Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

volchitsa

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Agreed, except hardline Unionism does matter. The reality is that Loyalism will not go gently into a United Ireland. That has serious implications for Ireland.

Meh. Hardline unionism hasn't been more than a bunch of jumped-up thugs who depended on the support they had at various levels in police and government. Take that back-up from them and they'll collapse like the bullies they are.

weemcd

volchitsa wrote: »

Meh. Hardline unionism hasn't been more than a bunch of jumped-up thugs who depended on the support they had at various levels in police and government. Take that back-up from them and they'll collapse like the bullies they are.

Correct. They won't have the RUC, MI-5, UDR, Branch or B men holding their hands now. If this gets ugly, which it probably will in some shape or form they know who these people are. There is currently no political will to tackle them because they feed the DUP votes.

forgottenhills

volchitsa wrote: »

Meh. Hardline unionism hasn't been more than a bunch of jumped-up thugs who depended on the support they had at various levels in police and government. Take that back-up from them and they'll collapse like the bullies they are.

Those are the words of the type of reckless person who would be happy to send someone else's kids into a war they incited. If you ever grew up with, or learned to understand, Unionists you would know that their beliefs are not going to melt like the snow the first day they lose their majority in NI. It would be a start to consider them as the British people who live in NI and work from there.

There won't be any stable United Ireland achieved without the agreement of the one million of so of these people. Forget about any threat of violence on their part. A simple short campaign of civil disobedience (blocked roads, services such as water and electricity switched off) would quickly bring a forced and premature United Ireland to its knees.

L1011

Service disruption would require them actually having the means to do so. This isn't the UWC strike era.

The power and gas grids can be (and are, for gas) controlled from Dublin already.

forgottenhills

L1011 wrote: »

Service disruption would require them actually having the means to do so. This isn't the UWC strike era.

The power and gas grids can be (and are, for gas) controlled from Dublin already.

Can someone in Dublin looking at a grid on a monitor remotely stop numerous individuals blocking roads, cutting down power wires or digging up water mains with a digger if they are motivated and so inclined?

reslfj

CelticRambler wrote: »

... Do you hear of the EU running PR campaigns in Belarus or Morocco?

The EU has good and friendly relations with Morocco and a fair amount of zero tariff trade - e.g. citrus.

Morocco meets the EU rules and product standards (many of UNECE origin).


Lars

L1011

forgottenhills wrote: »

Can someone in Dublin looking at a grid on a monitor remotely stop numerous individuals blocking roads, cutting down power wires or digging up water mains with a digger if they are motivated and so inclined?

The plausibility of that is basically nil.

Minor local damage is not going to bring a grid down.

Leroy42

But the options for NI are severely limited. The DUP, in particular, want to operate on the basis that nothing has changed. That want to leave the EU, stick with the UK, but suffer no impact from that decision.

It is in everyone's interest that reality is faced, rather than what the UK want. ie. and endless renegotiation of loads of small items that in themselves don't seem important but chip away until there is nothing left.

The current Eu stance, that before any reviews etc, the UK must first implement the agreement as it was agreed. When issues arise, which given the rushed nature of the deal they certainly will, then the Uk tone down the rhetoric and sending demand letters and actively engage with he EU on how to solve issues whilst maintaining the spirit or the agreement.

The main problem, atm, is that Johnson has still to be honest with the UK as a whole, and in particular the people of NI, of exactly what he agreed to and why. Until that happens there is little point in the EU looking to engage with the UK as the UK will never be happy as the reality will not align to the story they have told the UK.

There has still no impact statement published, they won't admit that anything negative is actually a choice and is not going to change in the short term.

forgottenhills

L1011 wrote: »

The plausibility of that is basically nil.

Minor local damage is not going to bring a grid down.

Do you believe that it is not easily possible for a large number of motivated people to bring down power, mobile phone and water services over wide areas of a country? It is in fact quite easy if you know how. This sort of disruption often happens by accident during building works or storms. Think about how much more widespread or effective it would be if a large number of people operating in many areas actually set out to do so deliberately and to not allow repairs to be made.

