Beef price tracker 2

Bass Reeves

morphy87 wrote: »

So in your opinion what do you think the base price will be the first week of September? Cattle seem to be scarce all right

I be afraid they would pull the stunt they pulled about 6-7 years ago in much the same situation, they promised bigger suppliers 4.2/kg and quoted the rest of us 4/kg and pulled it by 5c/kg for 2-3weeks in a row. They killed away the 4.2/kg cattle and backed up the rest of us

God only know what price it will be.

Hard Knocks

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I be afraid they would pull the stunt they pulled about 6-7 years ago in much the same situation, they promised bigger suppliers 4.2/kg and quoted the rest of us 4/kg and pulled it by 5c/kg for 2-3weeks in a row. They killed away the 4.2/kg cattle and backed up the rest of us

God only know what price it will be.

There’s allot of northern buyers around the marts for forward stores, cattle are making allot more up there
A stunt would be stupid and costly

morphy87

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I be afraid they would pull the stunt they pulled about 6-7 years ago in much the same situation, they promised bigger suppliers 4.2/kg and quoted the rest of us 4/kg and pulled it by 5c/kg for 2-3weeks in a row. They killed away the 4.2/kg cattle and backed up the rest of us

God only know what price it will be.

What would you call a large supplier at that time of the year number wise?

charolais0153

Hard Knocks wrote: »

A stunt would be stupid and costly

For whom

Cavanjack

With restaurants/hotels closed and weddings postponed its hard to believe the price is where it is. They didn’t want cattle for the the last two years. Hopefully as Europe and the Uk opens up it’ll create more demand.
As for the price in September it won’t take much to knock it. If there is a drought the cows will be dumped again and the price will fall fairly fast.

Hard Knocks

charolais0153 wrote: »

For whom

For them

YFlyer

Water John wrote: »

Does Ramadan have an influence on beef demand? It has begun.

No. Food consumption is just as much.

charolais0153

Hard Knocks wrote: »

For them

I do t see how it would ,they would still get cattle the next year nothing would change

Hard Knocks

charolais0153 wrote: »

I do t see how it would ,they would still get cattle the next year nothing would change

Prices are getting better at the moment cos lots of forward & finished stock went north
Less finished out of the sheds which had reduced the supply
If they drop the price, cattle will go to the ring where they’ll have to compete with the Northern buyers who are getting maybe €300 more

kk.man

Jjameson wrote: »

The independent plants, the northern buyers not waiting their turn at the mart ring are getting to be a thorn in the cartels side.
Abp running advertising emphasising how they issue the cheque on the day is a story in itself.

Not a word of comment about it in the IFJ after running it despite it being a point of interest.
We know why Larry is in a position to this, and it wouldn’t exactly warm the cockles of your heart like a peat fire!

They are being torn apart in the sales ring and romour has it that cattle are being lived shipped to the UK (not the North) to be killed.

Give Larry a break.

DukeCaboom

kk.man wrote: »

They are being torn apart in the sales ring and romour has it that cattle are being lived shipped to the UK (not the North) to be killed.

Give Larry a break.

Manchester to be exact.

DukeCaboom

€4:75 all in for U grade heifers in the North.

Water John

YFlyer wrote: »

No. Food consumption is just as much.

Ramadan, besides fasting by day, has feasting to break the fast at sunset, iftar. That's where the lamb is going.

downtown3858

DukeCaboom wrote: »

€4:75 all in for U grade heifers in the North.

For southern cattle? Isn’t happening

kk.man

There is huge demand for Hereford fat cattle atm. So much so that a R- grade Hereford same weight as u- continental was making same money in the Marts this week. I suspect these cattle were heading to the UK.

It's a kick in the teeth to continental suckler breeders.

DukeCaboom

Jjameson wrote: »

Bought off the hoof flat or do they have to grade?

Theyd have to grade it.

€3:50 for p/o cows down here too.

Our local factory is killing cattle they haven't killed in years even from people they not killed for in years.

Saw an awful big tub of a bellyish cow in Mautys yesterday 845kg €1820. To be fair she was very fat but some price.

Bass Reeves

kk.man wrote: »

There is huge demand for Hereford fat cattle atm. So much so that a R- grade Hereford same weight as u- continental was making same money in the Marts this week. I suspect these cattle were heading to the UK.

It's a kick in the teeth to continental suckler breeders.

The Suckler game has been in trouble for the last 5 years but lads are unwilling to adapt. A U- bullock the same weight as an R- Hereford would be lacking in fat cover. I presume that these bullocks are sub 700 kgs LW. The HE because of the level.of finish should kl nearly as heavy. Add in the HE bonus and he was probably underpriced compared to the Continental bullock

kk.man

Back in January/February I predicted that lamb price would rise but also sustain for a long period. It came with a a health warning but I was proved right.

