Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

bish76

bish76 wrote: »

Okay, I have another 5000 to spend and every stock I have is RED. Where would you spend if you were in my situation ?
Will appreciate every bit of advice.

BABA (-10%)
BEP (-8%)
FROG (-18%)
LMND (-40%) this is 20% of portfolio
MILE (-22%)
Netflix (-4%) this is another 20% of portfolio
Redfin (-23%)
Relief thera (-17%)
TDOC (-16%)

Overall I am down by 10%

Thanks everyone for your responses. Decided not to further add to my portfolio for a while. At the moment mainly tech stocks are bleeding. Who knows if we are heading towards a overall market correction :mad:

cc87

riddles wrote: »

Ark ETF is down something like 40% YTD - if that folds we’ll see a further dramatic tumble on growth stocks. With exception of PLTR I exited everything she was buying as it stopped making sense.

All the ARK funds are at the same as they in Nov/Dec, before the big increases came. Hardly a reason to panic.

All of ARKs major holdings have 40%+ institutional holdings, some over 70%. Just because Cathy Wood/ARK are very public facing doesn't mean other funds aren't doing the same as them. It's hard to find proper numbers given how often they've bought but PLTR accounts for less than 1.5% of ARKs overall holdings. They might be buying but it's not a high holding overall.

cc87

Interesting index here from CNN
https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

DeanAustin

pioneerpro wrote: »

High Tide did a 15:1 Reverse split today! Should see it already on the Canadian listing, unfortunately FRA had a bloody suspension of trading for indefinite time due to delayed corporate action...

Had a bad week this week exacerbated by the fact I bet big on Tesla when it went to $600 on Wednesday and it kept falling. Looked this morning and I was down even more than I expected and it only dawned on me that High Tide is listed at €0 at the moment while they do the reverse split/consolidation.

Hopefully it'll get a bounce from the Nasdaq listing.

ADZAM

I've somehow found myself balls deep in Affirm (1,000 shares), currently trading at $48, my break even is $59 so I've analyzed this one a lot, sharing thoughts below:

A few reasons I'm optimistic about holding:
- Max Levchin the CEO is former co-founder of paypal, he's been at affirm 9 years and knows the payment space.
- they offer low interest finance solutions at checkout to pay in installments, merchants pay for affirm service as it increases checkout conversions.
- Buy now, pay later at checkout is a growing trend in eCommerce, only 4% of purchases today are online, with travel rebounding, people will book more expensive, luxury trips and will pay in installments (Expedia is an affirm partner).
- They are integrated partnered with key eCommerce players Walmart, Wayfair and Shopify.
- I've looked at the institutional ownership, Blockrock inc & Baillie Gifford own over 10 million shares at an average price of $70
- Shopify own 10% of Affirm - they could potentially get acquired by Shopify (or other ecommerce/fintech, amazon, paypal, square)
- it's been absolutely killed as the market turned on growth stocks, this one is down 65% from ATH. buy what's not in favour instead of chasing.

Risks:
- Competition: Klarna and Afterpay taking market share
- Credit Card companies make copy
- Market continue to poo poo growth stocks

Long (so long): AFRM

Mad_maxx

Tesla could drop a lot more before finding support , more surprising to me is Amazon , ive a buy order @ $3020

One More Toy

Any good book recommendations guys? Have an Easons voucher

Shedite27

One More Toy wrote: »

Any good book recommendations guys? Have an Easons voucher

Have ya read Morgan Housel's Psychology of Money?

One More Toy

Shedite27 wrote: »

Have ya read Morgan Housel's Psychology of Money?

Nope any good?

I just recently ordered 'more money than god' on book depository yesterday, I see Easons have it in stock so annoyed

growleaves

One More Toy wrote: »

Any good book recommendations guys? Have an Easons voucher

The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros

Liar's Poker by Michael Lewis

My two favourites.

DutchYurt

ADZAM wrote: »

I've somehow found myself balls deep in Affirm (1,000 shares), currently trading at $48, my break even is $59 so I've analyzed this one a lot, sharing thoughts below:

A few reasons I'm optimistic about holding:
- Max Levchin the CEO is former co-founder of paypal, he's been at affirm 9 years and knows the payment space.
- they offer low interest finance solutions at checkout to pay in installments, merchants pay for affirm service as it increases checkout conversions.
- Buy now, pay later at checkout is a growing trend in eCommerce, only 4% of purchases today are online, with travel rebounding, people will book more expensive, luxury trips and will pay in installments (Expedia is an affirm partner).
- They are integrated partnered with key eCommerce players Walmart, Wayfair and Shopify.
- I've looked at the institutional ownership, Blockrock inc & Baillie Gifford own over 10 million shares at an average price of $70
- Shopify own 10% of Affirm - they could potentially get acquired by Shopify (or other ecommerce/fintech, amazon, paypal, square)
- it's been absolutely killed as the market turned on growth stocks, this one is down 65% from ATH. buy what's not in favour instead of chasing.

