Cheltenham Open Meeting (Sunday)

del roy

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)


1.50 – Planteur At Chapel Stud Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m3 1/2f ITV


16/18 – Had won a 3m+ race over fences before
16/18 – Had run at Cheltenham before
15/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Aged 8 or younger
12/18 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
11/18 – Had won between 3 and 5 times over fences before
11/18 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
10/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Officially rated between 135 and 146
9/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/18 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
8/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/18 – Ran at either Cheltenham (6) or Sandown (2) last time out
6/18 – French bred
3/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 4 years)
2/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by Fergal O’Brien (2 of last 7 years)
West Approach (11/4 fav) won the race in 2019
Rock The Kasbah (9/1) won the race in 2018
Perfect Candidate (7/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1


TQ VERDICT: WEST APPROACH landed this race 12 months ago and will be a popular choice to do so again. This 10 year-old took this prize by 3 lengths last year and despite being 6lbs higher this time returned at Cheltenham last time out with a fine second to show he’s still at a good level of form. That runner-up effort also became behind the useful Frodon last time, while the extra few furlongs here will also be in his favour. The Tizzard yard have won two of the last four runnings of this race too and Harry Cobden catches the eye in the saddle. Captain Drake is another to consider after winning well at Uttoxeter last time out but is up 5lbs here and the form has taken a few knocks since. Yala Enki would be interesting if there was a lot of rain, but in recent seasons has tended to need a run after a break. So, the other of interest is CLOTH CAP, with a light weight. This Jonjo O’Neill runner was third to Frodon here last time out – therefore, has a bit of ground to find with West Approach, but that was his first run of the season and is also dropped 2lbs. He’s another that should also like the step up in trip and with only 10-4 to carry that will help.


2.25 – Shloer Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV


10/11 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Officially rated 150+
9/11 – Won on seasonal reappearance
9/11 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
9/11 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd
8/11 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
8/11 – Went onto run in the Champion Chase (1 winner, Sprinter Sacre 2015)
7/11 – Failed to win last time out
7/11 – Aged 7 or older
6/11 – Favourites that won
5/11 – Carried 11-0 to win
5/11 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
4/11 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/11 – German bred
3/11 – Raced at Aintree last time out
Defi Du Seuil won the race in 2019
Seaux Royal won the race in 2018


TQ VERDICT: A cracking renewal of this Grade 2 and all eyes will be on DEFI DU SEUIL who won this race 12 months ago, to see if he can bounce back to form after flopping in the Champion Chase here in March. He’s still only 7 years-old and has proved many times in the past that he can return to form when some people have written him off and I’ll take him to do so again. The Hobbs yard are starting to fire in a few winners so that’s a good sign and Richard Johnson, who has won on him before, is taking over in the saddle from the now retired Barry Geragthy. Rouge Vif is certainly going the right way and was a tidy winner here last month, but that was in a handicap so will need to progress and I’d rather have the main Irish raider – Put The Kettle On – over him after beating the Whittingham runner by just under 20 lengths when taking the Arkle Chase here in March. Put The Kettle On is now 2-from-2 at the track and this classy mare will also get 10lbs from the likes of Defi Du Seuil here which brings her right into the mix. If running Sceau Royal, who won this race in 2018, will have his supporters too after winning well twice over hurdles, but I’d probably keep up over the smaller obstacles. Riders On the Storm and Duc Des Genievres are others that would have a chance – the former was last seen falling in the Ryanair Chase here in March. He was in with a shout in that race at the time, but I’m not sure the drop back to 2m will suit.


