Vacant Properties in Ireland

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Forgive me I don’t know all the ins and outs to the fire safety cert issues, I have not been following it.

Is there a remedy? I.e can some of these buildings be fixed to obtain a fire safety cert or do they have to be knocked?

I don't know.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

I don't know.

I suspect this issue not reflected in the figures I am drawing my conclusions from and is irrelevant to the big picture

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

I suspect this issue not reflected in the figures I am drawing my conclusions from and is irrelevant to the big picture

what is you conclusion that there is vacant property but you don't know if it is inhabitable or not?

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

what is you conclusion that there is vacant property but you don't know if it is inhabitable or not?

I’ve probably made 50 posts on this in this last week alone, and god knows how many over the last few months so forgive me if I give you the short version - which is the housing shortage is a myth.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

I’ve probably made 50 posts on this in this last week alone, and god knows how many over the last few months so forgive me if I give you the short version - which is the housing shortage is a myth.

you have made so many posts arguing about which figure is correct that God knows what your opinion is hence me asking

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

you have made so many posts arguing about which figure is correct that God knows what your opinion is hence me asking

That’s why I am not keen to start another argument! I think the best figures to use are the CSo. But the GeoDirectory figures support my conclusions as well.

Marius34

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Vacancy deniers now after we had property bulls.

So some here think there is 60-100k houses that are vacant and with a small investment can be bought onto the market. That these will flood onto the market over the next few years from hedge/vulture funds or from executor sales.

We say that the lower figure is right at 60k. Split these are spread equally around the country there will be around 18k of them in Dublin, 3-4k in Cork and 500-1500in every other county.

Now the thing about executor sales is they are always part of the market even if they doubled it unlikely they hugely effect the market. Now these mysterious houses owned by these vulture funds. It unlikely be be in single houses but in blocks of apartments or houses that were bulk purchased.

On reading the census report I recall seeing that about 65k of the vacant houses were vacant in 2010 and in 2016. It questionable how many of these are habitable or capable of being returned to the housing stock without serious investment.

I would not believe that we have 65K good empty properties, not in use that could be added on the market. If they are apartments with fire safety issues, it could cost a lot. I believe big part of those 65K are properties in country side are in bad conditions. It may cost a lot to bring house from F/G energy rating to comfortable C/D rating, without even talking of a costs of internal work. It may worth in good areas, but not worth in cheap areas.

hometruths

More interesting number from GeoDirectory. Prior to Q2 2016 GeoDirectory did not include vacancies.

In Q2 2016 GeoDirectory used census data to analyse vacancies and seemed to be perfectly satisfied that it was good methodology and data.

Q4 2016 - Geo found 198,358 vacancies - they continued to use the census as base level data and calculated that the vacancies numbers had risen

Q2 2017 - they changed methodology and reported 96,243 vacancies. They gave no reason why they decided to change their definition of a vacant dwelling, but it coincided with the kerfuffle about high levels of vacancies in a housing crisis and Minister Murphy's view that the CSO “is not necessarily wrong, they have a different definition of ‘vacant dwelling’ than the man on the street might have” and the need to “work with the CSO to agree a definition of ‘vacant dwelling’.”

Q4 2017 - they stopped reporting the actual number for some reason and instead but gave %s - the national % of 4.8% equates to 94,768 vacancies

Q2 2018 - it was 95218

Q4 2018 - it was 95696

Q2 2019 - it was 96436

Q4 2019 - it was 94674 - finally a drop nationally!

However this drop is not quite the cause for celebration it might seem at first glance.

As GeoDirectory reported in December 2018:

Dublin is the county with the lowest vacancy rate at 1.1%, however it was one of only seven counties to experience an increase in vacancy rates, up 0.3pp on its corresponding rate last year.

It is surprising to discover that Kildare, Wicklow and Meath were also amongst the only seven counties to experience an increase in vacancy rates.

This trend has continued.

So basically the areas where demand is strongest, where supply is tightest, where the housing crisis is at its most acute, are the only areas in which vacancy numbers are consistently rising.

Can anyone explain that?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

So basically the areas where demand is strongest, where supply is tightest, where the housing crisis is at its most acute, are the only areas in which vacancy numbers are consistently rising.

Can anyone explain that?

Possibly increase number of new builts. Some people can take over 6 months, from when building completed to actual move it. Flooring, appliances, curtains, etc..

Bass Reeves

Marius34 wrote: »

Possibly increase number of new builts. Some people can take over 6 months, from when building completed to actual move it. Flooring, appliances, curtains, etc..

