Northern Ireland- a failure 99 years on?

Natterjack from Kerry

downcow wrote: »

The bit that a lot of romantic bitter republicans just can’t come to terms with is that the situation in ni is:

100% of traditional unionists, to all intent and purpose, remain dedicated to maintaining their position in the UK

100% of traditional nationalist are not dedicated to creating a United ireland (it ranges between 25% and 60% depending on how the questions are asked.

This says it all. And we can dance around all day but it answers the original thread question as to what the majority of people living in ni believe.
And it answers the question about whether a border poll would be successful in our lifetime.

I don’t need to tell you the answers because they are clear to all.

This nonsense also, that it has been left to the Irish nation to decide on unification.
It has been left to the people of NI to decide if they want to unite the island. Only if the NI people decide they want to do the southerners then get to decide whether they wish to reject or accept the ni offer. It is fantasy to say UK has left it in the hands of Ireland to self determine.

Let’s agree those three facts and then move on from there ?

Yes, I would agree with that. It's hardly even something to agree, disagree, or even debate. That is the fact of the matter and had been for some time.

Brexit threw a curve ball. It could have tipped the balance of the middle ground either way. For the two extremes the matter is unchanged. But for the middle swing vote Brexit reinforces support for staying in the UK. If there had been a hardest oxf hard Brexit, really splitting the island, and taking NI further from the EU and Ireland, that might have bolstered support for reunification. And would have been as much a vote for staying in the EU family, practicalities of easy of travel and trade on the island, more than for the principal of unification in itself. So some of the speculative scenario talk of the last 4 years had grounds.
But now that the deal is done, it is clear that unification has moved further away, not closer. And talk of a poll is pie in the sky.

FrancieBrady

A very fair summary of the situation even if it is outdated, I suspect the events since have pushed more into the UI camp.

But the timeline of the results does show a gradual shift toward unity. A LucidTalk survey conducted a few months after the 2016 EU referendum did not show any head of steam for a united Ireland. Thirty-one percent backed unity, with 68 percent against, according to this poll. However, a recent poll by independent pollster Michael Ashcroft suggests a much closer contest, showing 46 percent backing unity versus 45 percent against. Poll results do vary, but the general trend does suggest growing support for a united Ireland.

Election results tell a similar story. In the recent general election, the combined support for nationalist and republican parties—those that favor a united Ireland—totaled just under 39 percent, whereas the combined unionist vote amounted to 42 percent. Even so, unionists won fewer total seats due to the first-past-the-post voting system used in the U.K. Nationalist parties were outpolled in first preference votes in both the 2019 council and European elections by similar figures. Still, the nationalist vote share has risen substantially since 1998—typified by the loss of the unionist majority in both Stormont and Westminster—so even though a united Ireland still looks like it’s a long way off, the general trend favors nationalists.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/21/northern-ireland-unionism-irish-unity/

maccored

6541 wrote: »

The thread headline asks the question is Northern Ireland a failure 99 years on ?
To anybody that ever goes up there it soon becomes obvious its a complete basket case.
Virtually ungovernable. Loads of areas where no regard for law or order.
No Industry to really talk about.
The most dodge people award in the whole of Ireland goes to people from Tyrone.
Be wary of Tyrone people.

as a Tyrone person, i say Tyrone people are as dodgy as anyone else in the country

FrancieBrady

State Of The Union poll in Sunday Times.





All to play for.

Natterjack from Kerry

FrancieBrady wrote: »

State Of The Union poll in Sunday Times.





All to play for.

All very different cases. Can see Scotland leaving all right.

Can easily understand most of us supporting a poll itself in NI, which would indeed be a good thing. The resulting clear cut majority endorsement of the union would give clear vision of NI's future as a dual purpose player in both the UK, and closely aligned with Ireland and the EU. Consigning talk of irish unification back to the fringes where the more headbanger nationalists/terrorists minority, and out of the space and agenda of wider political discourse and governance of the province.

