out of seven available and then groups of three to seven take the rest of the points, with groups determined by similar errors.

So unless there's another cold spell the current points would look like this (s.b. is superbonus) :

Temp pts _ Forecaster (fcst) __ loc'n s.b. __ TOTAL

7 pts __ Appledrop (+1.8) ____ 3 + 2 _____ 12
_______MrSkinner (+0.9) ____ 0 _________ 7
_______sryanbruen (+0.8) ___ 3 + 2 _____ 12
_______200motels (+0.7) ____ 3 + 2 _____ 12

6 pts __ waterways (+0.6) ____ 0 _________ 6
_______ John mac (+2.2) _____0 _________ 6
_______ Eon1208 (+0.5) _____ 1 _________ 7
_______ Tae laidir (+0.4) _____ 1 _________ 7

5 pts __ Adam062410 (+0.1) __ 1 _________ 6
_______ Western Storm (0.0) __3 _________ 8
_______ Kindred Spirit (0.0) ___0 _________ 5
__________ NormaL (3.0) _____3 _________ 8

4 pts __ JPmarn (-0.8) ________3 _________7
_______ Mr stonewall (-0.8) ___ 1 _________5
__________ Con sensus (-1.0) _ 2 _________6
_______ M.T. Cranium (-1.0) ___0 _________4
_______ Bsal (-1.0) __________ 0 ________ 4

3 pts ___DOCARCH (-1.2) _____ 1 ________ 4
_______ SleetAndSnow (-1.2) __ 1 ________ 4
_______ Artane2002 (-1.2) ____ 1 ________ 4
_______ Cirrus business (-1.3) _ 1 ________ 4

2 pts __ Funsterdelux (-1.7) ____1 ________ 3
_______dasa29 (-2.0) ________ 1 ________ 3
_______ Pauldry (-2.0) _______ 1 ________ 3
_______ Joe Public (-2.1) _____ 2 ________ 4
_______ dacogawa (-2.4) _____ 1 ________ 3
_______ Sunflower3 (-2.4) ____ 1 ________ 3
_______ Gonzo (-2.4) ________ 1 ________ 3

1 pt ___ Danno (-4.0) ________ 1 ________ 2
_______ BLIZZARD7 (-4.7) ____ 1 ________ 2
_______ Tazio (-5.5) _________ 1 ________ 2

__________________________________________

One other contest note of interest, the IMT is currently on 4.1 and if today's mean were to come in at 2.0, that would make it 3.9, possibly the low point for the month?

appledrop

The station that surprised me for low max was Athenry. I was tracking it yesterday and at one stage it was looking like it would over take Knock.

All the others in top three like Ballyhaise, Mullingar etc were stations most of us guessed that are usually colder than normal but not that one.

Tae laidir

Snow in the West.

appledrop

New Max 12.4 on 13th Valentia.

Today and tomorrow looking very mild so I'd say we will have a new Max of 13 or 14 degrees.

DOCARCH

Max of 13.9c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

By looks of forecasts, should see higher somewhere in the next week.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT back up to 4.4 with the second week average 3.0 which was 2.4 below normal for the week.

MAX 13.9 and MIN -4.2

PRC is now at 116% with the second week registering 93% of normal, Cork had a significant surplus and a few other places were rather dry.

SUN remains well below normal at about 50%. The second week average was 54.5% (327/600) and Cork only 7% while Belmullet had more than their normal amount.

Low max contest scoring is shown in previous post (unless we get another cold spell that alters any of the locations or the current low max of 1.4).

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT has soared to 5.6 C with this past week 8.1 which was 2.6 above normal. This could edge up towards 5.9 or 6.0 for a finish (which will bring in our good friend minimum progression).

MAX still 13.9 and MIN -4.2

PRC now at 157% of normal with this past week 240% of normal, heaviest in the south. With the expected deluge coming, this could finish up around 200%.

SUN has improved to 77% with the past week rather bright despite all the rain, at 132% (792/600). This may finish as high as 85% with today getting some sun and more expected later in the week.

appledrop

New Max 14.6 Phoneix Park on 23rd.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for posting that Appledrop, I came in today thinking I had better check the data from yesterday but probably one of the crew would have checked it earlier and for the first time this month I was right (well it's not quite that bad but we are all looking at the IMT finishing very likely above average where we all went below from those robust cold signals earlier -- the cold came and went, this response was perhaps inevitable in the current climatic regime, shows once again how unusual months like Dec 2010 and Mar 2013 have become).

