government

maestroamado

If the new Government of FG + FF which i think they have signed off on are formed and run whatever term.
Does this mean that they have joined forces as they have being working together in last Government confidence etc.
Does this mean that they have joined forces and will go into future elections as one political unit.

jimgoose

The previous "Confidence and Supply" caper was basically FF in opposition but with certain understandings. This time, it'll be a coalition. Nothing necessarily permanent about it, next election it'll be all up-a-doo-dah as usual.

While I'm here, it's nice to see the Civil War is the gift that keeps on giving. Despite the election result, we see the two Centre-Right cheeks of the same arse - who are usually able to convince themselves that they are two separate, completely different parties with totally diametrically opposed ideals, although in reality they have to scrabble rather hard to find actual differences between them which consist largely of nuance and squabbling over various budget overruns - getting together and keeping the loo-lahs outside licking the windows, where they should be. The System works.

Laois_Man

No different than any other coalition - they're not merging

Although they should! But won't....ever!

jimgoose

Laois_Man wrote: »

No different than any other coalition - they're not merging

Although they should! But won't....ever!

"Your grandfather fired bullets at my grandfather, you brown envelope-flinging clodhopper!" "Your grandfather fired bullets at my grandfather, you Blueshirt West-Brit cunsha!!"

And the cosmic dance, goes on... :pac::pac::pac:

Roanmore

I think there will be another election. No other party wants to go in with them and there would be too many Independents required.

Hard to see when they would hold it though considering the state we are in?

Roanmore

Roanmore wrote: »

I think there will be another election. No other party wants to go in with them and there would be too many Independents required.

Hard to see when they would hold it though considering the state we are in?

In the event of another election and the same results emerging, should there be another and another until a majority

Harry Palmr

They'll be no election, if it turns out to be FF/FG they'll soldier on as a minority government - the opposition have no coherence and will have no genuine policy issue they can gather round with discipline.

Laois_Man

Roanmore wrote: »

I think there will be another election. No other party wants to go in with them and there would be too many Independents required.

Hard to see when they would hold it though considering the state we are in?

If the Greens and Labour dont want to go in with FG, FF or SF, what would be the point of them causing another election - who else is there?

Especially when the Greens would probably come out with less seats than they have now - and Labour a similar number!

maestroamado

jimgoose wrote: »

"Your grandfather fired bullets at my grandfather, you brown envelope-flinging clodhopper!" "Your grandfather fired bullets at my grandfather, you Blueshirt West-Brit cunsha!!"

And the cosmic dance, goes on... :pac::pac::pac:

That's more or less where i am coming from but i think we could be better.


The younger people do not seem to engage in politics and i do not blame them. After all it's them them that will be paying for the last crisis
What's happening now will add to the burden unless this new Government can perform magic.

Coillte_Bhoy

maestroamado wrote: »

That's more or less where i am coming from but i think we could be better.


The younger people do not seem to engage in politics and i do not blame them. After all it's them them that will be paying for the last crisis
What's happening now will add to the burden unless this new Government can perform magic.

We isnt that exactly why they should engage??

jimgoose

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

We isnt that exactly why they should engage??

It is. In fact, it's a bit like not bothering with smoke alarms, fire escapes and what-not because the place went on fire a few years ago.

BattleCorp

Roanmore wrote: »

I think there will be another election. No other party wants to go in with them and there would be too many Independents required.

Hard to see when they would hold it though considering the state we are in?

There will be no other election. They will form a government beteween them with the support of a few smaller players, sort of similar to what we have governing us today.

Loafing Oaf

maestroamado wrote: »

Does this mean that they have joined forces and will go into future elections as one political unit.

Depends on whether SF can sustain its current level of support. As Jim O'Callaghan and others have pointed out, it's not a sustainable political setup to have three large parties with none of them in any ongoing alliance with either of the other two. Either one of them gets pushed to the margins, or two of them form some sort of enduring partnership. If it looks going into the next election that a government will once again only be able to be formed by two out of three from FF, FG and SF, I think FF and FG will have to have some sort of pre-election pact.

Kivaro

jimgoose wrote: »

Despite the election result, we see the two Centre-Right cheeks of the same arse .....

Centre-Right me hole.
All we heard from both parties during the last election cycle was new social housing for the "homeless". It was their primary election focal point.
They forgot about the workers, which is why they both got burned in the election results. And deservedly so too.

maestroamado

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Depends on whether SF can sustain its current level of support. As Jim O'Callaghan and others have pointed out, it's not a sustainable political setup to have three large parties with none of them in any ongoing alliance with either of the other two. Either one of them gets pushed to the margins, or two of them form some sort of enduring partnership. If it looks going into the next election that a government will once again only be able to be formed by two out of three from FF, FG and SF, I think FF and FG will have to have some sort of pre-election pact.

