Boards weather forecast contest for January 2021

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (average temperature at five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon), 1981-2010 "normal" was 5.1 C.

2. Predict the MAX and

3. MIN (each from the roughly 25 stations normally reporting on the met.ie website).

4. Predict the PRC as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from eleven locations, the five mentioned in part one, plus these six: Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia).

5. Predict the SUN as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia).

6. Some guidance is suggesting a significant cold spell. What will be the maximum snow depth at Casement during January, and on which date? (no significant snow forecasts don't need a date) -- amount will be 7/10 of this bonus and timing will be 3/10 of the points awarded.

Because I posted this rather late and there is the usual disruption of New Years involved, late penalties will be somewhat more lenient than usual, just 2 points for anyone coming in before 1500h 1st, and a maximum of 8 by 1500 2nd. After that it's a point an hour as usual. Any data already reported by the time of late forecasts, and used for those forecasts will be subject to spot deductions too (although I don't anticipate this will be a big factor).

200motels

200motels 5.3

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10.5

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-5.5

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94

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89 2cm 10th

SleetAndSnow

Not gonna lose -10 this time!

SleetAndSnow 5.4_____11____ -4.2______ 91______ 85____ 3cm 11th

WesternStorm

WesternStorm 4.5_____10.5____ -6.0______ 86______ 107____ 0cm (no significant snow)

Danno

Danno 2.7_____12.7____ -12.4______ 135%______ 65%____ 20cm 25th

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _____ 3.9 _ 13.1 _ -7.1 _ 085 _ 115 _ 4cm, 21st

bazlers

Bazlers_____3.3_____9.8_____-14.6_____85%_____105%______37CM 28th.

Bsal

Bsal _____ 3.2 _ 11.0 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 105 _ 10cm, 22nd

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 4.5° ___ 12.0 ___ -6.5 ___ 110 ___ 88 ___ 6cm, 6th.

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _____ 3.5_ 12.5 _ -8.0 _ 090 _ 110 _ 6cm, 28th

eon1208

4.3 _ 11.6 _ -6.6 _ 88% _ 107% _ 4cm, 14th January..

John mac

john mac_____ 4.3 _ 12.4 _ -5.1 _ 97 _ 105 _ no significant snow

pauldry

pauldry____ 4.5 _ 12.8_ -6 _ 90_ 115 _ 3cm jan 10th

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _____ 4.6 _ 13.1 _ -6.2 _ 122 _ 100 _ 5cm, 9th

appledrop

Appledrop___4.5___12.9__-6.2__80%__120%__2cm_ 9th Jan

dasa29

Dasa29 _____ 4.6 _ 11.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 110 _ 30cm, 24th

DOCARCH

DOCARCH____4.9___13.1____-5.2____090____110____7cm____13th

dacogawa

Dacogawa____ 4.4 _ 12.9_ -7.9 _ 120_ 96 _ 12cm Jan 19th

Gonzo

Gonzo____4.3___13.3____-7.8____088____95____2cm____11th

Artane2002

Artane2002____4.3___13.6____-6.7____085____110____3cm____22nd

mr.stonewall

Mrstonewall___4.3___12.8____-7.6___77___135___3cm___19th

CirrusBusiness

CirrusBusiness___3.1__9.9__-11.2__120__75__28cm Jan 24th

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Craniummm ______ 2.9 __ 13.5 _ --14.5 __ 090 __ 120 ___ 20.5 18th

Norma L _____________ 5.1 __ 14.5 __ --7.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 1.0 late in month

(that would be the average of a lot of zeroes and a few much higher numbers, I suppose normally the outcome would be zero).

Best wishes for 2021, the year that could not fail to be better, you would imagine (at least I would).

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7______ 1.1 __ 10.3_ -17.8 __ 085 __ 135 ___ 40cm 17th

Happy New year to all, let's start 2021 with a bang ! (A very cold bang...)

mrskinner

Skinner____5.2____13.3____-6.5____85____111____5cm____21st

Snowbiee21

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

BLIZZARD7______ 1.1 __ 10.3_ -17.8 __ 085 __ 135 ___ 40cm 17th

Happy New year to all, let's start 2021 with a bang ! (A very cold bang...)

40CM wow

appledrop

Happy New Year everyone!

OK starting to get a bit worried with M.T and Blizzard predictions.

Snow of 28-40cm and min of -14 to -17.

Please please not another 2010 on the way!

