Brexit: Threat to the Integrity of the Single Market

roosh

Firstly, I want to state that this isn't a very well thought out idea, primarily because I don't have a firm enough understanding of the area in question to fully reason through it. This thread will hopefully be a vehicle to help me to develop a better understanding.


It seems to me that the only real bargaining chip that the UK have in Brexit negotiations, is the threat that the border on this island poses to the integrity of the single market. It is clearly an issue that the EU takes seriously given that the Northern Irish protocol was the major stumbling block all throughout the process and is proving to be yet again. Their threat to undermine the NI protocol appears to be an attempt to play that bargaining chip.

If no-deal is reached by the end of the transition period and the UK follows through on its threat to undermine the NI protocol, then I'm inclined to think that there would be serious political pressure on the Irish government to do something to secure the land border between Ireland and the UK. This could result in some form of customs checks. It would be pretty disastrous if the ROI were the ones to enforce the border created during partition.

I'm wondering if there is any way in which to neutralise this threat from the UK.


This is the ill-thought out idea, the discussion of which will hopefully bring me to a better understanding:

Would it be possible for Ireland to become a free port of the EU, and if so what would the consequences of this be?


My poor understanding of what it means to be a free port leads me to envisage a scenario where Irish consumers would benefit from tax free (or lower tax goods). Would this mean that there would be a need for customs checks for goods entering and leaving the island, and would this be disastrous for Irish exports? Would there be any benefit to Irish businesses?

In terms of neutralising the threat to the single market, my thinking would be that it might possibly flip the situation, with cheaper goods from Ireland being a threat to the UK market. Again, this is based on a complete lack of understanding, so hopefully if someone can point out where I am wrong, I will develop a better understanding.

VinLieger

I think your missing the problem about how this is not just about cheaper goods its about how those cheaper goods could come to be so cheap and thats by a lowering of standards in the UK.

Once the UK is out of the EU and depending on the FTA rules or lack thereof they will not have to meet the EU minimum food and product standards anymore. This is a key part of why the US are so giddy to get an FTA done with the UK post brexit because they will then be able to flood the UK with their chlorinated chicken and the likes which is cheaper but also far less safe.

Obviously cheaper goods are still a big concern but they are only one of them and the EU definitely do not want substandard goods, especially food, to be able to enter the single market.

View

The solution to the threat to the integrity of the single market is, as it always has been, to impose a full international border as happens on almost all international frontiers.

At this stage, there isn’t a whole lot more that anyone in Dublin or Brussels can do to avoid that, given the current mentality of the political majority in Westminster.

If the people of NI want to avoid the above possibility they can dispatch their politicians to Brussels and/or Dublin to discuss what exactly they could end up with, were they to choose to leave the U.K,

roosh

VinLieger wrote: »

I think your missing the problem about how this is not just about cheaper goods its about how those cheaper goods could come to be so cheap and thats by a lowering of standards in the UK.

Once the UK is out of the EU and depending on the FTA rules or lack thereof they will not have to meet the EU minimum food and product standards anymore. This is a key part of why the US are so giddy to get an FTA done with the UK post brexit because they will then be able to flood the UK with their chlorinated chicken and the likes which is cheaper but also far less safe.

Obviously cheaper goods are still a big concern but they are only one of them and the EU definitely do not want substandard goods, especially food, to be able to enter the single market.

That part I get and that is why I fear there will be serious political pressure on us to enforce customs checks at the border to NI, in the event of a no deal and the UK refusing to implement the NI protocol correctly.

I'm talking about the possibility of flipping the situation. If Ireland were to become an EU free port, it might mean customs checks for all goods leaving the island of Ireland, meaning that Ireland becomes a buffer between the UK and the rest of the single market. Obviously, border checks for Irish goods entering mainland Europe would be a disadvantage to Irish businesses, but would the benefits of free port status balance this out. In a free port, would businesses have access to tax free raw materials? Could this offset the higher cost of export?

If this were the case then Irish goods might be cheaper than UK goods, not because they are lower quality but because they have a lower tax burden with regard to production. Higher quality Irish goods could then flow into the UK but remain competitive on price. While cheaper UK goods would face customs checks leaving the island of Ireland before being able to make it into the rest of the single market.


Again, this is all based on poor understanding of how free ports work, but hopefully by discussing it, I can become better informed.

roosh

View wrote: »

The solution to the threat to the integrity of the single market is, as it always has been, to impose a full international border as happens on almost all international frontiers.

This is what I am worried about, but would designating Ireland as a free port negate this? Instead of a full international border on the island, goods leaving the island would be subjected to border checks entering the rest of the single market.

It would then be a question of whether there would be any advantages of having free port status, and if these would outweigh the negatives of border checks for irish goods entering the single market.

roosh

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Getting back to OP, why does Ireland have to change our economy to accomodate the UK? they are no longer the primary destination for our exports/imports, hell exports alone are down to 6% now !!!! was 10% when Brexit started

The impact on the economy of little old Ireland is only of secondary (if that) concern to the EU. The only reason the EU is so engaged on the issue of the NI protocol is because of the possible threat to the integrity of the single market.

VinLieger

roosh wrote: »

That part I get and that is why I fear there will be serious political pressure on us to enforce customs checks at the border to NI, in the event of a no deal and the UK refusing to implement the NI protocol correctly.

I'm talking about the possibility of flipping the situation. If Ireland were to become an EU free port, it might mean customs checks for all goods leaving the island of Ireland, meaning that Ireland becomes a buffer between the UK and the rest of the single market. Obviously, border checks for Irish goods entering mainland Europe would be a disadvantage to Irish businesses, but would the benefits of free port status balance this out. In a free port, would businesses have access to tax free raw materials? Could this offset the higher cost of export?

If this were the case then Irish goods might be cheaper than UK goods, not because they are lower quality but because they have a lower tax burden with regard to production. Higher quality Irish goods could then flow into the UK but remain competitive on price. While cheaper UK goods would face customs checks leaving the island of Ireland before being able to make it into the rest of the single market.


Again, this is all based on poor understanding of how free ports work, but hopefully by discussing it, I can become better informed.

But what would be the long term benefit of keeping UK trade at current levels and in such a situation probably even expanding it again in the situation your talking about when we have been actively and successfully trying to move away from such a heavy reliance on exporting to the UK?