I don't see a problem with having 3 large parties except for the parties themselves, yes we have 3 but two of them have the exact same policies so when it comes to forming a Government the only people need to be brought on-board are a few of the others.
This is normally a pretty easy sell as if i was after getting a cushy job with 5 year contract 100k a year i surely would not want to ask my neighbors to change their mind.
There are partnership Governments thorought Europe with parties with completely different mandates.
Personally i do not care who runs the country but i like it to be as fair as possible for each citizen.
Oddly enough i think FG/FF getting together likely be good, the only reason i say this is FF failed 10 years ago, i do not see things much different now than they were 10 years ago.
it will be interesting to see but i expect it will just roll on for 5 years and we will be back here in about 4 years having the same conversation.

Loafing Oaf

maestroamado wrote: »

I don't see a problem with having 3 large parties except for the parties themselves, yes we have 3 but two of them have the exact same policies so when it comes to forming a Government the only people need to be brought on-board are a few of the others.

The problem is not with having three large parties, it's with going into elections with any deal between any two of those parties apparently ruled out by one or both of the parties concerned, even when it is virtually certain it will only be possible to form a government through some form of agreement between two of them. This you get the agonising government formation process that followed both the 2016 and 2020 elections, and the certainty that at least one party will have to renege on a preelection promise. If FF and FG were to have some form of loose pact before the next election, or even just say they were open to doing a deal, the problem would go away and the electorate would know where they stood...

hatrickpatrick

The one silver lining to FFG joining a coalition is that it'll be almost impossible for them to campaign against eachother during the next election. The pretence of opposition to eachothers' policies which has maintained the revolving door for so long will be entirely neutered. This already damaged both of them in the most recent election campaign but assuming they don't actually change their policies and deal with the cost of living in a meaningful way, they will get slaughtered as a unit next time around once they can't hide behind blaming eachother.

Snow Garden

Deleted User wrote: »

In the event of another election and the same results emerging, should there be another and another until a majority

Nonsense. It was always very very rare in Ireland to get a majority one party government and we may never see it again.
Also TDs tend to be a selfish lot and do not like risking their hard won seats.

FF+FG together is the best general election result ever. They are almost identical at this point. It means we can dispel of the childish civil war nonsense and perhaps start fixing our shoddy political system.

Fred Cryton

jimgoose wrote: »

The previous "Confidence and Supply" caper was basically FF in opposition but with certain understandings. This time, it'll be a coalition. Nothing necessarily permanent about it, next election it'll be all up-a-doo-dah as usual.

While I'm here, it's nice to see the Civil War is the gift that keeps on giving. Despite the election result, we see the two Centre-Right cheeks of the same arse - who are usually able to convince themselves that they are two separate, completely different parties with totally diametrically opposed ideals, although in reality they have to scrabble rather hard to find actual differences between them which consist largely of nuance and squabbling over various budget overruns - getting together and keeping the loo-lahs outside licking the windows, where they should be. The System works.

Well better get used to it because this will be the way of things for the next 50 years. Permanent coalition, with the larger of the two parties getting the Taoiseach.



Only way SF are getting in is if they double their seats to around 70 and bring in their PBP marxist buddies to support them.



So in a nutshell, SF are never getting in lads. System really is rigged against ye, as Trump might say.

maestroamado

Snow Garden wrote: »

Nonsense. It was always very very rare in Ireland to get a majority one party government and we may never see it again.
Also TDs tend to be a selfish lot and do not like risking their hard won seats.

FF+FG together is the best general election result ever. They are almost identical at this point. It means we can dispel of the childish civil war nonsense and perhaps start fixing our shoddy political system.

If as you say they are identical why do they not join forces and let someone as the questions that are necessary for a democracy to be effective.
Then they can set out their policies after we vote them in as i do not see a big political shift and someone said here we be doing this confidence and supply for next 50 years.
As f now they are the only option but we need an alternative voice in Irish politics and SF and the others just don't cut-it they talk the talk but??

hatrickpatrick

Fred Cryton wrote: »

Well better get used to it because this will be the way of things for the next 50 years. Permanent coalition, with the larger of the two parties getting the Taoiseach.

