Lions Tour

TRC10

THFC198 wrote: »

Hogg - first name on the team sheet for various reasons

Liam Williams would like a word

theVersatile

I will literally eat a leather hat if Redpath tours - he's one (admittedly impressive) cap; but centre places are limited especially if Farrell is thought of as a 12.

I'd consider Harris to be a Chris Farrell level player who gets more exposure due to being in the Scotland set up - solid, reliable, defensively sound, but little x-factor that can break the game in the veign of Tuilagi, Henshaw and others.

Ali Price had a terrible 6N tournament and shouldn't even be in the discussion for nine. Very poor game management - he's everything people claim that Murray is. I'd be very surprised if the three nines weren't Youngs, Murray and Davies (unless there's an obvious candidate I'm missing out on - don't say Cooney).

Hogg and Hamish I can't deny are excellent and deserved tourists if they get selected. Russell is consistently inconsistent, but could squeek in as a third ten. Could easily choose Ford, Biggar, Sexton plus Farrell ahead of him though, assuming Johnny and Biggar's heads are in the right place.

AbusesToilets

TRC10 wrote: »

Liam Williams would like a word

Keenan was better than both this season.

TRC10

theVersatile wrote: »

Ali Price had a terrible 6N tournament and shouldn't even be in the discussion for nine. Very poor game management - he's everything people claim that Murray is. I'd be very surprised if the three nines weren't Youngs, Murray and Davies (unless there's an obvious candidate I'm missing out on - don't say Cooney).

*criticises scrum half for having poor game management

*selects Gareth Davies

TRC10

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Keenan was better than both this season.

Liam Williams on form is by a mile the best full back in the home nations.

However there will be riots on the streets in Scotland if Hogg doesn't start.

theVersatile

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Keenan was better than both this season.

Was he though? He's a reliable head under the kick ball but I think Hogg is far better. Whatever about Williams, I wouldn't be his biggest fan.

Keenan had a good few dodgy moments in attack in the ANC and 6N which got swept quietly under the rugby: dodgy passes and odd running lines. He did well in a lot of instances too, but I think some are talking him up far too much. I'd be shocked if he tours.

That and I'd fear for his ribcage against the Boks. Send up a contestable over his head and have PSDT line him up and he'll wake up two weeks later. He's awfully light.

theVersatile

TRC10 wrote: »

*criticises scrum half for having poor game management

*selects Gareth Davies

Lol touché. I'd forgotten about his little brain fart against us - must have been overshadowed in my brain by Burns kick afterwards.

TRC10

theVersatile wrote: »

Lol touché. I'd forgotten about his little brain fart against us - must have been overshadowed in my brain by Burns kick afterwards.

Could be a bench option late in a game. But he's been known to make some bad decisions even prior to that game.

Kieran Hardy was the most impressive of all the Welsh 9s IMO. Nice balance to his game, kicks well. Thought he was class v England.

AbusesToilets

theVersatile wrote: »

Was he though? He's a reliable head under the kick ball but I think Hogg is far better. Whatever about Williams, I wouldn't be his biggest fan.

Keenan had a good few dodgy moments in attack in the ANC and 6N which got swept quietly under the rugby: dodgy passes and odd running lines. He did well in a lot of instances too, but I think some are talking him up far too much. I'd be shocked if he tours.

That and I'd fear for his ribcage against the Boks. Send up a contestable over his head and have PSDT line him up and he'll wake up two weeks later. He's awfully light.

Same Hogg who got skinned repeatedly this past weekend and during the 6Ns? Keenan was very solid imo, both in terms of positioning and tackling. I think he's very strong in attack. He runs good lines and can offload very effectively.

He may not be one to rip off a break like Williams did vs NZ, but in totality, he's a better package. He's also not apt to give away stupid penalties like Williams is.

TRC10

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Same Hogg who got skinned repeatedly this past weekend and during the 6Ns? Keenan was very solid imo, both in terms of positioning and tackling. I think he's very strong in attack. He runs good lines and can offload very effectively.

He may not be one to rip off a break like Williams did vs NZ, but in totality, he's a better package. He's also not apt to give away stupid penalties like Williams is.

