2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117932199#Comment_117932199

In response to my comment "Do you know what causes the most electricity blackouts? It’s storms knocking out our infrastructure. Climate change will make damaging storms more frequent and more powerful, and the worse we let it get, the worse those impacts will be."

you asked this question

"If Arctic Amplification is weakening the jetstream, how can we get stronger and more frequent storms?"

This entire thread is based on you trying to claim that a weakening Jet stream is incompatible with more damaging storms.

Oneiric 3

Reading some accounts here of weather in the UK in the first half of the 17th centrury:

Weather in History 1600 to 1649 AD (weatherweb.net)

Prolonged droughts; hot dry summers; cold wet summers; rainy winters; dry winters; brutishly cold winters; mild wet winters; prolonged spells of anticyclonic/cyclonic periods and the list goes on. All in the pre industrial period, but read it with the context of modern climate change in mind, and the evidence is right there, 4 centuries ago.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117932668#Comment_117932668

My question "If Arctic Amplification is weakening the jetstream, how can we get stronger and more frequent storms?" was questioning that very theory put forward by you and the "consensus", i.e. that the jet stream is getting weaker and yet storms are still supposed to get stronger. I don't agree with that theory, I was questioning it. I can't be any clearer.

Oneiric has also asked you to justify this theory but as yet you've managed not to.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117932196#Comment_117932196

Again, read up on dynamics. Strong jet streaks are what cause the strongest storms. Without this upper forcing, deep systems are unlikely.

I still think you're mixing up tropical and extratropical systems.

Akrasia

Its not me saying it, it's the latest scientific research

"we have shown that the summer 2018 featured a series of nearly simultaneous extreme weather events that coincided in time and space with a circumglobal teleconnection constituted by an amplified Rossby wave (wave-7) in the mid-latitude jet stream specifically over Eurasia. These extremes include the heat-records of June/July broken in Western Europe and Caspian Sea region, as well as the extreme and devastating rainfall events in South-East Europe. Tropical ENSO variability in 2018 was in a neutral state and thus unlikely to be an important factor behind the extreme weather events in the NH. The identified recurrent wave-7 circulation pattern conducive for heat waves acts in addition to the thermodynamically driven increase in heat, creating possibilities for very-extreme heat waves, specifically in the identified regions: Western Europe, North America and Caspian Sea region. We show that this circumglobal teleconnection pattern has increased in frequency and persistence in recent years"

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab13bf/pdf

Banana Republic 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117932180#Comment_117932180

Ya and I replied to that reply.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117934445#Comment_117934445

We've been talking about extratropical baroclinic storms for the past 2 days. What you're referencing above is heatwaves and convective storms. As I suspected, you were confusing batotropic with baroclinic, but heatwaves fall under neither.

Akrasia

You might have been talking about baroclinic storms, I didn't restrict my argument to any type of storm. I said that climate change will bring more frequent damaging storms which are more likely to cut off people's power than the tiny risk of a brownout that Danno was so worried about.. The kind of rainstorm that devastated Europe this summer, left hundreds of thousands of people without power for days.

You're the one who brought the jet stream into it

Oneiric 3

Bottom line is that 'storms' here in Ireland, which was the original point, are getting weaker and weaker. What would have been considered an average wild day/night 20 years ago is now so hyped up by the media and climate alarmists that you'd swear that the world was coming to an end ever time they occur, because, it seems, that Ireland isn't, and never was, located in one of the most notorious storm tracks in the northern hemisphere.

God help us if we get an actual real storm this coming winter.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117934635#Comment_117934635

Stop digging. The discussion was clearly about Ireland and wind power, with the inevitable talk of our storms getting bigger. You said

"Do you know what causes the most electricity blackouts? It’s storms knocking out our infrastructure. Climate change will make damaging storms more frequent and more powerful, and the worse we let it get, the worse those impacts will be."

