Strong winds and possible severe thunderstorms developing late today (Sat 4th July)

M.T. Cranium

Current guidance has intensified the dynamics for a cold front and following area of unstable westerly flow about to arrive on the west coast around 5-7 p.m. today (Sat 4th July).

While the actual cold front may be dry at least along much of its length, following secondary fronts and/or troughs could become active in a strong westerly flow associated with an unusually tight jet stream developing over the central to eastern Atlantic at the present time. This will be over Ireland by this evening and overnight.

Wind gusts to 120 km/hr are possible in exposed areas and the windy interval may last for quite some time once the cold front develops and passes by. Temperatures are likely to hold rather mild for a time then drop sharply perhaps with a secondary front passage later tonight.

The main concern is for Connacht, Clare, Donegal and parts of northern Ireland but I expect this to translate rapidly to the east coast and produce some unusually blustery conditions even in central Leinster around midnight and at times on Sunday morning to mid-day. Given that trees are in full leaf, minor wind damage may be widespread.

Secure loose objects today as they could easily go on an unscheduled voyage overnight or Sunday morning when you won't enjoy being outside nearly as much (it may be pleasantly warm for a while today before this front gets closer to the country).

Met.ie have a level one wind warning in place. I could actually foresee some isolated level two (orange) conditions developing in exposed coastal and higher terrain.

Oscar Bravo

Weather Advisory for Ireland

Unseasonably windy on Saturday night and Sunday, with strong and gusty westerly winds at times.

Valid: 21:00 Saturday 04/07/2020 to 20:00 Sunday 05/07/2020

Issued: 09:00 Saturday 04/07/2020

eastmayo

Met eireann seemed to have dropped the yellow warnings for wind and gone for the advisory.Maybe they will update them later.

DOCARCH

eastmayo wrote: »

Met eireann seemed to have dropped the yellow warnings for wind and gone for the advisory.Maybe they will update them later.

They said on 7.55am forecast that latest models don't show it as windy as previously forecast....but....'stay in touch with forecasts later today'.

Meteorite58

Yeah models have fairly dramatically rowed back on the high wind potential for Sat night into Sunday morning, still windy and blustery mind you but not as severe as it was looking.

Looks like the strongest winds are now during Sunday. Models have evolved and changed so quickly over the last couple of runs, still need to keep a close eye on them, will Sunday's winds increase further ?

Looks like heavy squally showers, some thundery perhaps. Will be watching for straight line winds. Very strong Jet over Ireland early Sunday, still lots of shear available Sunday.

Thundery bursts look possible overnight but I think best chance in Northern half of the country during Sunday afternoon.

Opportunity for funnel formation perhaps.

Thunderlover

For once I'm glad that some potentially rough weather is not coming. I think this thread can be shut down.

Oneiric 3

I wouldn't get too complacent about potential this to be honest. Latest EC 06z run still has me (in a relatively sheltered location) down for 50 knot gusts during tomorrow afternoon which I would interpret that as gusts of 35 to 55 knots (highest towards the coasts) for a large part of the country. Maybe things will be toned down in later runs but it does seem that once again, I'll have bring in my outdoor pots inside to prevent them from being skinned alive.

Oneiric 3

Probability map, (based on the latest EC run) of gusts reaching or exceeding 90 km/h (48 knots) tomorrow afternoon

M.T. Cranium

Still looks to have the same potential with 100 knot winds reported at 500 mb (presumably a timely or requested plane obs) at roughly 50N 30W at 12z. I notice the warnings were retained by UKMO and downgraded by met.ie, hallmarks of shift change difference of opinion as the actual foundation. In any case the same scenario will play out, cold front is now approaching the west coast, looks to have some potential for thunderstorm development in Connacht and north Leinster, Ulster. Then into an unstable blustery flow that will provide further potential for squally showers and thunderstorms through mid-day Sunday.

I would advise a close watch on it, thickness level right now is around 567 dm, drops to 540 dm within twelve hours. That combined with the gradient at 500 mb spells trouble.

Oneiric 3

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I notice the warnings were retained by UKMO and downgraded by met.ie, hallmarks of shift change difference of opinion as the actual foundation..

Met Eireann still have an 'advisory' in place:

Weather Advisory for Ireland
Unseasonably windy on Saturday night and Sunday, with strong and gusty westerly winds at times.