Ah here. Keenan has done really really well, and still has great potential. But he's not in the same league as L.Williams just yet.

He's by far the most complete full back. Unbelievable in the air, great defender, brilliant counter attacker. Not as good a tactical kicker as Hogg but it's certainly not a weakness. One of the Lions' best players in 2017 and his performance v England in 2019 is one of the all time great full back performances. I understand he might not be a particularly likeable guy, but you cant deny his class.

Him and Hogg go as the 2 full backs. Can't see more than 2 being taken in a 36 man squad when A.Watson or Maitland can cover 15.

Paul Smeenus

Keenan better than Hogg and Williams. Right.

Paul Smeenus

Saw this on Planet Rugby Forum - somebody put together stats for likely Lions tourists.

https://contenthubble.com/playground/lions-selection/

Makes for some very interesting reading.

Former Former Former

Paul Smeenus wrote: »

Keenan better than Hogg and Williams. Right.

In fairness, it was "better this season" - I don't think either Hogg or Williams have set the world on fire this seaon.

sydthebeat

sprucemoose wrote: »

who are you thinking?

i expect only hogg, watson and DVDM

i wouldnt be surprised to see russell left at home, but may get the nod if biggar / farrell / sexton gets ruled out through injury.

Price is one of many at the same level behind murray.. so hes up against davies / williams / webb / youngs / JGP and even DC.

price will miss out because he doesnt have the kicking game that his competitors have, and gatland will be kicking the leather off the ball .. and playing 3 full backs as his back three in the test games. Steel could very well be scotlands 9 in the next 6Ns. I wouldnt be surprised to see murray, davies and JGP actually travelling. Youngs star has fallen badly imo.

Gray isnt even in the same room as henderson currently. he can tackle and catch a line out, but thats where his impact ends. hes AWJ lite.
Itoje, AWJ, Henderson and Ryan .. with beirne as a 5.5

sutherland probably would have travelled, but wont now.

Thrashssacre

Paul Smeenus wrote: »

Saw this on Planet Rugby Forum - somebody put together stats for likely Lions tourists.

https://contenthubble.com/playground/lions-selection/

Makes for some very interesting reading.

Makes good reading if your Ronan kelleher.

Louis Friend

It’s gas that the fixtures still haven’t been confirmed but the squad is being announced in a week’s time.

Paul Smeenus

Thrashssacre wrote: »

Makes good reading if your Ronan kelleher.

It really does, especially when you factor in the amount of minutes played.

Henderson cones out of it very, very well, as does Beirne.

THFC198

sprucemoose wrote: »

ringrose was very good up until the scotland game and it looked like he was playing with an injury, i think he gets an awful lot of unjust stick too tbh, hes a phenomenal player when he has any bit of form. all three are much better than harris with any bit of form going

I bring Davies/Henshaw//Harris/Ringrose as my centres, I think it’s a great of players and styles with Slade missing out. I think Slade and Ringrose are very similar players at times and I’ll give it Ringrose purely because of how highly I rate his defensive work.

I think Farrell goes as one of three 10s, my gut says sexton and biggar are the other two but then I think should you really bring the same type of 10 three times and leave Russell at home

This only means I’ve only got 6 back 3 players which includes Johnny May over VDM

theVersatile

I thought Hamish's 14 broken through tackles was fairly impressive, and then I got to DVDM. Thirty two, Jesus Christ.

Some interesting trends across the board though. Welsh starters generally lead the tackle counts - product of high minutes with little time for subs and a lot of time defending. Lots of penalties against English forwards.

Cosmo Kramer

Personally if I was picking a Lions squad I'd have three Scots at the absolute most, and that's only if Sutherland is fit in time. Otherwise it would just be Hogg and Watson. Russell would also go if Sexton was ruled out.

However, the reality is that with Townsend involved they're going to get a few token tourists this time, I can't see there being less than five, Scottish rugby fans are expecting six or seven.

The honest truth though is that if Ali Price represented any of the countries involved other than Scotland he wouldn't even be in the discussion, most likely because he wouldn't have an international cap to his name. There are at least three Welsh scrum halfs who are better than him for starters, as well as Murray, Youngs and probably Cooney.