Sam Russell

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

if the unionists do cut their nose/electricity/water then they just be harming themselves, good luck getting Westminster to pay for infrastructure, may take years while the disconnected parts descend into the stone age.

One thing modern society needs is electricity. Should the Loyalist mobs decide to disrupt the power supply to NI, they might consider the possibility that it might take a while for it to be restored. No phones, no heating, possibly no water, no shops - it might be making a point, but not a good one.

The Loyalist paramilitaries had the full backing of the various arms of the British state to carry out the lethal acts, some with actual military help. It is hoped that should they restart their violence afresh, they will not only not have the assistance of the British state, they will have its very active opposition at every level. (At least that should be the case).

The Tory Gov needs to snuff out this possible Loyalist return to violence with some speed before it takes any form of hold. It is a bit like Covid, once it gets a hold, it will be hard to suppress.

FrancieBrady

Despite Arlene cajoling and calling for people to sign, the 'petition' only got 147,000 approx signatures in the end.
Unionism is exaggerating the concerns and it would seem to me there isn't wide support for the belligerents. Moderate Unionism will turn very quickly on the thugs, thus isolating them further. Bad strategic thinking has been the stand out trait of belligerent Unionism up to now.

Leroy42

But Johnson needs to front up and take the sting, or potential sting, out of it. DUP are railing against the wrong target. The issue is not the EU, the issue is the deal that the Uk signed up to.

It was negotiated by the democratically voted government, and passed overwhelmingly by the parliament.

Johnson is trying to play the innocent victim, dupped by the EU and now being unfairly treated. But that is not the case at all.

Any further movement, in fact I would say before any movement, from the EU should require that the UK face up to their responsibilities and Johnson lays out exactly what has been agreed and the impacts. A joint statement, both EU and UK, would help cut off many of the issues.

It should be made very clear that while the EU can work within the agreement, if the UK wants to discard any part of the agreement that requires a cancellation of the agreement and move to full WTO.

Now, that would make the DUP happy, I would think, but the rest of the UK are going to be aghast at the even more issues they are going to face.

BonnieSituation

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Agreed, except hardline Unionism does matter. The reality is that Loyalism will not go gently into a United Ireland. That has serious implications for Ireland.

It doesn't. This State is only short of offering them foot massages at this point.

Nothing is ever gonna satisfy the belligerent unionists. Nothing. Tell me a time Unionists were happy?

I mean, the way they go on you'd swear that the roles were reversed and they've been in a UI all this time.

L1011

forgottenhills wrote: »

Do you believe that it is not easily possible for a large number of motivated people to bring down power, mobile phone and water services over wide areas of a country? It is in fact quite easy if you know how. This sort of disruption often happens by accident during building works or storms. Think about how much more widespread or effective it would be if a large number of people operating in many areas actually set out to do so deliberately and to not allow repairs to be made.

I do not believe you would find a large number of motivated and competent people in the first place. Might get a few lads who electrocute themselves or hit a gas main and blow themselves up, though.

If they are in a position to "not allow repairs to be made", they will have basically barricaded themselves in to areas without power or sanitation, which is a fantastically stupid idea.


Remember that even in times of full scale paramilitary activity from both sides, the power cut threat that cause a buckling by the UK Govt was by workers in a power station; not this type of action.

forgottenhills

Sam Russell wrote: »

One thing modern society needs is electricity. Should the Loyalist mobs decide to disrupt the power supply to NI, they might consider the possibility that it might take a while for it to be restored. No phones, no heating, possibly no water, no shops - it might be making a point, but not a good one.

The Loyalist paramilitaries had the full backing of the various arms of the British state to carry out the lethal acts, some with actual military help. It is hoped that should they restart their violence afresh, they will not only not have the assistance of the British state, they will have its very active opposition at every level. (At least that should be the case).

The Tory Gov needs to snuff out this possible Loyalist return to violence with some speed before it takes any form of hold. It is a bit like Covid, once it gets a hold, it will be hard to suppress.

This old trope of the full British state backing Loyalists. Yes Harold Wilson, Brian Faulkner, et al conspiring to bring down their own agreement. But let's ignore this old conspiracy chestnut.