By the way, after 23 days the IMT has increased further to 5.9. I estimate it might touch 6.0 after today's data then could drift down slightly from Thursday to Sunday, where the estimated average might be 5.0 so that the outcome is most likely to be 5.9 again.

As to the impact of the two day rainfall 22nd-23rd, that appears to have given us the guarantee of an outcome at 140% of normal (which is based on current totals vs monthly averages) and that means we are actually now at 150% of the normal amount to this date, then adding in what's likely to be the totals for today, and estimates for tomorrow, those won't move the meter very much so I would speculate the outcome may be near 145% of normal values for PRC.

That means PRC will also be scored off minimum progression as our wettest forecast was 119% (Eon1208 can look forward to the max points).

Unless there is wall to wall sunshine Friday to Sunday the SUN stat is unlikely to be dragged upwards very far from current estimate of 75%. Our lowest forecast there was 91% (Mr Stonewall) so that also appears destined for slightly boosted scoring. With our general consensus for significant cold many of us overestimated how deep into the negative realm the MIN could go, seems unlikely that these coming cooler nights will move the current lacklustre -4.2 that the cold spell provided. This will also need some help from our friend Minimum Progression, sryanbruen (-5.3) and John mac (-5.5) were at least in the general vicinity but not close enough to thwart the full application (raw scores for them would be 11 and 8 out of 20).

The only element that seems to be scorable without intervention is MAX where the con sensus value is 14.4, Sleet and Snow hit the current value right on and several were 0.1 out.

I could score the contest right now given all of these factoids but will hold off to see if anything changes. Will open up the March contest tomorrow evening or at least have it ready for Friday morning.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks, more or less the final data for February (to be checked against Monthly Summary) ...

IMT finished on 6.1 C, fourth week average was 7.5 (1.6 above normal).

MAX 14.6 and MIN -4.2

PRC finished around 146% with the fourth week average at 115% of normal.

SUN finished about 97.5% of normal with the fourth week at 159% (956/600).

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

After four weeks, more or less the final data for February (to be checked against Monthly Summary) ...

IMT finished on 6.1 C, fourth week average was 7.5 (1.6 above normal).

MAX 14.6 a

nd MIN -4.2

PRC finished around 146% with the fourth week average at 115% of normal.

SUN finished about 97.5% of normal with the fourth week at 159% (956/600).

I should be good for ~ 10 points

M.T. Cranium

Validation from MS and direct from climate data,

IMT _ 6.1 ... MAX _ 14.6 ... MIN _ -4.2 ... PRC _ 148% ... SUN _ 102%

Scoring for February 2021


FORECASTER _________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus ____ TOTAL



Kindred Spirit _________ 23*_ 18 _ 15*_ 12*_ 09 ___ 05 _____ 82

WesternStorm _________18*_ 19 _ 17*_ 10*_ 09 ___ 08 _____ 81

Eon1208 _____________ 23*_ 07 _ 16*_ 14*_ 09 ___ 07 _____ 76

Jpmarn ______________ 18*_ 18 _ 12*_ 13*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 76

