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Boards weather forecast contest for January 2021

  • 30-12-2020 8:36am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,616 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the IMT (average temperature at five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon), 1981-2010 "normal" was 5.1 C.

    2. Predict the MAX and

    3. MIN (each from the roughly 25 stations normally reporting on the met.ie website).

    4. Predict the PRC as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from eleven locations, the five mentioned in part one, plus these six: Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia).

    5. Predict the SUN as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia).

    6. Some guidance is suggesting a significant cold spell. What will be the maximum snow depth at Casement during January, and on which date? (no significant snow forecasts don't need a date) -- amount will be 7/10 of this bonus and timing will be 3/10 of the points awarded.

    Because I posted this rather late and there is the usual disruption of New Years involved, late penalties will be somewhat more lenient than usual, just 2 points for anyone coming in before 1500h 1st, and a maximum of 8 by 1500 2nd. After that it's a point an hour as usual. Any data already reported by the time of late forecasts, and used for those forecasts will be subject to spot deductions too (although I don't anticipate this will be a big factor).


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,604 ✭✭✭200motels


    200motels 5.3
    10.5
    -5.5
    94
    89 2cm 10th


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Not gonna lose -10 this time!

    SleetAndSnow 5.4_____11____ -4.2______ 91______ 85____ 3cm 11th


  • Registered Users Posts: 24 WesternStorm


    WesternStorm 4.5_____10.5____ -6.0______ 86______ 107____ 0cm (no significant snow)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Danno 2.7_____12.7____ -12.4______ 135%______ 65%____ 20cm 25th


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,670 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _____ 3.9 _ 13.1 _ -7.1 _ 085 _ 115 _ 4cm, 21st


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 700 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Bazlers_____3.3_____9.8_____-14.6_____85%_____105%______37CM 28th.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal _____ 3.2 _ 11.0 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 105 _ 10cm, 22nd


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 346 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 4.5° ___ 12.0 ___ -6.5 ___ 110 ___ 88 ___ 6cm, 6th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 194 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _____ 3.5_ 12.5 _ -8.0 _ 090 _ 110 _ 6cm, 28th


  • Registered Users Posts: 286 ✭✭eon1208


    4.3 _ 11.6 _ -6.6 _ 88% _ 107% _ 4cm, 14th January..


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,132 ✭✭✭John mac


    john mac_____ 4.3 _ 12.4 _ -5.1 _ 97 _ 105 _ no significant snow


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,193 ✭✭✭pauldry


    pauldry____ 4.5 _ 12.8_ -6 _ 90_ 115 _ 3cm jan 10th


  • Registered Users Posts: 734 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _____ 4.6 _ 13.1 _ -6.2 _ 122 _ 100 _ 5cm, 9th


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,057 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop___4.5___12.9__-6.2__80%__120%__2cm_ 9th Jan


  • Registered Users Posts: 573 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 _____ 4.6 _ 11.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 110 _ 30cm, 24th


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,195 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH____4.9___13.1____-5.2____090____110____7cm____13th


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,843 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa____ 4.4 _ 12.9_ -7.9 _ 120_ 96 _ 12cm Jan 19th


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,976 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo____4.3___13.3____-7.8____088____95____2cm____11th


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002____4.3___13.6____-6.7____085____110____3cm____22nd


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,871 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mrstonewall___4.3___12.8____-7.6___77___135___3cm___19th


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  • Registered Users Posts: 205 ✭✭CirrusBusiness


    CirrusBusiness___3.1__9.9__-11.2__120__75__28cm Jan 24th


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,616 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Craniummm ______ 2.9 __ 13.5 _ --14.5 __ 090 __ 120 ___ 20.5 18th

    Norma L _____________ 5.1 __ 14.5 __ --7.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 1.0 late in month

    (that would be the average of a lot of zeroes and a few much higher numbers, I suppose normally the outcome would be zero).

    Best wishes for 2021, the year that could not fail to be better, you would imagine (at least I would).


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7______ 1.1 __ 10.3_ -17.8 __ 085 __ 135 ___ 40cm 17th

    Happy New year to all, let's start 2021 with a bang ! (A very cold bang...)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 396 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner____5.2____13.3____-6.5____85____111____5cm____21st


  • Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    BLIZZARD7______ 1.1 __ 10.3_ -17.8 __ 085 __ 135 ___ 40cm 17th

    Happy New year to all, let's start 2021 with a bang ! (A very cold bang...)

    40CM wow


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,057 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Happy New Year everyone!

    OK starting to get a bit worried with M.T and Blizzard predictions.

    Snow of 28-40cm and min of -14 to -17.

