Long term WFH and impact on property

Cows Go µ

Niko White Spruce wrote: »

If both are on headsets it’s not massively different to side by side or back to back with someone in an office. Could also take calls in another room if they are only now and then rather than constant calls all day.

That depends on what job you are in I suppose. Me and my boyfriend are working from home at the moment and we are both in the living room as its the only room with good enough internet. It's fine in that people on my end can't hear him and his callers can hear me.

He's in tech support and it doesn't really matter if I hear him. But I work in finance and he should not be able to see my screen or hear my calls as I'm dealing with sensitive information. We don't have a choice in the matter at the moment and when I mentioned it to my boss he said not to tell him as there is nothing anybody can do but it wouldn't be allowed if it wasn't for the lockdown.

We are hopefully renovating in the next year so we will make a proper office and add a desk to a spare room so we are able to both work at home if we need to

Ray Palmer

People are acting like WFH is perfect and everyone wants to do it and will love to be in the countryside instead of a city.
There are lots of studies on it and people tend to put on weight along with feeling isolated. Fine for some but not everyone. Personally I don't want to spend all my time with my wife all day everyday even if it means just being in the same building. We both are in a lot of meetings so wouldn't be able to be in the same room. So that is 2 office spaces needed in the house. Also confidential information is an issue. Companies have relax data concerns but before many staff were denied remote access and likely to come back up.
My elderly relatives live in Dublin and relied heavily on us and still are. As with decentralisation plans this is a huge issue. They tried to insist people move away from family and friends. In some cases suggesting sources move to different parts of the country.
I personally like having a separate place that is home and not work. For years I refused remote access because I would be asked to logon at all hours.
Some will take it but you will need a larger house to work from home and never get away from work. I think people are wishing a shake up for what they feel should change.
Open plan offices and office space are going to change. So don't assume that companies are just going to get rid of them.

Graham

Ray Palmer wrote: »

People are acting like WFH is perfect and everyone wants to do it and will love to be in the countryside instead of a city.

I don't think anyone has suggested that.

It will suit some employees / roles / employers.

Ray Palmer

Graham wrote: »

I don't think anyone has suggested that.

It will suit some employees / roles / employers.

The 2nd post certainly seemed to suggest it

GreeBo

Graham wrote: »

I don't think anyone has suggested that.

It will suit some employees / roles / employers.

To be fair some posters are strongly stating that there will be mass movement to work from home and people moving from their current locations because WFH has no downsides and is win win.

seamus

Ray Palmer wrote: »

The 2nd post certainly seemed to suggest it

It did. But otherwise even though it may not be 100% working from home, the effect will still be large. It will be double-digit percentages, and that will continue rising over time.

We already know that a considerable amount of the pressure on the Dublin housing market is down to industries that are highly conducive to home working - "white collar" jobs, technology, finance, etc.

While a certain amount of these people will continue to want to live in close proximity to urban areas, there will be enough of a drop-off to ease the pressure and restore some semblance of sanity to the market.

Proximity to the city will be less of a concern when you don't have to commute.

I think we will definitely see a reduction in prices when it comes to tiny shoeboxes in close proximity to the city. People will start placing more value on garden space, access to ameneities, public space, traffic, pollution, etc, and commuting distance will take a considerable back seat. Suburban living might see more stability as it balances green space & urban proximity, but I would expect we will see demand for city centre living drop off a cliff and demand for rural living skyrocket.

hometruths

GreeBo wrote: »

To be fair some posters are strongly stating that there will be mass movement to work from home and people moving from their current locations because WFH has no downsides and is win win.

Nonsense.

Snow Garden

My company just announced that we can all WFH until mid September. They will look at opening the office then. Most people are delighted.

hometruths

Ireland ahead of the global average on this trend according to the latest PWC Global insights survey...

