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Strong winds and possible severe thunderstorms developing late today (Sat 4th July)

  • 04-07-2020 7:12am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Current guidance has intensified the dynamics for a cold front and following area of unstable westerly flow about to arrive on the west coast around 5-7 p.m. today (Sat 4th July).

    While the actual cold front may be dry at least along much of its length, following secondary fronts and/or troughs could become active in a strong westerly flow associated with an unusually tight jet stream developing over the central to eastern Atlantic at the present time. This will be over Ireland by this evening and overnight.

    Wind gusts to 120 km/hr are possible in exposed areas and the windy interval may last for quite some time once the cold front develops and passes by. Temperatures are likely to hold rather mild for a time then drop sharply perhaps with a secondary front passage later tonight.

    The main concern is for Connacht, Clare, Donegal and parts of northern Ireland but I expect this to translate rapidly to the east coast and produce some unusually blustery conditions even in central Leinster around midnight and at times on Sunday morning to mid-day. Given that trees are in full leaf, minor wind damage may be widespread.

    Secure loose objects today as they could easily go on an unscheduled voyage overnight or Sunday morning when you won't enjoy being outside nearly as much (it may be pleasantly warm for a while today before this front gets closer to the country).

    Met.ie have a level one wind warning in place. I could actually foresee some isolated level two (orange) conditions developing in exposed coastal and higher terrain.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,391 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Weather Advisory for Ireland

    Unseasonably windy on Saturday night and Sunday, with strong and gusty westerly winds at times.

    Valid: 21:00 Saturday 04/07/2020 to 20:00 Sunday 05/07/2020

    Issued: 09:00 Saturday 04/07/2020


  • Registered Users Posts: 655 ✭✭✭ eastmayo


    Met eireann seemed to have dropped the yellow warnings for wind and gone for the advisory.Maybe they will update them later.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,102 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    eastmayo wrote: »
    Met eireann seemed to have dropped the yellow warnings for wind and gone for the advisory.Maybe they will update them later.

    They said on 7.55am forecast that latest models don't show it as windy as previously forecast....but....'stay in touch with forecasts later today'.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Yeah models have fairly dramatically rowed back on the high wind potential for Sat night into Sunday morning, still windy and blustery mind you but not as severe as it was looking.

    Looks like the strongest winds are now during Sunday. Models have evolved and changed so quickly over the last couple of runs, still need to keep a close eye on them, will Sunday's winds increase further ?

    Looks like heavy squally showers, some thundery perhaps. Will be watching for straight line winds. Very strong Jet over Ireland early Sunday, still lots of shear available Sunday.

    Thundery bursts look possible overnight but I think best chance in Northern half of the country during Sunday afternoon.

    Opportunity for funnel formation perhaps.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11 ✭✭✭ Thunderlover


    For once I'm glad that some potentially rough weather is not coming. I think this thread can be shut down.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,030 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    I wouldn't get too complacent about potential this to be honest. Latest EC 06z run still has me (in a relatively sheltered location) down for 50 knot gusts during tomorrow afternoon which I would interpret that as gusts of 35 to 55 knots (highest towards the coasts) for a large part of the country. Maybe things will be toned down in later runs but it does seem that once again, I'll have bring in my outdoor pots inside to prevent them from being skinned alive.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,030 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Probability map, (based on the latest EC run) of gusts reaching or exceeding 90 km/h (48 knots) tomorrow afternoon

    4DhcHZg.png

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Still looks to have the same potential with 100 knot winds reported at 500 mb (presumably a timely or requested plane obs) at roughly 50N 30W at 12z. I notice the warnings were retained by UKMO and downgraded by met.ie, hallmarks of shift change difference of opinion as the actual foundation. In any case the same scenario will play out, cold front is now approaching the west coast, looks to have some potential for thunderstorm development in Connacht and north Leinster, Ulster. Then into an unstable blustery flow that will provide further potential for squally showers and thunderstorms through mid-day Sunday.

    I would advise a close watch on it, thickness level right now is around 567 dm, drops to 540 dm within twelve hours. That combined with the gradient at 500 mb spells trouble.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,030 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    I notice the warnings were retained by UKMO and downgraded by met.ie, hallmarks of shift change difference of opinion as the actual foundation..