Risks:
- Competition: Klarna and Afterpay taking market share
- Credit Card companies make copy
- Market continue to poo poo growth stocks

Long (so long): AFRM

Thanks for the info and DD might get in myself. I haven't seen the expression balls deep in a while, made me chuckle.

DutchYurt

pioneerpro wrote: »

High Tide did a 15:1 Reverse split today! Should see it already on the Canadian listing, unfortunately FRA had a bloody suspension of trading for indefinite time due to delayed corporate action...

The last Canadian weed company I had that did an R/S was Aurora - I lost 95% of what I put in which set my account massively to the red for 2+ years. I'm always cautious when it comes to reverse splits, weed companies and Canada haha

One More Toy

growleaves wrote: »

The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros

Liar's Poker by Michael Lewis

My two favourites.

Read liars poker as well!

pioneerpro

DutchYurt wrote: »

The last Canadian weed company I had that did an R/S was Aurora - I lost 95% of what I put in which set my account massively to the red for 2+ years. I'm always cautious when it comes to reverse splits, weed companies and Canada haha

Completely understandable - which is why I only hold Tilray from the grower side. Huge volatility over the Canadian flower sellers.

High Tide, in contrast, is a retail play. They've both the #1 and #2 eCommerce Paraphenalia stores, all the important celebrity tie-ins outside of GRAMF, and the most vertical integration of any of them. They're a play that will run on sentiment with federalisation, without being exposed to the sort of downsides that Aurora endured.

Granted, I am a little worried about pullback - a bit like the MindMed uplisting - but this is a very high conviction play for me long. They've done absolutely everything right and positioned themselves very well for the next decade.



https://hightideinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/High-Tide-Investor-Presentation-2021-01-18.pdf

pioneerpro

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Tesla could drop a lot more before finding support , more surprising to me is Amazon , ive a buy order @ $3020

There's a bit of a 3 card monte game being played at the moment viz a viz DOGE/BTC w/TSLA and the more pertinent green new deal play they're quietly pivoting towards at the moment...

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/exclusive-tesla-seeks-entry-into-us-renewable-fuel-credit-market-sources-2021-05-12/

They are going to come out shining.

neris

One More Toy wrote: »

Any good book recommendations guys? Have an Easons voucher

When genius failed

cc87

Viacom, $VIAC, is looking an interesting prospect at the moment.

Down to $38 from a recent high of $100. Current PE 8.5. It's annual revenue is the same as its market cap, $25b
Streaming revenue about $240m higher than Roku
Owns most of the tv shows with the highest viewership.
Owns rights and/or distribution rights to a lot of big move franchises including Marvel
Paramount+ is available on Amazon Prime, Apple TV, PS, Xbox, Iphone, Android. Added 6mil new subscribers Q1. Is cheaper than other streaming sites, has rights to NFL and UEFA games.

pioneerpro

Shedite27 wrote: »

Have ya read Morgan Housel's Psychology of Money?

Best book recommendation on the thread. All of Michael Lewis' books are worth reading as well - very engaging author. If anyone's unfamiliar with Lewis outside of The Big Short, I'd start with possibly the best economic journalism piece of the last decade:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010

For the more Technical/Practical stuff would also throw 'Common Stocks And Uncommon Profits' By Philip A. Fisher.

If you have the patience and the Burry-esque mentality, 'Security Analysis' By Benjamin Graham from the 50s is still absolutely gold, and contains my single most important guiding principle for investing:

“In the Short-Run, the Market Is a Voting Machine, But in the Long-Run, the Market Is a Weighing Machine”

cronos

cc87 wrote: »

Viacom, $VIAC, is looking an interesting prospect at the moment.

Down to $38 from a recent high of $100. Current PE 8.5. It's annual revenue is the same as its market cap, $25b
Streaming revenue about $240m higher than Roku
Owns most of the tv shows with the highest viewership.
Owns rights and/or distribution rights to a lot of big move franchises including Marvel
Paramount+ is available on Amazon Prime, Apple TV, PS, Xbox, Iphone, Android. Added 6mil new subscribers Q1. Is cheaper than other streaming sites, has rights to NFL and UEFA games.