Especially so considering their behavior over the last 4 years epitomising the idea of perfidious albion meaning they absolutely under no circumstances can be trusted to keep their word.

roosh

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

The EU is so involved because we are the EU, and Good Friday Agreement and overall peace in Europe is the primary reason for existence of EU, trade etc is secondary to that.

Don't kid yourself. If the single market weren't threatened by the land border with the UK on this island, there would be a lot less support for Ireland on this matter.

Peace in Europe might have been a primary objective for founding the EU, but now that Europe is at peace, trade is absolutely the number one concern.

roosh

VinLieger wrote: »

But what would be the long term benefit of keeping UK trade at current levels and in such a situation probably even expanding it again in the situation your talking about when we have been actively and successfully trying to move away from such a heavy reliance on exporting to the UK?


Especially so considering their behavior over the last 4 years epitomising the idea of perfidious albion meaning they absolutely under no circumstances can be trusted to keep their word.

I'm talking about avoiding a hard border on the island. I'm just wondering if free port status would be another way of avoiding this. I'm not sure, because I'm not familiar with how free ports operate in practice. I was hoping to get a better understanding of that.

fly_agaric

roosh wrote: »

This is what I am worried about, but would designating Ireland as a free port negate this? Instead of a full international border on the island, goods leaving the island would be subjected to border checks entering the rest of the single market.

It would then be a question of whether there would be any advantages of having free port status, and if these would outweigh the negatives of border checks for irish goods entering the single market.

I don't understand what a "free port" is but having "goods leaving the island subjected to border checks entering the rest of the single market" will compromise and undermine our membership of the Customs Union and Single Market and the EU.

The rest of the EU are not going to allow VAT & customs duties + checks being done in a bespoke way in Ireland to avoid a "hard" NI border, and also allow no checks on trade between Ireland and the rest of the EU.

We will end up with quite alot of barriers erected between ourselves and the other member states, so a semi-"Ire-exit" of sorts and a drop back into the UKs orbit. IMO we should not compromise membership of the EU for the UK, NI or anyone else
If the UK leaves with no agreement and also breaks the withdrawal agreement, we will eventually have to try & implement a customs border with NI, as bad as that is.

VinLieger

roosh wrote: »

I'm talking about avoiding a hard border on the island. I'm just wondering if free port status would be another way of avoiding this. I'm not sure, because I'm not familiar with how free ports operate in practice. I was hoping to get a better understanding of that.

No cutting ourselves off from the EU in such a way would in no way be beneficial to us in the long term and negate our single market and customs union access which is what we actually care more about vs a hard border. A hard border will be expensive, annoying and very hard to administer but loosing single market and customs union access would be crippling

View

roosh wrote: »

This is what I am worried about, but would designating Ireland as a free port negate this? Instead of a full international border on the island, goods leaving the island would be subjected to border checks entering the rest of the single market.

It would then be a question of whether there would be any advantages of having free port status, and if these would outweigh the negatives of border checks for irish goods entering the single market.

You are proposing we effectively leave the EU/EU SM (since they are one and the same). That’s exactly what Brexiters have been counting on us doing right from the start.

The current furore is basically them putting pressure on us, not “the EU” as a whole, because they reckon - quite correctly - that our politicians regard a no border situation as a “holy cow”. So long as they think they can hold us “hostage”, they have no reason to act reasonably.

roosh

fly_agaric wrote: »

I don't understand what a "free port" is but having "goods leaving the island subjected to border checks entering the rest of the single market" will compromise and undermine our membership of the Customs Union and Single Market and the EU.

The rest of the EU are not going to allow VAT & customs duties + checks being done in a bespoke way in Ireland to avoid a "hard" NI border, and also allow no checks on trade between Ireland and the rest of the EU.

We will end up with quite alot of barriers erected between ourselves and the other member states, so a semi-"Ire-exit" of sorts and a drop back into the UKs orbit. IMO we should not compromise membership of the EU for the UK, NI or anyone else
If the UK leaves with no agreement and also breaks the withdrawal agreement, we will eventually have to try & implement a customs border with NI, as bad as that is.

I don't fully understand the practicalities of how a free port operates, but they have their economic advantages. I'm wondering if the economic advantages would offset the negatives of checks on goods leaving the island. I don't think it would compromise or undermine our membership of the EU at all, as there are already free ports in the EU.

This article gives a very basic run down of what free ports are.

roosh

VinLieger wrote: »

No cutting ourselves off from the EU in such a way would in no way be beneficial to us in the long term and negate our single market and customs union access which is what we actually care more about vs a hard border. A hard border will be expensive, annoying and very hard to administer but loosing single market and customs union access would be crippling

We wouldn't lose any of those things. There are already free ports in the EU.

fly_agaric

roosh wrote: »

This could result in some form of customs checks. It would be pretty disastrous if the ROI were the ones to enforce the border created during partition.

I'm wondering if there is any way in which to neutralise this threat from the UK.

I don't think there is a way to neutralise that threat if the UK is going to fully burn bridges with the EU next year. We'll have to choose here, and choice is obvious to me. As for being blamed over a new customs border the UK/Brexit supporters will do that anyway, they've being blaming Ireland and the EU for everything the entire way through this sorry saga. I don't care what they think to be honest. Also, if people in NI want rid of a hypothetical NI customs border with EU/Ireland they will know what to do, assuming the UK isn't throwing rest of the Good Friday Agreement into the shredder.

roosh

View wrote: »

You are proposing we effectively leave the EU/EU SM (since they are one and the same). That’s exactly what Brexiters have been counting on us doing right from the start.

There are free ports in the EU, so it wouldn't involve leaving the EU/SM.

View wrote: »

The current furore is basically them putting pressure on us, not “the EU” as a whole, because they reckon - quite correctly - that our politicians regard a no border situation as a “holy cow”. So long as they think they can hold us “hostage”, they have no reason to act reasonably.

Do you genuinely think that it is the UK putting pressure on little old Ireland and the EU is standing up for little old Ireland? If the integrity of the single market weren't at stake the EU wouldn't be long pressuring little old Ireland to finding a solution.

The EU also cannot be seen to force one of its smaller members to partition its own country.

VinLieger

roosh wrote: »

I don't fully understand the practicalities of how a free port operates, but they have their economic advantages. I'm wondering if the economic advantages would offset the negatives of checks on goods leaving the island. I don't think it would compromise or undermine our membership of the EU at all, as there are already free ports in the EU.