Now beef price prediction. Beef price will also rise and sustain till the late autumn where then it will drop. I base this on the following:
1. UK price well in excess of 5e and Irish nomad cattle sought after.
2. The reopening of the catering trade throughout Europe.
3. The on going high exports from South America and oceanica into Asia.
4. Irish cattle numbers less this year than last.
5. Finally I saw a few weeks back I saw a factory docket from a double trailer of a mixed bag of cattle given 4e flat on it's contents. This same large finisher was given 4.25 on a single load of Angus that week.

I am not naming ppl or plants but that's my theory.

morphy87

kk.man wrote: »

Back in January/February I predicted that lamb price would rise but also sustain for a long period. It came with a a health warning but I was proved right.

Now beef price prediction. Beef price will also rise and sustain till the late autumn where then it will drop. I base this on the following:
1. UK price well in excess of 5e and Irish nomad cattle sought after.
2. The reopening of the catering trade throughout Europe.
3. The on going high exports from South America and oceanica into Asia.
4. Irish cattle numbers less this year than last.
5. Finally I saw a few weeks back I saw a factory docket from a double trailer of a mixed bag of cattle given 4e flat on it's contents. This same large finisher was given 4.25 on a single load of Angus that week.

I am not naming ppl or plants but that's my theory.

If you were to predict a price for late August early September what would you predict the base price to be?

Reggie.

kk.man wrote: »

Back in January/February I predicted that lamb price would rise but also sustain for a long period. It came with a a health warning but I was proved right.

Now beef price prediction. Beef price will also rise and sustain till the late autumn where then it will drop. I base this on the following:
1. UK price well in excess of 5e and Irish nomad cattle sought after.
2. The reopening of the catering trade throughout Europe.
3. The on going high exports from South America and oceanica into Asia.
4. Irish cattle numbers less this year than last.
5. Finally I saw a few weeks back I saw a factory docket from a double trailer of a mixed bag of cattle given 4e flat on it's contents. This same large finisher was given 4.25 on a single load of Angus that week.

I am not naming ppl or plants but that's my theory.

Dont forget that barbecues are up 60% aswell

kk.man

morphy87 wrote: »

If you were to predict a price for late August early September what would you predict the base price to be?

Big finisher was told it will hold till the glut comes out or the weather breaks. I'd expect good weather in the aforementioned time span.

bogman_bass

In any normal year May prices are the highest. She’s cattle dry up and grass cattle aren’t fit. Are we seeing that peak a couple of weeks earlier or will it continue up to the June bank holiday?

epfff

Jjameson wrote: »

4 flat for mix of over and under 30 month mostly friesian, few overage Hereford’s on load.
Good or bad?

4 on grid 420 lose 18 for o= is 402.
HE bonus will more than balance the overage.
I wouldn't be that happy unless they are poor grading fr

Bass Reeves

epfff wrote: »

4 on grid 420 lose 18 for o= is 402.
HE bonus will more than balance the overage.
I wouldn't be that happy unless they are poor grading fr

It would depend on the amount of overage on the load. An 30-36 month HE grading O+ is 4-O.12+.08 or 3.96/kg at4/kg base. O- bullock is 3.88 underage and 3.76 over 30 months, An O=animal is 3.94/kg under 30 months and 3.9/kg over 30 months.

Even if all the HE that are over age the all graded Rand every FR graded O= it wouldn't beat the 4/kg flat price. You want 4..05 of a base and good grading to beat that.

Just saw there may be underage HE on the load are there many

Bass Reeves

Jjameson wrote: »

Her are big plain overage as far as I know.
Fr are Holstein but underage

So FR will probably grade O-/=even at 60%O=/40%O-is 3.98/kg. if the HE are plain will a few slip into O= you could be looking at an average of 3.93/3.94average.
TBH you should have a fair idea of the grades yourself. I have not killed cattle since early February grading had slipped back since last summer from what I could see.

Duke92

Any quotes for next week

epfff

Duke92 wrote: »

Any quotes for next week

410blk
415 heifers
Hearing another 5 cents but don't know where to get it

Jb1989

epfff wrote: »

410blk
415 heifers
Hearing another 5 cents but don't know where to get it

I'll keep harping on about donegal with the extra 10 c between the weights. Haven't heard quotes lately, but they always in the running around this area.

locha

For the first time in years I got a load off at a flat price. Underage steers. Os no Rs. 4.30 flat. Factory would never have entertained a flat price previously and I have tried.

Bass Reeves

With the way the spring is there will not be a lot of cattle coming off grass for 8-10weeks

downtown3858

locha wrote: »

For the first time in years I got a load off at a flat price. Underage steers. Os no Rs. 4.30 flat. Factory would never have entertained a flat price previously and I have tried.

