What does Ireland get in relation to a no deal Brexit?

Melanchthon

Since the Brexit thread is mainly about how the Tories are dodgy idiots I thought a more focused thread that's explicitly about the Republic of Ireland in the event of a no deal Brexit might be in order.

Specifically what mitigation measures is Ireland likely to receive from the EU in the event of a no deal Brexit, remember according to the ERSI a few years ago Ireland was going to take a hit as large as the UK in this event, this has hopefully changed but it's still likely to have severe impacts.

We know that Ireland received one of the lowest amounts of money from the EU Covid bailout.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/news-opinion/pat-flanagan-column-wealthy-ireland-22411700

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2020/0718/1154061-eu-meeting/

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ireland-to-get-1-3bn-for-covid-19-response-from-eu-deal-1.4310280

This deal which is factual terrible for Ireland was apparently mitigated by the fact a Brexit fund was implemented

Ireland also helped secure a €5 billion reserve fund for sectors and countries worst hit by Brexit in the negotiations, and an increase of the national cut of customs duties collected that will help pay for increased infrastructure at ports. There are also a number of smaller funds to which Ireland can apply for assistance.

However in light of recent commentary that Macron who is a far more powerful figure in the EU than Martin is looking to lay claim to substantial amounts of the fund.


www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ireland-could-lose-out-as-france-lays-claim-to-most-of-5bn-brexit-compensation-fund-1.4419405

If there is a no deal particularly one that's partially triggered by Macron muscular stance on Brexit.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-talks-macron-shores-up-his-position-at-home-with-hard-stance-on-fishing-nmcmkd3m9

https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN28B59P


What's going to happen? Can the Irish economy survive a year of Covid with minimal support and then a hard Brexit.

Please resist the urge to make this about how bad the UK is going to have it because there is already a whole thread on that.

Fr Tod Umptious

I think we could be in for a tough time OP.

At a micro level if there is no deal then getting products to shop shelves and home delivery will be much harder because like it or not so much goes through the land bridge.

Yes there are new ferries from France and possibly Netherlands to Ireland but it will take a good while for them to make up the capacity of the land bridge.

On a political or macro level if like the article you linked implies and Ireland will not get the economic support from the EU it was expecting (or promised) then the sense of Ireland and the EU being together in this will sour from the Irish publics POV.

Once the UK are gone and the Brit bashing is over we will have to turn our ire somewhere else.

BoJack Horseman

Melanchthon wrote: »

Specifically what mitigation measures is Ireland likely to receive from the EU in the event of a no deal Brexit,

Nothing.

Given that the Irish people will proportionality bear the hardest burden in repaying the EU's 'covid relief fund'.

Any crumbs of 'brexit relief' will fall on us to repay as well.

Brussels Sprout

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Given that the Irish people will proportionality bear the hardest burden in repaying the EU's 'covid relief fund'.

Any evidence for this statement?

Melanchthon

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Any evidence for this statement?

I am having trouble finding good links with the actual breakdown as this topic has been downplayed significantly by Irish media. I don't think Ireland is actually getting the least per capita but it's up there only behind places that are wealthier countries like Denmark or Luxembourg.

www.statista.com/chart/amp/21842/proposed-grants-for-eu-member-states-to-counter-covid-19-recession/

Edit: anybody able to find a decent per capita chart? GDP would also be useful but as we know for Ireland that's much less accurate for our real wealth.

correct horse battery staple

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I posted a graph in another thread few days back, but out of all EU countries (including UK) Ireland is doing second best during covid economy shrinkage wise

For all the talk about "being shafted" the country is actually doing quite well all things considered, the UK is second from bottom after Spain in 2020

So covid hasn't stopped people buying iphones then?

Who'd have thought it

correct horse battery staple

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I posted a graph in another thread few days back, but out of all EU countries (including UK) Ireland is doing second best during covid economy shrinkage wise

For all the talk about "being shafted" the country is actually doing quite well all things considered, the UK is second from bottom after Spain in 2020

PUP was good for the economy. So will UBI when it's introduced. Good to see.

Melanchthon

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I posted a graph in another thread few days back, but out of all EU countries (including UK) Ireland is doing second best during covid economy shrinkage wise

For all the talk about "being shafted" the country is actually doing quite well all things considered, the UK is second from bottom after Spain in 2020

I have seen similar things posted before but without coming of like a conspiracy but I think there is some sort of mismatch/ mis-measurement or massaging of figures going on.

Tourism to Italy accounted for 13% of GDP last year and that sector has been completely devastated, I've been told by Italians I know of them visiting places that have huge queues normally and it being completely empty.

Similarly Spain tourism makes up 10-11% of GDP.

Basically what those charts show is that either tourism didn't get hugely reduced - which isn't true.
That tourism did take a big hit but the rest of the economy functioned at literally 100% - which isn't true.
Which leads to the question how does Italy only loose 9.9% of GDP when a sector that contributes 13% of GDP has been catastrophically curtailed? Note as well Italy has not had as generous a Covid payment scheme as Ireland to inflate other demand.