This article gives a very basic run down of what free ports are.

These free ports operate within EU countries which is why and how they work. The idea of putting the entire country as a free port would be ludicrous and it absolutely would compromise our EU membership.



I think the issue is you seem to be coming at this from a position of the hard border is Irelands problem to deal with. This is the UK's problem and of their making which is why the EU are very much intent on making them deal with it.



Why we would try to bail them out in such a way since as others have pointed out above its exactly the kind of thing brexiteers have been hoping would happen to get them out of the mess they created for themselves by refusing to understand or accept the complexity of the thing they wanted to do?

VinLieger

roosh wrote: »

We wouldn't lose any of those things. There are already free ports in the EU.

Yes free "ports" your proposing putting the entire country into this status so we absolutely would lose these things.

fly_agaric

roosh wrote: »

I don't think it would compromise or undermine our membership of the EU at all, as there are already free ports in the EU.

This article gives a very basic run down of what free ports are.

Will have a read thanks. The direction I'm coming from (giving limited understanding of free ports) would be a special system in this country for EU fundamentals like VAT and customs and imports/exports vs other EU countries would indeed see our membership undermined unless all the other members just let it slide and cannot see that happening.
"Little old Ireland" as you call it is not a big country (compared to the UK) but not small enough to allow something like that IMO.
They won't allow it for post Brexit UK (cake-having-and-eating) and won't allow it for us either.

roosh

VinLieger wrote: »

These free ports operate within EU countries which is why and how they work. The idea of putting the entire country as a free port would be ludicrous and it absolutely would compromise our EU membership.

That's what I was hoping to explore, why exactly it would be ludicrous.

VinLieger wrote: »

I think the issue is you seem to be coming at this from a position of the hard border is Irelands problem to deal with. This is the UK's problem and of their making which is why the EU are very much intent on making them deal with it.

I'm coming at it from the position that the UK might very well choose not to deal with it, because they know how important it is to the EU. This could end up forcing the EU to put pressure on Ireland to deal with, thereby making it Ireland's problem to deal with.

VinLieger wrote: »

Why we would try to bail them out in such a way since as others have pointed out above its exactly the kind of thing brexiteers have been hoping would happen to get them out of the mess they created for themselves by refusing to understand or accept the complexity of the thing they wanted to do?

It wouldn't be bailing them out. The threat to the single market is their only bargaining chip with the EU. It would effectively take that away from them.

I'm looking at this solely from the perspective that the UK follow through with their attempt to undermine the NI protocol. IF they do this then this would undermine the integrity of the single market, which is the EU's biggest concern in all of this. The longer it takes to resolve, the more of an issue it becomes for the EU. The bigger an issue it becomes for the EU, the more pressure they are going to put on Ireland to address the very real problem on our doorstep.

If it were workable, and feasible, granting Ireland free port status could be one such way of addressing the issue - assuming the UK continues to act in bad faith.


It wouldn't get Brexiters out of jail in the least, if anything it would put them right in it, because all their chickens would come home to roost with the added issue of cheap, higher quality goods entering the UK market from Ireland.

listermint

roosh wrote: »

That's what I was hoping to explore, why exactly it would be ludicrous.



I'm coming at it from the position that the UK might very well choose not to deal with it, because they know how important it is to the EU. This could end up forcing the EU to put pressure on Ireland to deal with, thereby making it Ireland's problem to deal with.



It wouldn't be bailing them out. The threat to the single market is their only bargaining chip with the EU. It would effectively take that away from them.

I'm looking at this solely from the perspective that the UK follow through with their attempt to undermine the NI protocol. IF they do this then this would undermine the integrity of the single market, which is the EU's biggest concern in all of this. The longer it takes to resolve, the more of an issue it becomes for the EU. The bigger an issue it becomes for the EU, the more pressure they are going to put on Ireland to address the very real problem on our doorstep.

If it were workable, and feasible, granting Ireland free port status could be one such way of addressing the issue - assuming the UK continues to act in bad faith.


It wouldn't get Brexiters out of jail in the least, if anything it would put them right in it, because all their chickens would come home to roost with the added issue of cheap, higher quality goods entering the UK market from Ireland.

We are the EU, im not sure how much this needs to be hammered home.

Stop with the Ireland and the EU.

Its - The EU.

roosh

VinLieger wrote: »

Yes free "ports" your proposing putting the entire country into this status so we absolutely would lose these things.

We would still be an EU member. Granted, there would be checks on our goods entering mainland Europe but these might be offset by the advantages of free port status. That is effectively what I am wondering, would the benefits outweigh the disadvantages, or at least balance them out.

Again, I'm only wondering this in the eventuality that the UK follows through on their intention of undermining the NI protocol and the EU is forced to take action, by putting pressure on Ireland to enforce a hard border on the island.

roosh

fly_agaric wrote: »

Will have a read thanks. The direction I'm coming from (giving limited understanding of free ports) would be a special system in this country for EU fundamentals like VAT and customs and imports/exports vs other EU countries would indeed see our membership undermined unless all the other members just let it slide and cannot see that happening.

Assuming the UK persist in their undermining of the NI protocol, then the EU will be forced to take action to protect the single market. What are the options? I'm working on the very basic assumption that these are the only two:
1) Pressure Ireland into enforcing a hard border on the island.
2) Grant free port status to the EU.

I'm not sure how free port status would undermine our EU membership undermined. The only issue I see is with regard to access to the single market, as there would be a need for checks on goods leaving the island. There would, however, be certain advantages to being a free port. The question is whether these advantages would offset the additional burdens.

(This is also given my limited understanding of free ports).

VinLieger

roosh wrote: »

That's what I was hoping to explore, why exactly it would be ludicrous.

Firstly the EU wouldnt go for it under any circumstances.

Secondly it absolutely would remove our access to the single market and customs union, in fact a link you shared explains this perfectly

What Happens If Goods Move Out of a Free Port Zone?

Businesses can only benefit from free ports when staying within their designated area. If goods are then moved outside the free port zone to other areas of the country, they must undergo the standard importing process, which includes paying for tariffs. Therefore, free ports are most beneficial for businesses involved in importing, processing goods, and then re-exporting.

Also note the point that free ports are mainly beneficial to importing and not exporting?

roosh wrote: »

I'm coming at it from the position that the UK might very well choose not to deal with it, because they know how important it is to the EU. This could end up forcing the EU to put pressure on Ireland to deal with, thereby making it Ireland's problem to deal with.