FrancieBrady

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

All very different cases. Can see Scotland leaving all right.

Can easily understand most of us supporting a poll itself in NI, which would indeed be a good thing. The resulting clear cut majority endorsement of the union would give clear vision of NI's future as a dual purpose player in both the UK, and closely aligned with Ireland and the EU. Consigning talk of irish unification back to the fringes where the more headbanger nationalists/terrorists minority, and out of the space and agenda of wider political discourse and governance of the province.

Where is the clear cut majority coming from though on those figures?

Granadino

I wonder, hypothetically speaking, what questions would be asked in a UI poll/referendum. e.g. someone in west cork might have different questions than someone in Monaghan .

coolbeans

Granadino wrote: »

I wonder, hypothetically speaking, what questions would be asked in a UI poll/referendum. e.g. someone in west cork might have different questions than someone in Monaghan .

It's not really a question for people in Cork or Monaghan though, it's a question for the people of NI.

BonnieSituation

Granadino wrote: »

I wonder, hypothetically speaking, what questions would be asked in a UI poll/referendum. e.g. someone in west cork might have different questions than someone in Monaghan .

coolbeans wrote: »

It's not really a question for people in Cork or Monaghan though, it's a question for the people of NI.

There's going to be 2 referenda; one in the north and one in the south, and they will consist of one question:

Should Northern Ireland cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland?

*That's based on the wording in the GFA. It'll be along those lines.

coolbeans

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There's going to be 2 referenda; one in the north and one in the south, and they will consist of one question:

Should Northern Ireland cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland?

*That's based on the wording in the GFA. It'll be along those lines.

Yes but the result in the Republic (I'm assuming a vote for a UI but not guaranteed) won't matter a jot if the NI electorate don't want unification.

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There's going to be 2 referenda; one in the north and one in the south, and they will consist of one question:

Should Northern Ireland cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland?

*That's based on the wording in the GFA. It'll be along those lines.

The GFA does not specify the wording of the referenda.

The one in the South will be much more complicated than that as it will require amendments to numerous clauses of the Constitution.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Where is the clear cut majority coming from though on those figures?

It really says something when the Scots want independence more Thant the Irish want unification.

That poll is pretty clear on a rejection of unification.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

That poll is pretty clear on a rejection of unification.

You must be horrified. That's support now without any plan presented, guarantees for unionists, or effects of Brexit (farm subsidies etc) setting in.

A unionist strategist with half a brain would be seeking a border poll as soon as possible because this might be the last chance they have to win it.

BonnieSituation

coolbeans wrote: »

Yes but the result in the Republic (I'm assuming a vote for a UI but not guaranteed) won't matter a jot if the NI electorate don't want unification.

And?

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

The GFA does not specify the wording of the referenda.

It sure doesn't. Did I say it did? Read what I wrote and not what you think I wrote.

The question is based on wording of a passage within the GFA on how the SoS would call a referendum. I'd envisage that any question would be along those lines. I mean, it's merely a pointer to the latest uninformed Partitionist to wander in here.

The one in the South will be much more complicated than that as it will require amendments to numerous clauses of the Constitution.

It's almost like you're making up something to dismiss my post.

Do you recall how referenda are conducted here?

We answer a question with either Tá/Yes or Níl/No.

That question is formulated in such a way to enact amendments to any articles of the Constitution as required. You see all of that heavy lifting is done long before the campaign would start via committees and debates in the Oireachtas.

Of course, you might not have known how this works of course and weren't at all being disingenuous and creating a new strawman.

coolbeans

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And?

Just clarifying is all. It's their decision ultimately, not those who live outside the 6 counties.

BonnieSituation

coolbeans wrote: »

Just clarifying is all. It's their decision ultimately, not those who live outside the 6 counties.

It's for the people of Ireland to decide.

I'm not sure what hot take you're trying to make here.

coolbeans

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And?

That's it. Read it again if you can't understand.

BonnieSituation

coolbeans wrote: »

That's it. Read it again if you can't understand.