What factory is that

Hershall

Bass Reeves wrote: »

With the way the spring is there will not be a lot of cattle coming off grass for 8-10weeks

Have continental bks here they will need about 7 weeks of meal feeding in order to go early july and hope the price holds.

Bass Reeves

Jjameson wrote: »

Well done, no beating that on a lucky machine grader.

What did you do with yours Jj

tanko

What are R grade cows making?

DukeCaboom

tanko wrote: »

What are R grade cows making?

370

Base price

AIBP are to buy out Slaney, ICM and Linden foods - I wonder what the competition authority have to say about that :rolleyes:
https://www.farmersjournal.ie/abp-to-take-over-remainder-of-slaney-icm-and-linden-620346

wrangler

Base price wrote: »

AIBP are to buy out Slaney, ICM and Linden foods - I wonder what the competition authority have to say about that :rolleyes:
https://www.farmersjournal.ie/abp-to-take-over-remainder-of-slaney-icm-and-linden-620346

I think they own 40% already so the fighting is over

Danzy

Base price wrote: »

AIBP are to buy out Slaney, ICM and Linden foods - I wonder what the competition authority have to say about that :rolleyes:
https://www.farmersjournal.ie/abp-to-take-over-remainder-of-slaney-icm-and-linden-620346

Whatever Massa wants them to say.

weatherbyfoxer

anyone here any quotes for next week?

DBK1

weatherbyfoxer wrote: »

anyone here any quotes for next week?

Heifers in the midlands still at €4.15 for next Tuesday morning anyway.

T0001

€4.10 for bullocks this week in the local factory. Half tempted to send a few. Have 5 600-640kgs, weighed during the week. Plenty of room in them if I wanted to feed on but it comes at the risk of the price in the summer dropping. With QA they'd be hitting €4.30 with 2 probably O+. Any thoughts? Main thing I'd be thinking is fat score but they seem fairly okay.

I remember back in 2019 I killed half the stock in June and the other half in October and found that I was done ave €40/head compared to if I had sent them in June owing to the price drop.

cute geoge

If I had plenty of grass I would not panic yet ,your weights are pretty poor ,prices wont drop big that fast hopefully .I would be inclined to give them a dust of meal at them weights you have ,what breed have you ?unless aa I would be holding tough anyway

Cavanjack

T0001 wrote: »

€4.10 for bullocks this week in the local factory. Half tempted to send a few. Have 5 600-640kgs, weighed during the week. Plenty of room in them if I wanted to feed on but it comes at the risk of the price in the summer dropping. With QA they'd be hitting €4.30 with 2 probably O+. Any thoughts? Main thing I'd be thinking is fat score but they seem fairly okay.

I remember back in 2019 I killed half the stock in June and the other half in October and found that I was done ave €40/head compared to if I had sent them in June owing to the price drop.

Are they fat?

Bass Reeves

T0001 wrote: »

€4.10 for bullocks this week in the local factory. Half tempted to send a few. Have 5 600-640kgs, weighed during the week. Plenty of room in them if I wanted to feed on but it comes at the risk of the price in the summer dropping. With QA they'd be hitting €4.30 with 2 probably O+. Any thoughts? Main thing I'd be thinking is fat score but they seem fairly okay.

I remember back in 2019 I killed half the stock in June and the other half in October and found that I was done ave €40/head compared to if I had sent them in June owing to the price drop.

What breed are they

DukeCaboom

Killed my first load this week. Weights were fine but killing off grass in May they never kill more than they look like later in the year.

jntsnk

DukeCaboom wrote: »

Killed my first load this week. Weights were fine but killing off grass in May they never kill more than they look like later in the year.

Went to mart last week with 20. Reckoned they’d do better than going to factory as they didn’t seemed fit with only May here yet, grass only feed

weatherbyfoxer

load of fr bullocks booked for next week 4.10 base with 3.85 cut off..think its as good as going?

MIKEKC

Jjameson wrote: »

There’s flat rates for o grade type underage of I what can only assume 4.10(based on what I know was going in relation base price a few weeks ago) going with independent places. Takes the trapdoors out of it.. p grades 4+ 5 fat score namely.

What would be the percentage kill out for 675kg fresian bullocks. Just read article that said 55%. Thought that would be a bit high

MIKEKC

Jjameson wrote: »

From 46% for extreme types to 52% for really good proper square lads. Really good Frisian bulls could do 55% but unlikely for bullocks if really friesians.

I work on 50% for middle of road type well finished.

That's what I go by maybe they meant bulls but article didn't say that

Bass Reeves

MIKEKC wrote: »

That's what I go by maybe they meant bulls but article didn't say that

I have seldom seen Friesian bulls kill more than 51/52%. They keep growing so it virtually impossible to get them into a high fat score. Maybe 10+ year ago when you could carry them to 30 months but sub 24 nearly impossible. As well with present ration prices as fast as they come into 2+/3- you should be offloading