Only way SF are getting in is if they double their seats to around 70 and bring in their PBP marxist buddies to support them.

So in a nutshell, SF are never getting in lads. System really is rigged against ye, as Trump might say.

I honestly don't see where this pessimism comes from. The two of them combined can't garner more than half of the Dáil seats between them, and this will be significantly lower next time around when people who have defaulted to switching from one to the other in order to voice dissatisfaction at election time are forced to confront the reality that they are now formally in bed together. Those voters will have no choice but to vote for someone else in order to voice the dissatisfaction they would usually voice by switching from one neoliberal party to the other.

The only realistic way to avoid this would be if FFG actually tackled the cost of living. There is no way to do this without accepting that free market capitalism and trickle down economics have failed and that government involvement in guaranteeing quality of life for citizens is essential.

Wanderer78

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I honestly don't see where this pessimism comes from. The two of them combined can't garner more than half of the Dáil seats between them, and this will be significantly lower next time around when people who have defaulted to switching from one to the other in order to voice dissatisfaction at election time are forced to confront the reality that they are now formally in bed together. Those voters will have no choice but to vote for someone else in order to voice the dissatisfaction they would usually voice by switching from one neoliberal party to the other.

The only realistic way to avoid this would be if FFG actually tackled the cost of living. There is no way to do this without accepting that free market capitalism and trickle down economics have failed and that government involvement in guaranteeing quality of life for citizens is essential.

never ever ever ever ever underestimate what way these two will swing in order to maintain power, im expecting them both to move to some degree to more centrist, even possible left with some policies, in order to maintain power. im also not convinced sf will ever get a whiff of power because of this

Shefwedfan

SF had one decent election, hardly a track record to call them a big party.

Edgware

A lot changes in five years. S.F. can go for broke by running additional candidates in constituencies where they got big votes this time but that doesnt mean they will win enough seats to have a majority or anything near it. They could end up losing seats unless they are in the 30% area in the polls. If they dont make power next time how long will they put up with McDonald as leader and looking at the rest of them there's not much there that would have her appeal with middle of the road voters

Shefwedfan

Edgware wrote: »

A lot changes in five years. S.F. can go for broke by running additional candidates in constituencies where they got big votes this time but that doesnt mean they will win enough seats to have a majority or anything near it. They could end up losing seats unless they are in the 30% area in the polls. If they dont make power next time how long will they put up with McDonald as leader and looking at the rest of them there's not much there that would have her appeal with middle of the road voters

I fully expect SF to shoot themselves in the foot many times before the next election. Just look at the track record since the election.



It still won't matter, you will have the usual people voting for them.



But will people go with another revolt vote? thats the question. SF politicians got voted in with nobody knowing them. They just voted SF to piss off FF/FG. Now the problem is these SF polticians need to actually stand up and do some work in the local area.



Like my area has voted in a SF TD who nobody knows and has done nothing in the area so far, he got in because he had SF. Now will he do anything in the next 5 years? if not then he wont get voted in next time.



To be honest I have said a few times, I would prefer SF in now, at least show them as how useless they are so we can dump them out and not have to listen to them and their supporters for the next 5 years. Unfortiuneatly Mary Lou doesn't know how to negotiate or talk to anyone part from RTE so that wont happen


Thats the question, even in 5 years will she be able to sit down with any party and make an agreement? something she hasnt been able to do now

Shefwedfan

Shefwedfan wrote: »

I fully expect SF to shoot themselves in the foot many times before the next election. Just look at the track record since the election.

They have gone up in polls since the election?

ThunbergsAreGo

Kivaro wrote: »

Centre-Right me hole.
All we heard from both parties during the last election cycle was new social housing for the "homeless". It was their primary election focal point.
They forgot about the workers, which is why they both got burned in the election results. And deservedly so too.

Still are it seems...

maestroamado

Deleted User wrote: »

They have gone up in polls since the election?

I did not hear hardly from any of them except Mary L saying that her policies were being implemented.
I think they should be asking for National Government as there is a National crisis and a great opportunity.
It would give us a insight as to who had good ideas as there be some interesting discussion.
I just like to see new thinking and get rid of our parochial parish politics as its past time.
I was not aware that polls were being carried out at the moment but these are usually wrong anyway.

They clearly do not want Government, it's far easier to sit on the sidelined and talk the talk. (i really do not blame them on that one)

The Healy Rae's have also gone missing, funny thing all of these people who had great ideas now sitting back for 5 years.