So now you're saying you weren't talking about our Irish storms, you were talking about continental heatwaves and southeastern thunderstorms?

Danno

Ah here Akrasia, you're running around circles now. You must either be a politician or have major aspirations of being one with all the mud slinging in the hope that some sticks. Time and time again you've brought forward muddy claims of AGW only for the facts to be pointed out that your claim(s) are indeed built on muddy foundations.

The climate is changing a bit and will continue to do so and will meander between cooler and warmer spells throughout the rest of our lives and the generations to come. Humans are impacting the direction of this meander somewhat but not to the extent that is claimed.

It's high time to let technology to solve our current concerns, because one thing for certain is government won't without inflicting serious damage on society. Always remember you can buy your way out of capitalism, you've to shoot your way out of communism.

Banana Republic 1

https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-conversation-weekly/id1550643487?i=1000536380114

Podcast

Gaoth Laidir

Akrasia:

I said that climate change will bring more frequent damaging storms which are more likely to cut off people's power than the tiny risk of a brownout that Danno was so worried about.. The kind of rainstorm that devastated Europe this summer, left hundreds of thousands of people without power for days.

Just for your information, that was a baroclinic storm.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117934803#Comment_117934803

You’re completely wrong. You’re allowing your judgement to be clouded by your choice of media you consume. The same media that tells you Donald Trump will make America great again also tells you that reality is fake news.

what you call ‘a real storm’ is by definition an extreme and rare event. Storm Darwin, 7 years ago was ‘a real storm’

The most damaging storm on record (The big wind was almost 200 years ago and before reliable records)

Ophelia was 4 years ago and was another record breaking storm, that might have rivaled Darwin if she hadn’t already knocked down 7 million trees

2 once in a century storms within the last decade. We could not have another ‘real storm’ for 50 years and my claim that the most powerful storms are more common now would still be true

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117936193#Comment_117936193

Meander between cooler and warmer spells????

that’s a complete lie, unless you’re almost a pensioner you have never lived in a single year that was colder than the 19th century average temperature

Temperatures are going up

You want technology to solve our problems but your last post was scaremongering about renewable energy technology.

and you never answered my questions. What is the probability that we’ll see. Brownouts this winter?

I love technology btw, but government policies have a huge impact on what technologies succeed, we need governments to block polluting technologies and sponsor sustainable ones.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117936364#Comment_117936364

Thanks for the info, but it’s completely irrelevant to the point I am making

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117934912#Comment_117934912

The conversation was about Danno scaremongering about electricity blackouts. He blamed renewable energy for this risk and alleged that it was an existential threat for some people who could freeze to death. I was pointing out that every year we have storms that cut peoples electricity and climate change has and will continue to increase the strength of the most damaging storms. By the time we get to 3c, which is where we’re heading (and beyond) we’ll possibly see once in a century storms every few years.

My broader point is that Danno felt it urgent enough to warn us about a very small risk of temporary easily solvable brownouts this winter but consistently downplays the higher risk of much more severe, permanent consequences from failing to reduce our C02 emissions

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117936464#Comment_117936464

I know, you're saying that our (baroclinic) storms in Ireland will get stronger. That goes against your/the consensus' theory that the jet stream will get weaker. They can't both be right.

And around and around we go.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117936534#Comment_117936534

They can both be right because there are more factors than the false dichotomy you keep presenting

I think I’m just going to directly point out the logical fallacies in your posts from now on because you don’t seem to be aware of them

Oneiric 3

NAO index, which gives a clue to the extent of Arctic amplification on our side of the N. Hemisphere, for each January since 1950:

Why are we being told that Arctic amplification is increasing in the winter when literally the opposite is true?

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117936407#Comment_117936407

...

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117936428#Comment_117936428

A substantial part of the 1800s formed part of the Little Ice Age, so it's comparing apples and oranges. But close contenders in recent times include 1986 and 2010.

Temperature averages are indeed going up at present - but the question is, are these increases within the range of natural variabilities with some localised UHI and land use effects added on?

