Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118344165#Comment_118344165

Please please please let his replacement be Steve Baker or Marc Francois.

Leroy42

Baker has already ruled himself out. None of them will want to be anywhere near it.

Easier to be on the sidelines complaining about it.

Frost was 100% committed to Brexit and the best he managed was a deal that even he admits is terrible compared to either EU membership or what was promised.

Despite the spin, this is a disaster for Johnson, and a massive blow to Brexit.

Mr.Nice Guy

Glad to hear he's gone. Not sure his replacement is going to be much better all the same. There seems to be a strategy of having a 'bullish' Brexit minister that does his best to destabilise matters in the public eye. I'm not convinced that approach is going to change because I don't think they have any other idea what to do other than stamping their feet about how the protocol - which they helped negotiate and won an election on - is so unfair.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118344358#Comment_118344358

He already has climbed down. It happened weeks ago when he said day after day that art. 50 would be triggered and then suddenly went silent

The history books will be full of WhatsApp screen grabs...

Such strange times.

murphaph

The WhatsApp stuff shows us that the ERG still want no deal. But how big a group is this in the parliamentary party at the moment? Still surely a minority. They know for sure now there's no US deal. The ERG WhatsApp group name is scary.

fash

Johnson was forced by the US, EU and reality to u-turn on the NI protocol and Frost wanted to keep himself ideologically pure (and possibly avoid some of the association with the extra brexit burden coming on 1 Jan 2022) - possibly looking for the same or a higher office in the cabinet of Johnson's replacement.

Johnson will likely need to replace Frost with someone equally or even more ideologically pure in order to prevent the desertion of the rabid Brexiters and keep the support of the Tory selectorate.

The only way for an addict to begin the recovery process is to hit rock bottom - the UK hasn't hit it yet.

Tropheus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118345164#Comment_118345164

Good take, but it's a parody account.

farmerval

I assume it will be rinse and repeat, whoever Johnson will appoint will be promised Johnson's full backing etc. etc. etc. and when the next showdown appears Johnson won't press the nuclear button and they'll end up like Frost, having promised to give the mighty EU a good kicking from plucky global Britain, they too will have to quietly drop the big threats.

It's really hard to see how they will climb down from where they have placed themselves. They're spinning this totally unattainable version of Britain, as global leaders, as the most desirable place in the world, the way they spin it, it's the only place illegal immigrants want to be.

The narrative is there in all their policies, controlled immigration under almost impossible conditions because Britain is such a desirable place to go to do all the menial tasks that no-one else wants to do. Right now it's talk of Daffodil picking next spring.

There's several industries where the workforce are almost exclusively immigrant, Meat processing, lot's of the intensive agricultural labour, waste collection and sorting etc. A huge amount of the takeaway industry is first and second generation immigrants.

The difference there is that so many immigrants that came to Britain in the post war era came to build lives not just to work double jobs because they loved doing what the locals didn't want to do.

The Brexiteers love the narrative that potential immigrants are queuing round the block and when the great and mighty Global Britain whistles they'll come running on whatever terms and conditions that Britain offers, like emergency truck drivers, you can come but be gone by Christmas eve.

Akrasia

Good piece in the Guardian about the faux libertarians in the Tory Party

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/19/libertarian-tories-still-ask-to-see-papers-of-those-they-deem-not-worthy-of-freedom

Never let any of them say they are in favour of freedom

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118345847#Comment_118345847

It hasn't been widely reported yet but it appears that the UK is now seeing net 'migration' of EU citizens and workers i.e. more EU citizens are leaving than arriving.

Did they honestly expect anything else though? Five and a half years of EU / Europe bashing from the Govt, the media and the English public, with the message going out that EU citizens were most unwelcome and considered a burden and a drain on the country.

Larbre34

Thats correct. And I'm loving the suffering they are doing for it.

Food rotting in the ground, logistics services in tatters and so on.

A small rump of the Tory party has succeeded in rendering GB Inc totally dysfunctional and on the road to serious and long term economic recession, if not depression.

If thats what it takes for ordinary Brits to wake up and initiate a reset, to take back control of their own Country, so be it. Its in Ireland's longer term interests that they do so. But we can still prosper at a good level even if they don't.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118346563#Comment_118346563

Schadenfreude only goes so far. Brexit was functionally 50/50 with many presumably feeling deep Buyers Remorse as time went on, and the truth showing its hand; the only hard truth is that those with the least will suffer the most, while the rich and powerful will either leave at their earliest convenience - or use leverage to further erode protections and safety nets with the now "sovereign" UK. Nobody who should suffer, will. However, whether the middle class will have learnt the right, humbling lessons from this is another matter - but again won't hold it against them if they double down on Exceptionalism as panacea.