61% of Irish finance leaders believe that they may make remote work a permanent option for roles that allow it

https://www.pwc.ie/reports/pwc-covid-19-cfo-pulse-survey-30-april-2020.html

smurgen

schmittel wrote: »

Ireland ahead of the global average on this trend according to the latest PWC Global insights survey...



https://www.pwc.ie/reports/pwc-covid-19-cfo-pulse-survey-30-april-2020.html

That's a good indication. I can see alot of industry leader and publications now looking at the end of traditional office working. See this piece in the Times.

https://www.ft.com/content/f43b8212-950a-11ea-af4b-499244625ac4

Ray Palmer

Ray Palmer wrote: »

People are acting like WFH is perfect and everyone wants to do it and will love to be in the countryside instead of a city.
There are lots of studies on it and people tend to put on weight along with feeling isolated. Fine for some but not everyone. Personally I don't want to spend all my time with my wife all day everyday even if it means just being in the same building. We both are in a lot of meetings so wouldn't be able to be in the same room. So that is 2 office spaces needed in the house. Also confidential information is an issue. Companies have relax data concerns but before many staff were denied remote access and likely to come back up.
My elderly relatives live in Dublin and relied heavily on us and still are. As with decentralisation plans this is a huge issue. They tried to insist people move away from family and friends. In some cases suggesting sources move to different parts of the country.
I personally like having a separate place that is home and not work. For years I refused remote access because I would be asked to logon at all hours.
Some will take it but you will need a larger house to work from home and never get away from work. I think people are wishing a shake up for what they feel should change.
Open plan offices and office space are going to change. So don't assume that companies are just going to get rid of them.

I think it’s hard to argue that the WFH advantages don’t far outweigh the disadvantages. Like how can say cutting two hours commuting out of your day not be a massive advantage for anyone even if it’s only 2 or 3 days a week. Being able to live where you want is also massive imo, an awful lot of people want to live where they have grown up close to family etc and not in a big city being able to WFH a good percentage of the time enables this massively as even if you have to go in 1/2 days a long commute isn’t a big deal.

I think as others have described a situation of only going into the office/work when needed is the best outcome. For some this could mean close to 100% work from home for others 50% depending on many factors but going into the office to spend a day working at the computer should be something done less and less with going in for a stack of meetings or if you have hands on stuff to do on designated days being a far better approach.

I also don’t really get this never getting away from work thing I see some people mention. Regardless of where we are working nowadays, certainly in my area of work you are always only an email app away from checking up on things at work. When I work from home I work my normal day, maybe a little longer as I don’t have commute time. I walk out and close the door of the office and that’s it, if I’m back in the home office again later in the evening, or go in to check stuff or on a weekend I’m doing it as it’s necessary and I’d either be in there after getting home from work or Id have stayed in the office so in reality it makes no difference really in fact it’s better as again you cut the commute so maybe that extra 30 to 60 mins might be enough to finish up something you would have to do on getting home or staying back late to do.

salonfire

Niko White Spruce wrote: »

I think it’s hard to argue that the WFH advantages don’t far outweigh the disadvantages. Like how can say cutting two hours commuting out of your day not be a massive advantage for anyone even if it’s only 2 or 3 days a week. Being able to live where you want is also massive imo, an awful lot of people want to live where they have grown up close to family etc and not in a big city being able to WFH a good percentage of the time enables this massively as even if you have to go in 1/2 days a long commute isn’t a big deal.

I think as others have described a situation of only going into the office/work when needed is the best outcome. For some this could mean close to 100% work from home for others 50% depending on many factors but going into the office to spend a day working at the computer should be something done less and less with going in for a stack of meetings or if you have hands on stuff to do on designated days being a far better approach.

I also don’t really get this never getting away from work thing I see some people mention. Regardless of where we are working nowadays, certainly in my area of work you are always only an email app away from checking up on things at work. When I work from home I work my normal day, maybe a little longer as I don’t have commute time. I walk out and close the door of the office and that’s it, if I’m back in the home office again later in the evening, or go in to check stuff or on a weekend I’m doing it as it’s necessary and I’d either be in there after getting home from work or Id have stayed in the office so in reality it makes no difference really in fact it’s better as again you cut the commute so maybe that extra 30 to 60 mins might be enough to finish up something you would have to do on getting home or staying back late to do.

You're assuming your job will always be there. Hint: it may not.