    Met Eireann still have an 'advisory' in place:

    Weather Advisory for Ireland
    Unseasonably windy on Saturday night and Sunday, with strong and gusty westerly winds at times.

    Valid: 21:00 Saturday 04/07/2020 to 20:00 Sunday 05/07/2020

    Issued: 09:00 Saturday 04/07/2020

    https://www.met.ie/warnings

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,391 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    It has turned very windy here on the west coast in the past 30 minutes. A bleek looking atlantic


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  • Registered Users Posts: 612 ✭✭✭ Snowc


    For once I'm glad that some potentially rough weather is not coming. I think this thread can be shut down.

    Welcome back ;) but you dont but any effort in to your trolling anymore but why do you make up so much rubbish on a weather forum :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Wind has officially arrived in Sligo at 825pm.

    Gusting near 50kph for starters

    Was relatively calm and was actually 19.2c in sun at 3pm


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,030 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Updated probability (12z) chart for gusts > 90 km/h tomorrow afternoon, though I think gusts of 30 to 40 knots will probably be more the norm:

    ywUMGwD.png

    I can see the logic of this to a certain extent. Relatively tight gradient over Ireland tomorrow and cool air mass that will allow more 'turbulence' within airmass as the ground heats it up a little during the day.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Gone very wild in Galway now with heavy drizzle


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,135 ✭✭✭✭ Larbre34


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Gone very wild in Galway now with heavy drizzle

    300 days of any year in Galway?


  • Registered Users Posts: 796 ✭✭✭ Eduard Khil


    Very grey September evening in Dublin 11 pity it's two months earlier than scheduled. Very humid and extreme heat/pressure in the air.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭ SleetAndSnow


    Windy along the west cork coast and increasing steadily since around 8pm


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    To me Looks like gusting 70 to 80 km/h overland overnight, bit higher on exposed coasts.

    ECM, UKMO and ICON showing widespread gusting 80 to 90 km/h tomorrow across the country, French models a bit less but showing gusting 80 km/h with a bit of 90 km/h.

    Still time for changes.

    Fair chance of thunderstorm development in the Nortthern half of the country , more so the further North I reckon.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭ fleet_admiral


    Very grey September evening in Dublin 11 pity it's two months earlier than scheduled. Very humid and extreme heat/pressure in the air.

    Same in d6. Very very humid


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Big squally showers tomorrow, most chance of hail the further North you go I reckon.

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    Fast Jet overnight into tomorrow

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,357 ✭✭✭ Trebor176


    It's quite windy now in Dublin 22. A miserable evening out, yet I'm not cold!


  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭ Awaaf


    Windy periods interspersed with quiet periods since 5pm here in West Kerry. Peaks windy enough but nothing too exciting. I suspect the locals are even less excited than temporary blow-ins like myself.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,652 ✭✭✭ ratracer


    There goes one of my facia boards, Co Galway coast! Hope the rest of them survive


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 8,175 CMod ✭✭✭✭ Sierra Oscar


    Checking in from North Tipperary, fairly blustery down here. Wasn't expecting strong winds, caught me off guard considering its July. The garden furniture is being brought in for the night.


  • Registered Users Posts: 680 ✭✭✭ TallGlass2


    Is anyone else in Dublin hearing the constant thunder the last 10/15 mins!


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭ fleet_admiral


    Not sure if its thunder or fireworks I can hear but there's continuous rumbles where I am (Terenure)


  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭ FunkSoulSista


    It's fireworks in US ambassador party Phoenix pk


  • Registered Users Posts: 680 ✭✭✭ TallGlass2


    It's fireworks in US ambassador party Phoenix pk

    Ah makes sense..

    https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/july-4-fireworks-phoenix-park-18511555

    Fairly windy for a fireworks display!


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭ SleetAndSnow


    Was some strong gusts for an hour or so in West cork but died down a bit now (right next to the coast). Still windy but just not as strong.. like an average winter's night down here :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Think 74kph the strongest so far

    Will we even reach 100kph


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