    Please please not another 2010 on the way!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public 2.5____11.9____ -8.9____ 88____ 130____ 20cm 13th


  • Registered Users Posts: 378 ✭✭waterways


    Wish all a good start in 2021!


    waterways_____ 3.8_ 11.3 _ -7.4 _ 75 _ 115 _ 2, 5th


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ____________ 3.9 __ 12.1 __ --7.8__ 70 __ 130 ___ 2.0 ____20th


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    Funsterdelux_____________5.0______12.5________-7.5______90 _____95__, 5cm, 15th


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,239 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Better late than never!

    sdanseo ____________ 4.1_____10.9____ -7.0______ 92______ 117____ 2cm 17th


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,616 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for January 2021

    Something new for these tables, the actual time of posting when later than 0300h 1st is shown, from that I can calculate your late penalty which will show up in this table later. Any further entries will be edited in ... the late comers so far are all on the first of January. As noted in the contest announcement post, late penalties will be somewhat more lenient than usual because of my rather late posting of the thread (although it doesn't seem to have had much of an effect). Welcome back to all, or welcome in for one or two new entrants.

    Current late penalties (-2 to 1500h, -3 to 1900h, -4 to 2300h, now into -5 to 0300h, -6 to 0700h 2nd, -7 to 1100h 2nd, -8 to 1500h 2nd, adding 1 for each hour later than that).


    FORECASTER _ pen, late ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max snow Casement, date


    SleetAndSnow _______________5.4 _ 11.0 _ -4.2 _ 091 _ 085 _____ 3.0 cm __ 11th

    200motels __________________5.3 _ 10.5 _ -5.5 _ 094 _ 089 _____ 2.0 cm __ 10th

    Mr Skinner__________________5.2 _ 13.3 _ -6.5 _ 085 _ 111 _____ 5.0 cm __ 21st


    _____ NormaL ______________ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 1.0 cm __ (late)


    Funsterdelux __ -3 _ 1818h ___ 5.0 _ 12.5 _ -7.5 _ 090 _ 095 _____ 5.0 cm __ 15th

    DOCARCH __________________4.9 _ 13.1 _ -5.2 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 7.0 cm __ 13th

    Tae laidir __________________ 4.6 _ 13.1 _ -6.2 _ 122 _ 100 _____ 5.0 cm ___ 9th

    Dasa29 ____________________4.6 _ 11.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 110 _____30.0 cm __ 24th

    Appledrop __________________4.5 _ 12.9 _ -6.2 _ 080 _ 120 _____ 2.0 cm ___ 9th

    pauldry ____________________4.5 _ 12.8 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 115 _____ 3.0 cm __ 10th

    Kindred Spirit _______________4.5 _ 12.0 _ -6.5 _ 110 _ 088 _____ 6.0 cm ___ 6th

    WesternStorm ______________ 4.5 _ 10.5 _ -6.0 _ 086 _ 107 _____ 0.0 cm __ (no significant snow)

    Dacogawa _________________ 4.4 _ 12.9 _ -7.9 _ 120 _ 096 _____12.0 cm __ 19th

    Artane2002 ________________ 4.3 _ 13.6 _ -6.7 _ 085 _ 110 _____ 3.0 cm __ 22nd

    Gonzo _____________________4.3 _ 13.3 _ -7.8 _ 088 _ 095 _____ 2.0 cm __ 11th

    Mrstonewall ________________ 4.3 _ 12.8 _ -7.6 _ 077 _ 135 _____ 3.0 cm __ 19th


    _____ Con Sensus ___________4.3 _ 12.5 _ -7.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 5.0 cm __ 17th


    john mac __________________ 4.3 _ 12.4 _ -5.1 _ 097 _ 105 _____ 0.0 cm __ (no significant snow)

    Eon1208 ___________________4.3 _ 11.6 _ -6.6 _ 088 _ 107 _____ 4.0 cm __ 14th

    sdanseo ____ -5 __ 0119h 2 __ 4.1 _ 10.9 _ -7.0 _ 092 _ 117 _____ 2.0 cm __ 17th

    Adam240610_-7 __ 1041h 2 __ 4.0 _ 12.7 _ -7.7 _ 080 _ 125 _____15.2 cm __ 15th

    sryanbruen _________________3.9 _ 13.1 _ -7.1 _ 085 _ 115 _____ 4.0 cm __ 21st

    Jpmarn _____ -2 __ 1002h ____3.9 _ 12.1 _ -7.8 _ 070 _ 130 _____ 2.0 cm __ 20th

    waterways ___-2 __ 0954h ___ 3.8 _ 11.3 _ -7.4 _ 075 _ 115 _____ 2.0 cm ___ 5th

    Sunflower3 _________________3.5 _ 12.5 _ -8.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 6.0 cm __ 28th

    Bazlers ____________________3.3 __ 9.8 _-14.6_ 085 _ 105 _____ 37.0 cm __ 28th

    Bsal ______________________ 3.2 _ 11.0 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 105 _____10.0 cm __ 22nd