This was the claim the brexiteers have been making since June 2016 that the EU were gonna stab us in the back 4 years later it still hasn't happened and its not going to, in fact theres never been a hint of the EU waivering and they have if anything moved to support us more than ever so get over it and move on.

roosh wrote: »

It wouldn't be bailing them out. The threat to the single market is their only bargaining chip with the EU. It would effectively take that away from them.

But its not a viable threat because the UK need a FTA with Europe which they will never get until they deal adequately with the NI issue. Also the US have made it very clear if the GFA is shredded there wont be a deal with them either.

roosh wrote: »

I'm looking at this solely from the perspective that the UK follow through with their attempt to undermine the NI protocol. IF they do this then this would undermine the integrity of the single market, which is the EU's biggest concern in all of this. The longer it takes to resolve, the more of an issue it becomes for the EU. The bigger an issue it becomes for the EU, the more pressure they are going to put on Ireland to address the very real problem on our doorstep.

Again its not our problem its the UK's problem as they need an FTA

roosh wrote: »

If it were workable, and feasible, granting Ireland free port status could be one such way of addressing the issue - assuming the UK continues to act in bad faith.

But its not workable, its not feasible and if the UK continue to act in bad faith thats their problem us becoming a free port would not fix any problems for us.

roosh wrote: »

It wouldn't get Brexiters out of jail in the least, if anything it would put them right in it, because all their chickens would come home to roost with the added issue of cheap, higher quality goods entering the UK market from Ireland.

And what happens if they just stop all Irish imports in such a situation?

Also again why would we reverse our tactic of diversifying our export markets and start once again putting all our eggs into one basket? Theres literally no long term benefit to such an idea.

roosh

listermint wrote: »

We are the EU, im not sure how much this needs to be hammered home.

No, the EU is the collective. We are a member. We do not

Stop with the Ireland and the EU.

Its - The EU.

Ireland is a part of the EU, it is not the entire EU. Ireland cannot make unilateral decisions that all member states in the EU must follow.

Other member states can attempt to put pressure on Ireland to do something against the preferences of Ireland.

Fred Cryton

The fact of the matter here is the British have the power to impose customs on goods between ROI and EU26, by simply making the border porous enough between GB and NI, and hence between NI and ROI (due to our insistence on no land border). That would leave the EU26 with no choice but to cut us off if they are to preserve their integrity.

So much of the commentary stating the British are in a weak position is false. They will use NI as a bargaining chip in these negotiations, with the threat of the ROi being cut off as the stick. Which is what is happening right now.

PeadarCo

roosh wrote: »

We would still be an EU member. Granted, there would be checks on our goods entering mainland Europe but these might be offset by the advantages of free port status. That is effectively what I am wondering, would the benefits outweigh the disadvantages, or at least balance them out.

Again, I'm only wondering this in the eventuality that the UK follows through on their intention of undermining the NI protocol and the EU is forced to take action, by putting pressure on Ireland to enforce a hard border on the island.

If the UK decides to leave the EU and not stay in both the Single Market and Customs Union and make no special arrangements with the EU for Northern Ireland we will have a hard border. This has always been the case. The UK is in charge of North Ireland they decide the laws(let's ignore the whole unionist/nationalist debate). If Ireland wants to stay in the EU in any practical sense border controls will have to up on the Republics side. This has always been the case. The only other option is leave the EU and more or less rejoin the UK(at least in an economic sense)

The thing is it will take time to put up the relevant control points and get them operational. On the other hand it's very easy for European ports like Calais to immediately check UK goods which has the potential to cause massive trouble for the UK and hopefully will make them see sense. That's where the immediate impact of a no deal Brexit will be felt, the Irish border is a longer term issue.

VinLieger

roosh wrote: »

We would still be an EU member. Granted, there would be checks on our goods entering mainland Europe but these might be offset by the advantages of free port status. That is effectively what I am wondering, would the benefits outweigh the disadvantages, or at least balance them out.

No they wouldn't, we would be trading free unfettered access to the largest market on the planet to for temporary uncertain lower tax access to a shrinking, volatile, untrustworthy basket case market that is many multiples smaller.

listermint

roosh wrote: »

Ireland is a part of the EU, it is not the entire EU. Ireland cannot make unilateral decisions that all member states in the EU must follow.

Other member states can attempt to put pressure on Ireland to do something against the preferences of Ireland.

Ireland is the EU, the EU is ireland. The EU is the EU.

Im beginning to see the premise of this thread, its not about understanding. Its about attempting to wedge ireland outside of a full EU member. The same nonsense the irexit clan were at. This is Irexit light. (similar to coors)

Good luck bye.

fly_agaric

roosh wrote: »

Assuming the UK persist in their undermining of the NI protocol, then the EU will be forced to take action to protect the single market. What are the options? I'm working on the very basic assumption that these are the only two:
1) Pressure Ireland into enforcing a hard border on the island.
2) Grant free port status to the EU.

On 1st point terming it "pressure" is a bit reflective of your mentality on this perhaps. I think this stuff is pretty fundamental.
We are either an EU member or not. If we are not fulfilling key conditions of membership (e.g. by having a free for all/open customs border with a 3rd country and no agreements whatsoever covering the operation of it) the other members have to respond to that and protect themselves otherwise the organisation becomes worthless and may as well disband. All the member states with external borders do have customs checks etc.

I think you mean "Ireland" in 2nd point? (Ireland becomes a "free port" inside EU and based on your short article everything leaving Ireland to go to another member state now needs full suite of customs checks, duty and VAT done as if it is an EU import).
The rest of the members must agree, and EU would have to allow us this status, we cannot just declare it.

roosh wrote: »

I'm not sure how free port status would undermine our EU membership undermined. The only issue I see is with regard to access to the single market, as there would be a need for checks on goods leaving the island. There would, however, be certain advantages to being a free port. The question is whether these advantages would offset the additional burdens.

(This is also given my limited understanding of free ports).

That is the point I think. I don't know the trade offs either, but it would restrict Ireland's access to the single market, heavily I imagine. Being in the single market and having such free access is a pillar of our EU membership. It would be a very fundamental change to the economy here (every company exporting back into the EU now has to deal with full customs bureaucracy again, has delays on transit etc). The article you linked mentioned some EU reservations and skepticism of the free port idea - a potential gateway to tax evasion and other sorts of fraud/criminality. That is when it is limited to a port or a city at the very most.
What happens when it becomes a EUR300Bn economy with 5m or so citizens??

