Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

murphaph

murphaph wrote: »

Yep, even his "public" name, Boris, is not what he is known as privately.

From his Wiki:

All carefully constructed for a future life in politics. He's a total fraud.

And undeniably a very good one at that, he still has the support of a very large section of the UK population.

joeysoap

What’s the story re the 90 days.? A UK citizen arrives in Dublin and spends say 80 days here does he start at 1 in say France later? Who is counting anyway? And how? Do you get your passport stamped on entry and exit?( if you’re Uk) I regularly flew from Belfast and half the passengers had EU passports, but if they had UK passports does the 90 days apply to them or is NI different?

joeysoap

joeysoap wrote: »

What’s the story re the 90 days.? A UK citizen arrives in Dublin and spends say 80 days here does he start at 1 in say France later? Who is counting anyway? And how? Do you get your passport stamped on entry and exit?( if you’re UK) I regularly flew from Belfast and half the passengers had EU passports, but if they had UK passports does the 90 days apply to them or is NI different?

As far as I know the Schengen rules apply, Ireland is outside of Schengen so passports are needed to cross into mainland EU, UK passport holders would need to use the green channel(starting the clock), EU the blue.

roosterman71

joeysoap wrote: »

What’s the story re the 90 days.? A UK citizen arrives in Dublin and spends say 80 days here does he start at 1 in say France later? Who is counting anyway? And how? Do you get your passport stamped on entry and exit?( if you’re Uk) I regularly flew from Belfast and half the passengers had EU passports, but if they had UK passports does the 90 days apply to them or is NI different?

UK citizens are free to live, work, whatever in Ireland as part of the CTA, GFA and any other agreements between the two countries in place prior to the EU. The 90 days clock is stopped if UK people are in Ireland. Going to other EU countries will mean their passports are stamped in and out of the region.

yagan

joeysoap wrote: »

What’s the story re the 90 days.? A UK citizen arrives in Dublin and spends say 80 days here does he start at 1 in say France later? Who is counting anyway? And how? Do you get your passport stamped on entry and exit?( if you’re Uk) I regularly flew from Belfast and half the passengers had EU passports, but if they had UK passports does the 90 days apply to them or is NI different?

As we're not in the Schengen zone UK passports have the same access to here as before, so after their 80 days here their 90 day Schengen clock starts upon arrival in France.

It may mean that we'll see more English caravaners, but many may prefer to stay in Britain as their pets will need papers to cross the Irish sea.

Brexit may actually be the best thing to happen to a lot of the British seaside haunts that declined once package holidays to the sun started.

Sam Russell

roosterman71 wrote: »

UK citizens are free to live, work, whatever in Ireland as part of the CTA, GFA and any other agreements between the two countries in place prior to the EU. The 90 days clock is stopped if UK people are in Ireland. Going to other EU countries will mean their passports are stamped in and out of the region.

That is true for UK citizens, but not true for non-EU non-UK citizens but UK residents. Not all UK residents are free to travel visa free to Ireland (but by far the majority can).

Breezer

yagan wrote: »

It may mean that we'll see more English caravaners, but many may prefer to stay in Britain as their pets will need papers to cross the Irish sea.

I can’t see that happening so long as cheap flights and crap weather remain a thing. They could take a two week holiday in the Med six times and still be within the 90 days. And I believe it’s 90 days in a 180 day period, so they could do it all again in the back half of the year if they wanted to.

This will affect those Brits looking to live, work and study in the EU, not holidaymakers. Which is a good thing from the point of view of EU tourist economies.

redcup342

Sam Russell wrote: »

That is true for UK citizens, but not true for non-EU non-UK citizens but UK residents. Not all UK residents are free to travel visa free to Ireland (but by far the majority can).

That was never the case anyway even when the UK was part of the EU.

Nor did a Schengen Visa allow you to enter Ireland as a non-EU Citizen.

E.G. an Russian Person with permanent residence in Germany would need to get a visa to enter the UK but would need another Visa to enter Ireland.