sryanbruen ___________ 16*_ 15 _ 19*_ 04*_ 10 ___ 12 _____ 76


___ NormaL __________ 24*_ 11 _ 15*_ 08*_ 10 ___ 08 _____ 76


appledrop ____________ 10*_ 14 _ 17*_ 12*_ 10 ___ 12 _____ 75

john mac _____________23*_ 00 _ 18*_ 12*_ 09 ___ 06 _____ 68

adam240610 __________14*_ 18 _ 15*_ 09*_ 06 ___ 06 _____ 68

200motels _____ (-3) ___14*_ 13 _ 14*_ 05*_ 10 ___ 12 __68-3=65

Tae laidir _____________20*_ 17 _ 08*_ 03*_ 09 ___ 07 _____ 64

MrSkinner ____________ 20*_ 13 _ 12*_ 02*_ 09 ___ 07 _____ 63

waterways ____________16*_ 19 _ 06*_ 06*_ 09 ___ 06 _____ 62

Dacogawa ____________ 11*_ 15 _ 11*_ 10*_ 10 ___ 03 _____ 60


___ Con Sensus _______ 11*_ 18 _ 12*_ 04*_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 59


Mr stonewall __________ 11*_ 18 _ 14*_ 03*_ 08 ___ 05 _____ 59

CirrusBusiness _________16*_ 16 _ 06*_ 02*_ 09 ___ 04 _____ 53

Bsal _________________05*_ 14 _ 06*_ 12*_ 09 ___ 04 _____ 50

DOCARCH ____________03*_ 16 _ 13*_ 06*_ 08 ___ 04 _____ 50

Artane2002 ___________10*_ 08 _ 14*_ 03*_ 09 ___ 04 _____ 48

Pauldry ______________ 07*_ 16 _ 10*_ 02*_ 09 ___ 03 _____ 47

Dasa29 ______________ 12*_ 00 _ 11*_ 10*_ 07 ___ 03 _____ 43

Joe Public ____________ 06*_ 13 _ 10*_ 03*_ 06 ___ 04 _____ 42

SleetAndSnow __(-2)___ 02*_ 20 _ 04*_ 03*_ 10 ___ 04 __43-2=41

Funsterdelux ___ (-4) __ 04*_ 16 _ 08*_ 04*_ 09 ___ 03 __44-4=40

Sunflower3 ____ (-3) ___01*_ 09 _ 16*_ 02*_ 09 ___ 03 __40-3=37

M.T. Cranium __________08*_ 09 _ 07*_ 01*_ 08 ___ 04 _____ 37

Tazio _________ (-2) ___01*_ 00 _ 12*_ 08*_ 05 ___ 02 __28-2=26

BLIZZARD7 ___________00*_ 17 _ 00*_ 02*_ 00 ___ 02 _____ 21

Gonzo _______________01*_ 07 _ 00*_ 01*_ 08 ___ 03 _____ 20

Danno _______________00*_ 00 _ 00*_ 03*_ 00 ___ 02 __ 05-->10

________________________________________________________

Notes: * elements are given boosted scores by minimum progression rule.
Minimum score of 10 applies to one total.

Raw scores were generally one third to one half of boosted scores. Our leader KS (83) had a raw score of 50, Western Storm
would have scored 57. Since the max, sunshine and bonus scored normally, those account for most of the raw scores.

Scoring parameters will be checked after the MS review.

======================================

(actual forecasts)


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max, loc'n


___ NormaL __________ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ +3.0 (loc'n by climat)


Eon1208 _____________ 5.0 _ 15.9 _ -6.2 _ 119 _ 096 ___ +0.5 Mullingar

Kindred Spirit _________ 5.0 _ 14.4 _ -7.0 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 0.0 Markree

john mac _____________5.0 _ 12.5 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 106 ___ +2.2 Markree

Tae laidir _____________4.9 _ 14.3 _ -8.0 _ 084 _ 108 ___ +0.4 Ballyhaise

MrSkinner ____________ 4.9 _ 13.9 _ -7.9 _ 079 _ 109 ___ +0.9 Markree

WesternStorm _________4.8 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 105 _ 098 ____ 0.0 Knock

Jpmarn ______________ 4.8 _ 14.8 _ -7.8 _ 115 _ 110 ___ -0.8 Knock

sryanbruen ___________ 4.7 _ 15.1 _ -5.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ +0.8 Knock

waterways ____________4.7 _ 14.5 _ -9.5 _ 095 _ 107 ___ +0.6 Mount Dillon

CirrusBusiness ________ 4.7 _ 14.2 _ -9.3 _ 080 _ 105 ___ -1.3 Ballyhaise

adam240610 __________4.6 _ 14.8 _ -6.9 _ 101 _ 122 ___ +0.1 Ballyhaise

200motels _____ (-3) ___4.5 _ 15.3 _ -7.3 _ 091 _ 102 ___ +0.7 Knock

Dasa29 ______________ 4.5 _ 11.5 _ -8.0 _ 105 _ 115 ___ -2.0 Mullingar

Mr stonewall __________ 4.4 _ 14.4 _ -7.2 _ 083 _ 091 ___ -0.8 Ballyhaise

Dacogawa ____________ 4.4 _ 14.1 _ -8.7 _ 105 _ 100 ___ -2.2 Ballyhaise


___ Con Sensus _______ 4.4 _ 14.4 _ -7.5 _ 090 _ 106 ___ -1.0


Artane2002 ___________ 4.3 _ 15.8 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

appledrop ____________ 4.3 _ 14.0 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ +1.8 Knock

