Just for Fun: Overnight Low - January 8th-9th 2021

Danno

Spot Prediction Questions:

1: What will be the lowest temperature recorded tonight?
2: What station will record the lowest from Met Eireann's Network (including ACS Stations - see wow.met.ie or wow.metoffice.co.uk)

Update: Give your top three stations and values!

My guess: Thomastown ACS (Kilkenny) -9.6c
Tullow -8.9c
Durrow -8.7c

CirrusBusiness

CirrusBusiness _ -8.2c ___ Naas, Kildare County ___
_ -8.1c ___ Johnstown(Urlingford)__
_ -8.0c ___ Durrow

DOCARCH

Going for....

1: Tullow = -8.1c
2: Gurteen = -6.8c

Oak Park, Carlow...-7.8c

Zogabomb

Oak Park, -6.8

giveitholly

Gurteen -7.1°c

Kermit.de.frog

This thread will get a frosty reception OP

I'll get my coat :pac:

Supercell

Oak Park -7.8C

Danno

Just updated the OP - include your top three guesses!

The thread will lock at 2AM!

DOCARCH

Durrow should be disqualified from the competition!

circadian

Kilkit -5.2
Naas -6.5
Oak Park - 7.2

I think Malin Head will come in at the warmest around 3 degrees.

Larbre34

Dunsany, - 6.8.

pad199207

Naas -5.5°c
Durrow -6.4°c
Tullow -7.2°c

Monkeynut

Pfizer -70c
Tullow -7.9c

Danno

DOCARCH wrote: »

Durrow should be disqualified from the competition!

Photo evidence of the low temperature can be provided upon receipt of such requests in writing! :pac:

Just to add, Loch Glascarnoch at 250m in the west of Scotland is currently at -10.6c (not a typo or an error)!!!

piplip87

Ballyhaise -7.8
Mullingar -6.2

DOCARCH

Danno wrote: »

Photo evidence of the low temperature can be provided upon receipt of such requests in writing! :pac:

Make sure to take thermo out of freezer before photo!

Danno

DOCARCH wrote: »

Make sure to take thermo out of freezer before photo!

LOLs!!! :pac:

I'm busted folks before I even begin!

adam240610

Tullow -7.7 because that's the temp I said for the monthly weather forecast for mt hahaha

E: make it tullow, oak park, and carlow if three are needed, all -7.7

Darwin

Well given the automated met.ie temp forecast is showing -9 for my location tomorrow morning, let's try:

Lynally (Tullamore): -8.1c
Roscrea: -9.2c
Portlaoise: -9.0c

M.T. Cranium

-9.1 at Danno's location, -8.5 somewhere else within 50 km, I don't know the co-op network in much detail, but among the official stations, -7.4 at Oak Park.

esposito

I will go for:
Gurteen -8.2 C
Oak Park -8.1 C
Durrow: -7.8 C

John.Icy

Forgefield (S.Kildare, MetE WOW) -> -8.3c

Goldfinch8

Durrow -8.6c
Gurteen -8.4c
Mullingar -8.3c

pauldry

Dunsany -10c
Mullingar -9c
Gurteen -8.4c

Gaoth Laidir

Danno wrote: »

Just to add, Loch Glascarnoch at 250m in the west of Scotland is currently at -10.6c (not a typo or an error)!!!

There is a 13-cm covering of lying snow there, so no doubt helping the temps fall. Max today was -3.5 C.

When and how will the minima be determined? The synops report minima at 6 am, but at this time of the year the actual minimum is reached a couple of hours after that, so in that case it will have to be the daily data the following day. I don't think the WOW stations report actual minima, do they?

Anyway, my choices are

-6.3 Johnstown
-5.8 Oak Park
-5.3 Garrymore

Gonzo

Dunsany -8.4C
Oak Park -9.6C
Mullingar -7.2C

it's possible some places without any stations could get to -10C.

pad199207

Chilly over the snowfields near Edinburgh

SophieLockhart

2am sounds a bit late to close it lol

Gurteen -8.6
somewhereineverheardof -9.4

Gaoth Laidir

Gonzo wrote: »

Dunsany -8.4C
Oak Park -9.6C
Mullingar -7.2C

it's possible some places without any stations could get to -10C.