Only exemptions were for Indians and Chinese I believe.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/british-irish-visa-scheme/british-irish-visa-scheme

yagan

Breezer wrote: »

I can’t see that happening so long as cheap flights and crap weather remain a thing. They could take a two week holiday in the Med six times and still be within the 90 days. And I believe it’s 90 days in a 180 day period, so they could do it all again in the back half of the year if they wanted to.

This will affect those Brits looking to live, work and study in the EU, not holidaymakers. Which is a good thing from the point of view of EU tourist economies.

True, but we're the closest alternative short hop for every brit waiting for their next 90 day Schengen period to start.

Obviously we're not an alternative for cheap sunny british ghettos on the costas, but I reckon we'll see some extra Irish Sea trippers.

It's going to be havoc for british families planning their annual costa pilgrimage if one of them used up their Schengen allowance for a football match. That's where you're going to hear lots of cribbing.

Quin_Dub

yagan wrote: »

True, but we're the closest alternative short hop for every brit waiting for their next 90 day Schengen period to start.

Obviously we're not an alternative for cheap sunny british ghettos on the costas, but I reckon we'll see some extra Irish Sea trippers.

It's going to be havoc for british families planning their annual costa pilgrimage if one of them used up their Schengen allowance for a football match. That's where you're going to hear lots of cribbing.

The bigger challenge will be for regular business travelers and/or Truck drivers etc.

Not hard to see how a Long distance truck driver for example blows through 90 days well before the calendar year is up.

What happens to one of those guys if they exceed the 90 days in August/September or whatever - Do they just not have a job until the clock resets?

redcup342

yagan wrote: »

True, but we're the closest alternative short hop for every brit waiting for their next 90 day Schengen period to start.

Obviously we're not an alternative for cheap sunny british ghettos on the costas, but I reckon we'll see some extra Irish Sea trippers.

It's going to be havoc for british families planning their annual costa pilgrimage if one of them used up their Schengen allowance for a football match. That's where you're going to hear lots of cribbing.

Well weirdly, Gibraltar has joined schengen now so they can't spend more than 90 out of 180 days in their own overseas Territory.

Gibraltar can approve their entry but Spain also have to approve also.

CelticRambler

yagan wrote: »

True, but we're the closest alternative short hop for every brit waiting for their next 90 day Schengen period to start.

There is no "next 90 day Schengen period" - they're all on the clock since Jan 1st, whether they've entered the Schengen zone or not, and it keeps ticking all the time - it's a rolling 180 days. So in one family, you could have the father up against his 90-in-180 limit because he went to a football match in February, the mother will hit it a fortnight later because of the conference she went to in March, the eldest child is already out of days because of a student exchange they went on around Easter, following a holiday to Europe's Christmas markets back in December; but the younger child still has the full ninety days because they haven't gone anywhere.

And don't forget: they'll all need their visa waivers as well from next year.

yagan

yagan wrote: »

True, but we're the closest alternative short hop for every brit waiting for their next 90 day Schengen period to start.

Obviously we're not an alternative for cheap sunny british ghettos on the costas, but I reckon we'll see some extra Irish Sea trippers.

It's going to be havoc for british families planning their annual costa pilgrimage if one of them used up their Schengen allowance for a football match. That's where you're going to hear lots of cribbing.

If I'm reading this right Irish hauliers are going to be major winners of Brexit.

EU operators can undertake unlimited journeys to, from and through the UK, with up to 2 cabotage movements in the UK, provided they are performed following a journey from the EU, and within 7 days of unloading in the UK.

No visa limitations for Irish hauliers in the UK or EU!

redcup342

yagan wrote: »

If I'm reading this right Irish hauliers are going to be major winners of Brexit.

No visa limitations for Irish hauliers in the UK or EU!

Not really any limit for EU Drivers in the UK either as the UK has a 6 month limit not 90 days.

Breezer

CelticRambler wrote: »

There is no "next 90 day Schengen period" - they're all on the clock since Jan 1st, whether they've entered the Schengen zone or not, and it keeps ticking all the time - it's a rolling 180 days. So in one family, you could have the father up against his 90-in-180 limit because he went to a football match in February, the mother will hit it a fortnight later because of the conference she went to in March, the eldest child is already out of days because of a student exchange they went on around Easter, following a holiday to Europe's Christmas markets back in December; but the younger child still has the full ninety days because they haven't gone anywhere.