3.00 – Unibet Greatwood Hurdle (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

16/18 – Had won a 2m1f (or further) hurdles race before
16/18 – Had won no more than 4 times before over hurdles
14/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/18 – Had a recent run (within the last 6 weeks)
12/18 – Officially rated 140 or higher
12/18 – Finished in the top two last time out
12/18 – Had run at Cheltenham before
11/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/18 – Had run 6 or less times over hurdles
10/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or further
8/18 – Carried 11-4 or more
8/18 – Placed favourites
7/18 – Came from the first three in the betting
7/18 – Won their previous race
6/18 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/18 – Winners that carried 11-12
4/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/18 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Winning favourites
1/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 10/1
6 of the last 11 winners contested the previous season’s Supreme Novices’ or Triumph Hurdle


TQ VERDICT: We saw the Alan King-trained Harambe win this race 12 months ago but off a 6lb higher mark he’s got more to find – we’ve not had a back-to-back winner of the race going back to 1987. Horses aged 4 and 5 have the best records – winning 14 of the last 18, while 13 of the last 18 winners had had a recent run in the last 6 weeks. The Alan King yard have also won 2 of the last 3 runnings so as well as having last year’s winner – Harambe – they also have a big chance with the 6 year—old Edwardstone. He showed a lot of promise around this time last season but was well down the field in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival in March and needs to bounce back. In his defence the quicker ground here will be a lot more to his liking and he’s been freshened up – he can go well. Tegerek was a tidy winner over this CD last time and looks progressive, but his is harder and he’s up 8lbs this time. Proschema has the form to go well too, but he I’d just be worried about him getting up the hill as he’s not really progressed as many thought he would. It’s hard to knock the Pipe runner – Main Fact – too after winning on the flat recently and prior to that winning five times over hurdles – in total, he’s won his last 8 races under both codes. It’s hard to know where he’s going to end up – he could keep on progressing, but does return on a 15lb higher rating over the sticks. The old-boy Ballyandy should go well at a venue he loves and will be popular with the e/w backers, but there is no hiding place with the handicapper for him these days. So, the two I like are the Paul Nicholls-trained TYYME WHITE and the Philip Hobbs runner OAKLEY (e/w), if running. The former is up 11lbs for winning at Chepstow last time out but he won by an easy 3 lengths that day and the runner-up has since franked the form by running the useful Botox Has to 4 lengths here last month. Yes, he flopped a bit in the Fred Winter here in March, but the better ground will help and at the age of just 4 years-old he’s clearly still learning the game – with another summer on his back he can be a better horse this season. Oakley was 15 lengths behind Saint Roi in the County Hurdle here in March but has run well at the track prior to that and with the Hobbs yard starting to fire in some winners he looks interesting with just 10-9 to carry.

SIR PSYCHO (P Nicholls) – There is enough to suggest that the 4yo will have needed his run last time out at Chepstow (3458 off a break of 121+ days compared to 14511 off a break of 60 days or less)and he only gave way at the last, either fitness or lack of stamina (race was 2m3.5f) doing for him there. He’ll be fitter for that outing and will also appreciate the shorter trip and it’s worth noting that 2 of Paul Nicholls 3 winners of this race were 4yo’s, both of which had 1 previous start in the season and had also previously run at the track.


3.35 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Sharp Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV


16/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/16 – Won last time out
13/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles
12/16 – Favourites that finished in the top three
11/16 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
9/16 – Had won a NH Flat race before
9/16 – Aged 5 years-old
8/16 – Carried 11-7 in weight
8/16 – Went onto run in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1 winner, Altior)
8/16 – Irish bred
6/16 – Aged 4 years-old
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Won by the Nicholls stable


TQ VERDICT: Some promising novice hurdlers on show here, but it’s hard to not be taken by the way the Dan Skelton-trained THIRD TIME LUCKI has been winning his races recently. He’s 2-from-2 over hurdles after easy wins at Uttoxeter and Wetherby and even though this is a step up in grade, let’s not forget he was only beaten 6 lengths in the Champion Bumper here in March so has mixed it with some good horses in the past. He’s also tasted the track before so that’s a plus and is taken to continue his winning run over the sticks. He will face stern opposition from the Paul Nicholls-trained Fidelio Vallis, who ran the useful Mrs Hyde close in a Listed Hurdle at Kempton last time, whole the Fergal O’Brien runner – Courtandbould – is yet to finish out of the first two from 5 runs over hurdles and ran the useful McFabulous to 3 lengths in the Persian War Hurdle at Chepstow last time, which is very solid form. For Pleasure is better than his last run when down the field in the same race Fidelio Vallis finished second in at Kempton – he likes to get on with it from the front and we can expect a better showing this time, but in the process might just set things up for one of the others. Of the rest, the Jessie Harrington runner Jungle Junction is interesting coming over from Ireland, while the Snowden entry – Pisgah Pike – is going the right way and can’t be totally ruled out if finding a bit more improvement.