I build around 1990,I subcontracted the house from starting to dig foundation to moving into the house was 7 months. But there was no internal decoration done at that stage. But we had a roof over our head.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Possibly increase number of new builts. Some people can take over 6 months, from when building completed to actual move it. Flooring, appliances, curtains, etc..

Seems unlikely given that would be "construed as dwellings which might not normally be classified as vacant in the context of vacant long term, but would represent more of a transition or temporary vacancy rate", which as we know GeoDirectory deliberately does not measure.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Seems unlikely given that would be "construed as dwellings which might not normally be classified as vacant in the context of vacant long term, but would represent more of a transition or temporary vacancy rate", which as we know GeoDirectory deliberately does not measure.

6 months and longer, typically is classified as long term vacancy.

cnocbui

I think there is probably an issue with the CSO methodology. There are currently 5 properties near me that are vacant. They may look habitable from the outside, but internally they are not. They are Celtic Tiger leftovers which were presumably never completed due to a lack in funds or their projected completion cost became less than the prevailing market value so no further funds were sunk into them.

It would be utterly fallacious of the CSO to rate these properties as vacant and habitable, but suspect they, and probably many others like them, were counted.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

6 months and longer, typically is classified as long term vacancy.

Ok, fair enough, given the number of anecdotal reports we hear of property owners:

A) preferring to leave properties vacant long term because of previous problems with tenants, or reluctance to establish a rent price history because of RPZs, or deciding tax implications of being a landlord not worth it, or preferring airbnb model

versus the number of anecdotal reports we hear of:

New build buyers happy to leave their new homes vacant long term because they're only delighted living with mammy and daddy or they're quite happy being beholden to their landlord

I'm not saying no new build buyers are leaving their new homes vacant long term, but which do you think might be a more likely explanation of the rising vacancies given the above - A or B?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Ok, fair enough, given the number of anecdotal reports we hear of property owners:

A) preferring to leave properties vacant long term because of previous problems with tenants, or reluctance to establish a rent price history because of RPZs, or deciding tax implications of being a landlord not worth it, or preferring airbnb model

versus the number of anecdotal reports we hear of:

New build buyers happy to leave their new homes vacant long term because they're only delighted living with mammy and daddy or they're quite happy being beholden to their landlord

I'm not saying no new build buyers are leaving their new homes vacant long term, but which do you think might be a more likely explanation of the rising vacancies given the above - A or B?

None.
If talk around new builds that recently has been bought.
From my experience, for those who took over 6months to move in, reasons:
C) Time (people busy with their jobs), money (It can cost over 20K for internal work & appliances), difficulty to find labor.

Timing belt

Marius34 wrote: »

None.
If talk around new builds that recently has been bought.
From my experience, for those who took over 6months to move in, reasons:
C) Time (people busy with their jobs), money (It can cost over 20K for internal work & appliances), difficulty to find labor.

That makes sense. I also think that there will be an element of A. In the past a house may have been rented short term (up to a year) whilst it was getting ready to be sold etc but a lot of people won’t do that anymore due to rent regulation and will just leave it empty as renting it out is more trouble than it’s worth. Either way I don’t thInk it has much impact on overall house prices.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

That makes sense. I also think that there will be an element of A. In the past a house may have been rented short term (up to a year) whilst it was getting ready to be sold etc but a lot of people won’t do that anymore due to rent regulation and will just leave it empty as renting it out is more trouble than it’s worth. Either way I don’t thInk it has much impact on overall house prices.

It certainly has an impact on rents. Which in turn has an impact on house prices.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

None.
If talk around new builds that recently has been bought.
From my experience, for those who took over 6months to move in, reasons:
C) Time (people busy with their jobs), money (It can cost over 20K for internal work & appliances), difficulty to find labor.

Note to self. You cannot make the horse drink!

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Note to self. You cannot make the horse drink!

