Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email Niamh on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)
New AMA with a US police officer (he's back!). You can ask your questions here

February 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-01-2021 11:50pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT for Feb 2021, the 1981-2010 average is 5.3 C. The IMT is the average monthly temperature for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon.

    2. Predict the MAX for Feb 2021 based on daily extremes at 25 regularly reporting locations on the met.ie website.

    3. Predict the MIN for Feb 2021 based on daily extremes at 25 regularly reporting locations on the met.ie website.

    4. Predict the PRC for Feb 2021 based on percentage of normal Feb precip at eleven locations, the five mentioned in part 1 above, plus Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Cork, Johnstown Castle and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN for Feb 2021 based on percentage of normal Feb sunshine at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia.

    6. BONUS: Predict the lowest daily maximum temperature for the month, and the location (date not required).

    Normal values __ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 3.0

    M.T. Cranium ___ 4.2 _ 15.7 _ -9.2 _ 070 _ 110 ___ -1.0 Markree


    Deadline for entries 0300h Monday 1st Feb then one point for every six hours or portion, to 1500h Tuesday 2nd, after which one point per hour would be deducted.

    Good luck !


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry ___ 4.1 _ 15 _ -8.2 _ 079 _ 105___ -2 Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,717 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal __ 3.9 _ 14.0 _ -10.0 _ 110 _ 107 ___ -1.0 Mount Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,421 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Danno ___ 1.7__ 11.9 _ -14.2 _ 085 _ 175___ -4.0 Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 ___ 4.5__ 11.5 _ -8.0 _ 105 _ 115___ -2.0 Mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭ eon1208


    5.0, 15.9, -6.2, 119, 96, 0.5 - Mullingar.


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,121 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ___ 3.6__ 14.2 _ -7.2 _ 096 _ 110___ -1.2 Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac__ 5.0 _ 12.5 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 106 ___ 2.2 Markree castle


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 5.00 ___ 14.4 ___ -7.0 ___ 110 ___ 95 ___ 0.0 Markree Castle.


  • Registered Users Posts: 24 WesternStorm


    WesternStorm ___ 4.8 ___ 14.5 ___ -6.0 ___ 105 ___ 98 ___ 0.0 Knock Airport


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,184 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo ___ 2.9 _ 15.9 _ -12.8 _ 072 _ 112___ -2.4 Ballyhaise


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ___ 4.7 _ 15.1 _ -5.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 0.8 Knock

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 153 ✭✭ CirrusBusiness


    CirrusBusiness___4.7__14.2__-9.3__80__105__-1.3 Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 755 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall___4.4____14.4___-7.2____83____91___-0.8 Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn __ 4.8_ 14.8_ -7.8 _ 115 _ 110 ___ -0.8 Knock Airport


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways __ 4.7_ 14.5 _ -9.5 _ 95 _ 107 ___ 0.6 Mount Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,628 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    appledrop__4.3__14.0__-5.8__110__100__1.8 Knock


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ____ 4.9_ 14.3 _ -8.0 _ 84 _ 108 ___ 0.4 Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ___ 4.4 _ 14.1 _ -8.7 _ 105 _ 100__ -2.2 Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ___ 4.0 _ 13.9 _ -8.1 _ 85 _ 121 ___ -2.1 Casement


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002__ 4.3 _ 15.8 _ -7.0_ 085 _ 110 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

    this is probably the most difficult one so far for me hence why I left it till the last minute!


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 4,628 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    Artane2002__ 4.3 _ 15.8 _ -7.0_ 085 _ 110 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

    this is probably the most difficult one so far for me hence why I left it till the last minute!

    I'm the same Artane, I'm looking at everyone else min monthly score compared to mine and wondering if they know something I don't!


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner____4.9____13.9____-7.9____79____109____0.9 Markree


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    adam240610 ____4.6__14.8__-6.9__101__122__0.1__Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7___ 1.3__ 14.3 _ -13.7 _ 080 _ 170___ -4.7 Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭ SleetAndSnow


    SleetAndSnow ___ 3.4 _ 14.6 _ -11.2 _ 87 _ 103___ -1.2 Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 664 ✭✭✭ Tazio


    Tazio ___ 3.0 _ 12.0 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 125___ -5.5 Cork Airport


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels 4.5 _ 15.3 _ -7.3 _ 091 _ 102 ___ 0.7 Knock


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3___ 3.2_ 13.5_ -6.8 _ 80 _ 95___ -2.4 Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭ Funsterdelux


    Funsterdelux___ 3.7_ 15_ -8.5 _ 90 _ 96.4___ -1.7 Mullingar


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts -- February 2021


    FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max, loc'n


    ___ NormaL __________ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ +3.0 (loc'n by climat)


    Eon1208 _____________ 5.0 _ 15.9 _ -6.2 _ 119 _ 096 ___ +0.5 Mullingar

    Kindred Spirit _________ 5.0 _ 14.4 _ -7.0 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 0.0 Markree

    john mac _____________5.0 _ 12.5 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 106 ___ +2.2 Markree

    Tae laidir _____________4.9 _ 14.3 _ -8.0 _ 084 _ 108 ___ +0.4 Ballyhaise

    MrSkinner ____________ 4.9 _ 13.9 _ -7.9 _ 079 _ 109 ___ +0.9 Markree

    WesternStorm _________4.8 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 105 _ 098 ____ 0.0 Knock

    Jpmarn ______________ 4.8 _ 14.8 _ -7.8 _ 115 _ 110 ___ -0.8 Knock

    sryanbruen ___________ 4.7 _ 15.1 _ -5.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ +0.8 Knock

    waterways ____________4.7 _ 14.5 _ -9.5 _ 095 _ 107 ___ +0.6 Mount Dillon

    CirrusBusiness ________ 4.7 _ 14.2 _ -9.3 _ 080 _ 105 ___ -1.3 Ballyhaise

    adam240610 __________4.6 _ 14.8 _ -6.9 _ 101 _ 122 ___ +0.1 Ballyhaise

    200motels _____ (-3) ___4.5 _ 15.3 _ -7.3 _ 091 _ 102 ___ +0.7 Knock

    Dasa29 ______________ 4.5 _ 11.5 _ -8.0 _ 105 _ 115 ___ -2.0 Mullingar

    Mr stonewall __________ 4.4 _ 14.4 _ -7.2 _ 083 _ 091 ___ -0.8 Ballyhaise

    Dacogawa ____________ 4.4 _ 14.1 _ -8.7 _ 105 _ 100 ___ -2.2 Ballyhaise


    ___ Con Sensus _______ 4.4 _ 14.4 _ -7.5 _ 090 _ 106 ___ -1.0


    Artane2002 ___________ 4.3 _ 15.8 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

    appledrop ____________ 4.3 _ 14.0 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ +1.8 Knock

    M.T. Cranium __________4.2 _ 15.7 _ -9.2 _ 070 _ 110 ___ -1.0 Markree

    Pauldry ______________ 4.1 _ 15.0 _ -8.2 _ 079 _ 105 ___ -2.0 Ballyhaise

    Joe Public ____________ 4.0 _ 13.9 _ -8.1 _ 085 _ 121 ___ -2.1 Casement

    Bsal _________________3.9 _ 14.0 _-10.0_ 110 _ 107 ___ -1.0 Mount Dillon

    Funsterdelux ___ (-4) ___3.7 _ 15.0 _ -8.5 _ 090 _ 096 ___ -1.7 Mullingar

    DOCARCH ____________ 3.6 _ 14.2 _ -7.2 _ 096 _ 110 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

    SleetAndSnow __(-2)____3.4 _ 14.6 _-11.2_ 087 _ 103 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

    Sunflower3 ____ (-3) ___ 3.2 _ 13.5 _ -6.8 _ 080 _ 095 ___ -2.4 Ballyhaise

    Tazio _________ (-2) ___3.0 _ 12.0 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 125 ___ -5.5 Cork Airport

    Gonzo _______________ 2.9 _ 15.9 _-12.8_ 072 _ 112 ___ -2.4 Ballyhaise

    Danno _______________ 1.7 _ 11.9 _-14.2_ 085 _ 175 ___ -4.0 Ballyhaise

    BLIZZARD7 ___________ 1.3 _ 14.3 _-13.7_ 080 _ 170 ___ -4.7 Ballyhaise

    ________________________________________________________

    29 forecasts to this point, all are below the February average IMT ... shades of Dec 2010.

    Con Sensus is the median value, 15th ranked ... will change slightly if any further entries are
    received.

    For low max location, the count of stations suggested is

    Ballyhaise _____ 13 ___ Con Sensus scores 3 if correct

    Knock _________ 5 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

    Markree ________4 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

    Mullingar _______ 3 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

    Mount Dillon ____ 2 ___ Con Sensus scores 1 if correct

    Cork, Casement _ 1 each Con Sensus scores 1 if correct

    all others _______ -- ___ Con Sensus scores 0 if correct

    (Normal scores 3 for any of the above that got 2+ votes, 2 or 1 by climatology otherwise)

    Your score will be based on the order (1st, 2nd, 3rd) of the low max at the location you selected.

    Any qualifiers that occur at other stations will be disregarded in that part of the scoring, but counted for

    the 7/10 portion related to the temperature value. Superbonus of 1 or 2 available on this one.


Advertisement