Joe Public

Joe Public 2.5____11.9____ -8.9____ 88____ 130____ 20cm 13th

waterways

Wish all a good start in 2021!


waterways_____ 3.8_ 11.3 _ -7.4 _ 75 _ 115 _ 2, 5th

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ____________ 3.9 __ 12.1 __ --7.8__ 70 __ 130 ___ 2.0 ____20th

Funsterdelux

Funsterdelux_____________5.0______12.5________-7.5______90 _____95__, 5cm, 15th

sdanseo

Better late than never!

sdanseo ____________ 4.1_____10.9____ -7.0______ 92______ 117____ 2cm 17th

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for January 2021

Something new for these tables, the actual time of posting when later than 0300h 1st is shown, from that I can calculate your late penalty which will show up in this table later. Any further entries will be edited in ... the late comers so far are all on the first of January. As noted in the contest announcement post, late penalties will be somewhat more lenient than usual because of my rather late posting of the thread (although it doesn't seem to have had much of an effect). Welcome back to all, or welcome in for one or two new entrants.

Current late penalties (-2 to 1500h, -3 to 1900h, -4 to 2300h, now into -5 to 0300h, -6 to 0700h 2nd, -7 to 1100h 2nd, -8 to 1500h 2nd, adding 1 for each hour later than that).


FORECASTER _ pen, late ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max snow Casement, date


SleetAndSnow _______________5.4 _ 11.0 _ -4.2 _ 091 _ 085 _____ 3.0 cm __ 11th

200motels __________________5.3 _ 10.5 _ -5.5 _ 094 _ 089 _____ 2.0 cm __ 10th

Mr Skinner__________________5.2 _ 13.3 _ -6.5 _ 085 _ 111 _____ 5.0 cm __ 21st


_____ NormaL ______________ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 1.0 cm __ (late)


Funsterdelux __ -3 _ 1818h ___ 5.0 _ 12.5 _ -7.5 _ 090 _ 095 _____ 5.0 cm __ 15th

DOCARCH __________________4.9 _ 13.1 _ -5.2 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 7.0 cm __ 13th

Tae laidir __________________ 4.6 _ 13.1 _ -6.2 _ 122 _ 100 _____ 5.0 cm ___ 9th

Dasa29 ____________________4.6 _ 11.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 110 _____30.0 cm __ 24th

Appledrop __________________4.5 _ 12.9 _ -6.2 _ 080 _ 120 _____ 2.0 cm ___ 9th

pauldry ____________________4.5 _ 12.8 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 115 _____ 3.0 cm __ 10th

Kindred Spirit _______________4.5 _ 12.0 _ -6.5 _ 110 _ 088 _____ 6.0 cm ___ 6th

WesternStorm ______________ 4.5 _ 10.5 _ -6.0 _ 086 _ 107 _____ 0.0 cm __ (no significant snow)

Dacogawa _________________ 4.4 _ 12.9 _ -7.9 _ 120 _ 096 _____12.0 cm __ 19th

Artane2002 ________________ 4.3 _ 13.6 _ -6.7 _ 085 _ 110 _____ 3.0 cm __ 22nd

Gonzo _____________________4.3 _ 13.3 _ -7.8 _ 088 _ 095 _____ 2.0 cm __ 11th

Mrstonewall ________________ 4.3 _ 12.8 _ -7.6 _ 077 _ 135 _____ 3.0 cm __ 19th


_____ Con Sensus ___________4.3 _ 12.5 _ -7.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 5.0 cm __ 17th


john mac __________________ 4.3 _ 12.4 _ -5.1 _ 097 _ 105 _____ 0.0 cm __ (no significant snow)

Eon1208 ___________________4.3 _ 11.6 _ -6.6 _ 088 _ 107 _____ 4.0 cm __ 14th

sdanseo ____ -5 __ 0119h 2 __ 4.1 _ 10.9 _ -7.0 _ 092 _ 117 _____ 2.0 cm __ 17th

Adam240610_-7 __ 1041h 2 __ 4.0 _ 12.7 _ -7.7 _ 080 _ 125 _____15.2 cm __ 15th

sryanbruen _________________3.9 _ 13.1 _ -7.1 _ 085 _ 115 _____ 4.0 cm __ 21st

Jpmarn _____ -2 __ 1002h ____3.9 _ 12.1 _ -7.8 _ 070 _ 130 _____ 2.0 cm __ 20th

waterways ___-2 __ 0954h ___ 3.8 _ 11.3 _ -7.4 _ 075 _ 115 _____ 2.0 cm ___ 5th

Sunflower3 _________________3.5 _ 12.5 _ -8.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 6.0 cm __ 28th

Bazlers ____________________3.3 __ 9.8 _-14.6_ 085 _ 105 _____ 37.0 cm __ 28th

Bsal ______________________ 3.2 _ 11.0 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 105 _____10.0 cm __ 22nd

