Beef price tracker 2

DBK1 · 21-05-2023 11:13AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120622234#Comment_120622234

I don’t think so.

We’re about a third of the way through the silage contracting season now, based on our average annual bale count, and more than three quarters of people we’ve baled for went back to almost their normal rate of fertiliser rather than the reduced rate of last year and bale count is up on all farms as a result.

Silage was very scarce around here in the spring with lads buying from 50 plus km’s away and having to pay big transport charges so costing €50-€60 per bale in their yards and some of it being poor quality. No matter what the price of fertiliser it was going to be cheaper than that.

10-12 bales per acre is nearly the norm this year whereas this time last year it was 6-8 bales. The heaviest we’ve seen was a 10 acre field a farmer bales himself with an F5500 McHale and we wrap for him. He had 200 bales on the 10 acres. He was one of the men that had to buy feed last spring and was adamant that wouldn’t happen him again.

I know it varies around the country. I’m in regular contact with a small contractor in Roscommon and he had the complete opposite story in the spring and said there was no shortage of feed around him with everyone having surplus. But in the midlands the fertiliser use would have seen a big increase on last years numbers.

Siamsa Sessions · 21-05-2023 11:41AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623182#Comment_120623182

A variation on contract-rearing dairy heifers. Interesting times

893bet · 21-05-2023 11:52AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623182#Comment_120623182

The factories as it stands can’t get enough feedlots to finish enough cattle to depress price. And a feedlot only holds cattle for a few short months.

Hard to see them finding enough calf rearers and store rearers (that would need to bring the cattle to 16-18 month) to get a production wheel rolling along the supply chain like that.

agriman27 · 21-05-2023 12:04PM

I think the beef industry is going to see big changes in the next few years. There’s a generation of older farmers who are almost done farming and there isn’t the same commitment to it from the younger generation coming on…

Also the fact that productive farmers getting squeezed by lessening spf payment is going to lead to scaling back also, the cash flow just isn’t the same as it was. We as farmers are always frustrated with the beef factories but in reality it’s a subsided industry for a reason…

wrangler · 21-05-2023 12:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623191#Comment_120623191

+1

Yea, you can't just drop fertiliser input for one year and then claim there's no difference in crops,

Some organic farmers think the same until the second or third year organic when low fertility starts to bite.

I know one organic farmer that trades cattle slurry from a local farmer and pays for equivalent fertiliser for the local farmer.... greenwashing

White Clover · 21-05-2023 12:11PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623191#Comment_120623191

Sounds like the farmers you are baling for are over stocked and falling for the ifj/factory propaganda.

mr.stonewall · 21-05-2023 12:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623321#Comment_120623321

If you can control 10-20% of stock, you are a lynch pin. Just look at the effects of the 22%of the kill coming from feedlots. The price of beef in the UK and Europe has powered on, where are we, going backwards

The feedlots effect more than the small scale finisher, it also effects the store man aswell being able to depress the price.

older by the day · 21-05-2023 12:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623371#Comment_120623371

In middling land you have to open up the spinner from April to mid September. Winter can can vary from 3 months in good land to 7 months in middling land. Nothing worse than running short of silage. Money aside it's the feeling of uncertainty.

White Clover · 21-05-2023 12:39PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623436#Comment_120623436

I'm well aware of all that as I am on heavy land myself but the last 10% of stock that some lads are running shouldn't be there at all. They really suck the good out of the returns.

Jb1989 · 21-05-2023 02:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623007#Comment_120623007

Agreed

Jb1989 · 21-05-2023 02:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623182#Comment_120623182

Agreed too, it's no surprise the factories will take on the roll of calf to beef rearing. They'll pay what ever along the line to each rearer, but they'll have the upper control.

If the milkman doesnt want to rear the calf, and the beef man doesn't want to buy these so called poor calf then Larry will take it on, at least till a Bobby system is introduced, but that's a different debate.

893bet · 21-05-2023 02:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623434#Comment_120623434

Agree but they still don’t have control. If they did the price be on the floor now.

I think the idea of a production wheel from calf to finish controlled by factory is impossible here (nothing is impossible etc etc but it is close to it).

Consider a feedlot killing 5000 a year. 1250 every quater after holding 90 days. Prior to that you would need another massive holding sending 1250 stores aged 15months to 18month to the feed lot every quater. Prior to that it gets more complicated and for a single feedlot calf to store to manage effectively they would need to be running multiple bunches of different age cattle to maintain supply within each quater to ensure continued supply along the production chain. The scale is not imaginable in Ireland when every shed of capable size is already in the finishing game.

DBK1 · 21-05-2023 02:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623371#Comment_120623371

No, certainly not.

The drought last summer had a big effect here. I know it did in the south east too whereas along the western side of the country the effect was minimal.

Silage was being fed for 6-8 weeks during the summer here last year. When the rain eventually did come it was too late and grass never recovered. The wet autumn then had cattle in a month earlier than normal. That’s almost 3 months extra feeding. 4-5 months of winter feeding would be the norm here, that turned into 7-8 months last year.

If anything it was nearly the complete opposite to your comment was what happened. The higher stocked lads that put out their fertiliser in March/April and had their silage in the yard by this time last year were fairly ok as they had a bank of second cut and grazing grass built up before the drought hit. It was the lads forever giving out about teagasc that only decided to shake a handful of fertiliser in May for fear they’d have lost a euro or two’s worth of it in a shower in April that got caught as once they cut their silage in June/July there was no growth after that for the rest of the season really.