I doubt it. I can't see -7 being beaten. Current dewpoints are down to around -4 and should fall another couple of degrees. That will be the limit of the low temperatures.

Larbre34

Steady at -4 minima the last 2 obs, talk of -10 at any given station is a bit fanciful.

Darwin

I agree nothing that cold in the works this side of midnight, I think the question posted by Danno is a little ambiguous. If it covers post sunrise tomorrow, as GL alluded too, coldest part of this spell will be post 6am so -9c is possible. We still have snow cover in the driveway from Thursday.

Beechwoodspark

Oak park -7.1

Danno

Darwin wrote: »

I agree nothing that cold in the works this side of midnight, I think the question posted by Danno is a little ambiguous. If it covers post sunrise tomorrow, as GL alluded too, coldest part of this spell will be post 6am so -9c is possible. We still have snow cover in the driveway from Thursday.

Often the lowest temps of the night are just before sunrise, and as Obs are taken at 9am at climate stations, its unlikely that after 9am would go lower.

Hope this helps!

Oh, it's just for fun anyways!

CirrusBusiness

Darwin wrote: »

I agree nothing that cold in the works this side of midnight, I think the question posted by Danno is a little ambiguous. If it covers post sunrise tomorrow, as GL alluded too, coldest part of this spell will be post 6am so -9c is possible. We still have snow cover in the driveway from Thursday.

Surely the event we are guessing for is the lowest temp between tonight and tomorrow morning (say up to 9am). Most guidance suggests lowest temps occuring sometime between 04:00 and 08:00 tomorrow morning.

Mount Vesuvius

Naas, minus 8

Dew points might just fall a little lower than minus 6, we shall see.

daniel_t1409

Oak park, -8.6

nacho libre

- 7.5 Mullingar
- 7.6 Dunsany
- 8.1 Oak Park

Darwin

I'll just leave this here and see if it verifies (SW Laois):

Comhrá

Lynally, Tullamore, Co. Offaly -6.3c

Oak Park, Carlow -6.2c

Thomastown ACS -5.9c

Danno

Kilcogy (S.Cavan) https://wow.met.ie/stations/202101088kx9qw1t6we6zd9pyyb96sptuh

and Naas (E.Kildare) http://naasweather.com/

both first past the -5c hurdle!

Danno

Kilcogy -6.3c at 9.30pm!

Knew them Cavan lads wouldn't light a fire!

Villain

Dunsany -9.3c

mumo3

Current temp - 5 but it doesn't seem that cold

Danno

mumo3 wrote: »

Current temp - 5 but it doesn't seem that cold

Relatively still air and humidity is a little lower than usual.

Meanwhile, Kilcogy -6.4c, Dunsany and Navan ACS -5.8c.

JanuarySnowstor

Gurteen -9.2

Meteorite58

Durrow -10.1C
Dunsany -9.8
Johnstown -9.2C

highdef

Danno wrote: »

Relatively still air and humidity is a little lower than usual.

Meanwhile, Kilcogy -6.4c, Dunsany and Navan ACS -5.8c.

KILCOGY waste water treatment plant (Cavan) is down to -7° now.

M.T. Cranium

I see more overnight temperatures than anybody since that's when I'm active and preparing forecasts. So I can confirm that normally, the lowest temperatures there (as anywhere else really) occur just around sunrise, certainly in the three hourly obs that end with sunrise. There are of course exceptions, if cloud moves in over the entire country then most minima will be the hour of last clear skies.

As to dew point indicating likely minima, this is a reasonable guide but there is a tendency for temp/dp couplets to drop a few degrees after midnight, so a minimum dew point of -6 now does not guarantee a minimum of -6 later.

Then with regard to this contest, I would also point out that the auxiliary network generally runs a bit colder in terms of extreme low, one or two of the stations may be somewhat "frost hollow" situated and I've factored that into my guesses.

Rikand

KILCOGY ACS :: -8.5

Danno

Knock knock, just hit -6.0c here in southern Laois...

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ICOLAOIS2/graph/2018-02-28/2018-02-28/daily

and

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ICOLAOIS2/graph/2018-03-1/2018-03-1/daily

was during Storm Emma where -9.4c (AWS) and -9.7c (Stevensons Screen) was reached.

No wind tonight. No cloud either.