CirrusBusiness ______________3.1 __ 9.9 _-11.2_ 120 _ 075 _____ 28.0 cm __ 24th

M.T. Cranium _______________2.9 _ 13.5 _-14.5_ 090 _ 120 _____ 20.5 cm __ 18th

Joe Public _____ -2 _ 0942 ____2.5 _ 11.9 _ -8.9 _ 088 _ 130 _____ 20.0 cm __ 13th

Danno ____________________ 2.7 _ 12.7 _-12.4_ 135 _ 065 _____ 20.0 cm __ 25th

BLIZZARD7 ______ __________1.1 _ 10.3 _-17.8_ 085 _ 135 _____ 40.0 cm __ 17th
__________________________________________


Have worked out Con Sensus, interesting this month that some of Con's picks are also "mode" picks meaning the most popular specific numbers, certainly PRC and SUN worked out that way, and IMT has a few straddling the median as well. The snowfall median is 5.0 cm but two have opted for no snow, the consensus date is the median of 28 forecasts and not surprisingly is beyond the range of the models (as of forecast time), indicating that many saw a potential for some snow early but thought it might improve later. Since the amount is a median amount, the skew means that the mean is a bit higher, it works out to 13 cm (closer to 12 if you count the two zero entries). The max snowfall date choices are as follows (asterisks mean additional picks):

5 6 9* 10* 11* 13* 14 15* 17* 18 19* 20 21* 22* 24* 25 28* (no*)

John mac

-4° overnight in Athenry and Gurteen

adam240610

Adam240610 4.0__12.7__-7.7__80__125__15.2cm__15th

Sorry for late entry completely forgot

appledrop

Looks like it got down to-5 this morning at Athenry and Mt Dillon.

sryanbruen

-5.9C at Mt Dillon.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1345718689753161730?s=20

M.T. Cranium

Have added Con Sensus to the table of forecasts as well as Adam240610, we have 30 forecasts, 28 calling for at least some measurable snow at Casement. The median forecast is 5.0 cm but the mean is closer to 13 cm due to several larger forecasts (skew distribution). Dates are scattered rather randomly through the month but the tendency is for the heavier forecasts to have the later dates (which makes sense given that the models were showing limited chances in the first ten days which conforms to those lower picks in the first third).

appledrop

Markree Castle recorded -6. 3 last night according to Met Eireann

I wonder if it will be even colder tonight?

Mullingar is already at -4 at 10pm.

appledrop

Official figure is -6.4 at Markree yesterday.

The snow has arrived here at Dublin airport. Hope it did aswell at Casement!

M.T. Cranium

I will have the usual first week report tomorrow, but the IMT to the 6th was only 1.2 C, and today is not going to move that much.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT 1.0, 4.3 below normal for the interval.

MAX not tracked yet, MIN -6.3

PRC 22% of normal.

SUN about 160% (Valentia missing from report today)

so far just traces of snow at Casement. 7th would be "max date" for most conspicuous trace, however, "no snow" will not lose points for trace amount dates, only if there was a measurable amount. (bonus will be scored 7/10 for amount and 3/10 for date, no snow = 10/10 if trace holds up).

appledrop

-8 at Casement & Mullingar at 8am. Wow.

It will be interesting to see official stats.

DOCARCH

Overnight low of -8.2c at Dunsany and Mullingar.

M.T. Cranium

Worth noting that the IMT sits at 0.6 C after nine days, and Casement is at 0.0.

It will obviously rise to some extent over the next week, possibly to around 2.5 or 3.0, but latest model runs suggest it may come back down again after that. So we can't be sure this is the low point for the month.

Tae laidir

Thanks for the interesting update, MT. Casement within my 5km limit.
I don't think there are any errors with readings or calculations!

appledrop

I think we will finally get a max value today.

Finner at 12 degrees at moment so we will see official data is when all complied tomorrow.

Given how cold it has been all month, todays max value might hold out for rest of the month.

pauldry

Hopefully it does but also hopefully that -8.2c is beaten too for snow lovers!

dacogawa

pauldry wrote: »

Hopefully it does but also hopefully that -8.2c is beaten too for snow lovers!

I'm hoping it doesn't get beaten! We could have loads of snow between there and 0c, -8.2c seem fine to me. #vestedinterest

M.T. Cranium

After 12 days the IMT had recovered to 1.9 C and I estimate that after today it will sit around 2.3 C. Precip is probably up near normal now, or at least 75%, although it has remained dry in the south (Cork only 1 mm so far). Update coming on Friday anyway. Just for the record, 11.8 at Roches Point on 12th although today likely a bit milder in some places.

appledrop

New max 12.8 Oak Park on 13th.