Then you may need to take another job that requires you to be physically onsite and you are left commuting from your massive house with its massive empty office for hours every day because beside you is nothing but fields.

To counter the shift in jobs moving abroad, Ireland needs to really drive into attracting manufacturing again. Even producing PPE by high-tech automation.

That will require technicians and workers to be on-site

CPTM

Working from home will be the new norm for a huge amount of office jobs. Anyone who can't see that coming has their head in the sand because it benefits both employer and employee.

I know I would gladly take a 10/15k (even more?) pay cut for a job which allows me to work from home 5 days a week. After taxes, commuting costs, it just isn't worth the hassle. Not only will a lot of companies allow for it, they'll be forced to do it because they will just lose their staff. Would you rather a 50k job that allows you to work from a new 4 bed house in Wexford? Or an 85k job that requires you to commute 2 hours a day from a crappy old 3 bed semi in some dodgy part of Dublin. No brainer for me. Wexford all the way.

PhilOssophy

Fred Cryton wrote: »

Did you ever ask yourself why most employers block things like Twitter and Facebook in the office? it's because they want the full attention of the people they are paying to be there. They'll never get that if they let them wfh.

Did you ever ask yourself if people might have access to things like Twitter and Facebook in the office through another device, I dunno, maybe a mobile phone? A slacker in the office will be a slacker at home!

awec

I see Facebook will allow up to 50% to work from home permanently but those who do it will take pay and benefit cuts.

Article on sky news. Only mentions Silicon Valley so not sure if it’s specific to there or not.

Pay would be adjusted to the top end of your local market. I would guess it’s not this simple as that would be a serious cut for some areas.

GreeBo

CPTM wrote: »

Working from home will be the new norm for a huge amount of office jobs. Anyone who can't see that coming has their head in the sand because it benefits both employer and employee.

I know I would gladly take a 10/15k (even more?) pay cut for a job which allows me to work from home 5 days a week. After taxes, commuting costs, it just isn't worth the hassle. Not only will a lot of companies allow for it, they'll be forced to do it because they will just lose their staff. Would you rather a 50k job that allows you to work from a new 4 bed house in Wexford? Or an 85k job that requires you to commute 2 hours a day from a crappy old 3 bed semi in some dodgy part of Dublin. No brainer for me. Wexford all the way.

That's a bit of a circular argument tbf.
If companies aren't allowing it, then where are they losing their staff to?

Dav010

CPTM wrote: »

Working from home will be the new norm for a huge amount of office jobs. Anyone who can't see that coming has their head in the sand because it benefits both employer and employee.

I know I would gladly take a 10/15k (even more?) pay cut for a job which allows me to work from home 5 days a week. After taxes, commuting costs, it just isn't worth the hassle. Not only will a lot of companies allow for it, they'll be forced to do it because they will just lose their staff. Would you rather a 50k job that allows you to work from a new 4 bed house in Wexford? Or an 85k job that requires you to commute 2 hours a day from a crappy old 3 bed semi in some dodgy part of Dublin. No brainer for me. Wexford all the way.

I’m sorry if this has been asked previously on the thread, but if WFH becomes more and more the norm for tech businesses, why would the employer restrict recruitment to the domestic market? Surely if there is no physical need for the employee to attend a particular location, job advertisements would be open anyone, anywhere who meets the required qualifications/experience? So now domestic applicants or even those already in employment are in competition with people in much lower cost economies.

Captcha

schmittel wrote: »

The discussion in the 2020 thread was getting OT for that thread but it is nonetheless a valid topic in the context of the impact it will have on property in generally.

Personally I believe WFH is here to stay in a meaningful way, and Covid has just accelerated what was likely to be a long term trend.

An IBEC survey shows some support for it amongst employees:



There are those who argue that it's just a flash in the pan because lots of employees like the human contact, office banter, structure, routine etc.

However this is ignoring a key factor - what do the employers want? It will be the employers who are the long term drivers of the trend and the fact that IBEC have commissioned this survey is interesting in itself.

It is true that is not for everybody - some people need more management than others and are more productive in an office environment.