I haven’t bought the FJ any more than a handful of times in the last 5 years and I don’t have a teagasc advisor either so I’m not one for worrying about what they’d recommend. I go on my own knowledge and experience of my own farm and one thing for sure, like @wrangler alluded to above, you might get away for one year with cutting back on fertiliser, but by the second or third year the reserves in the land will be gone too and that’s where you’ll get into bother.

There’s no FJ or factory man putting a gun to anyone’s head and telling them what way to stock their farm. That’s all on the farmer himself. Whatever way a lad wants to stock his farm then he’ll have to grow the grass to suit. There’s no point thinking you can get away with no investment and then blame everyone else when you’re not making money from it.

Bass Reeves · 21-05-2023 02:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623182#Comment_120623182

In the UK you have a lot bigger farms than in Ireland so hired labour is required. As well you have a lot less grass in the diet and more grain. Tfe physical cost of housing would be lower, but you have longer winters as grass will not be growing for 10-20 and maybe more days after we get growth.

Ya QA for life seems to be where we are going. Whether that is a good or bad thing it's hard to know. It will definitely cause a redefinition of the way feedlots work in Ireland.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623191#Comment_120623191

If you are baling 10+ bales this early silage area was not grazed off. Quality is compromised it either than or there is a lot of water being baled.

At over 15 bales to the acre it's a mixture of poor quality feed and a lot of water being baled. Last time I got 12 bales to the acre it was water I was baling and it was the start of the first week in June.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623321#Comment_120623321

Feedlots are depending on buying cheaper than they can be produced them to make a profit.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623346#Comment_120623346

The so calked productive farmers were crippling the rest of us. Producing beef for Larry below the cost of production.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623348#Comment_120623348

Because last year was so dry it hid the fertilizer issue especially on heavier land. As well during a dry summer residual N that is deep in the ground comes back to the surface.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623371#Comment_120623371

That and they like baling water

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623434#Comment_120623434

There is a cost benefit figure, it's easy to control 15-20% at certain times of year. However it's dependent on someone else producing a store. If you have to carry from calves it's too expensive.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623448#Comment_120623448

I would agree extra stock add cost that many lads do not realize between maybe having to buy silage, tent land or spread extra fertilizer, it amazing the way costs increase when you go above a certain stocking level.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623749#Comment_120623749

Feedlots are used to target certain times of year. The December to early February shortage as many beef farmers are not inclined to house before mid to late October at the earliest and again from April to early summer when cattle come off grass in numbers. If the feed at other times it's generally at there own risk even if they probably get a favourable price.

So generally it two lots of 2.5k in your senario. Now add housing for that many calves, then facilities to overwinter them.the first winter. Finally you have to figure how you manage the 2.5k for April to early summer finish.

Along with that feedlots buy a lot of short term stock( requiring sub 50 days) to finish to reduce cost and increase margin

DBK1 · 21-05-2023 05:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120623867#Comment_120623867

If you feed it it’ll grow.

One of my dairy farming customers had 9 bales per acre during the week after spreading no nitrogen, only what it got from slurry, and he uses 0-7-30. He’s focusing hard on using clover the past 4-5 years and reducing nitrogen by around 70%. He zero grazed that field already in March this year.

We’re in peak grass growing season, any field closed up since March and not yielding 9 ton plus of fresh yield per acre now is either poor ground or poorly fed ground. If you don’t have the grass growing now you won’t have it for the rest of the year either.

If you’re waiting until June to cut silage then unless it was grazed up to the end of April your quality is poor whether you have 3 or 23 bales per acre.

cute geoge · 21-05-2023 05:42PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120621279#Comment_120621279

The sunrise w@nkers are back another 10 cent for next week who ever taught this would happen!!

ruwithme · 21-05-2023 10:17PM

Dropped a single heifer to liffey meats in bjd.not keeping track of prices as haven't hung anything since before Christmas. Its a long time since i seen as many cattle trailers dropping off stock. Assuming a pull??

Jb1989 · 21-05-2023 10:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120625418#Comment_120625418

Pulled 5 cents a fortnight ago and another 5 was due the week gone by. Went from 5.25 to 5.15 base. Must be another pull due maybe

Castlekeeper · 22-05-2023 05:16PM

A few comments here about fertility being ran out of ground after 2 or 3 years on farms that reduce inputs or go organic. It's just at that point where the land is coming out of its withdrawal symptoms from acidic artificial fertiliser and the natural biological N and nutrient cycling mechanisms, which were damaged and inhibited are kicking in again.

The cost of those marginal watery bales is actually quite high.

Siamsa Sessions · 22-05-2023 05:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120628083#Comment_120628083

I was listening to Tom Stack (who's from your part of the country is he?) on a recent Organic Matters podcast.

I'm not sure I could ever make the various potions he was on about but it was interesting all the same. He reckons he's getting around 20l/cow at the moment (no meal) and the aim is for cows to live til they're 15.

somewhat disappointed · 23-05-2023 01:18PM

Someone wants €25 a bale for Silage for mowing, baling , wrapping and drawing in for bales of silage does this seem reasonable?

roosterman71 · 23-05-2023 02:01PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120631148#Comment_120631148

Seems expensive to me. Are you supplying plastic?

It's going to be 8/9 per bale to bale and wrap. Plastic extra. Then depending on the draw it could be 5 per bale if it's a good distance. Mowing is around 25/acre and ya probably need raking at 10/acre too. Cost per bale of those will be based on the number of bales/acre