Royal Ascot

longshotvalue

Royal Ascot Day 1


1:15


It’s not often I’m bowled over by a big price but I was very surprised that Flaming Spear was as big as 25/1 here. His first run last year was as good as he ever was in a top class group 2 race. He simply wasn’t the same after that. He also has a record of throwing in very poor runs and turning it around again after. He has some very good runs at Ascot along with a good record fresh. I’m hopeful he will be ready to go here. That run last year is at least 10 lbs. better than his current rating of 100, and with 6 places available in a few places, he is a max EW bet.


3 Points EW 25/1 6 places Paddy/betfair/sky

BoldReason

Just reviewing Tuesdays card now myself. The Queen Anne is a horrendous race again this year.
I actually can't believe the price of one in this race. Marie's Diamond is probably only a group 2 horse in theory but you could say the same thing about most of the field. I backed him on BF there at 65.0 but even 40/1 4 places is absolutely bonkers.
He is about a 5/1 shot at worst to finish in the 4 imo. Will surely go off closer to 20/1 on the day.
The run the last day would see him challenge here for me.

Andrew00

Lot of awful races this year at Royal ascot.

Francie Barrett

Andrew00 wrote: »

Lot of awful races this year at Royal ascot.

Basically the Galway festival but with fancier hats.

Andrew00

I wonder will Pinatubo go for the St James Palace? Think he will win if so

Francie Barrett

3:35 - Battaash should win this and has everything in its favour by the looks of thing, but Hit The Bid is a massive price at 50/1 to pick up some places money, and maybe even the pieces if things somehow doing go right for the favourite.

posturingpat

Don't know how anybody having a serious bet can have a go on battash bad and all as the race is, he can't be trusted at Ascot.
I'd say therell be am emphasis on making it a test and I'll try have a dig for an animal that 6 furlong be no issue to at a wild price this evening after work.

BoldReason

posturingpat wrote: »

Don't know how anybody having a serious bet can have a go on battash bad and all as the race is, he can't be trusted at Ascot.
I'd say therell be am emphasis on making it a test and I'll try have a dig for an animal that 6 furlong be no issue to at a wild price this evening after work.

When you say he can't be trusted at Ascot. Apart from his one 2yo run where he wasn't yet gelded and even more of a lunatic than he is now. He's been beaten by 1 horse there. Price is skinny enough now but I really think his ascot form is overdone.
As an aside I do like John Quinns Liberty Beach to run a race. She gets a 3yo and fillies allowance and ran a lovely race at Haydock a week or so ago. But think it is Battaash's to lose.

Dayjur

Andrew00 wrote: »

I wonder will Pinatubo go for the St James Palace? Think he will win if so

He hasn't wintered well looks tiny compared to the other 3yo

The Tetrarch

Big fields, little form.
I might have Euro 5 on every race for an interest.

The Tetrarch

13:15 First Contact, 23 decimal
13:50 Plumatic, 34
14:25 Hold Fast, 26.3
15:00 Arthurs Kingdom, 6.6
15:35 Glass Slippers, 6.4
16:10 Magic Lily, 15
16:40 Pianissimo, 19.76

RivetingRoger

If Battash loses I won't place another flat bet or any bet till the Charlie Hall
I am that certain he wins
Absolute different league to this mob
Best 5f horse on the planet

zpehtsfd

RivetingRoger wrote: »

If Battash loses I won't place another flat bet or any bet till the Charlie Hall
I am that certain he wins
Absolute different league to this mob
Best 5f horse on the planet

Has never lost a race first time out. He going to be wound up. Just the way you want this one.

Cal4567

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Basically the Galway festival but with fancier hats.

Probably still the world's premier flat racing spectacle and even more so if we had full international participants. You are joking comparing it to Galway, a meeting with 2/3 high quality races only spread across 7 days.

Going through the cards, it is probably still at about 80% level. After the last 3 months, I'd be happy with that.