But the result of that will simply be that employers will place a premium in future on employees who have the necessary skillset to work remotely and reliably.

If this comes to pass it will profoundly impact the market nationally, because less people will be willing to pay the premium for Dublin, particularly those with children.

One hears argument that Dublin will always win out irrespective of job location because of the sheer wealth of amenities it offers compared to the rest of the country.

This is true if all other things are equal, but currently they're not equal in that you have to pay a hell of lot extra for those amenities.

Inevitably that gap will fall, both in rents and purchase prices.

I am not suggesting that hordes of people are going to suddenly leave Dublin in the short term.

Just that a small % of those who are currently renting or thinking of buying Dublin will question if a) they absolutely have to be in Dublin and b) if they don't, is it worth paying the premium?

In the medium term I think it is inevitable that this % will increase until such time that the premium is believed to be worth it and then the gap will level off.

In the long term I think it will lead to a problem of oversupply of family homes in Dublin that will rebase prices nationally.

Amenities will follow people too, so we will over time, have a less concentrated set of amenities in Dublin, more clusters of amenities all over the country.

Captcha

Dav010 wrote: »

I’m sorry if this has been asked previously on the thread, but if WFH becomes more and more the norm for tech businesses, why would the employer restrict recruitment to the domestic market? Surely if there is no physical need for the employee to attend a particular location, job advertisements would be open anyone, anywhere who meets the required qualifications/experience? So now domestic applicants or even those already in employment are in competition with people in much lower cost economies.

Tax reasons, you cannot work from home from another country. Although if you work 5 days a week from home, would be a pain to enforce maybe?

mvl

Captcha wrote: »

Tax reasons, you cannot work from home from another country. Although if you work 5 days a week from home, would be a pain to enforce maybe?

of course you can, in scenarios where the company already has office in that country, some companies may be creative about taxation. it has a cost - if it is worth it for a global workforce - i don't know.

for example, was wondering if in a way it is similar with taxation policies when the company sends someone to work abroad - think how complicated is the taxation for executives ...

awec wrote: »

I see Facebook will allow up to 50% to work from home permanently but those who do it will take pay and benefit cuts.

Article on sky news. Only mentions Silicon Valley so not sure if it’s specific to there or not.

Pay would be adjusted to the top end of your local market. I would guess it’s not this simple as that would be a serious cut for some areas.

interesting, one to watch out.
but this is possibly taking back the top-up they had to give due to geographical location ? maybe it makes sense ...

GreeBo

Captcha wrote: »

Tax reasons, you cannot work from home from another country. Although if you work 5 days a week from home, would be a pain to enforce maybe?

You can, your employer just might have to pay tax there, they may already have s commercial presence there.

GreeBo

Captcha wrote: »

Amenities will follow people too, so we will over time, have a less concentrated set of amenities in Dublin, more clusters of amenities all over the country.

Not too many people will move before amenities, especially if you are moving from a capital city.

awec

mvl wrote: »

of course you can, in scenarios where the company already has office in that country, some companies may be creative about taxation. it has a cost - if it is worth it for a global workforce - i don't know.

for example, was wondering if in a way it is similar with taxation policies when the company sends someone to work abroad - think how complicated is the taxation for executives ...



interesting, one to watch out.
but this is possibly taking back the top-up they had to give due to geographical location ? maybe it makes sense ...

Yes, it essentially is saying you aren't getting a silicon valley salary if you aren't in silicon valley for example. You will be paid well for your area, but it will be relative to your area.

This shouldn't really come as a surprise as this is how remote employment usually works. It gives added benefit to the likes of Facebook as it drives salaries down.

Snow Garden

CPTM wrote: »

Working from home will be the new norm for a huge amount of office jobs. Anyone who can't see that coming has their head in the sand because it benefits both employer and employee.

My wife's company have announced that they are looking to re-open the office in September on a phases basis. They said that anyone who wishes to continue working from home until the end of the year can continue to do so. One of the senior managers was very anti-WFH in the past but it looks like the mood music has completely changed and they will offer significant WFH in the future and possibly downsize the office in Galway when the lease is up in a couple of years.