M.T. Cranium __________4.2 _ 15.7 _ -9.2 _ 070 _ 110 ___ -1.0 Markree

Pauldry ______________ 4.1 _ 15.0 _ -8.2 _ 079 _ 105 ___ -2.0 Ballyhaise

Joe Public ____________ 4.0 _ 13.9 _ -8.1 _ 085 _ 121 ___ -2.1 Casement

Bsal _________________3.9 _ 14.0 _-10.0_ 110 _ 107 ___ -1.0 Mount Dillon

Funsterdelux ___ (-4) ___3.7 _ 15.0 _ -8.5 _ 090 _ 096 ___ -1.7 Mullingar

DOCARCH ____________ 3.6 _ 14.2 _ -7.2 _ 096 _ 110 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

SleetAndSnow __(-2)____3.4 _ 14.6 _-11.2_ 087 _ 103 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

Sunflower3 ____ (-3) ___ 3.2 _ 13.5 _ -6.8 _ 080 _ 095 ___ -2.4 Ballyhaise

Tazio _________ (-2) ___3.0 _ 12.0 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 125 ___ -5.5 Cork Airport

Gonzo _______________ 2.9 _ 15.9 _-12.8_ 072 _ 112 ___ -2.4 Ballyhaise

Danno _______________ 1.7 _ 11.9 _-14.2_ 085 _ 175 ___ -4.0 Ballyhaise

BLIZZARD7 ___________ 1.3 _ 14.3 _-13.7_ 080 _ 170 ___ -4.7 Ballyhaise

________________________________________________________

29 forecasts to this point, all are below the February average IMT ... shades of Dec 2010.

Con Sensus is the median value, 15th ranked ... will change slightly if any further entries are
received.

For low max location, the count of stations suggested is

Ballyhaise _____ 13 ___ Con Sensus scores 3 if correct

Knock _________ 5 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

Markree ________4 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

Mullingar _______ 3 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

Mount Dillon ____ 2 ___ Con Sensus scores 1 if correct

Cork, Casement _ 1 each Con Sensus scores 1 if correct

all others _______ -- ___ Con Sensus scores 0 if correct

(Normal scores 3 for any of the above that got 2+ votes, 2 or 1 by climatology otherwise)

Your score will be based on the order (1st, 2nd, 3rd) of the low max at the location you selected.

Any qualifiers that occur at other stations will be disregarded in that part of the scoring, but counted for

the 7/10 portion related to the temperature value. Superbonus of 1 or 2 available on this one.

M.T. Cranium

Total scores for 2021 contest year Jan-Feb, Four Seasons scoring


rank _ FORECASTER ________ Jan _ Feb ___ TOTAL ___ (rank Jan)


_01 __ sryanbruen __________75 _ 76 ____ 151 ____ 04

_02 __ Kindred Spirit ________58 _ 82 ____ 140 ____ t11

t 03 __ dacogawa ___________79 _ 60 ____ 139 ____ 02

t 03 __ JPmarn _____________63 _ 76 ____ 139 ____ 08


(05) __ ___ NormaL _________59 _ 76 ____ 135 ____(t10)


t 05 __ tae laidir ____________67 _ 64 ____ 131 ____ t05

t 05 __ Appledrop __________ 56 _ 75 ____ 131 ____ 15

_07 __ john mac ___________ 62 _ 68 ____ 130 ____ 09

_08 __ eon1208 ____________53 _ 76 ____ 129 ____ 18

t 09 __ Adam240610 ________ 58 _ 68 ____ 126 ____ t11

t 09 __ Western Storm _______45 _ 81 ____ 126 ____ 22

_11 __ Mr stonewall _________65 _ 59 ____ 124 ____ 07


(t11)_____ Con Sensus ______65 _ 59 ____ 124 ____(t07)