I am making the point about the power and danger of widespread civic disobedience in a reply to an earlier post. My point being that if 1m or even a large minority of this population don't agree to new governing structures in any United Ireland then they could initiate a period of civil disobedience that would bring NI to its knees. The pattern in Unionism in times of perceived existentialist threat has always been for the most hardline to shout loudest and to force others to agree to a course of action, or else invite accusations of Lundyism. So it is necessary to get prior wide agreement to any major changes and not force them in any way.

The current dispute over the implementation of the NI Protocol is not seen (not yet anyway) as an existentialist threat by many Unionists. But it is possible that the situation could be badly handled or manipulated so that it becomes seen as one. If that happens then the usual mass protest will break out and the NI Protocol will be abandoned as per the lessons of history. I don't expect this to happen in the current case. But if we are talking about any sort of United Ireland scenario then that will be a different story altogether if things are not managed very carefully via agreement and gradual changes.

forgottenhills

L1011 wrote: »

I do not believe you would find a large number of motivated and competent people in the first place. Might get a few lads who electrocute themselves or hit a gas main and blow themselves up, though.

If they are in a position to "not allow repairs to be made", they will have basically barricaded themselves in to areas without power or sanitation, which is a fantastically stupid idea.


Remember that even in times of full scale paramilitary activity from both sides, the power cut threat that cause a buckling by the UK Govt was by workers in a power station; not this type of action.

Look, my basic point is that widespread civic disobedience in the face of what is perceived, rightly or wrongly, to be an existential threat to Unionism, would bring NI to a halt. It happened before and it would happen again. In the previous Loyalist Workers Strike some essential services were allowed to continue. It is not too difficult to bring services such as electricity or mobile phone to a halt over a wide area of a country. I am not going to explain how on the internet. Even leaving services aside, thousands of people out simply blocking roads make an area ungovernable.

Zubeneschamali

forgottenhills wrote: »

if 1m or even a large minority of this population don't agree to new governing structures in any United Ireland then they could initiate a period of civil disobedience that would bring NI to its knees

When I say they don't matter, I mean that they will be purple with rage at a United Ireland no matter when or how it comes about, and no matter what anyone does to persuade or placate them.

So no point in trying.

But there are nowhere near a million of them. The TUVs 20K vote is more like it.

L1011

forgottenhills wrote: »

Look, my basic point is that widespread civic disobedience in the face of what is perceived, rightly or wrongly, to be an existential threat to Unionism, would bring NI to a halt. It happened before and it would happen again. In the previous Loyalist Workers Strike some essential services were allowed to continue. It is not too difficult to bring services such as electricity or mobile phone to a halt over a wide area of a country. I am not going to explain how on the internet. Even leaving services aside, thousands of people out simply blocking roads make an area ungovernable.

But your basic point is implausible, basically.

You are assuming that there would be more motivated and competent people than there were in the paramilitary days coupled with no policing or military response; and/or that people would willingly remove *their own* services.

forgottenhills

L1011 wrote: »

But your basic point is implausible, basically.

You are assuming that there would be more motivated and competent people than there were in the paramilitary days coupled with no policing or military response; and/or that people would willingly remove *their own* services.

I am not talking about their own services in particular. For instance targeting a relatively small number of strategic electricity substations (and I am not disclosing any trade secret in saying that these can be disabled with a can of petrol and a match) would knock out strategic government services quite easily. And you haven't even commented on the simple issue of widespread roadblocks and no-go areas. The British Army with a great deal more manpower and resources than any Irish security services could muster found these tricky enough to deal with. I'd rather take every step to avoid any outbreak of widespread civil disobedience than contemplate sending my brother or kids to deal with it.

forgottenhills

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

When I say they don't matter, I mean that they will be purple with rage at a United Ireland no matter when or how it comes about, and no matter what anyone does to persuade or placate them.

So no point in trying.

But there are nowhere near a million of them. The TUVs 20K vote is more like it.

No, the mass marches and support for Ian Paisleys "Ulster Says No" campaign is more like what you would see in a badly planned and forced UI scenario.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please take the United Ireland discussion here. Thanks.