Hotblack Desiato

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

neoliberal

:rolleyes: neoliberal is essentially meaningless outside of US politics, and neither FF nor FG are remotely near the sort of politics it describes.

The only realistic way to avoid this would be if FFG actually tackled the cost of living. There is no way to do this without accepting that free market capitalism and trickle down economics have failed and that government involvement in guaranteeing quality of life for citizens is essential.

You may have noticed that we have an absolutely massive welfare system in this country.

blanch152

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

The one silver lining to FFG joining a coalition is that it'll be almost impossible for them to campaign against eachother during the next election. The pretence of opposition to eachothers' policies which has maintained the revolving door for so long will be entirely neutered. This already damaged both of them in the most recent election campaign but assuming they don't actually change their policies and deal with the cost of living in a meaningful way, they will get slaughtered as a unit next time around once they can't hide behind blaming eachother.

They will have somewhere between 40% and 70% of the vote next time out, that much is pretty certain.

Fantasies of them being wiped out or slaughtered are just that.

blanch152

Deleted User wrote: »

They have gone up in polls since the election?

What polls?

blanch152

blanch152 wrote: »

What polls?

They are up 3% in last poll released on march 29th?

Shefwedfan

blanch152 wrote: »

What polls?

The pointless poll :-)
It’s is brilliant if SF are up
Stupid thing only covers a FG and FF area of down

The only poll that counts is an election

Shefwedfan

Shefwedfan wrote: »

The pointless poll :-)
It’s is brilliant if SF are up
Stupid thing only covers a FG and FF area of down

The only poll that counts is an election

I dont disagree,but poster asked what poll since the election

Quite what you feel the above adds to the discussion given the line of conversation,is perplexing

Shefwedfan

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I dont disagree,but poster asked what poll since the election

Quite what you feel the above adds to the discussion given the line of conversation,is perplexing

I don’t see what the poll adds

It’s constantly fired out as some sort of guide, it’s not. It’s pointless and I have always said that. The only poll is the election so that is what the discussion should focus on

It’s worth pointing out you brought the poll into conversation, nobody else. So why do you think it’s relevant? Especially as we had an election less than 3 months ago

Shefwedfan

Shefwedfan wrote: »

I don’t see what the poll adds

It’s constantly fired out as some sort of guide, it’s not. It’s pointless and I have always said that. The only poll is the election so that is what the discussion should focus on

It’s worth pointing out you brought the poll into conversation, nobody else. So why do you think it’s relevant? Especially as we had an election less than 3 months ago

If you think opioion polls are irrelevant to politic discussion...that is a view your free to hold,i suspect you are near alone in that view,but your entitled to it

Personally i felt this particular poll,taken as epidemic was taking hold/weeks into some restrictions was relevent anyway?,

But i guess we have to disagree on what counts as factual info surronding political.discussion as most discussion simply boils down to differing worldviews shouting at each other otherwise

blanch152

Deleted User wrote: »

I dont disagree,but poster asked what poll since the election

Quite what you feel the above adds to the discussion given the line of conversation,is perplexing

I still don’t know what poll you are talking about, which company, which newspaper etc.

blanch152

blanch152 wrote: »

I still don’t know what poll you are talking about, which company, which newspaper etc.

Ive given you the date and % increase....google is your friend mate

Under rules,afaik im.under no obligation to provide links

(Iirc fg were up.12% )

costacorta

Kivaro wrote: »

Centre-Right me hole.
All we heard from both parties during the last election cycle was new social housing for the "homeless". It was their primary election focal point.
They forgot about the workers, which is why they both got burned in the election results. And deservedly so too.

And you think SF will look after the workers ? They are the ones on about homelessness and housing yet they had a great election so your post doesn’t make sense!!

Phoebas

Deleted User wrote: »

Under rules,afaik im.under no obligation to provide links

blanch152

Deleted User wrote: »

Ive given you the date and % increase....google is your friend mate

Under rules,afaik im.under no obligation to provide links

(Iirc fg were up.12% )

Ok, found it now.

Combined FF/FG support at 52%, probably the most important finding in the context of government formation.

blanch152

blanch152 wrote: »

Ok, found it now.

Combined FF/FG support at 52%, probably the most important finding in the context of government formation.

Dunno why this gif isnt working right

maestroamado

Deleted User wrote: »

Ive given you the date and % increase....google is your friend mate

Under rules,afaik im.under no obligation to provide links

(Iirc fg were up.12% )

The poll is there beginning of March, i out of Country for a week at that time so i was not aware of this.
But your adding weight to my point, we are all saying we want to change.