I found below details about EU free ports (edit: free "zones") in the EU:

https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/business/customs-procedures/what-is-importation/free-zones_en

https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/sites/taxation/files/resources/documents/customs/procedural_aspects/imports/free_zones/list_freezones.pdf

roosh

VinLieger wrote: »

Firstly the EU wouldnt go for it under any circumstances.

Apologies Michel, I didn't realise it was yourself I was talking to.

VinLieger wrote: »

Secondly it absolutely would remove our access to the single market and customs union, in fact a link you shared explains this perfectly

We would still have access. Imagine a situation where a lorry trying to smuggle UK goods into Europe, alongside Irish goods, is stopped at a checkpoint. The lorry is searched and the UK goods are removed, while the Irish goods are allowed through.

A system for charging VAT and customs duty would have to be worked out to ensure that Irish goods don't experience an unfair advantage over other EU goods. Or, a system which offsets the disadvantage to Irish businesses of having their goods undergo customs checks. In effect, balancing itself out but still granting access to the single market while blocking UK goods.

VinLieger wrote: »

Also note the point that free ports are mainly beneficial to importing and not exporting?

Importing and re-exporting, it says. The tax rules could be engineered to ensure no unfair advantage to Irish goods as well as no disadvantaging.

VinLieger wrote: »

This was the claim the brexiteers have been making since June 2016 that the EU were gonna stab us in the back 4 years later it still hasn't happened and its not going to, in fact theres never been a hint of the EU waivering and they have if anything moved to support us more than ever so get over it and move on.

If the UK follows through and the single market is threatened, you can absolutely bet your bottom dollar the EU is going to take what action they can. Of course they are supporting us more, they need to present a strong front, bu the UK know that if the single market is threatened, the EU will be forced to act.

VinLieger wrote: »

But its not a viable threat because the UK need a FTA with Europe which they will never get until they deal adequately with the NI issue. Also the US have made it very clear if the GFA is shredded there wont be a deal with them either.

and the threat to the integrity of the single market is their biggest bargaining chip. If they follow through with that threat then:
a) The EU will be forced to negotiate to address that threat
b) The EU will be forced to put pressure on Ireland to enforce a hard border
c) The Tories will back down.
d) Ireland gets granted free port status.

I'm talking about the eventuality that the Tories don't back down.

wrt the US. They will put pressure on the UK no doubt, but they are not going to throw away a free trade deal with the UK where they can dictate the terms. They will demonstrate that, technically, they are not in breach of the GFA and that will have to be sufficient for the US.

VinLieger wrote: »

Again its not our problem its the UK's problem as they need an FTA

Unless the UK don't back down and then it becomes our problem because the EU needs to maintain the integrity of the single market.

VinLieger wrote: »

But its not workable, its not feasible and if the UK continue to act in bad faith thats their problem us becoming a free port would not fix any problems for us.

If the UK continue to act in bad faith it becomes our problem bcos the EU are not going to simply say, "oh well, those dastardly brits aren't implementing the NI protocol properly and now it's threatening the integrity of the single market. I guess there's nothing we can do!"

No, they are going to put pressure on us to solve the issue that is on our island.

VinLieger wrote: »

And what happens if they just stop all Irish imports in such a situation?

Then it won't be long before there is a border poll because NI wouldn't survive without exports to the UK. And before you say that you are talking about imports form the republic, think about how you go about policing that.

VinLieger wrote: »

Also again why would we reverse our tactic of diversifying our export markets and start once again putting all our eggs into one basket? Theres literally no long term benefit to such an idea.

I'm not sure why you think that would be the case. We would still have access to the single market. We could still do the same amount of trade with the EU.

The issue is that, while cheap, lower quality goods coming from the UK would be a threat to the single market and hence the need for customs checks. In a free port situation, cheap, higher quality goods would be a threat to the UK market, thereby flipping the situation back on the UK. It would nullify their most powerful bargaining chip and do to them, instead, what they are trying to do to the EU.

roosh

Fred Cryton wrote: »

The fact of the matter here is the British have the power to impose customs on goods between ROI and EU26, by simply making the border porous enough between GB and NI, and hence between NI and ROI (due to our insistence on no land border). That would leave the EU26 with no choice but to cut us off if they are to preserve their integrity.

So much of the commentary stating the British are in a weak position is false. They will use NI as a bargaining chip in these negotiations, with the threat of the ROi being cut off as the stick. Which is what is happening right now.

This is essentially the point I am trying to make. Free port status could potentially help to avoid this situation and turn the UKs most powerful bargaining chip into a weakness.

roosh

PeadarCo wrote: »

If the UK decides to leave the EU and not stay in both the Single Market and Customs Union and make no special arrangements with the EU for Northern Ireland we will have a hard border. This has always been the case. The UK is in charge of North Ireland they decide the laws(let's ignore the whole unionist/nationalist debate). If Ireland wants to stay in the EU in any practical sense border controls will have to up on the Republics side. This has always been the case. The only other option is leave the EU and more or less rejoin the UK(at least in an economic sense)

I'm suggesting there might be another option, to make Ireland a free port.

That is only in the instance that the UK don't back down. It could possibly be touted as an option to demonstrate to them that rather than try to hold out, they would be better off negotiating sooner rather than later.

PeadarCo wrote: »

The thing is it will take time to put up the relevant control points and get them operational. On the other hand it's very easy for European ports like Calais to immediately check UK goods which has the potential to cause massive trouble for the UK and hopefully will make them see sense. That's where the immediate impact of a no deal Brexit will be felt, the Irish border is a longer term issue.

Yes, this is the hope, but the issue is that UK goods could enter the EU market through Ireland - hence the need for the NI protocol.

We have to remember that the Tories are in power for another 4 years and they don't give a tuppence about ordinary people. How long will the EU tolerate a porous border before putting pressure on Ireland to enforce a hard border?


If free port status were to be put forward as a proposal, it might show the UK that they have nowhere to turn. Plus, the free port status could be a temporary solution until such time as the UK complies. It could also be implemented much more quickly than a border on the island.

roosh

listermint wrote: »

Ireland is the EU, the EU is ireland. The EU is the EU.