Seth Brundle

Nothing we aren't already aware of but interesting to hear a former diplomat say it...
French diplomat brands Boris Johnson 'a liar' who will blame Brexit costs on Covid

Boris Johnson is "an unrepentant and inveterate liar" who is not subject to the same rules as others, a former French diplomat to the UK has said in her new book.

Sylvie Bermann, the French ambassador to the UK during the Brexit vote, also claimed Brexiteers were consumed with a hatred for Germany and were gripped by a myth that they liberated Europe on their own during World War II.

Bermann described Brexit as a triumph of emotion over reason, won by a campaign full of lies in which negative attitudes to migration were exploited by figures such as Johnson and Michael Gove.

Ambassador to the UK from 2014 to 2017, Bermann is one of the most senior diplomats in the French diplomatic service to attack the UK government's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which she said was one of the worst in the world, alongside that of Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil.

She predicted Johnson would seek to use Covid to mask the true economic cost of Brexit on the UK economy.

eire4

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Nothing we aren't already aware of but interesting to hear a former diplomat say it...
French diplomat brands Boris Johnson 'a liar' who will blame Brexit costs on Covid

Yes nothing in there that is surprising at all. Just very interesting that such a high profile diplomat would come out and so bluntly say what she did in public.

Capt'n Midnight

forgottenhills wrote: »

Can someone in Dublin looking at a grid on a monitor remotely stop numerous individuals blocking roads, cutting down power wires or digging up water mains with a digger if they are motivated and so inclined?

Take a wild guess who owns Northern Ireland Electricity ?

IF services were disrupted some areas might take longer to restore than others.

Thanks to wind and gas and interconnectors to Scotland and the rest of Ireland and more diversity in the work force it's unlikely a power strike would have the same impact as back in the 1970's. In fact those stations were originally due to close down about now.


Power generation will be a bigger issue in England as the nuclear plants shut down. Scottish independence would upset the mix too.



Texas shows what happens when you deregulate. $28Bn more costs to the consumer and people are literally dying because deregulation means it's not up to spec as the shareholders didn't have to spend as much on the network.

It's an example of how to make money in post-Brexit UK.

Seth Brundle

The Irish Times is reporting that the ERG are using the EU's threat to trigger Article 16 as an opportunity to ditch the NI Protocol and adopt a system of mutual enforcement. ERG Chairman Mark Francois said:

We will no doubt be told that the EU will never renegotiate the protocol – just as we were repeatedly assured they would never reopen the withdrawal agreement, or indeed abandon the dreaded ‘backstop’, which the protocol eventually replaced when they subsequently did both

Can Johnson nip their complaints in the bud? Will he even try?

Tory hardliners urge ditching of Northern Ireland protocol

uptherebels

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The Irish Times is reporting that the ERG are using the EU's triggering of Article 16 as an opportunity to ditch the NI Protocol and adopt a system of mutual enforcement. ERG Chairman Mark Francois said:
Can Johnson nip their complaints in the bud? Will he even try?

Tory hardliners urge ditching of Northern Ireland protocol

You mean the EU's hreat to trigger article 16

Seth Brundle

uptherebels wrote: »

You mean the EU's hreat to trigger article 16

fixed, thanks.


Separately, I see Tony Connelly is reporting that the EU and UK are looking to reset relations in order to begin a new and improved relationship between the two rather than what we've had in recent months...

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1365189632816803841

Hurrache

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Separately, I see Tony Connelly is reporting that the EU and UK are looking to reset relations in order to begin a new and improved relationship between the two rather than what we've had in recent months...

There is contrary claims to this now though, however I don't know how well inside the contrarian is to hear differently.
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1365248859270742018

J Mysterio

Girlfriend tried to order me something on Ebay for Valentines Day. Was to ship with DPD from UK, but DPD refused it. She tried again, refused again. lol.

Professor Moriarty

J Mysterio wrote: »

Girlfriend tried to order me something on Ebay for Valentines Day. Was to ship with DPD from UK, but DPD refused it. She tried again, refused again. lol.

That's her story and she's sticking to it.