And don't forget: they'll all need their visa waivers as well from next year.

Ah, I misinterpreted that slightly so, thank you. I still can’t see it being a major issue for those who might do a few away football matches and a week or fortnight in the sun a year. Which is the majority. It’s going to be about work and residency. Hauliers being a very good example.

amacca

Leroy42 wrote: »

IMO, that should be the first point of discussion before they go any further.

Johnson needs to stop the lies, stand up and actually lay out the reality to the UK. Stop blaming the EU for the NIP, for the EU being intransigent (they may well be and I'm sure there is plenty to be annoyed about but fighting in public helps nobody).

Tell everyone that the deal, including the WP, is the democratic will of the people of the UK. That it is going to be implemented in full, while the rougher edges will be sorted through discussion and mutual cooperation.

ONly then will the UK accept their part in this and that this isn't some plot by the EU, Ireland, Biden, China or whatever is the latest reason.

Unless they do that I can't ever see this working out as soon as they sort these issues, a whole load of new ones will emerge and the cycle starts again.

If they did that the jig would be up


That happens gradually over years not in one go. Being accurate, matter of fact, truthful etc would be some turn around (shock to the system) at this stage

No much better to continue to lie, obfuscate and transfer blame in the knowledge there's a good chance they will get elected next time and concentrate more wealth and power in their hands as the hard-core (misguided) block that voted for brexit will continue to and those that didn't won't see any alternative


What you are looking for is a leopard changing its spots.

joeysoap

Who is counting though? I ( admittedly as an EU citizen but saw it happening to UK citizens too when they were EU too) was often ‘waved’ through passport control in Faro airport.

After you clear security (modern, unmanned scanners) there’s two directions to follow, if you follow one there’s passport control, ( Ireland,UK and oddly enough Canadian flags displayed) the other is Schengen which if in you can unofficially use. Both lead to duty free. I have used Schengen one once or twice when I was running tight for time. No hassle.

Nody

joeysoap wrote: »

Who is counting though? I ( admittedly as an EU citizen but saw it happening to UK citizens too when they were EU too) was often ‘waved’ through passport control in Faro airport.

After you clear security (modern, unmanned scanners) there’s two directions to follow, if you follow one there’s passport control, ( Ireland,UK and oddly enough Canadian flags displayed) the other is Schengen which if in you can unofficially use. Both lead to duty free. I have used Schengen one once or twice when I was running tight for time. No hassle.

You answered your own question.

redcup342

joeysoap wrote: »

Who is counting though? I ( admittedly as an EU citizen but saw it happening to UK citizens too when they were EU too) was often ‘waved’ through passport control in Faro airport.

After you clear security (modern, unmanned scanners) there’s two directions to follow, if you follow one there’s passport control, ( Ireland,UK and oddly enough Canadian flags displayed) the other is Schengen which if in you can unofficially use. Both lead to duty free. I have used Schengen one once or twice when I was running tight for time. No hassle.

Frontex runs that.

It is possible in some airports to inadvertantly not get stamped.

I know 2 people it happened to through some screw up at Schiphol airport while connecting on their way to Dusseldorf (Indian Passport holders tho)

Next time they flew out to UK they were held until up at Border control in Dusseldorf as the Frontex system had no record of them entering Schengen and they were missing entry stamps as well.

Missed their flights because of it, basically if there is no border control you need to go and find one and get stamped.

CelticRambler

Breezer wrote: »

I still can’t see it being a major issue for those who might do a few away football matches and a week or fortnight in the sun a year.

Agreed - for the average Mr&Mrs Bloggs whose only direct contact with the EU is their two weeks in Benidorm, it won't be a particular problem. It's more that it's the fact that it won't be a particular problem most of the time for most people that'll be the problem - because it'll catch others out when they're not expecting it.

Remember that a "day" is not 24 hours - it's the bit of the day when you enter, the bit of the day when you leave, and all of the days you spend within the Zone. So the sample football trip could count for two or even three days even though the fans think of it as only one day.

It's also a "problem" in that if you're organising a trip for a UK passport holder (birthday treat, stag party, professional conference, etc) you'll have to know how many days they will have spent in the Schengen Zone in the 180 days prior to the end of the trip that you're planning.