I see you don't understand the relationship of member states to the overall body.

listermint wrote: »

Im beginning to see the premise of this thread, its not about understanding. Its about attempting to wedge ireland outside of a full EU member. The same nonsense the irexit clan were at. This is Irexit light. (similar to coors)

Nope. You couldn't be further from the truth.

listermint wrote: »

Good luck bye.

Jah Bless!

PeadarCo

roosh wrote: »

I'm suggesting there might be another option, to make Ireland a free port.

That is only in the instance that the UK don't back down. It could possibly be touted as an option to demonstrate to them that rather than try to hold out, they would be better off negotiating sooner rather than later.


Yes, this is the hope, but the issue is that UK goods could enter the EU market through Ireland - hence the need for the NI protocol.

We have to remember that the Tories are in power for another 4 years and they don't give a tuppence about ordinary people. How long will the EU tolerate a porous border before putting pressure on Ireland to enforce a hard border?


If free port status were to be put forward as a proposal, it might show the UK that they have nowhere to turn. Plus, the free port status could be a temporary solution until such time as the UK complies. It could also be implemented much more quickly than a border on the island.

What you are talking about is Ireland leaving the EU. You can't have your cake and eat it. Brexiters thought they could and look at them now.

You are either in the Single market and or customs Union or you are not. Look at the Swiss borders and Norwegian/Swedish border for an example of the customs controls required even for countries that are in one or other.

If the UK and NI leaves the Single market and customs Union without the UK putting controls between Britain and Northern Ireland we will have a hard border. Either that or Ireland for all intense and purposes Ireland leaves the EU. Anything else is wishful thinking.

A hard border can be managed. It's been done before and can be done again if need be. Remember the foot and mouth disease and how quickly the border was manned and how relatively small the potential economic impact when compared to leaving the EU. The only thing is it will take time meanwhile there would be chaos at all the UK ports as they deal with the consequences of countries like Ireland, France, Holland etc immediately inspecting all UK imports and blowing a part the supply chains of any company that's runs a just in time supply chain. And that's before we start talking about the UK services economy and the impact a no deal has on those exports.

View

roosh wrote: »

There are free ports in the EU, so it wouldn't involve leaving the EU/SM.

Yes, there are such ports. There is no case of an entire member state being outside the EU CU & SM, and it is absurd to suggest that we would seek it, much less that the other member would even contemplate giving it to us.

roosh wrote: »

Do you genuinely think that it is the UK putting pressure on little old Ireland and the EU is standing up for little old Ireland?

Yes.

roosh wrote: »

If the integrity of the single market weren't at stake the EU wouldn't be long pressuring little old Ireland to finding a solution.

The other EU member states don’t have to “pressure” Ireland. If there is “no deal”/the WA collapsea we are legally & politically obliged/committed to apply the exact same procedures & tariffs on all our trade with the U.K. as we would on our trade with every other non-EU country. That would require a hard border.

roosh wrote: »

The EU also cannot be seen to force one of its smaller members to partition its own country.

NI isn’t part of our country. If it were there wouldn’t be any need for a NI protocol. Any trying an argument about “partition” with the other EU member states would just get us laughed at given that almost all of them have been partitioned and repartitioned on multiple occasions in the last century.

PeadarCo

View wrote: »

Yes, there are such ports. There is no case of an entire member state being outside the EU CU & SM, and it is absurd to suggest that we would seek it, much less that the other member would even contemplate giving it to us.

It should be remembered that this free port idea for the entire country is basically the whole idea and plan for Brexit it the first place. All the benefits with none of the costs. The whole Brexit process demonstrates that this idea of the whole country being half in or out is absolute nonsense. It didn't work for the UK and won't work for Ireland.

If we have to put up a border will be put up. The economic consequences of not doing so would sink any government never mind with the current difficulties associated with Covid. Northern Ireland is part of the UK at least in the short-term and we have to deal with that reality.

That's not to say I don't have sympathy on anyone living along the border and how they have been treated by certain UK politicians who have at best have not cared about them.

fly_agaric

roosh wrote: »

This is essentially the point I am trying to make. Free port status could potentially help to avoid this situation and turn the UKs most powerful bargaining chip into a weakness.

I think I'm understanding a bit better.
What you are hinging it all on is idea that downgrading our EU membership would be worth these future "free port" benefits (were EU and other member states to agree).

I'm not enough of an expert to know, but it seems like a big and dangerous shot in the dark to upend our whole economy (developed assuming free movement of goods and services between us and the other member states) in the hope of these potential benefits & that the UK will be see us right and ensure there is no "hard" border with NI.

The other thing is that your concept of "turning the UKs most powerful bargaining chip into a weakness" suggests one of the benefits is to increase our exports to the UK. That will make us even more dependent on their good graces and at their mercy, just as Ireland was from the 20s and post WW2 up until it joined the EEC.
So a return to orbiting the UK economy.

It is as large a risk as the punt the UK has taken on its hard Brexit.
Putting up a customs border with NI seems the safer option for Ireland.

theguzman

I think we will see a hard border, the UK agenda seems to want to carry the North of Ireland totally into their hard brexit, we will have no choice but to enact customs and border checks between ROI and NI or otherwise risk getting our own goods and services checked at the ferry into France as we could become a back door for UK WTO goods to enter the EU by default. Smugglers everywhere must be thinking all their Christmasses have come early I'd say.

VinLieger

roosh wrote: »

We would still have access. Imagine a situation where a lorry trying to smuggle UK goods into Europe, alongside Irish goods, is stopped at a checkpoint. The lorry is searched and the UK goods are removed, while the Irish goods are allowed through.

A system for charging VAT and customs duty would have to be worked out to ensure that Irish goods don't experience an unfair advantage over other EU goods. Or, a system which offsets the disadvantage to Irish businesses of having their goods undergo customs checks. In effect, balancing itself out but still granting access to the single market while blocking UK goods.

Im going to not even address the rest of your post because its all straight out of the brexit fantasists strategy book from 3 years ago and has zero basis in any kind of reality.

Im highlighting the above to show you literally have no idea what you are talking about. Im going to explain a fundamental fact to you that you dont seem to understand. Access to the customs union means a truck getting on a boat in rosslare can dock in france and then drive all the way across europe to any external EU border and never once need a check until it gets there.

When we are in the single market and customs union outside of suspected criminal activity or random security etc there are no customs checks... Ever.... Do you understand that?