    CirrusBusiness ______________3.1 __ 9.9 _-11.2_ 120 _ 075 _____ 28.0 cm __ 24th

    M.T. Cranium _______________2.9 _ 13.5 _-14.5_ 090 _ 120 _____ 20.5 cm __ 18th

    Joe Public _____ -2 _ 0942 ____2.5 _ 11.9 _ -8.9 _ 088 _ 130 _____ 20.0 cm __ 13th

    Danno ____________________ 2.7 _ 12.7 _-12.4_ 135 _ 065 _____ 20.0 cm __ 25th

    BLIZZARD7 ______ __________1.1 _ 10.3 _-17.8_ 085 _ 135 _____ 40.0 cm __ 17th
    __________________________________________


    Have worked out Con Sensus, interesting this month that some of Con's picks are also "mode" picks meaning the most popular specific numbers, certainly PRC and SUN worked out that way, and IMT has a few straddling the median as well. The snowfall median is 5.0 cm but two have opted for no snow, the consensus date is the median of 28 forecasts and not surprisingly is beyond the range of the models (as of forecast time), indicating that many saw a potential for some snow early but thought it might improve later. Since the amount is a median amount, the skew means that the mean is a bit higher, it works out to 13 cm (closer to 12 if you count the two zero entries). The max snowfall date choices are as follows (asterisks mean additional picks):

    5 6 9* 10* 11* 13* 14 15* 17* 18 19* 20 21* 22* 24* 25 28* (no*)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,132 ✭✭✭John mac


    -4° overnight in Athenry and Gurteen


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 829 ✭✭✭adam240610


    Adam240610 4.0__12.7__-7.7__80__125__15.2cm__15th

    Sorry for late entry completely forgot


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,057 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Looks like it got down to-5 this morning at Athenry and Mt Dillon.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,670 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,616 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Have added Con Sensus to the table of forecasts as well as Adam240610, we have 30 forecasts, 28 calling for at least some measurable snow at Casement. The median forecast is 5.0 cm but the mean is closer to 13 cm due to several larger forecasts (skew distribution). Dates are scattered rather randomly through the month but the tendency is for the heavier forecasts to have the later dates (which makes sense given that the models were showing limited chances in the first ten days which conforms to those lower picks in the first third).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,057 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Markree Castle recorded -6. 3 last night according to Met Eireann

    I wonder if it will be even colder tonight?

    Mullingar is already at -4 at 10pm.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,057 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Official figure is -6.4 at Markree yesterday.

    The snow has arrived here at Dublin airport. Hope it did aswell at Casement!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,616 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I will have the usual first week report tomorrow, but the IMT to the 6th was only 1.2 C, and today is not going to move that much.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,616 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT 1.0, 4.3 below normal for the interval.

    MAX not tracked yet, MIN -6.3

    PRC 22% of normal.

    SUN about 160% (Valentia missing from report today)

    so far just traces of snow at Casement. 7th would be "max date" for most conspicuous trace, however, "no snow" will not lose points for trace amount dates, only if there was a measurable amount. (bonus will be scored 7/10 for amount and 3/10 for date, no snow = 10/10 if trace holds up).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,057 ✭✭✭appledrop


    -8 at Casement & Mullingar at 8am. Wow.

    It will be interesting to see official stats.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,195 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Overnight low of -8.2c at Dunsany and Mullingar.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,616 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Worth noting that the IMT sits at 0.6 C after nine days, and Casement is at 0.0.

    It will obviously rise to some extent over the next week, possibly to around 2.5 or 3.0, but latest model runs suggest it may come back down again after that. So we can't be sure this is the low point for the month.


  • Registered Users Posts: 734 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Thanks for the interesting update, MT. Casement within my 5km limit.
    I don't think there are any errors with readings or calculations!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,057 ✭✭✭appledrop


    I think we will finally get a max value today.

    Finner at 12 degrees at moment so we will see official data is when all complied tomorrow.

    Given how cold it has been all month, todays max value might hold out for rest of the month.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,193 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Hopefully it does but also hopefully that -8.2c is beaten too for snow lovers!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,843 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    pauldry wrote: »
    Hopefully it does but also hopefully that -8.2c is beaten too for snow lovers!

    I'm hoping it doesn't get beaten! We could have loads of snow between there and 0c, -8.2c seem fine to me. #vestedinterest :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,616 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After 12 days the IMT had recovered to 1.9 C and I estimate that after today it will sit around 2.3 C. Precip is probably up near normal now, or at least 75%, although it has remained dry in the south (Cork only 1 mm so far). Update coming on Friday anyway. Just for the record, 11.8 at Roches Point on 12th although today likely a bit milder in some places.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,057 ✭✭✭appledrop


    New max 12.8 Oak Park on 13th.


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