Why are SF not saying they want to be part of Government on the basis of election result and as you say this poll adds weight to their claim.
The simple fact is they want to jump up and down but when it comes down to it they have not got what it takes.
If they want to be taken seriously they should insist on being part of Government. SF are not doing this, They are in LOCKDOWN.

maestroamado

maestroamado wrote: »

The poll is there beginning of March, i out of Country for a week at that time so i was not aware of this.
But your adding weight to my point, we are all saying we want to change.

Why are SF not saying they want to be part of Government on the basis of election result and as you say this poll adds weight to their claim.
The simple fact is they want to jump up and down but when it comes down to it they have not got what it takes.
If they want to be taken seriously they should insist on being part of Government. SF are not doing this, They are in LOCKDOWN.

Tbf the only person i seen not wanting em,in at moment is varadkar

Which he is entitled to do so,but by tangaling taoiseach job infront of martin,he is essemtially damning FF to being wiped out sf/soc dems and more right leaning ff support goto fg,would seem obvious outcome


A great bit of political skullduggery....if i could attach gif properly,i would include a hat-tip one to varadkar

BattleCorp

maestroamado wrote: »

Why are SF not saying they want to be part of Government on the basis of election result and as you say this poll adds weight to their claim.
The simple fact is they want to jump up and down but when it comes down to it they have not got what it takes.
If they want to be taken seriously they should insist on being part of Government. SF are not doing this, They are in LOCKDOWN.

Who the fcuk would want to be in government given what's coming down the line? There'll be a recession that will make 2008 - 2012 look like a walk in the park.

SF will sit on the sidelines for the next few years. FFG will get hammered at the next election similar to the way FF got hammered because the economy will have gone to sh1t and national debt will skyrocket.

Then SF will have their chance, which will be short-lived because their mouths are writing cheques that they can't cash.

costacorta

costacorta wrote: »

And you think SF will look after the workers ? They are the ones on about homelessness and housing yet they had a great election so your post doesn’t make sense!!

Well, the homeless situation has changed dramatically with the hundreds of short term let’s coming back on stream.

BattleCorp

BattleCorp wrote: »

Who the fcuk would want to be in government given what's coming down the line? There'll be a recession that will make 2008 - 2012 look like a walk in the park.

SF will sit on the sidelines for the next few years. FFG will get hammered at the next election similar to the way FF got hammered because the economy will have gone to sh1t and national debt will skyrocket.

Then SF will have their chance, which will be short-lived because their mouths are writing cheques that they can't cash.

Tbf noone fully knows what coming down line econmically....yes tax take,will be well down and expense up

But never before has consumption been withdrawn from an econmy in way it is now,


(vaguest thing,resembling it,i think on...would be earthquake struck areas,which shut down for rescue/recovery etc,but nothing like this length and most recover reasonably well,as governments kick start econmies to begin rebuilding,which is where this comparison ends,if ecb insist on austrity)

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well, the homeless situation has changed dramatically with the hundreds of short term let’s coming back on stream.

But surely an econmic/tourism.recovery over next 18 months would put us back to square 1??

Surely now is time to get ahead of the problem

BattleCorp

Deleted User wrote: »

Tbf noone fully knows what coming down line econmically....yes tax take,will be well down and expense up

But never before has consumption been withdrawn from an econmy in way it is now,


(vaguest thing,resembling it,i think on...would be earthquake struck areas,which shut down for rescue/recovery etc,but nothing like this length and most recover reasonably well,as governments kick start econmies to begin rebuilding,which is where this comparison ends,if ecb insist on austrity)

You are correct in that we don't fully know what's coming down the line but I think everyone can agree that it's bad. The only question is how bad.

Recovery won't be on par with an earthquake as earthquakes tend to strike in one area and don't really affect the rest of the world. The virus has struck devastating blows to nearly every economy in the whole world which is unprecedented.

I'd love to be wrong but I think we are in for a long, bumpy ride (and not the fun kind either).

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

But surely an econmic/tourism.recovery over next 18 months would put us back to square 1??

Surely now is time to get ahead of the problem

Use hotels and registered guesthouses for tourists and houses built for private use for families. Enforce the building regulations. Tourism and holidays won’t be very high on people’s lists of priorities for some time.

Idbatterim

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In the event of another election and the same results emerging, should there be another and another until a majority

Ffg would lose more seats, that's why they dont meant a re run , it's also mm last shot at the big time... and varadkar wants his taoiseach pension, which he is very close too