Recent high was a bit of a falsehood though based on the hedge fund that went bankrupt on the back of it.

Still seems a decent bet at this price I'd have thought.

bfa1509

Can you short an ETF? It's not something I would ever do, but one thing I noticed is that the volitility ETFs (e.g. Lyxor S&P 500 VIX) never maintain a higher level, they always spike up and then very gradually lower again. I recon one could exploit this on a particularly turbulent market situation.

pioneerpro

bfa1509 wrote: »

Can you short an ETF? It's not something I would ever do, but one thing I noticed is that the volitility ETFs (e.g. Lyxor S&P 500 VIX) never maintain a higher level, they always spike up and then very gradually lower again. I recon one could exploit this on a particularly turbulent market situation.

Yep, just not an index fund.

bfa1509 wrote: »

volitility ETFs (e.g. Lyxor S&P 500 VIX)

VIX known as the 'fear and greed' index for a reason

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

yer man!

What's the general opinion on LMND these days? Price has really plummeted over the last few weeks and I'm wondering if it could be a good buy now.

crushproof

I see GEVO has limped back in life today.

Shedite27

yer man! wrote: »

What's the general opinion on LMND these days? Price has really plummeted over the last few weeks and I'm wondering if it could be a good buy now.

My opinion on lemonade hasn't changed, they're here to disrupt one of the oldest industries and are going about it as planned. It was never going to be a 6 month project. Have a read up on them, they've landed in European countries with a lot of products that are profitable here. I wouldn't be surprised to see them appear on our radar as consumers by the end of the year.

If you've an hour, listen to their recent earnings call, they're so far ahead of everyone in their thinking it's mind boggling.

Ignore the "price has plummeted" stuff, price plummeted because it got too far ahead of itself. The problem was that the price rose too much, not that it fell. Customers numbers are up, average premiums are up, bigger than expected losses due to the freeze in texas, I suspect no insurers saw Texas freezing over.

GoldFour4

yer man! wrote: »

What's the general opinion on LMND these days? Price has really plummeted over the last few weeks and I'm wondering if it could be a good buy now.

Personally I think they've taken on too much too soon in terms of product offerings with life insurance being introduced recently and car cover not too far away.

There is certainly some potential in terms of their use of robotics etc but who knows how well that will scale with new classes of business - i.e. I can't imagine you could settle a car claim with a personal injury element in the timelines that Lemonade likes to promote itself with.

Cpfm

yer man! wrote: »

What's the general opinion on LMND these days? Price has really plummeted over the last few weeks and I'm wondering if it could be a good buy now.

mywallst agree with you on that one. I'll be buying more next week when I get my hands on some more cash... plan to bring down BEP on lemonade, Etsy, Atlassian, ABNB and TDOC.

Good day today, green all round (but still down a bit).

Underground

Shedite27 wrote: »

My opinion on lemonade hasn't changed, they're here to disrupt one of the oldest industries and are going about it as planned. It was never going to be a 6 month project. Have a read up on them, they've landed in European countries with a lot of products that are profitable here. I wouldn't be surprised to see them appear on our radar as consumers by the end of the year.

If you've an hour, listen to their recent earnings call, they're so far ahead of everyone in their thinking it's mind boggling.

Ignore the "price has plummeted" stuff, price plummeted because it got too far ahead of itself. The problem was that the price rose too much, not that it fell. Customers numbers are up, average premiums are up, bigger than expected losses due to the freeze in texas, I suspect no insurers saw Texas freezing over.

Yeah, I hate to get overly simple about it but customers love using Lemonade. That's not something you usually hear about insurance companies. As long as that continues to be the case I'm hopeful.

*disclosure - current LMND bag holder.

cronos

Judith Great Balance wrote: »

Good day today, green all round (but still down a bit).

Let's hope this is just the start of a trend back upwards. Need another 10 days like this just to get back to a few weeks ago. It's more of a moral boost at this stage haha.

Treppen

DutchYurt wrote: »

The last Canadian weed company I had that did an R/S was Aurora - I lost 95% of what I put in which set my account massively to the red for 2+ years. I'm always cautious when it comes to reverse splits, weed companies and Canada haha

Same here, ACB were a basket case so glad I got out.

High tide seem to be retracing up again though! I've been reading a lot of negative sentiment about reverse splits not going well, if they weather this out then it's a good sign.