Similarly Jonny Average in the second row is only considered alongside the likes of Henderson for selection because he's a regular for Scotland, in terms of ability he should be nowhere near the plane.

The squad is already going to be carrying one wing who can't defend in Rees-Zammit, it would be extremely risky to take a second in Van Der Merwe. However, again, I think he may go as a Townsend selection and play some midweek games.

The fact that Harris is even in the discussion here concerns me in terms of where the squad is at with 13s. He may travel as a token pick but there's more chance of a 12 moving across to play 13 than there is of Harris starting a test.

Fagerson in the front row is a step down on any of Furlong, Porter or Sinckler. However, again, because he is a regular international starter he has an advantage over Porter - although Porter's ability to play both sides of the scrum may benefit him.

I think I saw Matt Fagerson's name mentioned a few posts up. Honestly I don't think he'd make a list of the 15 best back row players available to Gatland here.

RugbyLover123

Unless Russell isn’t in Townsend’s Scotland plans long term there is no way he doesn’t tour. Can you imagine the dynamic in that Scottish camp come November if Townsend was bigging him up as one of the best 10s in the world a few months back and then doesn’t bring him on the Lions.

I personally think Russell is vastly over rated but it is quite amusing to see a lot of pros/ex pros pick him at 10 when they are asked.

Seems to be a bit of a media push towards Scotland being well represented when people need to remember they still came 4th..

Personally I’d only bring Hogg & Watson. But I can see those 2, Russell, DVM & Price at least going.

TRC10

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Similarly Jonny Average in the second row is only considered alongside the likes of Henderson for selection because he's a regular for Scotland, in terms of ability he should be nowhere near the plane.

That's just nonsense. Just because he's not a flashy, athletic 2nd row like Itoje or Ryan doesn't mean he's average. If you look at his stats, some of his numbers are ridiculous. And he's a very important player for the current European champions. You need a workhorse in the 2nd row who gets through a mountain of work and thats what Gray does. Exeter are a very well run club with a fantastic coach, they don't go around signing average players.

You may have a case with some of the others lads you named but calling Gray average is utter nonsense.

THFC198

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

The honest truth though is that if Ali Price represented any of the countries involved other than Scotland he wouldn't even be in the discussion, most likely because he wouldn't have an international cap to his name. There are at least three Welsh scrum halfs who are better than him for starters, as well as Murray, Youngs and probably Cooney.

Similarly Jonny Average in the second row is only considered alongside the likes of Henderson for selection because he's a regular for Scotland, in terms of ability he should be nowhere near the plane.

The fact that Harris is even in the discussion here concerns me in terms of where the squad is at with 13s. He may travel as a token pick but there's more chance of a 12 moving across to play 13 than there is of Harris starting 13.

I think you’re vastly underestimating this Scottish, they aren’t world beaters, but neither are Ireland right now and we happily pick 10 Irish tourists with plenty more unlucky souls.

Now I’m not saying Ali Price is the finished article at 9 but it’s a position of relative weakness for the Lions and he’s comfortably deserving of his place in the conversation, Gareth Davies is an incredibly similar player so I’m not sure how you can include one as reasonable and the other as not and Hardy has been in good form but is effectively an unknown in test match situations. There’s a big step down below Murray and it’ll be really interesting to see who’s picked.

Another poster addressed the unfairness with which you treated Jonny Gray so I’ll just echo his post on that. A bit of grit and hard work will be essential on this tour.

Lastly, Harris has become the lynchpin in the Scottish defence that’s been vastly improved and whilst he isn’t as flashy as the rest of that back line he is a very good ball carrier as well. If Tandy is looking for someone to secure his defensive system, Harris is the perfect man.


Jonny Gray and the Fagerson brothers may miss out due to the strength of depth in their positions. But all of the named Scots are in the conversation on merit of what they bring to the table not because theyre scottish

Cosmo Kramer

I fully agree that Gray gets through a lot of work in matches, his tackle stats in particular are impressive. Is that enough for selection though - he's up against some of the world's best second rows here? For me, no, if he goes it won't be because he's one of the best available second rows, it will be for balance in terms of spread across the four countries, unless there is a spate of second row injuries at some point.