What you have described above is the exact definition of being outside both of them.

fash

roosh wrote: »

If the UK continue to act in bad faith it becomes our problem bcos the EU are not going to simply say, "oh well, those dastardly brits aren't implementing the NI protocol properly and now it's threatening the integrity of the single market. I guess there's nothing we can do!"

No, they are going to put pressure on us to solve the issue that is on our island.

Why would the EU do that when they have a treaty with the UK?
Are you suggesting that the EU would allow a treaty partner to deliberately breach a treaty with it, bully an EU member state potentially causing the EU to break up/lose that member and certainly lose significant investments etc - and blame said member state and not the third party breaching the treaty?
You must have a lower opinion of the EU than the brexiters.

VinLieger

roosh wrote: »

wrt the US. They will put pressure on the UK no doubt, but they are not going to throw away a free trade deal with the UK where they can dictate the terms. They will demonstrate that, technically, they are not in breach of the GFA and that will have to be sufficient for the US.

Ohh look what happened over night

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-us-uk-trade-deal-nancy-pelosi-good-friday-agreement-b421226.html

This must be easily the third if not 4th time Pelosi who is going nowhere anytime soon as house leader has made such a statement. What you are saying shes lying?

fly_agaric

VinLieger wrote: »

Ohh look what happened over night

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-us-uk-trade-deal-nancy-pelosi-good-friday-agreement-b421226.html

This must be easily the third if not 4th time Pelosi who is going nowhere anytime soon as house leader has made such a statement. What you are saying shes lying?

If success of your policy (not only "hard" Brexit, but burn down remaining bridges with the EU) may depend on the re-election of Trump and an increase in power for the gang that enables him (US Republican party controlling both houses of US Congress) it should make you reconsider if it is wise I think.

He does seem to like Boris Johnson (unlike Theresa May) but he can also change like the weather when those he likes and respects one day do not lick his backside with enough enthusiasm the next day.

listermint

fly_agaric wrote: »

If success of your policy (not only "hard" Brexit, but burn down remaining bridges with the EU) may depend on the re-election of Trump and an increase in power for the gang that enables him (US Republican party controlling both houses of US Congress) it should make you reconsider if it is wise I think.

He does seem to like Boris Johnson (unlike Theresa May) but he can also change like the weather when those he likes and respects one day do not lick his backside with enough enthusiasm the next day.

There's zero hope of the GOP holding both houses, Its such pie in the sky stuff that there's no point discussing it. The presidential race is obviously still on , but my own opinion of that is that its over.

I think safe to say Pelosi statement is sound.

roosh

fly_agaric wrote: »

On 1st point terming it "pressure" is a bit reflective of your mentality on this perhaps. I think this stuff is pretty fundamental.

We are either an EU member or not. If we are not fulfilling key conditions of membership (e.g. by having a free for all/open customs border with a 3rd country and no agreements whatsoever covering the operation of it) the other members have to respond to that and protect themselves otherwise the organisation becomes worthless and may as well disband. All the member states with external borders do have customs checks etc.

No Irish government will ever want to be seen to be the ones who erect or even facilitate a hard border on the island. But, as you quite rightly point out, if we are not fulfilling a key condition of membership, other members will have to respond. That will likely take the form of "encouraging" the Irish government to do something they fundamentally do not want to do. I think "pressure" is a perfectly suitable term in this regard.

As you quite rightly point out, if the UK doesn't back down, a hard border is almost inevitable. I'm inclined to think it could be avoided by granting Ireland free port status, even as a short term measure until the UK really starts to feel the pinch and is forced back to the negotiating table.


Mooting is publicly as a possibility might even force their hand before actually following through with it.

fly_agaric wrote: »

I think you mean "Ireland" in 2nd point? (Ireland becomes a "free port" inside EU and based on your short article everything leaving Ireland to go to another member state now needs full suite of customs checks, duty and VAT done as if it is an EU import).
The rest of the members must agree, and EU would have to allow us this status, we cannot just declare it.

Yes, thank you, I meant Ireland.

Of course, we would have to be granted free port status.

fly_agaric wrote: »

That is the point I think. I don't know the trade offs either, but it would restrict Ireland's access to the single market, heavily I imagine. Being in the single market and having such free access is a pillar of our EU membership. It would be a very fundamental change to the economy here (every company exporting back into the EU now has to deal with full customs bureaucracy again, has delays on transit etc). The article you linked mentioned some EU reservations and skepticism of the free port idea - a potential gateway to tax evasion and other sorts of fraud/criminality. That is when it is limited to a port or a city at the very most.
What happens when it becomes a EUR300Bn economy with 5m or so citizens??

If the UK doesn't back down then we have to find some solution to the border issue.

At present, a hard border is the only solution I've heard mentioned. The UK is banking on this because they know that it will be the EU via the Irish government that would have to implement it. From the perspective of the other member states, this would be the easiest solution, just put up a border like exist elsewhere in Europe. But, it would be seen as forcing a smaller member state to partition their own country. It would be a bit like telling the Germans they need to divide the country between east and west again, for the sake of the single market. It would also take the argument about imperiling peace in NI and turn it back on the EU and Ireland bcos the UK won't be erecting the border, we will.


There are issues with free port status but a special arrangement could be devised for a very special circumstance.

roosh

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

As I pointed out earlier backed by CSO facts and figures our trade with UK is down to 6%.

Leaving the EU which is effectively what the op proposes is even more silly than Brexit itself.

UK could make all noise the noise they want, but at end of day they need us more than we need them one could say.

You're not understanding the point, I don't think.

We would remain a full EU member with access to the single market. We would still take part in EU elections, the EU courts would have jurisdiction, we would still be bound by all the treaties.

What would change is that there would be customs checks on goods leaving the island of Ireland and there would be a need for a special tax system to ensure that Irish companies don't unduly suffer as a result.

It could also be a temporary measure until the UK feel the pinch of not having an FTA with the EU. It could also be publicly mooted as a possibility to make the UK back down before it even comes to that, showing that their threat is easily neutralised.

roosh

PeadarCo wrote: »

What you are talking about is Ireland leaving the EU. You can't have your cake and eat it. Brexiters thought they could and look at them now.

We would remain a full member of the EU, so that is just plain wrong.

PeadarCo wrote: »

You are either in the Single market and or customs Union or you are not. Look at the Swiss borders and Norwegian/Swedish border for an example of the customs controls required even for countries that are in one or other.