Aren't you a smart cookie with your hot takes.

coolbeans

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It's for the people of Ireland to decide.

I'm not sure what hot take you're trying to make here.

No, in the first instance it is for the people of NI to decide not Ireland. Only if they want unification can the result from the Republic have significance. The GFA is written so that those who do not live in the six counties do not have an influence on the fate of those who live there.

coolbeans

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Aren't you a smart cookie with your hot takes.

Calm down. Less of the passive aggressive posting if you please. I'm not trying to insult you but you do seem to be easy to rile.

BonnieSituation

coolbeans wrote: »

No, in the first instance it is for the people of NI to decide not Ireland. Only if they want unification can the result from the Republic have significance. The GFA is written so that those who do not live in the six counties do not have an influence on the fate of those who live there.

Right, so as I said, it is for the people of Ireland to decide.

Or to put it another way...

It is for the people of "Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively and without external impediment" to decide.

BonnieSituation

coolbeans wrote: »

Calm down. Less of the passive aggressive posting if you please. I'm not trying to insult you but you do seem to be easy to rile.

There was no passive aggression. Just proper old-fashioned disdain for your input.

Perhaps you could read the posts as they are written before you start 'correcting' or 'commenting' upon them.

downcow

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Right, so as I said, it is for the people of Ireland to decide.

Or to put it another way...

It is for the people of "Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively and without external impediment" to decide.

You are suggesting that the people of Roi have some input to enable a UI. They don’t. They can only prevent a UI ie accept or reject if the people of NI ever Choose a UI

downcow

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There's going to be 2 referenda; one in the north and one in the south, and they will consist of one question:

Should Northern Ireland cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland?

*That's based on the wording in the GFA. It'll be along those lines.

We have just had pages of claims that NI cannot exist within a UI, your wording suggests it will exist as a devolved region within a UI.
If it can’t exist going forward then your question would need to be more honest.
Something like.
Northern Ireland will cease to exist as a region of either UK or ROI and it’s people and territory will be absorbed in a new centrally governed nation, incorporating the islands currently known as Ireland

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

You are suggesting that the people of Roi have some input to enable a UI. They don’t. They can only prevent a UI ie accept or reject if the people of NI ever Choose a UI

A UI only comes about by agreement between the two parts. As we constitutinally aspire to a UI, technically we already agree to a UI.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

We have just had pages of claims that NI cannot exist within a UI, your wording suggests it will exist as a devolved region within a UI.
If it can’t exist going forward then your question would need to be more honest.
Something like.
Northern Ireland will cease to exist as a region of either UK or ROI and it’s people and territory will be absorbed in a new centrally governed nation, incorporating the islands currently known as Ireland

There will still be a region called 'northern Ireland' Donegal Derry Antrim, Down, Tyrone Armagh Monaghan Cavan Louth etc as there always was.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There will still be a region called 'northern Ireland' Donegal Derry Antrim, Down, Tyrone Armagh Monaghan Cavan Louth etc as there always was.

Francie you need to check your grammar in that post. You seem to have got the capitals correct ok for the counties but omitted them on the name of the region you refer to. Maybe that’s how it’s done in Irish but you are currently using English.

...or surely you were not making a point and done it on purpose?

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Francie you need to check your grammar in that post. You seem to have got the capitals correct ok for the counties but omitted them on the name of the region you refer to. Maybe that’s how it’s done in Irish but you are currently using English.

...or surely you were not making a point and done it on purpose?

Northern Ireland as a state/region/country/nation or whatever you are calling it today will cease to exist in a UI downcow. It will be a geographical region/area of Ireland, as it always was and is now.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Northern Ireland as a state/region/country/nation or whatever you are calling it today will cease to exist in a UI downcow. It will be a geographical region/area of Ireland, as it always was and is now.

Now that we’ve had your little distraction. Back to the question.
That would need to be clear in any poll question (if it is the case that devolution will not be a possibility).
Would you agree?