_12 __ MrSkinner __________ 58 _ 63 ____ 121 ____ t11

_13 __ waterways __________55 _ 62 ____ 117 ____ 16

_14 __ Artane2002 _________ 67 _ 48 ____ 115 ____ t05

_15 __ sunflower3 __________76 _ 37 ____ 113 ____ 03

_16 __ Pauldry ____________ 58 _ 47 ____ 105 ____ t11

_17 __ DOCARCH __________ 54 _ 50 ____ 104 ____ 17

_18 __ 200motels __________38 _ 65 ____ 103 ____ 26

_19 __ Gonzo _____________ 81 _ 20 ____ 101 ____ 01

_20 __ funsterdelux ________ 59 _ 40 _____ 99 ____ 10

t 21 __ Bsal _______________41 _ 50 _____ 91 ____ t23

t 21 __ dasa29 ____________ 48 _ 43 _____ 91 ____ 20

_23 __ Cirrus Business ______35 _ 53 _____ 88 ____ 27

_24 __ M.T. Cranium _______ 47 _ 37 _____ 84 ____ 21

_25 __ Joe Public __________ 41 _ 42 _____ 83 ____ t23

_26 __ SleetandSnow _______30 _ 41 _____ 71 ____ 29

_27 __ sdanseo ____________51 _ --- _____ 51 ____ 19

_28 __ Danno _____________38 _ 10 _____ 48 ____ 25

_29 __ Bazlers ____________ 34 _ --- _____ 34 ____ 28

_30 __ BLIZZARD7 _________10 _ 21 _____ 31 ____ 30

_31 __ Tazio ______________--- _ 26 _____ 26 ____ ---

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Four Seasons 2020-21 Contest

For those who are new to our contests, this one is just a contest within the main contest, you get points for each of the four seasons as follows: 10 points for high total score, 7 for second, 6 for third, 5 for fourth, 4 for fifth, 3 for sixth, 2 for seventh, and 1 for 8th to 10th place inclusive. Con Sensus and NormaL play but their ranks don't bump any points away from lower scoring forecasters.

New this year, you will also get one point for a finish lower than 10th but higher than 180 points which maintains an average of 60.

The winter portion of this contest is now over and I have added Dec 2020 scores to the above totals, to find the top ten, with points awarded. I show the total scores for anyone who played all three months or had a good total for two tries.

WINTER SEASON POINTS


FORECASTER ___ TOTAL SCORE __ Points


dacogawa ________ 219 _________ 10

JPmarn __________ 215 __________ 7

sryanbruen _______ 214 __________ 6

Western Storm ____ 207 __________ 5

john mac _________ 202 __________4

__ Con Sensus ____ 202 __________(3)

tae laidir _________ 201 __________ 3

Mr stonewall ______ 198 __________ 2

Appledrop ________ 196 __________ 1

__ NormaL _______ 192 __________ (1)

Artane2002 _______ 188 __________ 1

MrSkinner ________ 186 __________ 1

Eon1208 _________ 184 __________ 1

Pauldry __________ 183 __________ 1

Adam240610 ______183 __________ 1

sunflower3 ________181 __________ 1

waterways ________180 __________ 1

DOCARCH _________171 _________ --

Gonzo ___________ 171 __________--

Bsal _____________ 167 _________ --

funsterdelux _______164 _________ --

dasa29 ___________ 163 _________--

M.T. Cranium ______ 151 _________--

SleetAndSnow _____ 131 _________ --

sdanseo (2/3) _____ 123 _________ --

Joe Public _________122 _________ --

Danno ____________108 _________--

BLIZZARD7 _________50 _________--

======================================

Thanks for participating in the winter contests, good luck the rest of the four seasons.

Congrats to sryanbruen for leading the 2021 contest after two months, and also to dacogawa for winning the Winter portion of the Four Seasons.

Tae laidir

The Leader Board of cumulative yearly scores for each of the categories. Penalties disregarded.
TEMP
44 Eon1208
44 john mac
43 Jpmarn
42 Kindred Spirit
41 sryanbruen
40 waterways
MAX
35 Tae laidir
34 DOCARCH
33 sryanbruen
33 Mrstonewall
33 Mr Skinner
MIN
36 Sunflower3
32 Adam240610
30 sryanbruen
30 Mrstonewall
30 Dacogawa
30 Jpmarn
PRC
25 Kindred Spirit
23 Dacogawa
23 Dasa29
21 john mac
20 Eon1208
SUN
19 john mac
19 Eon1208
19 Bsal
19 NormaL
19 WesternStorm
BONUS
21 Appledrop
20 sryanbruen
20 200motels
18 WesternStorm
17 NormaL