RivetingRoger

Defi Abacadabras double for me
Absolute last chance for Abacadabras today
Praying for a return to his 2019 form

supremenovice

Abracadabras - the next Harchibald? Cruises through the field but finds nothing in an eyeball battle. Tomorrow will tell us more

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del roy wrote:

TQ VERDICT: Some promising novice hurdlers on show here, but it’s hard to not be taken by the way the Dan Skelton-trained THIRD TIME LUCKI has been winning his races recently. He’s 2-from-2 over hurdles after easy wins at Uttoxeter and Wetherby and even though this is a step up in grade, let’s not forget he was only beaten 6 lengths in the Champion Bumper here in March so has mixed it with some good horses in the past. He’s also tasted the track before so that’s a plus and is taken to continue his winning run over the sticks. He will face stern opposition from the Paul Nicholls-trained Fidelio Vallis, who ran the useful Mrs Hyde close in a Li

Who's TQ?

zpehtsfd

Worse 50/1 shots then Tudor City in the Greatwood. Same mark now as when he won the Galway Hurdle if you take the 7ib claim off. Don't think connections would send him there without a live chance.

Also really hoping Abacadabras shows some spark tomorrow. Has won on soft to heavy before so no excuses.

Gavin "shels"

All aboard the Defi Du Seuil train! Can't split Discorama & West Approach... Disco was one of my big bets back in March so still slighting hurting.

Fancy Chavi Artist in the opener in Punch, 10/1. Saint Roi & Abacadabras will be a good battle, but it's Saint Rois to lose imo.

RivetingRoger

I don't usually talk amounts here but.....
I have lumped on tmrw lads
Abacadabras Defi double
I am hugely confident €820 down confident

Ccoommee oonnn

The Mig

Couldn’t trust DDS with stolen money after what happened in march. Couldn’t trust Abra either absolute bridle horss

Plasandrunt

I am also on the DDS/Aba's double but €800 less than Roger has staked

Slattsy

The Mig wrote: »

Couldn’t trust DDS with stolen money after what happened in march. Couldn’t trust Abra either absolute bridle horss

What was the excuse for March? Was there one? He carries these if he's back to his best.

Not sure Abra is a bridle horse at all man. Look at the Supreme when Shishkin went up, he definitely found again. Simply idled as he was in front far too soon. Anyway not sure you'll see the best of him until March. If he's beaten today he could end up being a helluva price.

The Mig

He’s definitely the best horse in the race no doubt. Not sure if there was any excuse for March came to light. He bombed out at the meeting 2 years ago in the Arkle trial but won this race last year. He can go and win for all he likes today but couldn’t trust backing him at 13/8

gazza1

Big interest for me today with both Saint Roi and Latest Exhibition running
Hopefully they can put in a good showing.

With regards to todays racing, everything is in Saint Roi's favour today. He wasn't given a hard race last time and still looked impressive in cantering to victory. Hes also had more recovery time from his previous run and also, Willie Mullins has won this race for the past 9 years and this is his only entry this year.

DDS could very easily win today but I just can't understand anyone backing him after what he did at the CC. Surely you would want to just see how he gets on. A race to watch.

Only bet today is Edwardstone in the Greatwood

GL

The Mig

Backed Jason The Militant at 14s there. Will love the heavy ground and only finished a short head behind Abra the last day. 7 times the price of it. Will do me!

Coneygree

Defi losing and PTKO winning would be great. Defi is my big fancy for the Ryanair at this stage and he steps up in trip if he loses today. I can't have PTKO for the Champion Chase so a win for her and the prices on everyone else will be much sweeter.

I've Saint Roi and Aba as my two to beat Epatante so a solid showing from both will do for now, especially from the latter.