For people who are used to travelling all over the continent, that'll be a real headache. And it's not just hauliers - it'll be sports people (amateur as well as professional), musicians and artists (and their fans), collectors attending exhibitions, people on specialist training courses, students on school tours and exchanges, family members who "go home" every other weekend ...

However, in practice, I think more people will be caught out by not having an up-to-date visa waiver, or not having 6 months left on their passport.

joeysoap

Nody wrote: »

You answered your own question.

I was referring to the automatic bag scanner. The bags could be anyone’s. But your boarding pass is scanned before security, but again they’re only boarding passes. It’s probably in all non Eu citizens interests to go through passport control. perhaps the days are counted there.

reslfj

yagan wrote: »

Breezer wrote: »

...And I believe it’s 90 days in a 180 day period...

... for every brit waiting for their next 90 day Schengen period to start.

The limit is 90 days in any 180 days period.

Staying more than 180 days out of any 365 days period in country X is by the way in most cases the limit where you will have to register for full (global) taxation in country X (EU or not EU).
Note taxation is by country and has noting to do with Schengen travel rules.

The 90 days of any 180 days is in Schengen and in each of BG, RO, CY and HR separately. Ireland is CTA - with special rules for UK and Irish citizens.

Even EU citizens are not allowed to stay longer than 90 days in any other EU member state, unless they have work, are students or have money/pension and also have health insurance.

Lars

PS! I know EU citizens working internationally that will never be more than 155-160 days out of any 365 days in one country and will never get closer to the 180 days limit. They keep documentation for their entering/leaving each country within the Schengen area, where passport are not checked or registered.

redcup342

reslfj wrote: »

Even EU citizens are not allowed to stay longer than 90 days in any other EU member state, unless they have work, are students or have money/pension and also have health insurance.

Of course you can, we are called cross border workers, I lived in the Netherlands for 7 years and worked in Germany.

You do kind of have local health insurance, except it's just a dummy policy (you don't pay for it) linked to the country where you work.

Tax is indeed totally seperate and is in general based on the 183 day rule (in the tax year) but it can be a bit more complicated than that.

The 90 day thing isn't really enforced in Schengen or the EU as its fairly impossible to police since there are no border checks anyway. Many Brits were in spain for years unregistered and that's an issue now as they didn't want to register before the deadline and draw attention to themselves (possibly having to back pay social security/taxes + fines)

You can easily go and live in spain for 6 months as an EU Citizen and work remotely, you should register a secondary residence tho and its pretty much just a formality, you don't need to pay and local taxes / social security etc.

If you go over the 183 day limit then you may be subject to Spanish Income Tax (this can get complicated for your employer if they have a presence in Spain)

CelticRambler

redcup342 wrote: »

The 90 day thing isn't really enforced in Schengen or the EU as its fairly impossible to police since there are no border checks anyway. Many Brits were in spain for years unregistered and that's an issue now as they didn't want to register before the deadline and draw attention to themselves (possibly having to back pay social security/taxes + fines)

The critical difference now between them - the British - and us EUropeans is that our "home territory" consists of 27+3 countries+5 microstates+1BOT so it effectively makes no difference where you spend your weekend. A romantic break in Paris, a football match in Barcelona, a shopping trip to Dublin, a Christmas Market in Austria, a head-office meeting in Berlin, a fashion show in Milan - for us, they count as nothing more than a change of scenery; but for the British, each trip counts towards the 90 days ... except their days in Dublin.

I'm pretty sure we'll hear stories of British citizens booking 3-month winter breaks in Spain or Greece or Malta finding themselves caught out because of that one weekend spent somewhere else in the Schengen Zone three, four or five-and-a-half months previously. The focus to date has been on the three-months in Spain; very little has been said about that three months including trips to every other Schengen country.