Strazdas

I've seen the point made in recent days that a 50-50 advisory referendum result should never have allowed one side to effectively hijack the country and sent it off on a disastrous / catastrophic route without the permission of the other (they were effectively banished to the wilderness).

I believe the figures show that only 27% of all adults in the UK voted for the far right / xenophobic project known as 'Brexit'. What could possibly go wrong with this?

RobAMerc

holy moley :

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1472628149829648385

This is just astonishing. Is it Johnson getting rid of a political opponent ?

Larbre34

Hardly.

If she gets a pragmatic deal on sectoral trade across the line, she will both eclipse him and replace him.

Interesting though that she is a remainer at heart. Although its not really about impressing her own ERG party mates now, its about getting deals through parliament with opposition support and sidelining the extremists on both sides of the isle.

Merging Brexit into foreign affairs kind of makes sense.

Having a separate Brexit minister to negotiate with the EU suggests that Brexit isn't done, rather than this just being usual foreign affairs a country engages in with it's neighbours.

Edit: it also avoids a reshuffle.

VinLieger

Liz Truss ability to fail upwards is astounding.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118348098#Comment_118348098

You know how EU will get a excellent trade deal; they will offer her a cheese quota. She will accept anything for that...

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118348598#Comment_118348598

Tories do love cheese and wine at Christmas time

storker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118348066#Comment_118348066

More like handing the EU an early Christmas present. Reports of gunfire in Brussels this evening turned out to be the popping of champagne corks...

Patser

Curious, does Lord Frost lose his Lordship now he's resigned? Was he given it as a prerequisite to holding a cabinet position, or is he now happily ensconced in House of Lords, with no responsibilities

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118348788#Comment_118348788

Not sure you can be unlorded unless you do something seriously bad. Like Jimmy Saville level bad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118348788#Comment_118348788

He has it for life. I think he would have to renounce it to stand for the house of commons since he isn't a commonner anymore.

RobAMerc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118348098#Comment_118348098

I would suggest the level of ability to negotiate a good deal she has shown thus far means this is fairly unlikely to happen. I would also think maybe keeping her hands full keeps her from whipping up support for herself round the party.

SNIP.

Mr.Nice Guy

I'd be concerned Truss will show the passion of the convert. She will need to win over the ERG types like Baker, Redwood and co. for her party ambitions, and they will likely be wary of her with her past pro-remain comments. I can see her following a similar approach to Frost to get them on side, although perhaps in a more subtle fashion.

BlitzKrieg

Isnt lizz truss's whole approach just to simply say yes to whatever the other party wants and then paint it up as a British success?

Thats basically what all her trade deals look like so how is her Brexit work going to be any different? She might be the best thing for Boris to rapidly take Brexit off the frontpage if thats what most people involved want.

She might also be the worst choice in that she is going to tell hardliners like the DUP the open it and swallow the entire protocol down and if they revolt it could spell disaster for Boris in the ranks. Or worst trouble in the north on the streets with more violent outbursts from the muppet gang.

It's hard to know what way she'll play it, probably whatever way the wind blows though. She's is far from an ideological Brexiteer and I suspect she's got her eyes on Boris' job.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118349289#Comment_118349289

Is Truss a member of the ERG? If she is, she's clearly there as a fake....doesn't really believe in anything (like both Johnson and Frost), just in furthering her career.

farmerval

I think the Tories are in a pickle. Electing Boris totally emboldened the ERG; actually the blatant treatment of Theresa May started it. However now that these clowns must be appeased, and the method of appeasing them will hurt everyone else, what do you do???

Truss will do what's good for Truss, again, like Boris when her actions will attract deep scrutiny will everyone see her for what she is? Signing poor trade deals and trumpeting them as successes is one thing, sorting Brexit is another. The other issue for the Tories is like the DUP, will their supporters see that they are only howling at the moon, because that's what they believe people want. Do they really believe that the public want another two years of talking about Brexit?? Another two years of blaming Brussels for everything.

Very soon the economic cost of Covid and Brexit will have to be paid. Interest rates and inflation rising, can they afford to antagonise their nearest trading bloc more????? I suggest Truss will "negotiate" a deal, dress it up like it's a win, Boris will dramatically endorse and the ERG will blow the Tories apart. Everything for the last few years has been playing toward this time, where bluster will be blown away, and the choice is; go with the ERG view of the world and be booted out of power for ten years, or old to reality and implode from the inside out.