If highlighting how useless wind turbines are under cold winter high pressure systems is scaremongering then I don't know what to say to you. Around 10% of Irish households are totally dependent on electricity for their heating means, and this figure is going to increase rapidly in the coming years. Ireland is becoming more dependent on wind turbines for energy consumption and this means more houses are at risk of having no heating if the turbines don't generate. Much of Europe is heading in the same direction, so before you point out that interconnectors, etc... will save our butts from freezing - I certainly wouldn't like to be relying on others for wholesale electricity supply.

I want to see reliable renewable technology developed and deployed once it can deliver the same or better performance and cost than fossil fuels - in the mean time we should continue to use fossil fuels to keep people warm in their homes, and not tax them into oblivion for having the audacity to live.

Regarding brownouts this winter, it's possible - take a look at what is happening in the energy generation industry all across Europe and UK too. Have a read of this uncomfortable article: Ireland at risk of power cuts after new ‘amber’ warning (irishtimes.com)

Governments by and large have shown themselves as total a$$es, they create more problems than they solve. They only interfere in the market to suit their buddies and donors. Every politician who opens their pie hole about climate change should be forced to live off-grid for a year in the Donegal mountains as a penance.

Banana Republic 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117937011#Comment_117937011

I think we need a new time stamp going forward on the thread’ BCD, before Charles Dickens and ACD, After Charles Dickens.

Oneiric 3

A comment, complete with chart, I made back in March regarding storminess over Ireland (west coast specific)

2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters. - Page 10 — boards.ie - Now Ye're Talkin'

Akrasia's claim that Atlantic storms are becoming stronger over Ireland is totally false and a totally inversion of reality.

But he, or anyone else with an interest, or more than free to check the data for themselves via Met Eireann:

Met Éireann Forecast - The Irish Meteorological Service

Gaoth Laidir

Akrasia really doesn't have a clue what he's taking about when it comes to our winter/extratropical storms. Not much point in trying to repeatedly point out the facts because he just doesn't want to listen.

Here, have a read of this,

3. Jet, Jet streaks and 4-Quadrant Model by Uccellini

As mentioned above, the speed of a rapid cyclogenesis's development cannot be explained with the polar front theory alone; a different process is needed for a more detailed explanation. Rapid developments take place in the left exit region of jets and jet streaks. The structure of dark stripes along the rear edge of the frontal cloud band, which is best seen in WV images and Airmass RGB, also indicate that jets play an important role in the process of a Rapid Cyclogenesis.

Therefore, in addition to the development models of polar fronts and conveyor belts, upper air phenomena like the 4-quadrant jet streak model from Uccellini are taken into consideration and - as will be shown - play key roles.

And then if you want to dive into really beefy stuff, read Chapter 6 of Holton.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117937773#Comment_117937773

Here are Malin Head's daily maximum gusts from 1955-2021. The highest (88 knots) occured twice, once with ex-hurricane Debbie (15th Sep, 1961) and the other during that storm on 23rd Dec, 1997. Note the downward shift in recent years.

Gaoth Laidir

Speaking of Darwin, here are Shannon's max daily gusts. The Darwin 2014 gust of 86 knots was outdone by several higher gusts in earlier years, e.g. 89 knots in April 1947 and 93 knots during Debbie, 1961. Darwin was the only real standout gust this century.

Banana Republic 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117939347#Comment_117939347

What exactly is the point your trying to make with every time travel post.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117939693#Comment_117939693

Just highlighting how wrong Akrasia is, that's all.

Oneiric 3

It seems time travelling to the past is now not permitted by blow-in pre-programed spam bots who only want us to time travel to the future on a machine built on disinformation about the past.

But, by looking into the past, we have exposed two false narratives in one day, and I'm sensing unease.

Perhaps a Gov/Corp (neolib) sponsored 'Conversation' article will put us right though. How about it Nana?