An Ciarraioch

The February trade stats have been published by the CSO - imports from GB for that month are still down by more than half (€1,392m > €650m), while those from NI have nearly doubled ((€145m > €283m):

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsfebruary2021/

Quin_Dub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The February trade stats have been published by the CSO - imports from GB for that month are still down by more than half (€1,392m > €650m), while those from NI have nearly doubled ((€145m > €283m):

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsfebruary2021/

Does that tell us that there is a bunch of "backdoor" imports from the UK either simply by picking a different depot location from the same supplier or some intermediary facilitating English/Welsh/Scottish companies transiting through NI?

An Ciarraioch

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Does that tell us that there is a bunch of "backdoor" imports from the UK either simply by picking a different depot location from the same supplier or some intermediary facilitating English/Welsh/Scottish companies transiting through NI?

Probably a bit of both - certainly trade between Larne and GB ports is said to be significantly higher than it was last year.

CelticRambler

Reuters reporting on a think-tank study of the effects of Brexit on the City of London.

It's not all bad news ... but:

we have identified more than 440 financial services firms in the UK that have responded to Brexit in some way by relocating part of their business, staff, or legal entities to the EU (a lot higher than our previous estimates). We have identified more than £900bn in bank assets (roughly 10% of the entire UK banking system) that have been or are being moved.

The worse news is that this analysis is almost certainly a significant underestimate of the real picture: many firms will have slipped below our radar (particularly banks and asset managers that are already headquartered in the EU).

...

We think a likely outcome is that around 300 to 500 mainly smaller firms may open an office in the UK, much lower than the prevailing forecasts of around 1,000.

And separately:

access to EU markets ... is unlikely to be forthcoming, so it is perhaps better for the industry to take the damage from Brexit on the chin and focus instead on recalibrating the framework in the UK so that it is more tailored to the unique nature of the UK financial services industry.

Another example of the damage being done by Johnson-Frost's amateurish approach to the negotiations, something that directly undermines their stated objective of being the biggest, best, world-beating everything. The longer Johnson maintains his "enemy at the gates" stance in respect of the NIP and all the willy-waving in respect of SPS regulations, the longer the EP will wait before ratifying the current deal, pushing the prospect of financial equivalence for the City further and further into the future, which gives the EU more time to bolster its own financial services sector and make the City a "nice to have" optional extra but something the EU can easily live without.

The end result (mostly forecast already on this forum):

... not jobs leaving the UK but new jobs in the EU being created in future that might otherwise have been created in the UK.

... £900bn in bank assets is roughly 10% of the UK banking system. The final tally is likely to be higher, which will reduce the UK’s tax base, supervisory influence, and ultimately have an impact on jobs.

... the shift in business, assets and legal entities will gradually chip away at the UK’s influence in the banking and finance industry in Europe and around the world

... could also significantly reduce the UK’s £26bn trade surplus in financial services with the EU as services that were previously exported from the UK are provided locally.

In summary: fewer jobs, lower export earnings, lower tax revenue, loss of influence. Not a lot of positive dividend.

CelticRambler

Meanwhile in Brussels (from the Guardian) ...

The EU also highlighted what appears to be a lack of detail in the roadmap the UK delivered to Brussels two weeks ago on implementation of the protocol.

Oh dear - so they're sticking with Frost's airy-fairy "we'll figure something out" strategy that worked so, so well the first time? :rolleyes:

I'm seriously wondering if this is a direct consequence of these (Tory) guys doing so much business with each other on the basis of nods and winks, kickbacks and not-so-gentlemanly agreements behind closed doors. It seems like they really do not have the slightest idea as to how to deal with state-level international partners.

Quin_Dub

CelticRambler wrote: »

Meanwhile in Brussels (from the Guardian) ...



Oh dear - so they're sticking with Frost's airy-fairy "we'll figure something out" strategy that worked so, so well the first time? :rolleyes:

I'm seriously wondering if this is a direct consequence of these (Tory) guys doing so much business with each other on the basis of nods and winks, kickbacks and not-so-gentlemanly agreements behind closed doors. It seems like they really do not have the slightest idea as to how to deal with state-level international partners.

It might be a bit of that , but it's more to do with the fact that the UK as an entity haven't negotiated a trade deal in almost 50 years and the last meaningful negotiation of any kind was the GFA.

In comparison the EU are churning out trade deals and updates to trade deals every couple of months and have been doing so for decades.


The UK are simply tragically , comically out of their depth here.