Can't help with that..

some random articles/reports telling Dublin housing shortage, you can find many more:
"Due to an acute shortage of housing stock"
https://www.businesspost.ie/property-insight/five-key-takeaways-from-the-task-force-on-dublin-housing-supply-f31fd88b

"With
growing populations, high rental prices, and insufficient numbers of new homes being built, many
cities are experiencing high levels of homelessness and a housing shortage"
https://researchrepository.ucd.ie/bitstream/10197/10036/2/Delivering_Social_Housing_An_Overview_of_the_Housing_Crisis_in_Dublin_Final.pdf

Timing belt

Marius34 wrote: »

Can't help with that..

some random articles/reports telling Dublin housing shortage, you can find many more:
"Due to an acute shortage of housing stock"
https://www.businesspost.ie/property-insight/five-key-takeaways-from-the-task-force-on-dublin-housing-supply-f31fd88b

"With
growing populations, high rental prices, and insufficient numbers of new homes being built, many
cities are experiencing high levels of homelessness and a housing shortage"
https://researchrepository.ucd.ie/bitstream/10197/10036/2/Delivering_Social_Housing_An_Overview_of_the_Housing_Crisis_in_Dublin_Final.pdf

A lot of Companies didn't move all there operations to Ireland as part of Brexit because of the shortage of accommodation for workers and the cost of housing staff that would have moved with the operations.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

A lot of Companies didn't move all there operations to Ireland as part of Brexit because of the shortage of accommodation for workers and the cost of housing staff that would have moved with the operations.

The figures are very clearly stating that either we have:

a) a shortage of accommodation and a scandalously high vacancy rate.

b) an acceptable vacancy rate and no shortage of accommodation.

What they are emphatically not saying is that we have a shortage of accommodation and aan acceptable vacancy rate.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

The figures are very clearly stating that either we have:

a) a shortage of accommodation and a scandalously high vacancy rate.

b) an acceptable vacancy rate and no shortage of accommodation.

What they are emphatically not saying is that we have a shortage of accommodation and aan acceptable vacancy rate.

I think the point that you are missing is that there is a shortage of affordable accommodation full stop.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

The figures are very clearly stating that either we have:

a) a shortage of accommodation and a scandalously high vacancy rate.

b) an acceptable vacancy rate and no shortage of accommodation.

What they are emphatically not saying is that we have a shortage of accommodation and aan acceptable vacancy rate.

I have clearly showed that there are multiple reports telling that there are housing shortage in Dublin.
But as you say:
You cannot make the horse drink!

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

I think the point that you are missing is that there is a shortage of affordable accommodation full stop.

I have always accepted that point and will reiterate it here again for the avoidance of doubt. In my opinion:

a) There is absolutely, undoubtedly and without reservation a crisis level current shortage of affordable accommodation and there has been for a number of years.

b) Given the circumstances, there is undoubtedly an unacceptably high number of vacancies of which is causing the current shortage of accommodation and pushing prices higher compounding the lack of affordable accommodation.

c) I do not believe we have crisis level shortage in the terms of the total figure of the existing national housing stock - I just think the existing housing stock is being very inefficiently used. The number of vacancies is the most glaring evidence of this.

Solve the vacancy problem and you will go a long way to solving the shortage of affordable accommodation problem.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I have clearly showed that there are multiple reports telling that there are housing shortage in Dublin.
But as you say:
You cannot make the horse drink!

See above.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

See above.

schmittel wrote: »

We can add it to the long list of maybes.

The numbers don’t lie though.

There is no shortage of housing stock, in Dublin or anywhere else.

I showed a report telling opposite to YOUR opinion.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I showed a report telling opposite.

You showed a report saying there is a current shortage of available housing supply, which I agree with.

I do not agree that, based on the vacancy figures, there is a shortage of total housing stock.

Again, just to be clear:

When I say available housing supply, I am referring to properties currently on the market for sale or to let.

When I say total housing stock, I am referring to the total number of existing habitable properties.

We have been through this distinction before.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

You showed a report saying there is a current shortage of available housing supply, which I agree with.

I do not agree that, based on the vacancy figures, there is a shortage of total housing stock.

Again, just to be clear:

When I say available housing supply, I am referring to properties currently on the market for sale or to let.

When I say total housing stock, I am referring to the total number of existing habitable properties.

We have been through this distinction before.

And in one of my link it says:
"acute shortage of housing stock"
Where is your source around sufficient housing stocks?

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

And in one of my link it says:
"acute shortage of housing stock"

That link was paywalled so I could only read the first two paras indicating it was Local Authorities, eg Fingal Co Co who have already been shown to be a bit unreliable. The main point of the article is the 5 key takeaways which I cannot read - what are they?

I read the other article, which does not add to the debate or prove your point. Maybe quote the bit that does if you think I missed it?

Marius34 wrote: »

Where is your source around sufficient housing stocks?

CSO and GeoDirectory, AIRO, Dept of Housing. I seem to recall we've been through this before too?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

CSO and GeoDirectory, AIRO, Dept of Housing. I seem to recall we've been through this before too?

None of them said that there are sufficient existing habitable properties in Dublin. It was only you stating this.