Slattsy

RivetingRoger wrote: »

If Battash loses I won't place another flat bet or any bet till the Charlie Hall
I am that certain he wins
Absolute different league to this mob
Best 5f horse on the planet

Does look bombproof.

longshotvalue

4:40 Ascot




Ashutor stood our for me here at a big price. He has some eyepopping form on the flat in french staying races, and off this mark he can get involved if he improves on his hurdles form.




1 Point EW 40/1 5 pl hills/vc 4pl 365

longshotvalue

1:50




It looks blindingly obvious that Mustashry is the bet here. He is certainly one of the top 2-3 in the race and on his day is good enough to win.




I've had the free bet with betfair exchange on this at 18.0 , but he is generally available at 14/1




1 Point win 14/1 Gen

longshotvalue

3:35



I'm a glutton for punishment but i think there is a big performance in Sergei Prokofiev. He has been kept at ballydoyle for a reason and i'm convinced he'll surprise up someday. This is the worst Group 1 of the week apart from Battaash .



1 Point EW 40/1 Gen

Shades Of Blue in the Kings Stand. 33/1 PP. Going each way.

2 good runs there as a 2yr old. Lightly raced. Benefit of a recent run. Battaash won't win.

Kauto

Cal4567 wrote: »

Probably still the world's premier flat racing spectacle and even more so if we had full international participants. You are joking comparing it to Galway, a meeting with 2/3 high quality races only spread across 7 days.

Going through the cards, it is probably still at about 80% level. After the last 3 months, I'd be happy with that.

It's a muck card tomorrow. Glorified group 3 standard racing taking out the obvious one in the king stand.

posturingpat

BoldReason wrote: »

When you say he can't be trusted at Ascot. Apart from his one 2yo run where he wasn't yet gelded and even more of a lunatic than he is now. He's been beaten by 1 horse there. Price is skinny enough now but I really think his ascot form is overdone.
As an aside I do like John Quinns Liberty Beach to run a race. She gets a 3yo and fillies allowance and ran a lovely race at Haydock a week or so ago. But think it is Battaash's to lose.

The fact is he has run there 3 times and never won. He is coming off the worst run of his career and is the one they'll all be gunning to beat and will be odds on withoit one of the top handful of jockeys onboard. I couldn't back him at all at the price.

BoldReason

posturingpat wrote: »

The fact is he has run there 3 times and never won. He is coming off the worst run of his career and is the one they'll all be gunning to beat and will be odds on withoit one of the top handful of jockeys onboard. I couldn't back him at all at the price.

Fair enough I still don't see being 2nd twice to Blue Point as a negative when compared to this bunch. Blue Point would probably be 1/2 against this lot.
I might play if even money is around myself. Think that would be very fair. Each to their own i guess.

madmoose

RivetingRoger wrote: »

If Battash loses I won't place another flat bet or any bet till the Charlie Hall
I am that certain he wins
Absolute different league to this mob
Best 5f horse on the planet

He was half the track behind Glass Slippers on their last run....

Fancy her to back it up and win here.

posturingpat

BoldReason wrote: »

Fair enough I still don't see being 2nd twice to Blue Point as a negative when compared to this bunch. Blue Point would probably be 1/2 against this lot.
I might play if even money is around myself. Think that would be very fair. Each to their own i guess.

I probably should've said I'm a big ****e and might back odds on less than half a dozen times a year :pac:
San benedeto in the last is more my kind of price, close to top drawer over jumps and could have a lovely mark, very interesting Nicholls puts him in here apparently out of nowhere.
I suspect it's not out of the blue for him though.

madmoose

Blue Laurette in the last was very eyecatching just behind Moon King at Haydock and looks a cracking ew bet 5 and 6 places in the last race, he will stay fine and his trainer won the race last year with the Grand Visir. General 14/1 and 16/1 available.

BoldReason

madmoose wrote: »

He was half the track behind Glass Slippers on their last run....

Fancy her to back it up and win here.

At the risk of sounding like the founding member of the Battaash fan club I wouldn't pay much attention to that run. That 5f course in longchamp might as well be run around a dog track. It was like a bog that day too. I would forgive any horse a bad run there. I'll be interested to see if Glass Slippers can back up those runs in longchamp actually. I wouldn't be so sure.