Simple answer is those stats demand closer attention as something is suspicious.

moon2

Melanchthon wrote: »

I have seen similar things posted before but without coming of like a conspiracy but I think there is some sort of mismatch/ mis-measurement or massaging of figures going on.

<Snip>

Simple answer is those stats demand closer attention as something is suspicious.

The simple answer is that a sufficient number of sectors boomed over the lockdown to partially offset the loss in gdp.

I'm on my phone and finding the supporting info is a little tricky, but this is a good starter: https://www.natlawreview.com/article/reflections-covid-19-views-italy

Melanchthon

This is a good short article that highlights why the UK figure is off in comparison.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/is-economic-output-an-accurate-measure-of-the-covid-19-impact/

ArmaniJeanss

Melanchthon wrote: »

I have seen similar things posted before but without coming of like a conspiracy but I think there is some sort of mismatch/ mis-measurement or massaging of figures going on.

Tourism to Italy accounted for 13% of GDP last year and that sector has been completely devastated, I've been told by Italians I know of them visiting places that have huge queues normally and it being completely empty.

Similarly Spain tourism makes up 10-11% of GDP.

Basically what those charts show is that either tourism didn't get hugely reduced - which isn't true.
That tourism did take a big hit but the rest of the economy functioned at literally 100% - which isn't true.
Which leads to the question how does Italy only loose 9.9% of GDP when a sector that contributes 13% of GDP has been catastrophically curtailed? Note as well Italy has not had as generous a Covid payment scheme as Ireland to inflate other demand.

Simple answer is those stats demand closer attention as something is suspicious.

Jan - March probably performed close to normal.
The rest of the year seems to have been a reduction of around 35% in hotel stays (which admittedly probably translates to more than 35% in room rates).
So whilst it's bad, its not 9.9% -> 0.00 bad.

Remember there was still relative ease of travel from Germany, Austria, Switzerland to Italy during the summer months.

The lack of a queue as seen by your friends doesn't necessarily mean the museum was empty. Possibly just that people were able to get in and spend without the inefficiency of standing outside for 2 hours spending nothing.

Melanchthon

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

That article talks about quarterly results which are all over the place this year

I posted a link to year to date results

You must have read the article very selectively because it's not to do with the quarterly thing it's to do with measures of GDP

But in the UK, the ONS statisticians took account, among other things, of the reduced formal schooling, so output fell. The same applied to the health sector, with operations cancelled and A&E attendance down.

If we look at the UK data, we see that some of the biggest output falls were in these large areas. Of the 20% fall in GDP, 4% is the result of falls in education and health output.

Anyway can we please have a thread that doesn't go the standard route about UK/Trump = bad and everything else being ignored

Melanchthon

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Jan - March probably performed close to normal.
The rest of the year seems to have been a reduction of around 35% in hotel stays (which admittedly probably translates to more than 35% in room rates).
So whilst it's bad, its not 9.9% -> 0.00 bad.

Remember there was still relative ease of travel from Germany, Austria, Switzerland to Italy during the summer months.

The lack of a queue as seen by your friends doesn't necessarily mean the museum was empty. Possibly just that people were able to get in and spend without the inefficiency of standing outside for 2 hours spending nothing.

Yeah taking a look at moon2's link now which has more detail.
International tourism down 58% and domestic down 31%, I will admit I would have thought the impact would have been higher.

Based on analysis published by ISTAT, Covid-19 has had a severe impact also on the manufacturing sector (-15%), as well as mechanical (-18.8%) and domestic appliances (-22.1%).

On the other hand, Covid-19 has had a positive impact for certain on other sectors.

Analysis conducted by Mediobanca suggests that companies operating in the web and in software services have been those who benefitted most (+17.4% compared to the first semester of 2019), followed by major distribution groups (+ 9.1%), pharmaceuticals (+6.1%), online payment system providers (+4.7%), electronics (+4.5%) and food (+3.4%).

Maybe I am have the wrong perception of Italy but I think they still have a substantial segment of manufacturing, mechanical and domestic appliances and not such a big IT sector (basically the opposite of Ireland)

moon2

Melanchthon wrote: »

You must have read the article very selectively because it's not to do with the quarterly thing it's to do with measures of GDP

I knew a bit about the limitations of using GDP as a measure of a countries success, but this really shines a light on how the same sequence of events in different countries, with similar real world impact, could be represented very differently in the final GDP figure.

seamus

Melanchthon wrote: »

Yeah taking a look at moon2's link now which has more detail.
International tourism down 58% and domestic down 31%, I will admit I would have thought the impact would have been higher.

It's something we see a little less of in Ireland because you can cross the country and back again inside a day, but business travel makes up a surprisingly large amount of the "tourism" figures that other countries see, especially domestic.

The big hits are in airlines and luxury/resort destinations. 3-star Hotel chains - the like of Travelodge - are still doing half decent business from regular work travel.