Incidentally if Ireland have 10 tourists I think we'll be doing quite well and I don't think there will be many that should count themselves unlucky. Earls is one who I think deserves to go but won't. He's a better all round winger than some that will travel ahead of him and he can cover a few positions in a pinch. Aside from him though I have hope that we'll be fairly represented on the plane.

But, in terms of comparing Ireland and Scotland, your comparing a squad full of grand slam winners with a squad that haven't been in contention going in to the final day of the tournament during any of these players' international careers. They have the same problem when you put them head to head with the English and Welsh players too. Those players have all been there and done it at international level whereas with Scotland you have a squad that came fourth in the 6 nations this year and it was another case of could haves and should haves (or shouldn't haves, in Zander Fagerson's case).

There's a danger of assuming that, just because they're not as bad as they used to be, they have a squad that's the equivalent of the other three countries. However, I think the reality is that they'll probably be fourth or worse in the 6 nations once again next year.

My current expectation is that half a dozen Scots will travel and, other than Hogg, they'll be playing their rugby for the midweek team (or, since there are fewer games now, not playing at all once the serious rugby starts).

sprucemoose

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

However, the reality is that with Townsend involved they're going to get a few token tourists this time, I can't see there being less than five, Scottish rugby fans are expecting six or seven.

I am quite worried that you might be right on this one

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

The squad is already going to be carrying one wing who can't defend in Rees-Zammit, it would be extremely risky to take a second in Van Der Merwe. However, again, I think he may go as a Townsend selection and play some midweek games.

The fact that Harris is even in the discussion here concerns me in terms of where the squad is at with 13s. He may travel as a token pick but there's more chance of a 12 moving across to play 13 than there is of Harris starting a test.

Bit harsh on LRZ, he seems fine to me so far. Correct about Harris though, could easily see Henshaw moving to 13 if Farrell goes as a 12

aloooof

I wonder what the chances are of it being 10. Biggar 12. Farrell 13. Henshaw.

Ciaran-Irl

I think people are discussing the squad based on an assumption of a normal sized squad. Given that, 1. Gatland went with 41 last time around (vs 37 in Australia and 36 in previous years), and 2. The possibility of Covid restrictions making it harder to fly in players, it seems inevitable to me that the close calls between player x and player y won't happen. They'll probably both go.

THFC198

Gatland has said he’s looking to name a smaller squad (36) than previous because of Covid, easier to keep the touring party safe over there if there’s less of them and then can fly someone over if required (although you’re right that this does bring its own risks)

sydthebeat

update on edinburgh game:

Dear Syd

As a ticket purchaser for The Vodafone Lions 1888 Cup, we are writing to you regarding your tickets for the Lions v Japan match at BT Murrayfield in Edinburgh on Saturday 26 June.

Unfortunately given the ongoing public health safety measures around the coronavirus pandemic, it is looking increasingly likely that a full capacity crowd is not going to be permitted and a significant reduction in spectators at this match will be required. We are continuing to work with the Scottish Government, Scottish Rugby and public health authorities to confirm capacity and finalise operational plans for getting spectators into the venue safely. We thank you for your patience and will update you as soon as we have further information.

As a reminder, if you are refunded, we will follow the process as set out in the Ticket Terms and Conditions and refund ticketholders in the order according to the time and date when tickets were purchased within each category. The full face value of the tickets would be refunded, minus the Order Processing Fee of £2.75.

Thank you for your continued understanding and support.

Best wishes,
The British & Irish Lions

TRC10

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

I fully agree that Gray gets through a lot of work in matches, his tackle stats in particular are impressive. Is that enough for selection though - he's up against some of the world's best second rows here? For me, no, if he goes it won't be because he's one of the best available second rows, it will be for balance in terms of spread across the four countries, unless there is a spate of second row injuries at some point.

If Beirne goes as a 6, Gray get's in. If Beirne goes as a lock, Gray misses out.