EICVD

aidankkk wrote: »

3:35



I'm a glutton for punishment but i think there is a big performance in Sergei Prokofiev. He has been kept at ballydoyle for a reason and i'm convinced he'll surprise up someday. This is the worst Group 1 of the week apart from Battaash .



1 Point EW 40/1 Gen

Wasn’t trying too hard at Naas last week either

posturingpat

EICVD wrote: »

Wasn’t trying too hard at Naas last week either

Very eye-catching prep. I'll be having an ew poke.

Slattsy

Ground gone soft

supremenovice

Billesdon Brook, dual G1 winner, looks a good each way shout in what seems to be an open looking Queen Anne

robbie67

Does anybody know why the bookies are still closed thanks

manlad

robbie67 wrote: »

Does anybody know why the bookies are still closed thanks

Shops had to close again due to a loop hole in irish legislation, supposedly a mistake by the government.

akelly02

Lads


Do any of ye watch Blair white previews?

i find him decent , has one up of Royal Ascot, fanicies miss yoda over frankies yoke in the ribblesdale

RivetingRoger

I may regret my Battash bullishness with all this rain

byronbay2

BoldReason wrote: »

Fair enough I still don't see being 2nd twice to Blue Point as a negative when compared to this bunch. Blue Point would probably be 1/2 against this lot.
I might play if even money is around myself. Think that would be very fair. Each to their own i guess.

Evens on BF now.

manlad

manlad wrote: »

Shops had to close again due to a loop hole in irish legislation, supposedly a mistake by the government.

Boyle's open today

BoldReason

byronbay2 wrote: »

Evens on BF now.

Cheers. I had a back set up at 2.02 and has been matched so full steam ahead. Rain isn't ideal but I'm gonna roll with it I think.

BoldReason

The amount of seconds or 1 place outside the places when each way in after backing since racing has resumed is something unnatural.

deeks

supremenovice wrote: »

Billesdon Brook, dual G1 winner, looks a good each way shout in what seems to be an open looking Queen Anne

Just came in to post something similar. She looks a huge price in an awful looking group one. Should be nicely tuned up after a pipe opener as well. I know both her group one wins have been against her own sex but there's nothing too scary in the opposition here.

Dayjur

what a drift on circus maximus

supremenovice

BoldReason wrote: »

Just reviewing Tuesdays card now myself. The Queen Anne is a horrendous race again this year.
I actually can't believe the price of one in this race. Marie's Diamond is probably only a group 2 horse in theory but you could say the same thing about most of the field. I backed him on BF there at 65.0 but even 40/1 4 places is absolutely bonkers.
He is about a 5/1 shot at worst to finish in the 4 imo. Will surely go off closer to 20/1 on the day.
The run the last day would see him challenge here for me.

Good shout

tryfix

Ryan Moore is riding very well at the moment. On Circus Maximus today and Love in 1,000 Guineas he was prominent through the races and strong in the finish. Such a refreshing change from his hold up tactics of the last few years.

BoldReason

supremenovice wrote: »

Good shout

Cheers.
I'll be honest I only barely broke even on it as had a win bet on BF and each way bet this yesterday in Boyles.

supremenovice

I loved the guts and determination of Circus there. I think hes roared to the top of my favourite horse on the Flat list

BoldReason

Just watched the race back there. Mother of God Jim Crowley has had a howler on Mohaather.

I must say I was gung ho to be against the top end of the market but they were probably just a level to far for the ones behind.

longshotvalue

That was a huge performance. Reminds me of the Giant. Will to win there was of the charts

BoldReason

That was fairly impressive. The oaks will be a cracker between the front 2 if she goes there.

Rabbit Redux

Now a leading Epsom Oaks fancy after winning the Ribblesdale - something we've never heard before.

BoldReason

Have taken on Mogul here in the next with Mohican Heights really liked his 2 runs last year for Fozzy Stack and then David Simcock. Think there is a bit of value there at 4/1

madmoose

Lets see if Mogul can justify the derby hype here, i know firms out to get him but i thought he would be solid odds on but evens across the board currently.

Dayjur

pathetic getting beat by that ginnit