Finally get to see The Big Breakaway out. Hopefully Tizzard hasn't had him hauling carts around the farm and has actually trained him a bit. Huge fan of the horse going forward.

RivetingRoger

Best day of NH so far this year boys
Magic stuff
Hup the Defi! Hup the Aba!

Niallers87

Gavin "shels" wrote: »

All aboard the Defi Du Seuil train! Can't split Discorama & West Approach... Disco was one of my big bets back in March so still slighting hurting.

Fancy Chavi Artist in the opener in Punch, 10/1. Saint Roi & Abacadabras will be a good battle, but it's Saint Rois to lose imo.

Nice call on chavi artist!!

del roy

Who's TQ?





Trainer quotes.

Slattsy

Not Mark Walshs best ride.

AnniePowwa

Mess of a race none of them are champion hurdlers anyway

carq

yeah looks like the better horse, poor ride to get him stuck behind horses.

RivetingRoger

What's this love affair with Saint Roi? Best horse won
Some very bitter ****e on RTV and UTV

hawaii501

Nothing for Goshen to worry about anyway

Johner

Would not trust Abracadabras in a proper finish anyway. I’d say he’d be a good each way bet in the champion but in a top class race I wouldn’t trust his battling qualities.

Rabbit Redux

Abacadabras will make a fine chaser. Doesn't look a Champion Hurdle horse.

Slattsy

Hope Defi comes in for ya Roger

Pogue eile

RivetingRoger wrote: »

What's this love affair with Saint Roi? Best horse won
Some very bitter ****e on RTV and UTV

Saint Roi most certainly the horse to take from the race, and I mean its not even debatable. I say that as someone who also backed Abra.

The Mig

Saint Roi defo the best horse in the race

AnniePowwa

Defi du ****e

The Mig

Just don’t know what Defi will turn up

Coneygree

Last season must have ripped the soul out of Defi. At least he has to be brought back up to 2.5

RivetingRoger

Johner wrote: »

Would not trust Abracadabras in a proper finish anyway. I’d say he’d be a good each way bet in the champion but in a top class race I wouldn’t trust his battling qualities.

Strange comment considering he literally just battled to win a tight race

Daraa

Whats Saldier being aimed for this year? Champion Hurdle again?

AnniePowwa

Coneygree wrote: »

Last season must have ripped the soul out of Defi. At least he has to be brought back up to 2.5

Stuffed by chacun pour soi, stuffed by politologue and now stuffed again he's pure hype and always has been

RivetingRoger

Saint Roi will have a lovely view of Epatantes big arse in March

supremenovice

Defi might be finished but JP has Le Richebourg to come in as a super sub for the Champion Chase

Slattsy

supremenovice wrote: »

Defi might be finished but JP has Le Richebourg to come in as a super sub for the Champion Chase

Good point. Lot to prove though before you'd think of backing him.

Dr. Bre

Defi de pig

Coneygree

AnniePowwa wrote: »

Stuffed by chacun pour soi, stuffed by politologue and now stuffed again he's pure hype and always has been

Ah come on now, multiple grade 1 winner over hurdles and fences, twice winner at the festival. If he's always been just pure hype then there must be only a handful of great horses ever. Don't kick the toys out of the pram.

lemush

Bar a veteran UDS, you would struggle to name one genuine top class two miler that he has beaten over fences.

Pogue eile

Coneygree wrote: »

Ah come on now, multiple grade 1 winner over hurdles and fences, twice winner at the festival. If he's always been just pure hype then there must be only a handful of great horses ever. Don't kick the toys out of the pram.

If you can find a post where Annie is complementary of any horse you'd be doing well, they are all rubbish, pigs, donkeys etc.

Francie Barrett

Shambles at Fontwell.

Johner

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Strange comment considering he literally just battled to win a tight race

He is a very good horse and I think he’ll be seen to good effect in a Champion Hurdle with a strong pace and he will travel well but I get the feeling something will always out battle him up the hill. Saint Roi did everything wrong today and still finished very close to him.