Valid: 21:00 Saturday 04/07/2020 to 20:00 Sunday 05/07/2020

Issued: 09:00 Saturday 04/07/2020

https://www.met.ie/warnings

Oscar Bravo

It has turned very windy here on the west coast in the past 30 minutes. A bleek looking atlantic

Snowc

Thunderlover wrote: »

For once I'm glad that some potentially rough weather is not coming. I think this thread can be shut down.

Welcome back but you dont but any effort in to your trolling anymore but why do you make up so much rubbish on a weather forum :rolleyes:

pauldry

Wind has officially arrived in Sligo at 825pm.

Gusting near 50kph for starters

Was relatively calm and was actually 19.2c in sun at 3pm

Oneiric 3

Updated probability (12z) chart for gusts > 90 km/h tomorrow afternoon, though I think gusts of 30 to 40 knots will probably be more the norm:



I can see the logic of this to a certain extent. Relatively tight gradient over Ireland tomorrow and cool air mass that will allow more 'turbulence' within airmass as the ground heats it up a little during the day.

Storm 10

Gone very wild in Galway now with heavy drizzle

Larbre34

Storm 10 wrote: »

Gone very wild in Galway now with heavy drizzle

300 days of any year in Galway?

Eduard Khil

Very grey September evening in Dublin 11 pity it's two months earlier than scheduled. Very humid and extreme heat/pressure in the air.

SleetAndSnow

Windy along the west cork coast and increasing steadily since around 8pm

Meteorite58

To me Looks like gusting 70 to 80 km/h overland overnight, bit higher on exposed coasts.

ECM, UKMO and ICON showing widespread gusting 80 to 90 km/h tomorrow across the country, French models a bit less but showing gusting 80 km/h with a bit of 90 km/h.

Still time for changes.

Fair chance of thunderstorm development in the Nortthern half of the country , more so the further North I reckon.

fleet_admiral

Eduard Khil wrote: »

Very grey September evening in Dublin 11 pity it's two months earlier than scheduled. Very humid and extreme heat/pressure in the air.

Same in d6. Very very humid

Meteorite58

Big squally showers tomorrow, most chance of hail the further North you go I reckon.






Fast Jet overnight into tomorrow

Trebor176

It's quite windy now in Dublin 22. A miserable evening out, yet I'm not cold!

Awaaf

Windy periods interspersed with quiet periods since 5pm here in West Kerry. Peaks windy enough but nothing too exciting. I suspect the locals are even less excited than temporary blow-ins like myself.

ratracer

There goes one of my facia boards, Co Galway coast! Hope the rest of them survive

Sierra Oscar

Checking in from North Tipperary, fairly blustery down here. Wasn't expecting strong winds, caught me off guard considering its July. The garden furniture is being brought in for the night.

TallGlass2

Is anyone else in Dublin hearing the constant thunder the last 10/15 mins!

fleet_admiral

Not sure if its thunder or fireworks I can hear but there's continuous rumbles where I am (Terenure)

FunkSoulSista

It's fireworks in US ambassador party Phoenix pk

TallGlass2

FunkSoulSista wrote: »

It's fireworks in US ambassador party Phoenix pk

Ah makes sense..

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/july-4-fireworks-phoenix-park-18511555

Fairly windy for a fireworks display!

SleetAndSnow

Was some strong gusts for an hour or so in West cork but died down a bit now (right next to the coast). Still windy but just not as strong.. like an average winter's night down here

pauldry

Think 74kph the strongest so far

Will we even reach 100kph

Larbre34

81 km/h gust at Casement in the Midnight hour. Yellow thresholds likely to be exceeded widely, I think with the potential debris issue one might have been issued

Larbre34

81 km/h gust at Casement in the Midnight hour.

Yellow thresholds likely to be exceeded widely, I think with the potential debris issue one might have been issued

JCX BXC

Nothing out of the ordinary in West Clare, windy evening, on and off drizzle. That's about it really.

M.T. Cranium

The main item with this near-warning situation is potential for locally intense thunderstorm cells and the peak of that potential comes around noon to 3 p.m. when the core of strongest upper level winds coincides with an energy peak and the diurnal max from solar heating of the unstable air mass.

While these obviously won't be widespread, they will be locally quite severe with hail and strong wind gusts. There would be a slight risk situation for a weak tornado also. Inland north central counties most at risk, then diminishing levels of risk to the south.

Looking at the satellite imagery I wouldn't expect too much to happen before about 1030-1100h.