Snow Garden

Captcha wrote: »

Tax reasons, you cannot work from home from another country. Although if you work 5 days a week from home, would be a pain to enforce maybe?

There are ways around the 'tax reasons'.

Captcha wrote: »

Although if you work 5 days a week from home, would be a pain to enforce maybe?

Why would it be a pain to enforce? My company has metrics to show increased productivity when everyone is WFH.

Snow Garden

Dav010 wrote: »

I’m sorry if this has been asked previously on the thread, but if WFH becomes more and more the norm for tech businesses, why would the employer restrict recruitment to the domestic market? Surely if there is no physical need for the employee to attend a particular location, job advertisements would be open anyone, anywhere who meets the required qualifications/experience? So now domestic applicants or even those already in employment are in competition with people in much lower cost economies.

You are correct. This will happen more and more.

AdamD

CPTM wrote: »

Working from home will be the new norm for a huge amount of office jobs. Anyone who can't see that coming has their head in the sand because it benefits both employer and employee.

I know I would gladly take a 10/15k (even more?) pay cut for a job which allows me to work from home 5 days a week. After taxes, commuting costs, it just isn't worth the hassle. Not only will a lot of companies allow for it, they'll be forced to do it because they will just lose their staff. Would you rather a 50k job that allows you to work from a new 4 bed house in Wexford? Or an 85k job that requires you to commute 2 hours a day from a crappy old 3 bed semi in some dodgy part of Dublin. No brainer for me. Wexford all the way.

I'm not sure this idea that everyone wants to leave Dublin rings true at all

Cal4567

The great thing for me is that this 'new way of working' most likely means choice. We hopefully are moving to a space where if you want to WFH, you will be able. If you want to be in an office, hopefully that too will still be possible.

Most of the examples I am hearing about, although it is very early days, plan to make workspaces available so team meetings can take place, either on a weekly or 2 weekly basis, or even to hold meetings with clients.

There is a good angle here for cleaners who have the ability to provide deep cleans regularly. Sounds like a potential business option. I don't think offices will disappear as some as implying, they will only adapt.

Covid 19 has only propelled sooner what was going to happen at some point.

PhilOssophy

Read the whole thread just now. A couple of thoughts:
1. The notion that with work from home every job will be shifted to India is a fake argument in my view. Plenty of companies have tried it and yes they are cheap, but as the saying goes "the bitterness of poor quality remains long after the sweetness of low price is forgotten". Look at Eir - they are a case in point and in the last year have opened call centres in Limerick I think.
2. The internet is around long enough that if this seismic shift of every job to India were going to happen, it would have happened by now. The main jobs which are shifted to India are low-paid, repeat grunt work (e.g. Amazon) but any job with any sort of value-add is remaining in the 1st world and will do so. Amazon couldn't care if some guy in India helps you sort out where your order is, but they still have 1700 employees in Ireland and many times that in the US doing the real value work.
3. People talk about IBM, they still employ 3k people 352,600 employees in the US (and 3k here) and 130,000 in India. So they still have nearly 3 times as many employees in India as they do out of it.

Just my thoughts, I could be wrong.

CPTM

Dav010 wrote: »

I’m sorry if this has been asked previously on the thread, but if WFH becomes more and more the norm for tech businesses, why would the employer restrict recruitment to the domestic market? Surely if there is no physical need for the employee to attend a particular location, job advertisements would be open anyone, anywhere who meets the required qualifications/experience? So now domestic applicants or even those already in employment are in competition with people in much lower cost economies.

That's correct - but remember there are issues which come with resources from those lower-cost economies. Language, culture, inability to ever meet them even once a fortnight/month for team-building exercises.

AdamD wrote: »

I'm not sure this idea that everyone wants to leave Dublin rings true at all

I'd never say everyone. But I would definitely say enough people to make a dent in the housing/rental market problem. Those who own a house already, or have an easy enough commute will probably not care. But nobody will convince me the same holds true for those who are spending 50%+ of their take-home pay on renting crap accommodation which has an hour commute on crappy buses which are all full by 7:45am!