RivetingRoger

Johner wrote: »

He is a very good horse and I think he’ll be seen to good effect in a Champion Hurdle with a strong pace and he will travel well but I get the feeling something will always out battle him up the hill. Saint Roi did everything wrong today and still finished very close to him.

He did exactly that today..........
There is this social media group think love in with Saint Roi, its mad stuff
Abacadabras did exactly today, what everyone said he couldn't do, ie Scrap and fight out a win.

If Abacadabras lapped Saint Roi, came back, threw SR up on his back and carried him home, some would still say Saint Roi was the one to take from the race

NaiveMelodies

Anyone think Latest Exhibitions run wasn't too bad?
He's a fine jumper of a fence and probably didn't need it that heavy today.
Wins the RSA. No question about it.

IAMAMORON

I think todays and yesterdays results at Punchestown need to be taken into context with the ground, it looked very heavy and sticky. I would not be using it as a rock solid form guide for these horses in the spring. Saint Roi still has it too prove, although that is not the first time I have seen Mark Walsh give a good horse a bad ride.

I don't think it is fair for punters to be giving Abacadabras much stick either, he won the race fair and square. I don't think it was a vintage renewal but he did show improvement from the last time at Down Royal. If you take away the underperformance the last time the only horses to have beaten him are Envoi Allen, Shiskin and Colreavy. He is a good racehorse.

I think the ground caught out Latest Exhibition and I would not lose faith in him either.

Gavin "shels"

Gavin shels wrote: »

Fancy Chavi Artist in the opener in Punch, 10/1.

Hope someone backed it... Completely forgot to myself given the poxy day that was in it for Shels my eyes were off the horse racing

Slattsy

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Anyone think Latest Exhibitions run wasn't too bad?
He's a fine jumper of a fence and probably didn't need it that heavy today.
Wins the RSA. No question about it.

Slightly. As I thought he'd win tbh. But he wants a trip and better ground. Wouldn't be writing him off. Thought he jumped really well the whole way around.

That said, I'd still have Monkfish to beat him in the RSA.

akelly02

AnniePowwa wrote: »

Stuffed by chacun pour soi, stuffed by politologue and now stuffed again he's pure hype and always has been

haha five grade 1s including a tingle creek, beating lostintranslation twice


yea hes useless sure.

just because hes finished now doesnt mean he easnt ever any good.

best juvenile hurdler around the year he won the triumph, and was awesome in his jlt win.

great horse.

RivetingRoger

akelly02 wrote: »

haha five grade 1s including a tingle creek, beating lostintranslation twice


yea hes useless sure.

just because hes finished now doesnt mean he easnt ever any good.

best juvenile hurdler around the year he won the triumph, and was awesome in his jlt win.

great horse.

That Annie character is a bit like the horse herself
. Not to be trusted

akelly02

RivetingRoger wrote: »

That Annie character is a bit like the horse herself
. Not to be trusted

dont put down the great annie power like that

IAMAMORON

AnniePowwa wrote: »

Stuffed by chacun pour soi, stuffed by politologue and now stuffed again he's pure hype and always has been

I respect that you are entitled to an opinion, but calling a seven time Grade 1 winner over hyped will just get other posters assuming you're full a shight, not good.

Some French breds get over the top and lose appetite a year or so earlier than Irish or UK breds, it happens as they start earlier. This horse has had issues in 2018 and I am sure there are current issues now. But he is not over hyped.

His scalps include

Un des Sceax, Politilogue, Lost in Translation ( twice) , Topofthegame ,etc etc.

Furthermore quoting Chacun Por Soi as been the next Moscow Flyer really gets up my nerves, the chunt has only run 4 phucking times and has beaten a few stablemates out for jogs and the only time he had a race got stuffed by A Plus Tard. He might turn out to win a lot more races, but until he turns up on track and starts winning biggies I won't be writing any superlatives for the time being. As it stands the only horse he has beaten is one you reckon is overhyped in a novice chase late season 2 years ago. He has simply an awful lot to prove and just because you might drink pints in Carla town, Borris or Leighlinbridge and hear pub spoofers spitting out names of overpriced French imports that are going to burn the track up, I would advise you to watch the races for a change.