The checks would be to ensure that UK goods are not entering via Ireland.

Imagine two trucks going through, on with UK goods, one with Irish goods. The UK truck is stopped and searched and turned away, the Irish good is searched and sent through. We still have access to the single market and are still in the customs union.

The issue is that border checks would be a disadvantage to Irish businesses, so there would need to be arrangements made to ensure that this is balanced out.

PeadarCo wrote: »

If the UK and NI leaves the Single market and customs Union without the UK putting controls between Britain and Northern Ireland we will have a hard border. Either that or Ireland for all intense and purposes Ireland leaves the EU. Anything else is wishful thinking.

That'll be a great look for the EU. Accusing the UK of imperiling peace in NI, with the prospect of a hard border, then coming along and putting up a hard border.

PeadarCo wrote: »

The only thing is it will take time meanwhile there would be chaos at all the UK ports as they deal with the consequences of countries like Ireland, France, Holland etc immediately inspecting all UK imports and blowing a part the supply chains of any company that's runs a just in time supply chain. And that's before we start talking about the UK services economy and the impact a no deal has on those exports.

UK exports can be routed through Belfast and through the ROI. Yep, there would be some disruption, but with some readjustment supply chains could be managed.

Now we've got UK goods entering the single market via Ireland.

IAmTheReign

roosh wrote: »

We would still have access. Imagine a situation where a lorry trying to smuggle UK goods into Europe, alongside Irish goods, is stopped at a checkpoint. The lorry is searched and the UK goods are removed, while the Irish goods are allowed through.

A system for charging VAT and customs duty would have to be worked out to ensure that Irish goods don't experience an unfair advantage over other EU goods. Or, a system which offsets the disadvantage to Irish businesses of having their goods undergo customs checks. In effect, balancing itself out but still granting access to the single market while blocking UK goods.

Importing and re-exporting, it says. The tax rules could be engineered to ensure no unfair advantage to Irish goods as well as no disadvantaging.

You realise what you have described is literally Ireland leaving the SM & CU?

In your hypothetical scenario how do you propose that would work in practice? How can you distinguish between goods that are Irish and those that aren't? You can't just slap a Made in Ireland sticker on something and expect to have it waved through customs. You need paperwork to prove origin, and inspections on arrival to verify that everything is correct. And how do you deal with goods that are partially British and partially Irish? The whole point of the SM is eliminate this bureaucracy.

And any system that means Irish goods would be subjected to different VAT or customs duties means Ireland is no longer part of the customs union.

roosh

View wrote: »

Yes, there are such ports. There is no case of an entire member state being outside the EU CU & SM, and it is absurd to suggest that we would seek it, much less that the other member would even contemplate giving it to us.

This is an unprecedented situation. Why is it absurd?

View wrote: »

Yes.

This is a very naive view. The Irish position is that we absolutely do not want to put up a hard border because it will risk the process made under the GFA and the EU are backing us in this. Yet, in the same breath you say that it is inevitable that we will have to put up a hard border if the UK doesn't back down. This is precisely what the UK is banking on, the idea that when push comes to shove, the Irish redline of a hard border will be crossed for the good of the market.

How will that look? The EU saying a hard border will put the peace process at risk, then coming along and putting up a hard border?

View wrote: »

The other EU member states don’t have to “pressure” Ireland. If there is “no deal”/the WA collapsea we are legally & politically obliged/committed to apply the exact same procedures & tariffs on all our trade with the U.K. as we would on our trade with every other non-EU country. That would require a hard border.

That is the pressure of the EU!! The rules and regulations of the EU are very much part of what the EU is. Other member states can choose how much pressure they put on us to build a border.

A free port might be an alternative solution.

View wrote: »

NI isn’t part of our country. If it were there wouldn’t be any need for a NI protocol. Any trying an argument about “partition” with the other EU member states would just get us laughed at given that almost all of them have been partitioned and repartitioned on multiple occasions in the last century.

The EU are using the argument that a hard border puts the peace process at risk. So they and we will be the ones putting the peace process at risk when we have to put up a hard border. That'll be a very good look indeed!

It would be like telling the Germans they need to re-partition the country for the good of the single market.

roosh

PeadarCo wrote: »

It should be remembered that this free port idea for the entire country is basically the whole idea and plan for Brexit it the first place. All the benefits with none of the costs. The whole Brexit process demonstrates that this idea of the whole country being half in or out is absolute nonsense. It didn't work for the UK and won't work for Ireland./quote]
Nope, because we would still be a fully fledged member, unable to negotiate separate trade deals, subject to the rules and regulations of the EU, everything.

PeadarCo wrote: »

If we have to put up a border will be put up. The economic consequences of not doing so would sink any government never mind with the current difficulties associated with Covid. Northern Ireland is part of the UK at least in the short-term and we have to deal with that reality.

That's not to say I don't have sympathy on anyone living along the border and how they have been treated by certain UK politicians who have at best have not cared about them.

I don't think a hard border is the only answer. In fact, this is exactly what the UK are hoping for bcos it is more likely to bring the EU to the negotiating table.

A strong argument against the UK's actions is that they are putting the peace process in danger by risking a hard border. The EU cannot then come along and risk the peace process by putting up a hard border.

VinLieger

roosh wrote: »

We would remain a full member of the EU, so that is just plain wrong.

The checks would be to ensure that UK goods are not entering via Ireland.

Imagine two trucks going through, on with UK goods, one with Irish goods. The UK truck is stopped and searched and turned away, the Irish good is searched and sent through. We still have access to the single market and are still in the customs union.

Can you read? Honestly im asking as a serious question because its been pointed out to you multiple times now that exactly what you are describing is Ireland leaving and being outside both the single market and the customs union.

roosh wrote: »

The issue is that border checks would be a disadvantage to Irish businesses, so there would need to be arrangements made to ensure that this is balanced out.

There are no arrangements possible to make up for this disadvantage. Your are literally now describing the argument of brexiteers of "we want access to the single market but dont want to be under the same rules"

roosh wrote: »

That'll be a great look for the EU. Accusing the UK of imperiling peace in NI, with the prospect of a hard border, then coming along and putting up a hard border.

Its what the UK are doing. This is a fact unless you come from the brexit camp of arseways reasoning which its becoming increasingly obvious you belong to. They are the ones reneging on previously signed international agreement, not the EU.