Meteorite58

No big changes in this morning's runs. Strongest winds from early afternoon gusting 80 to 90 km/h overland, easing in the evening but remain blustery. Not much rain from this in the Southern half of the country, most rain further N you go. Some big squally showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible more so in Northern counties.

pad199207

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Dublin, Kildare, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath and Clare

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Later this morning and through the afternoon, westerly winds will reach mean wind speeds of 50 to 60km/h, with gusts of 80 to 100km/h associated with any thundery downpours. Some disruption may occur.

Valid: 11:00 Sunday 05/07/2020 to 18:00 Sunday 05/07/2020

Issued: 08:00 Sunday 05/07/2020

McGiver

Very bad wind with strong gusts. Galway City.

watlantic

Strongest gust in my exposed location near Westport was 39.1 kts (72 km/h).
Squally shower just arriving here.

antodeco

Very strong gusts during the night (Lucan, Dublin). Can still the here the windows being rattled now. Think I'll skip the zoo today! Those charts are showing peak activity when I'm due out. Not looking forward to finding the balcony furniture!

Meteorite58

Windy here in Kerry getting up to 56 km/h, remaining dry . Bright sunny spells with passing cloud.

Some big showers showing up, maybe heavier more active cloud approaching the NW, N now into the afternoon.









Latest AROME 06Z

pauldry

In Sligo since the "bad" weather started yesterday evening we have had 1mm of rain.

SophieLockhart

'Violent shower' at Casement on the midday reports.

nthclare

A lot of the water table's in Clare are well up,the falls in Ennistymon are in full flow, and the waters dark brown.

There's going to be a lot of fresh water flowing off the land, not good for watersports as whatever flow's off the land will be cold water definitely not as warm as the ocean temperature.

JCX BXC

nthclare wrote: »

A lot of the water table's in Clare are well up,the falls in Ennistymon are in full flow, and the waters dark brown.

There's going to be a lot of fresh water flowing off the land, not good for watersports as whatever flow's off the land will be cold water definitely not as warm as the ocean temperature.

Ocean Temp is around 14.6°c off coast of Clare, Shannon airport soil temp for the week 27/06-04/07 is 14.0°c. Hardly make much of a difference?

pauldry

87 kph in Mace Head

nthclare

JCX BXC wrote: »

Ocean Temp is around 14.6°c off coast of Clare, Shannon airport soil temp for the week 27/06-04/07 is 14.0°c. Hardly make much of a difference?

You're talking averages, I'm sure if you checked the water temperature in certain places you'll find some differences.

The soil around the airport would be different too, say anywhere near the lowlands where you've a lot of rain accumulated you'll find the soil temperature less than where there's shade etc. There's a big difference between the temperature of the soil beside a building and the temperature of the soil where there's a run off.

I'm sure the temperature in the airport at the moment isn't exactly low, I'd say it's at boiling point at the moment.

If you paddled out on a surfboard where there's a lot of fresh water running off, especially in Lahinch at high tide you'll see the discoloration in the water with your naked eye.
The Inagh river always empties into Liscannor bay and all the run off from the land changes the colour and temperature of the bay for a short time.
As well as that, if there's little swell and wave action it'll take a few days for the temperature to regulate again.

Glenomra

The discolouration in the runoff in lahinch at high tide isn't all from the Inagh river unfortunately.

nthclare

Glenomra wrote: »

The discolouration in the runoff in lahinch at high tide isn't all from the Inagh river unfortunately.

I know it comes off the land, especially all the low cliff's along where the reef's are, there's another stream coming out from Cregg beach too..

Mortelaro

pad199207 wrote: »

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Dublin, Kildare, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath and Clare

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Later this morning and through the afternoon, westerly winds will reach mean wind speeds of 50 to 60km/h, with gusts of 80 to 100km/h associated with any thundery downpours. Some disruption may occur.

Valid: 11:00 Sunday 05/07/2020 to 18:00 Sunday 05/07/2020

Issued: 08:00 Sunday 05/07/2020

Max gust in Arklow between 3 and 4pm today was 74kmh
Currently Gusting in the high 60s
A few very short but very sharp showers

M.T. Cranium

The only evidence of thunderstorms I've seen on radar would be in east Ulster around Belfast. Seemed to become more active once it hit Britain. Quite gusty for July though, a fairly normal November day perhaps.